is Loving China.. considering learning Mandarian
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CKGT held up well today, I was surprised, but it is still not liquid enough for me to trade just yet. Loving NEP's liquidity though, hope it stays that way for a bit.
NEP Day trading activity..
For those interested in day trading momentum stocks..
I'm done for the day, easy money.. 40 trades $1,458 net P&L
Average buy price $8.912 Average sell price $9.016
Time,Symb,Side,Price,Qty,Route,Broker,Account,Type,Cloid
10:12:56,NEP,B,8.77,2000,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000342
10:17:04,NEP,B,8.67,2000,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000354
10:42:10,NEP,B,8.7,200,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000504
10:55:37,NEP,B,8.79,1800,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000592
11:11:06,NEP,S,8.89,387,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:11:13,NEP,S,8.89,400,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:11:14,NEP,S,8.89,200,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:11:17,NEP,S,8.89,800,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:11:18,NEP,S,8.89,500,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:11:18,NEP,S,8.89,500,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:11:18,NEP,S,8.89,200,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:11:18,NEP,S,8.89,400,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:11:19,NEP,S,8.89,500,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:11:19,NEP,S,8.89,613,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:11:19,NEP,S,8.89,1500,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000596
11:46:34,NEP,B,9.05,700,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000972
11:46:34,NEP,B,9.05,100,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000972
11:46:34,NEP,B,9.05,100,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000972
11:46:34,NEP,B,9.05,100,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000972
11:46:38,NEP,B,9.05,1000,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000972
11:57:18,NEP,B,9.1,100,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228001019
11:59:24,NEP,B,9.1,500,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228001019
11:59:32,NEP,B,9.1,400,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228001019
11:59:54,NEP,B,9.1,600,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228001019
12:00:32,NEP,B,9.1,400,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228001019
12:01:16,NEP,B,9.06,2000,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228000995
12:07:03,NEP,B,8.95,2000,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228001112
13:50:21,NEP,S,9.11,665,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:50:34,NEP,S,9.11,400,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:54:11,NEP,S,9.11,165,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:54:12,NEP,S,9.11,100,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:54:12,NEP,S,9.11,976,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:54:13,NEP,S,9.11,300,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:54:20,NEP,S,9.11,1000,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:55:16,NEP,S,9.11,100,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:58:31,NEP,S,9.11,100,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:58:58,NEP,S,9.11,300,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:59:27,NEP,S,9.11,780,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:59:38,NEP,S,9.11,850,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
13:59:40,NEP,S,9.11,2264,EDGX,,18138834,Margin,L091228002409
NEP buy $8.95 (8K $9.04)
NEP buy $9.06 2K
NEP buy $9.10 2K
NEP buy $9.05 2K
NEP sold $8.89
Net P&L $898
Waiting for it to trade under middle bolie for reentry on 2 min chart
NEP $8.79 2K (6K @ $8.74)
NEP $8.67 2K
NEP $8.77 starter 2K
I'm liking the liquidity and looking to find a trader.
NEP whats the cliff notes?
CKGT $2.44 technical support (fails going lower)
Joe, by mid next year I'm hoping these companies will have another option, right now they really don't.. it's coming though, we'll talk after the New Year..
I think you'll be doing without LPIH shares if you continue to wait for $1.10/share... IMHO
Then the train will simply leave without me and I'll wait on the next one.
You feeling the withdrawals to huh?
We need to put that in the Ibox..
LPIH If they are not going to distribute shares, or intend to sell them, then why the 4.9% clause and registration statement? You only have to wait 6 months under Rule 144, why the expense of a registration statement? Why the need for escrow and 4.9% provision with instructions on DWAC?
Any individual owning more than 5% becomes a beneficial owner and must file a Schedule 13D with the SEC. These guys don't even want to disclose beneficial ownership..
I have been doing this a long time.. in almost every instance I have seen both a registration statement filed and a 4.9% clause, the PIPE investors are unloading their shares as fast as they can be DWAC'd into their accounts. The quicker they sell them, the more they can unload under the 4.9% provision.
I'm going to wait for the EFFECT filing and the $1.10 price of the PIPE shares. For now they will be working to gain as much altitude for the PIPE guys.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-schedule-13-d.asp
You must be new to this board..
Take that POS elsewhere...
I'm not going anywhere..
I'm just not discussing my pre-buy strategy on popular stocks mentioned on this board. The main reason is simple, if I'm looking at a stock it is because I think it is going to pull back.
As a trader I am looking for pull backs so I can play the volatility. Since most people are motivated by whether or not they own stock in a particular issue, my comments will most likely run against the grain here.
I've had many people ask me about my strategies and I decided to share them. Then when I do, some are not so happy to hear them.
I'm not going to stop sharing knowledge with this board. I'm just not going to discuss my pre-buy side strategies.
If I make a good trade I will talk about it after the fact and people can ask me my reasoning behind it at that point in time.
But to make my life easier moving forward, I did ignore 3 people lol..
My apologies to the board..
Since posting my personal strategies before hand (which is something I rarely do) seems to be upsetting those individuals who have positions in stocks that I feel, by my strategy, may offer better entries than their current prices, I'm going to quit.
My intention all along was to provide a different point of view and show a different methodology in buying stocks.
I do not need to own every China small cap. My strategy sometimes does in fact cause me to miss profitable opportunities. However, it also has allowed me to retain over 95% of my profits above principal.
I will no longer give my opinions publicly about where I think certain stocks will go on the buy side until I have bought them.
Since some folks don't like my analysis.. I'm just not going to give it anymore. Folks can PM me if they are looking for my opinions, but I'm done publicly sharing my thoughts pre buy side.
I don't necessarily agree with the author either as I do the same thing. But I think generally speaking it is an accurate statement.
Keep in mind CSP, we are the exception in most cases. The individuals who have mastered the art of combining the two.
I'm basing that on the $1.10 purchase price, the amount of shares to dispose and the fact that a lot of effort was made both to prevent more than 4.9% ownership through the use of escrow which keeps them from having to file anything with the SEC (they don't want anyone knowing what they are doing) and the effort to file a registration statement when they could simply wait 6 months and utilize Rule 144.
An opinion letter is far more cheaper than a registration statement.
Conclusion.. they intend to sell. So my strategy is to begin buying it when they are done or close to done.
If I am wrong, I loose no money.. If I am right, I make money.
It is that simple..
Yes, it changed after the slide show came out and I got info from the company on the JV that helped with my analysis.
My over all predictions haven't changed all that much though. I said $.20's and in my previous post I stated..
I don't know what compliance costs will be or overhead added by parent.. so figure maybe 10% lower, high $.20's ??
Are You a Trader or an Investor?
Are you investing in a stock or a company? That may sound like a confusing question, but it is an important distinction and can get you in trouble if you don’t know the answer?
First, let’s be clear that either answer is okay. The problem arises when investors confuse one with the other or start out investing in a stock, then change their minds when something goes wrong.
Let me explain the difference between investing in a stock and investing in a company.
If you buy a stock:
# You are buying because you sense a price movement for some reason (through technical analysis, market/sector news, and so forth
# You are interested in profiting from a price movement and, most likely, selling and moving on to another stock See Tools of Fundamental Analysis.
# You have no real interest in the company behind the stock other than it is in the right place at the right time
If you invest in a company:
# You have done a thorough analysis of the company and believe it has long-term growth potential
# You understand what the company does and its position in its market
# If the price drops, you know why and can determine whether this is a short-term situation or a change that will have a long-term impact on the stock’s price
A person who buys a stock is more precisely a trader, while a person who buys a company is an investor.
A trader may not hold a stock very long or may hold it a long time, depending on its performance. An investor buys a company with the intent of holding on to the stock for a long time.
When things Go Bad
As long as the stock’s price is performing well, neither the trader, nor the investor has much of a problem. However, when the stock’s price starts falling, that’s another matter.
The smart trader has an escape plan in place to prevent small loses from becoming big loses. The trader has no emotional attachment to the stock, so getting rid of the loser at a predetermined point is easy.
Many traders find that dumping a stock when it has fallen 7% or 8%, a good way to keep loses small. If you set your sell level higher, you are in danger of letting a normal market blip trip your sell signal, only to see the stock and market rebound. See Understanding Stop Loss Orders.
The problem arises when the trader decides they really like this stock and don’t want to give it up so easily. In other words, they’ve quit being traders and become investors.
The Problem
The problem is they usually don’t know enough about the company to make intelligent decisions about whether to hold the stock or let it go. They are no longer smart traders and they aren’t smart investors.
Any decision they make as an investor at this point will be a guess.
The investor is probably better off when things go bad, but only if you have the courage of your convictions. If the stock price drops, reassess the company and the market.
Did you miss something? Has something changed? Or is now the time to add to your holdings?
Don’t jump on the “sell at 7% loss” rule if you truly believe in the company’s long-term potential. If you become a trader at this point, you are robbing your future.
Conclusion
It is okay to be either a trader or an investor, just don’t try to be both with the same stock.
http://stocks.about.com/od/tradingbasics/a/Invtrad013105.htm
LPIH Purchase Agreement..
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111817/000101376209001973/ex101.htm
ARTICLE 2.
PURCHASE AND SALE
2.1. Purchase and Sale. Upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth herein, and in accordance with applicable law, the Company agrees to sell to the Investors, and each Investor agrees to purchase from the Company, on the Closing Date, the number of Securities for the purchase price set forth next to such Investor’s name on Schedule A attached hereto (the “Original Purchase Price). At or prior to the Closing each Investor shall wire the portion of the Original Purchase Price set forth opposite such Investor’s name on Schedule A to the Closing Escrow Agent, who shall release the Original Purchase Price to the Company upon receipt of instructions from the Investors and the Company as provided in the Escrow Agreement. The Company shall cause the Securities to be issued to the Investors upon the release of the Original Purchase Price to the Company by the Closing Escrow Agent pursuant to the terms of the Escrow Agreement. Except as expressly provided in the Certificate of Designation and the Warrants, an Investor shall not be entitled to convert the Series A Preferred Stock into shares of Common Stock or to exercise the Warrants to the extent that such conversion or exercise would result in beneficial ownership by the Investor and its Affiliates of more than 4.9% of the then outstanding number of shares of Common Stock on such date after giving effect to such conversion or exercise. For the purposes of this Agreement beneficial ownership shall be determined in accordance with Section 13(d) of the 1934 Act, and Regulation 13d-3 thereunder. The limitation set forth in this Section 2.1.2 is referred to as the “4.9% Limitation.”
This clause is added in most cases to make sure the purchaser at no time becomes an affiliate. this insures that the purchasers stock will at all times be free trading.
Next we want to look at the terms.....
You have escrow set up.. stock converts at $1.10 per share
4.11. Escrow Shares.
(a) At the Closing, upon the execution of the Securities Escrow Agreement , the Make Good Pledgors shall deliver to the Securities Escrow Agent a stock certificate or stock certificates evidencing an aggregate of 13,499,274 shares of Common Stock (collectively, the “Escrow Shares”). All Escrow Shares shall be accompanied by stock powers executed in blank with signature medallion guaranteed.
Glen, I'll wait around $1.30 to start buying.
LPIH Weren't they required to file a Form S-1?
There is one thing I know about the OTC, there are very few real institutional investors. Most are probably a determent to the company than an asset. Some strong arm their way into a company by putting a choke hold on their market.
Now, let me be very clear on record here, I have ZERO knowledge of LPIH. I have done no in depth due diligence whatsoever, only basic earnings and assets, so my opinions are based on no facts whatsoever.
My question would be this, If the PIPE investors had a long term horizon, why did they have the company file a Form S-1..
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111817/000101376209002379/forms1.htm
...just 2 months after completing their Form D...
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111817/000101376209002041/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml
Hell, they only need to wait 6 months under Rule 144.. whats the rush? Why put the company through that extra expense of filing? It's between $35K and $50K in attorney's fees plus auditors fees. Not to mention having to file one so dang close to your annual report? Man, that is a lot of work lol..
I have no idea what their plans are, but sure seems like a lot of effort to go through if your planning on holding on to your holdings huh?
Gotta think out of the box on this one. As a trader I'm going to be watching this one closely and counting volume and daily averages. I love the long term prospects, but I think I can get it cheaper if I am just patient.
Sometimes these PIPE stock can be a lot of fun for traders to if the PIPE guys play ball and not shove em down our throats like the FEED PIPE guys did which killed interest.
They are going to try and unload before the next report is due... watch... that is my opinion. They will need that interest building in to earnings to help liquidity. I'm guessing here..
Unless they put a clause in the PIPE agreement against it, the PIPE investors can short their shares ahead of the registration statement given the right broker support. Meaning, they could already be selling them now and then just cover the short once the legends are removed.
Happens all the time, especially in PIPE deals.
It was brought to my attention by a third party. I checked it out, did the due and then bought a butt load of it all the way to about $.14 per share. Some days I was 100% of the volume lol... and the rest is history.
My actual first buy was 10,000 shares at $.009 lol. Needless to say, taxes are going to suck for me this year haha!
1/29/2009 SIAF BOUGHT 10000 SHARES OF SIAF AT $0.009 ($7.45) $0.00 ($97.45)
I'm hoping for a sell the news scenario. I bled off a decent chunk into the recent rally hoping that is the case. I could be wrong though, just as I could be wrong about CKGT (lol!).
Someone has been buying the heck out of SIAF though, I had no trouble bleeding out over 35,000 shares. I still have a rather sizable chunk though so no worries in either scenario.
At any rate.. I'll be sitting around $1.08 and $1 wishing and hoping lol. The float is small, so if demand is high enough it might just keep running up to the CC and never look back.
If it does keep running, I can always put that cash into CKGT (if it dips)
SIAF my 2010 estimate..
$29.4M Sales
$17M Net/53.2M Out
$.32 EPS My DD breaks down as follows. I don't know what compliance costs will be or overhead added by parent.. so figure maybe 10% lower, high $.20's ?? The numbers also don't include fishery which may, or may not come on line in 2010, but that could add another $4M to the bottom line.
Wholesale will stay about the same. Retail will bring in additional $6.5M. HU plantation set to double to $4M with addition of dryers. JV revenue comes on line $3.5M.
Dairy 61.5% Dairy(2)38% HU 70% JV 65.7% Total
15400000 6500000 4000000 3500000 29400000
9471000 2470000 2800000 2299500 17040500
0.32031015
I'm only a trader...yada yada yada IMO, your MO is becoming very clear.
Sorry you feel that way. Just trying to give an honest view from one traders perspective. You are free to respect my personal opinions or not, but do not turn this into a personal issue. Emotion has no place in the market, neither as an investor.. or a trader.
I've done a lot of research into China.. and this type of friction is a purely American trait and why our Country is so jacked up. If we were both Chinese, we would respect each others opinions and accept that we have differences. There would be no friction or negative undertones.
Anyway, I hope, most of us make it to the end of Monday with, approximately, the same amount of hair they began it.
That is why I am a trader, I don't like losing hairs lol!
Are You a Trader or an Investor?
http://stocks.about.com/od/tradingbasics/a/Invtrad013105.htm
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&source=hp&q=diffrence+betwen+investor+and+trader&aq=f&aqi=&oq=&fp=52e8f388e5caca67
I know that you are the wrong guy to talk to about this since you probably never hold any stock longer than a few days anyway but it's of course an issue for all the other guys out there.
You are obviously an investor, I am a trader. You look at fundamentals (raw financial data), I look at charts (market emotion). We have two completely different strategies.
I'm giving my perspective as a trader and you are giving your perspective as an investor. People reading these posts need to be able to understand the difference. Trying to argue different strategies is doing nothing but confusing those who may not be as experienced.
The fact that I even trade CKGT means that I like the fundamental aspects. Even after this restatement, I still remain bullish on the Company. But, I have a different strategy of how to make money.
You buy a stock and hold it in your own account in order to profit. I let the market hold the stock and profit from the liquidity.
I'm going to make money on CKGT whether it goes up or down because I am making money from the liquidity.
My words may be nails across a chalk board in regards to CKGT to a long, but I would be willing to bet most "traders" feel the exact way I do.
We are two breeds of market participants and as such we will always see things differently at certain times.
With that said, I am slightly irritated at being called a "basher" in general. This will be my last post on this subject.
There are always other stocks. Maybe it is the trader in me, but where most people focus on making money, my main focus is preserving capital. I look at profit as an unexpected bonus to my capital preservation.
There are some folks who now see me as some kind of CKGT basher. They don't seem to understand my philosophy. I was IR and a stock promoter. It was my job to understand market emotion. It is what I am good at.
I'm looking at this purely from an emotional standpoint. If I was sitting on profit in a stock and an event transpired that might cause uncertainty, my bet will always be the "better safe than sorry" route.
Some folks simply refuse to see this aspect and want to stick to raw fundamentals. There is nothing wrong with selling a stock out of caution. If the market proves that you were wrong in being cautious you can always buy back in. If the market proves you right you can then buy back in.
The stock isn't going to run on Fridays news, there is a better chance of it selling off some. Best case, you can buy it back cheaper, maybe even average lower. Worst case, you buy back at the same or slightly higher price than you sold it..
You did the right thing IMHO, never marry or fall in love with a stock. It's your money, not theirs.
We see things differently I guess, so we can agree to disagree. You only want to look at the positive and seem to blindly ignore the negative aspects of the restatement.
The purpose of this forum is to share ALL aspects and opinions, negative or positive so people reading can draw there own informed opinons. This isn't Burger King, you can't have it your way.
This is also not a "us versus them" debate. I am merely sharing my point of view.. and you yours. The market will ultimately decide and nether you nor I will be able to change that.
I have never said I "don't like the company" it is in fact one of my main stocks in my watch list. I'm not as bullish on these cactus cigarettes as some are, but I still like the company.
But it was not a "mere accounting issues". As I said previously, my sister in law is a director (head of) a audit department that is PCAOB registered (public companies). She told me after looking at the information that this (from an accounting standpoint) was a major miss.
You keep bringing this back around to some fundamentals argument. I could honestly CARE LESS about the fundamental argument aspect of this other than learning from it from a business point of view.
I have said this NUMEROUS times now.. it isn't what you, or I think. It is what the market thinks and by reading various posts on message boards, speaking with people in emails etc..
There are more people not happy with this than who view it as a "non event".
I have taken your position before, stubbornly sticking to my fundamental view of something only to have the market hand me my ass. This is the OTC.. not the NASDAQ, you do not have the psychological or emotional discipline of the higher exchanges.
I am not "bashing" CKGT, I am simply sharing a different point of view from a "traders" perspective. Yes, my view of something is always SHORT TERM and I believe this will impact the company short term.
Don't fall in love with these stocks.. you don't seem to like but one outcome on this and trust me, their are several scenarios that can take place Monday. I do not own the stock so therefore I have no emotional attachment. As a trader I won't be standing in line to buy the stock come Monday because of the uncertainty involved. For those that might be unhappy with this news and sell Monday.. the bid support will be weaker than normal over this uncertainty.
That is all I am saying.. I'm talking about the human emotion factor of the news and your wanting to talk raw fundamentals.. it is apples and oranges.
I'm thinking at least the 50 day @ $2.00. We shall see I guess. Merry Christmas btw..
The first filing was published at 11:47 AM
The news that was released at 8:30 AM did not state the impact on EPS. This one sentence was carefully thrown in to end the report on a good note.
This adjustment has no impact on the company’s cash flow or income from operations.
So, your right, the news was out at 8:30, however I doubt many people understood the impact it would have.
Look at the chart and notice the time the selling started. The first sell off came at the open based on the news. The second sell off came after the filings were released. keep in mind this was Christmas eve and many people either did not trade today, or left early.
Just something to consider. I believe over the weekend this will have time to weigh on peoples minds. If the stocks begins to gap down on open, you will most likely see a panic sell off. If the stock opens down on light volume you might be okay.