Poker, here's a link to a chart that gives the performance of the S&P over Thanksgiving week from 1989 to present.

http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

Tax,

The driver's insurance was inadequate, but it did pay for a new bike and some of the medical bills. My company paid the remainder.

OT - Having been self employed most of my working life, I always paid for heath insurance even as my premiums seemed to rise exponentially. Anyway, I always lamented the fact of how much I spent over the years since I had never filed a claim. Until last year, that is, when I was hit by a car while riding my bicycle. That little incident racked up $90,000 dollars in medical bills that was mostly paid by my insurance. Still paying for insurance but regretting it less

How nuts is this market? The Hulbert Digest, which has been ranking investment letters since 1980, has a new leader in the all time risk adjusted category - Charles Allmon's Growth Stock Outlook. I guess the name is a slight misnomer since Allmon went entirely to *cash* in 1986 with the exception of retaining three stocks! Unbelievable. He was buried during the bull but has risen like a phoenix. Cash is king, who woulda guessed it.

Link to article: http://tinyurl.com/ccmdw7

Who has been in charge the past eight years? Do you really think *anyone* could do worse? Geez, Bush and the Republicans have stripped this country of it's weath, stability and dignity. *Any* new administration is going to be an improvement over the feckless one we have now.

Hi THG,

I don't disagree with you one bit regarding the scope, breath and seriousness of the financial crisis. I remember watching the final plunge of the dot com melt down in real time, and it was nerve wracking to say the least. However, it's been my experience that when the shrill wail of the doom and gloomers reaches a crescendo that some sort of bottom is forming. That's not to say that what follows won't be a protracted period of going nowhere, but bottoms happen just as tops do.

Zab, you are absolutely correct. The only problem with a "throw the bums out" campaign is that nobody wants to throw their *own* bum out. Maybe this time it will be different, but don't hold your breath.

You know the bottom is close when the prophets of doom get worked up. Just like the faux year 2000 Armageddon, the survivalists and the religiously impaired work themselves into a lather - happens every time. The reverse barometer effect's signal to noise ratio is on the rise. Capitulation is at hand.

Loaded up the boat - SSO, UYG, QLD and PFE. I've lost nothing in this downturn since I've been in cash (5% cds) for the past nine months. Now my 401Ks are fully vested. I might miss the bottom, but in a year or so I'll probably wish I bought even more.

Didn't mean to offend since I really appreciate your site. But I'm glad she's gone

Mark...

Bullwinkle,

I'm really getting tired of having to scroll past that skank - how about a new photo that emphasizes fact rather than fiction. Anyway, if you think this gal is hot then you need to move to Alaska, rent a trailer and start frying up moose burgers.

Well, the funds may be buying, but who's buying the funds? From CrossCurrents:

The latest stats for mutual funds were released on Thursday and to put it mildly, the numbers were shocking. For only the sixth time since 1988, August witnessed outflows and they were substantial. About $12.3 billion exited funds and $14 billion was removed from funds that invest primarily in the U.S. This was the greatest outflow since September 2002 but somehow, prices rose. The last five times there were outflows in August, the Dow was lower each time, averaging a 7.24% loss....

I'm not a wave watcher/counter, but my own work suggests that the current conditions are indicating a bull trap.

Yes, this seems to be the Wizard of Fizz. His previous prognostications included the "black hole" crash prediction that, naturally, never panned out. Anyway, when the sky doesn't fall it's likely he'll just fade to black like he did the last time. Best usage of his advice - reverse barometer.

Jerry, Shepherd offers a few compelling arguments for the crash scenario:

http://www.jasmts.com/promonews/

Self promotion? Yes. Hyperbole? A bit. But overall I think he enumerates the bear case quite convincingly.

OT: Well, homeowners downtown should be - just check Foreclosure.com for 92101. BTW, there is a gas station on Pacific Hwy that sucks the tourists in due to it's proximity to car rental row - I think regular is over $3.30.

Bear, the housing numbers for SD that I follow sure don't indicate an uptrend. And last month looks like an anomalistic blip Almost flat, really.

http://housing-watch.com/regionview.aspx?city=San-Diego

Tetres, long time no see! How is everything at T-Waves? And yes, I agree that a down wave is on the immediate horizon.

A trend change here on the QID would make sense when examining this decline from a historic standpoint:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=17617847

How many days of a bounce does this presage? Who knows, but I'll bet the QID uptrend will return sooner rather than later.

AMGN looking tasty if it holds $63 - any takers?

Here is Jim Shepherd's latest missive:

http://www.jasmts.com/promonews/

His model has been close to signaling "Critical Mass" for several years now. Perhaps his time has finally come?

Deconstructing Jim Cramer - great read:


http://www.slate.com/id/2158497/fr/flyout

Things that make you go hmmmmmm. Found this chart on Ticker Sense this morning: The length of time it has been since we had a one-day 2% decline on the S&P 500. As Frank Zappa would have exclaimed, Zut Alors! The longest run since 1928.

http://tickersense.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2declines.jpg

Potential for coldest 30 day stretch in 50 years? Oil and gas are suffering now, but if this long term forecast comes to fruition the oversold OIH, USO, etc could soar.

(State College, PA - January 8, 2007) - The unseasonably warm winter experienced by much of the country is likely to "turn on a dime," in the words of AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi.

Bastardi said that the weather pattern from mid-January through mid-February has a chance to mimic the winters of 1965-66 and 1957-58, each of which ended cold and stormy after a warm start. A worst-case scenario would be if this winter plays out as did the winter of 1977-1978.

Similar to this year, 1977-1978 was a winter with a waning El Nino. After a tepid start, the second half of the winter was noted for its cold and remarkable storminess, including back-to-back-to-back blizzards in the Northeast.

"Those who think that winter 2006-2007 is going to remain mild are in for a shock," said Bastardi. "Winter is likely to come with a vengeance. A week from now, we'll start seeing truly cold air across much of the country, and we expect this change to last."

Added Bastardi, "Whether we end up with seasonably cold weather, or something far worse, remains to be seen. There are indications that this winter could parallel severe winters of the past. Even should we not see an extremely cold and snowy conclusion to winter, you can be sure that by the end of the month, when those in the Northeast are shoveling out their driveways and sidewalks, the mild weather we're experiencing now will be a distant memory."

Where Will Winter Go From Here?
The first signs of change will be noticed this week. A passing shot of cold air will knock temperatures down to typical January levels in the northeastern part of the country for a few days. Temperatures will return to unseasonably warm levels by the latter part of week and last into early next week. The seeds for the more-lasting change, however, will be planted in the western part of the country.

Arctic air from western Canada will pour southward into the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Plains this week, and this will mark the beginning of a true winter weather pattern that will encompass much of the nation over the next couple of weeks. The core of the coldest air by the latter part of the week will be centered in the Rockies and northern Plains, and the arrival of the cold air will mean another round of accumulating snow for Denver later this week.

The cold air will slowly push southward and eastward from this weekend into early next week and will likely arrive in the eastern part of the country by the middle of next week. Much of the nation will then have a cold weather pattern for the second half of the month.

Long-range forecasting expert Bastardi points out that it's too early to say with certainty that the change in the weather pattern will be long-lasting or produce heavy amounts of snow. However, he believes that if the weather pattern reaches its full potential, the dramatic change from warmth to cold could result in "one of the top-five coldest 30-day stretches in the past half century."


To speak with a meteorologist about this story, call the AccuWeather.com 24/7 media line, (814) 235-8710.

AD, actually I'm currently sitting on my hands since I think the longs may still get a muted holiday pop. However, my recent QID trades have been profitable. Ninety percent of my trading involves QID/QLD, and I'll be tilting my hedge towards QID in a big way soon

Insider selling goes exponential - follow the link and scroll down a bit to the chart. Yowzaa!!

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/NEWMAN.html

Interesting quote on the Big Picture yesterday:

"I don't care about the numbers, the economic data, whether Iraq is in a Civil war, if the President gets impeached, who controls congress, what a company does, whether we fall into a recession or if China buys Europe and turns it into a Disney theme park. My world is defined by what I see on my four 20 inch monitors in front of me. Everything else is noise."

The Doctor's take: Feedback loops such as this always lead to uncontrolled distortion

Ominous looking Index convergence - look at this chart from Dr Joe's public chart list at Stockcharts. The more I stare at this, the more I want to pull the trigger on a large chunk of QID. Thoughts?

http://tinyurl.com/y7lo5u

Guru = Marty at StockTiming ?

StockTiming: Reality Check - Pulte Homes earnings drop by 52%, stock goes up; GM gains 10% in three weeks even though AutoNation plans to cut orders to the big three auto makers by 30% because of the large backlog of unsold vehicles. Irrational exuberance seems to be once again establishing a foothold in the American psyche.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

AD, the scary component of the new home sales figure is the continued usage of interest only/exotic mortgages - I believe that the NY Times reported it's still running over 35%.

Chart: Housing and S&P Correlation over 10 years. Here's an interesting chart from a SoCal blog that plots the HMI vs the S&P - Is S&P 600 on the way?

http://www.piggington.com/s_p_and_hmi

RE: QID, I'm in @ 56.50

Speaking of Canadian Trusts, take a look at AAV - it's close to a five year low and has been returning around 15%. Folks who have invested here during the oil/ngas highs are crying, but this could be an interesting longer term play.

Newly2b - Interpreting the news via chosen context

Even the international media filters and spins the news based on national sensibilities. In my opinion, however, at least the Europeans get the news without the vaseline on the lens softness that we in the US seem to get. BTW, check out the different covers of a recent Time Magazine - makes you wonder.


http://bsalert.com/artsearch.php?fn=2&as=1383&dt=1

Regarding CHK, AAV, NGAS and oil in general, John Mauldin's current "Outside the Box" newsletter presents and interesting geo-political take on oil, energy and long term pricing.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb.aspx

The BullandBearWise index has dipped below 40 for only the second time in a year:

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/IndexHistoryChart.asp

And the dumb money is still buying over at Ameritrade:

http://www.ameritradeindex.com/amtd.html

Enjoy the jampaalooza while you still can

Anyone nibbling on NGAS or CHK at these levels? EOM.

OT Slinky,

I still have the diagnostics *cassette* from my 1981 IBM PC. And as to records, do you remember when CDs first appeared - the industry pundits claimed that it would take a decade or more to replace records. So much for the power of prognostication...it seems as if records just disappeared over night. Predicting the market, fashion, science, or any other non-linear system is unreliable at best. And I'm still waiting for my flying car that Popular Mechanics said I'd have by 1985

From a contrarian standpoint the sentiment chart seems to be flashing a buy, but check out the correlation between mutual fund inflows, outflows and the S&P. With all the conflicting signals, sitting on your hands and waiting for market direction may be the prudent course of action.

www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm

(scroll down a bit for charts)

Does anyone else think SMH is bottoming here? eom.