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Try,
You are correct i did not see that SEO's holding's were in the name of Chrome and not mutually exclusive of chrome.
Thanks for keeping me straight!
BAY
I see my mistake.
Look on Page 70 of the 10k
Sorry for the confusion.
There are only 65Million common shares that are floating.
About 9%. If our volume goes up much over a million shares a day we will see some enormous price swings (probably in both directions, but with the stock generally increasing in price)
Bay
TamTam,
Aftr reviewing the document (quickly scanning) it is apparent that between SEO, Chrome and a Nigerian Bank 91% of the Common stock is locked up. It would make it easy for this group to control the price at whatever price they desired.
The million dollar question is why would they benefit from keeping the price as low as possible?
IF SEO is looking for a buy-out with Sinopec it would not make sense. As there are some perceived hurdles when you get multiples much larger that 5 or 6X on SP.
My gut feeling is that SEO will stay with this stock through exploration and that his confidence factor on hitting a viable field(s) is high. Otherwise he would have used his ownership leverage to promot a higher SP and then walked away with Billions through an Sinopec buyout.
JMHO
Bayfisher
Strass,
I was talking about the post below.
If I was mistaken I apologoize.
Ruby1100,
This may be the key to everything (or nothing).
"Also, Sinopec Group has a subsidiary called Sinopec International Petroleum
Exploration and Production Corp. (SIPC) that undertakes overseas investments and
operations in the upstream oil and gas sector.
Sinopec is looking to build on its 2.8 billion barrels of proven reserves by
adding to its portfolio Addax's 536 million-plus barrels of proved and probable
reserves. Addax averaged production of 136.5 million barrels a day last year."
Dosen't Chrome Group fall into this category? Could all the posturing and speculation be for Chrome, our senior shareholder? Hmm, I wonder how deep these roots are! It certainly explains the silence and the share price "management" over the last two months.
Strass
Be courteous to all, but intimate with few; and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence.
George Washington
Strass,
I think you meant 136,000 Bbl/day.
At 136.5 million barrels a day they would produce 50,000,000,000/Year
Just a thought,
How agressive will US Gov be in encouraging US companies to go after the rest of the JDZ? Will we want China to buy up the last great oil frontier? Especially if it is is such a favorable geo-political location.
Will there be a push for American companies to get aggressive and lock up as much as they can? Could this create a buyers frenzy? And if so, how much do we as erhc shareholders benefit? Just some thoughts but it may be interesting to see what other Oil entities do now. Also how does the Addax purchase affect the "proposed" value of blocks 6 thru 9 or of the EEZ?
Finally, the one final playing card that ERHC holds is that its largest stock holder has the ability to streamline a companies infrastructure build out and on-going production operations in this region. How is that valued and could that possibly affect the shares that we hold?
Many many questions. It will be scary fun to watch all of this play out over the next 6 months.
BayFisher
Sneak, your math look solid as well as your analysis but when you reverse english into the recoverable potential that seems low. dont you think?
Question is: if you double that recoverable factor to closer to 8 Billion does erhe per share value go above $10/share.
I will respect your opinion!
Bay
Dadd,
With all respect it has a lot to do with OUR board. A lot of us are always wondering if some of the info we see on this board is simply MM trying to get small swings in the market to trade in and out of. It could be a factor in some of the nonsense that takes place here.
Just my opinion.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=an0vTmWDEj_Y#
This may shut a few of the pumper/dumper acts down
Oil for July Delivery closed today at $68.20 NYMEX
Aug delivery $69.11.
Both down about $.30 on the day.
We may have a perfect storm arising over the next 4 to 8 weeks.
Tryoty,
I dont quite agree with you, here's why: GREED.
Employee incentives are not based on what you bring to the company tomorrow. This goes from the janitor all the way to the CEO. And essentially this is a major problem in today's corporate environment. But that aside, everyone that works for Addax will want to make their two cents off Corporate incentives as well as the Options or EssP stock they hold. If there is 30 billion there and the powers that be know it. It will get out. They will make sure it does.
Bay
Tryoty,
I dont quite agree with you, here's why: GREED.
Employee incentives are not based on what you bring to the company tomorrow. This goes from the janitor all the way to the CEO. And essentially this is a major problem in today's corporate environment. But that aside, everyone that works for Addax will want to make their two cents off Corporate incentives as well as the Options or ESPP stock they hold. If there is 30 billion there and the powers that be know it. It will get out. They will make sure it does.
Bay
VERY GOOD RIDDANCE!
ERHE!!!!!
K9,
I do mean that this board has more influence on ERHC than most realize.
Best example was 'Whiteboard-gate'. After a poster on this board discovered that the writing on the board could possible have intent and then that issue was discussed at length on Investorhub the company came out and made a public statement regarding the board and its meaning.
There have been other examples when Keeney or others have made statements that look to be in direct response to hot topics on this board.
Bayfisher
LBM,
I am trying not to sound like a nag, I am only concerned.
We are close very close, and I hope we do not take our eyes off the prize. I believe this board has more influence than most realize. Sometimes bringing up these scenarios can help prevent them
JMO
Again 2 foreign companies. Addax and Chrome
Two foreign companies with Chrome to hide the deal in????????
Mark,
WHat is to keep thenm from cutting a sweetheart deal with SEO and leave us holding the bag?
Mark,
WHat is to keep thenm from cutting a sweetheart deal with SEO and leave us holding the bag?
Magic,
I have not completely made up my mind but logically that is what my gut tells me. I am hoping that some other posters may have more or better insight than I.
One more thing, this is Nigeria. Any kind of Merger deal could have some better terms set up for SEO that would be paid for by us. That is a big worry of mine.
Just how much of this Trillion dollar pie do they want to share with the lumpen proletariat.
Magic,
I have not completely made up my mind but logically that is what my gut tells me. I am hoping that some other posters may have more or better insight than I.
One more thing, this is Nigeria and any kind of merger or deal could have better terms set up for SEO that would be paid for by us. That is a worry of mine.
Just how much of this Trillion dollar pie do they want to share with the lumpen proletariat.
Hey OC,
Pardon my ignorance but why are a few of you (Posters I read and respect) so keen on a merger? From my perspectice Addax would not propose a merger unless it has a financial benefit for them. If it does then it will have to cost us as ERHC shareholders.
The only off set to that (loss of gain) is a reduction in RISK for us. That is all very good but is it worth it?
Is $2 a share (as quoted by Govols) to buy us out (with stock only) good enough? Even if we still have upside potential via our new Addax shares. And remember those are now weighted down significantly!
Not trying to be difficult I just have not decided that a merger is in our best interest unles we extremely adverse to RISK. And the truth is if someone is adverse to RISK why the hell are they in this stock in the first place?
Mark,
When you say deal, are you inferring to a buy-out?
Bayfisher
$150MM when the current market Cap is $220MM??????
Tex,
There are several theories that both the East Coast of Brazil and the GOG initially formed as the smae Eperic sea Aprroximate 100 Million years ago
sinus persius is the Persian Gulf
** Africa and Middle East-focused oil and gas firm Addax Petroleum (AXC.TO) has attracted buyout interest from major Chinese, Japanese, and Indian energy firms, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the matter. [ID:nHKG25114]
OILY, looks like Addax is being pursued. ERHC would be a much easier takeout unless SEO is holding fast.
Starting to get very ineteresting........
Arizona 17 Stealers 13
Not True, Mraket cap is fine but Cash-flow is the lifeblood of a company
Mike,
I wish I could give you an accurate answer.
Truth is I am not sure. I would think that after one-well a geophysicist could give you a very conservative and highly risked estimate. The problem with that is that unless the economics make those barrels commercial it still should have no value on a company's books.
An example of what I am saying is that Chevron said the OBO-1 could have as much as 300 to 500 thousand barrels recoverable but at the present time was not coomercial. Should their balance shhet be rewarded for those barrels? They have a 20 year window to produce those barrels or they lose the rights.
If you book them as proven then they get to borrow against them, as they add Equity to the company's balance sheet.
To truly understand the exact size and condition of a reservoir could take as long as 5 to 6 years and as many as 30 to 50 wells.
But reservoir engineers can make some fairly accurate guesses as to the minimum amount recoverable on as few as 3 or 4 wells. Obviously as a company produces a zone they begin to understand it more and more.
Tapco,
The tricky part is spudding in. Once the ship starts to trip drill stem down to the ocean floor they will have already set an ocean floor manifold with BOP's in place. To get pipe down to the bottom with a fresh bit could take anywhere from 3 to 6 hours depending on conditions.
Mike,
Actually, only one well would make it difficult to book proven reserves. Generally you have to drill (at least 2, more than 2 is preferable) two wells and conduct down-hole tests, shut-in BHP tests and flow tests; that you then correlate across the two wells to extrapolate reserve potential and then recoverable reserve potential.
Sorry Majic,
I did not see you post!
Bayfisher
If Board members are concerned that our stock price is falling......I have a theory.
Money is leaving ERHE as people are flocking to the bargains that are out there and as the market is trying to correct for last weeks decline. It is a smart move and once the market has stabilized we should expect to see investors look to regain a piece of ERHE and our SP will rise.
The truth is except making the long-time investor a bit happier (or lets say less ill at ease), until the drill bit hits the mud we will not see anything move our stock price like most of us expect.
In answer to a private question I received but have only read this week: When I write drill and 'PERF', to PERForate means to actually blow holes in your production stem and allow the oil to flow into your pipe.
Board members,
I have been off the boeard for about a month. Have we had some news on drilling (or lack thereof) that is pushing our SP down?
Other news that i have nbot heard, could someone give me a quick synopsis and bring me up to date?
Thanks