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Think it'll get pushed out to next term?
That would be a huge disappointment and likely cause a 30% drop in price.
Not to mention, the August deadline will be pointless if SCOTUS hasn't ruled by then.
No bueno amigos
This waiting is only the beginning as SCOTUS' ruling won't be a final judgment by any means.
Assuming you're 100% Commons, expect to wait a lot longer. The longest you'll likely need to wait is 2028 (Warrants Expiration), but I imagine a new FHFA Director can extend that deadline
$0.03 FNMA Pop Sellers crushed our dreams of the Moon today.
We can try again next week.
That's not how damages work. Those damaged by the Warrants would only be entitled to the $ loss of their shares.
So if FNMA goes from $3.50 to $2.50 after the Warrants are exercised, the Damages would be capped at $1 per share. If FNMA goes up, then no one was damaged
But that court case will never be heard anyway. It will be tossed out by every judge it's put in front of.
Don't forget to consider everything that's happened to the GSEs over the last 10+ years, plus what's still happening to them now (even after we had a favorable Treasury Secretary and FHFA Director).
We'll have to wait and see if anything changes even if SCOTUS rules in favor of shareholders.
If Calabria is removable at-will and SCOTUS gives FHFA/Treasury even a slight nod, we're all about to be taken to the woodshed by Biden's Blackrock crew.
A favorable ruling doesn't expedite a path to release either.
If the Lemmings' Irrational Exuberance takes FNMA to $3.20+, I plan to sell and use those profits to add to my JPS position.
Lamberth next year solidifies the value of JPS.
The future value of Commons still remains elusive and likely blown out of proportion by most oberservers thinking FNMA will see anything above $8 (pre Reverse Split).
Once the Warrants are exercised, the damage to Commons will have been done.
It will be too late.
Pretty soon you won't need to spend so much time clarifying this information to the FNMA Lemmings. SCOTUS' ruling will help to some degree.
But I imagine your expertise will still be required for a while longer to help lift the veil of irrational exuberance and the Common Nonsense falsehoods.
What do you value FNMA at with a ruling that favors FHFA/Treasury?
Not sure the Moon will be possible once the Warrants are exercised and after the Reverse Split occurs.
If there's any substantial pop on SCOTUS, everyone should know what to do.
Sell the Pop, because FNMA Always Drops
Exceptional FNMA Facts. Thanks for setting the record straight re: the Warrants.
Great! I plan to re-buy them at $2.00 again after I sell them.
That'll probably be a few weeks or a month later.
It's coming amigos!
1:10 Reverse Split from $3.20 would be $32, not $30.20.
Are you expecting a Reverse Split to be 1:10?
I'm almost embarrassed to say, but I actually bought some FNMA this week.
The Irrational Exuberance is always higher in Commons than Jr. Preferreds (the smart money). Might as well take advantage of the Lemmings!
My only intention is to Sell the Pop because FNMA Always Drops.
But I'm hoping the irrational exuberance will allow me to sell at $3.20 later this month or early next.
It's coming amigos!!
Do you still think it's coming amigo?
Even if SCOTUS is positive for FNMA, most people will be Selling the Pop after learning FNMA Always Drops. I plan to do the same.
The $2 Magnet will pull us back regardless of the size of the Pop.
I don't think it's coming amigos.
Prepare for more disappointment and lengthy delays.
At least we have 2028 as a deadline since we know Treasury wants to exercise its Warrants.
Although, a new FHFA Director could easily extend that deadline beyond 2028
Expand the time frame. You'll be enlightened by the FNMA vs FNMAS comparison if you look
Go back to the beginning of the Conservatorship as that's the starting point everyone should be looking at.
FNMA might see $50, after 10:1 Reverse Split.
Who sold that much at these prices? Ackman?
Hearing SCOTUS is imminent. JPS are the play.
Commons still have to climb the Wall of Worry (aka dilution).
Sell the Pop, FNMA Always Drops
Did he suggest Treasury is Converting SPS to Commons??
Sounds like he expects the Warrants to get Exercised!!
For now, I'll just keep on Selling the Pops.
FNMA Always Drops
Do JPS Convert to Commons this year or next??
Lots of FNMA Facts in this post. Thanks for sharing!
Sell the Pops, FNMA Always Drops
$2 Magnet working like a charm.
Excellent FNMA Facts. Can we sticky this?
Smart move. Commons are swimming upstream and will be for a long time.
Those FNMA Pop Sellers are too smart!
It's amazing the Bag Holders haven't caught on to this yet.
FNMA Always Drops, so you have to Sell the Pops
Do you remember what they say about FNMA Pops?
They're to be sold!
Because FNMA Always Drops
True. And a loss at SCOTUS will confirm that to be the case for Common bagholders.
True. And the GSEs aren't paying for the Court Fees any longer since the Sweep has stopped.
Maybe that will incent the Treasury/FHFA to settle shortly after SCOTUS rules.
Unless, SCOTUS reverses the 5th Circuit and says Treasury/FHFA did no wrong.
Then Commons are toast and JPS have to wait for Lamberth in 2022.