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So worst case scenario is the second poster on Wednesday may not add any value, with the upside being even better results the longer the patients are on the drug.
Based on what we will learn from poster one, how critical will poster two be? If poster one is great data, what else will we glean from poster two that would have an affect on the pps at that point? Thoughts anyone?
And today's AVXL's trading battle will continue into the extended hours as the expiry price is based, not on the market close at 4pm, but is based on the pps @8PM EST, according to my broker TD AmeriT.
Flying, how about you? Are you using straddles and if so, can you describe how you use it. If not, what are you considering?
Whatever trading platform you use from your broker should have a tab for "Options Chain" Look at that for the details. Different stocks have different prices, AVXL has a $2.50 spread between strike points, they've added $10 and $12.50 recently, added a $15.00 strike today.
No actual straddles yet because I'm bullish without regard for the upcoming news. After we get through the action over the next several weeks, my option basket of powder will be refilled if I play it right, and then I'll be more cautious....maybe!
The Options Guide that Bud Powell posted via IP Man is a good reference tool sorted by strategy. Thanks to Bud and IP, very useful. I opened an option account last month and have been buying positions in Aug. and Oct. With the AAIC catalyst, the news and resulting pps action will occur weeks before the Aug. expiry date giving enough time to take profits or exercise the options and buy more shares at a set strike price. It's a good way to accumulate more shares if you are out of fresh powder, which I am. I'm "all in" Long and Strong, for the pending news.
The option strike price is the dividing line of if an option is In or Out of The Money. At today's strike price of $7.50, the longs need it to be higher, the shorts need it to be lower. Although a simplistic view, it's the main idea to be understood. Is it more clear than mud now?
Option dates moving forward, Aug. 19, Oct. 21, Jan. 20. Getting involved with options is a good way of learning what impact those trades have on pps action around the option dates.
Could be another point to pbar's question
Pbar said
Correct. I do not view it as a negative, however, I am yet to come up with a solid counterpoint to those that DO view it as a negative. It is one flag that I cannot defend.
Thoughts?
Not sure, but five was always the number I was expecting, could be wrong, time will tell.
I read a post from someone claiming to have received an email from AAIC, "Email from aaic regarding developing topic oral presentations: "Yes, that is correct. The developing Topics session will have only five presentations.
Best regards,
Nicole" If that is not correct, my apologies.
The pro argument would be to compare who was selected and why they merit the inclusion over us. The last two presentations are:
~Effects of Fortasyn Connect (Souvenaid) on Longitudinal Brain Atrophy Measures in Prodromal Alzheimer’s Disease: Results of the Double-Blind Randomised Controlled Lipididiet Trial
~High Dose Donepezil with Solifenacin (CPC-201) Improves Safety and Initial Efficacy in Alzheimer’s Disease
The five oral presentations for AAIC have been selected, and we are not among them. I'm posting this as an FYI, but I do not believe it should be viewed as a negative sign, as some will try to make it. For a conference of this magnitude, I believe they (AAIC) need more definitive data before they put a topic/company on their main stage. Here's the link https://www.alz.org/aaic/portal/overview.asp
I think you're right. I doubt I will be called to pay up at $5.00, but like I said, I would gladly do so.
Selling Puts is a good way of generating income and is a Bullish move. I sold some Puts weeks ago at the $5.00 strike for July and made some nice income. The nice thing is the Shorts paid me! If the price goes down below $5.00 on Friday, I'll be the proud owner of more shares @$5.00, which I will be honored to have.
Well spring said
I personally wouldn't; I just sold my October ones today. There isn't much of a margin of safety now at these levels. Sure it could continue running up, but there is some serious risk there.
Agree, and thanks for your guidance. I just sent an admin review request.
BREXIT...52 to 48 with 50% of the votes in. Futures are down, could be some buying opportunities tomorrow. Does anyone think a BREXIT to leave vote, and US market downturn, have a negative affect on our stock in Anavex? While we seem to move mainly on news, would a large Market correction impact us even amid all this great news? Thoughts anyone?
Thank you Cyber, you make my point:
impossible to predict maybe..
but that doesn't mean they don't exist.
Your point is based on a future yet to unfold. My point is based on the facts today. I hope you are right, but your point can be refuted because it hasn't happened yet.
Then this point also can't be refuted: the Mako/Rosen tag team was actually good for ctix long term.
There is no way to prove that.
If we are being real, no partnerships were lost bc of Mako and Rosen.
You can't "Unring" the bell. It's impossible to determine what the impact of the frivolous lawsuit was on the long term value of the company or progress of it's pipeline. TheDane is correct:
We've already paid short term but long term the company and stock have been damaged beyond recovery.
OK, I just registered for email alerts for the AAIC 2016. I'll report if I get anything regarding Anavex.
Do we have confirmation about presenting anything at the AAIC in July? I read that was expected, but can't find anything confirming. Of course we all hope data will be presented, but I'm not sure they are even registered to be there. Anyone else got a clue?
I agree, let the law enforcement work first, then look to get Ashcroft involved in a class action for the shareholders and company that has been harmed. If I were Leo, I'd keep things quiet for a bit to see how the market responds to the dismissal. The lack of a pps uptick gives them better evidence of the long term impact of the frivolous lawsuit engaged by Rosen, harming the company, shareholders and patients.
Wrong again Dud, up 10 cents to $1.56 since news out, and volume up 300%. Shares traded by 12:21PM around 51K, now 200K.
Yes, retails selling now have not heard the news! I'm grateful to have been on this board to read it when I did. I had time to sell other positions and buy more here. This is the last time we will see pps below $1.50 IMO!
This is great news; every count was denied by the judge. Thanks for posting, now we need to get the word out, it will take some time for the public to notice. I feel a PR coming! Go CTIX
What about the ASCO starting today? I looked at the company website,no events scheduled after January 2016. I guess nothing new to present or are they just not keeping up with the site?
Imagine what will happen when the leaked news becomes public.
I agree, and one of the near term catalyst is the court case. A decision to dismiss the case will give us a nice bounce. No need to discuss the opposite result, we have a strong case; It's only a matter of time! Keep the faith!
Thanks for sharing your Jing, and happy birthday to your Mom!
Thanks Karen, glad to hear. I see no reason for the judge's decision to take much longer, but I'm not familiar with what is the typical time frame or what kind of back log may exist.
Not sure if you were responding to me, my question is about our amended motion to dismiss, filed on 3/25/16. What is the expected time frame for a decision? I'm not sure if Rosen gets another opportunity to file an answer or is it in the judge's hands. I believe it should be over any day now, tomorrow is two months since our filing. Anyone know?
Thanks BD for the summary, but one missing catalysts is the court decision. Does anyone have an idea on the timeline for a decision regarding the dismissal filing?
I'm kinda expecting a "P data un-blinded today" kind of PR, that's how Leo rolls.
I stand corrected, but my point remains. We are in the foundation building stage, which can be painstaking to watch if all we see is one brick at a time. Investors need to visualize the long term value that these "studies" represent.
This Trial News shows how we are building a solid foundation. A future pipeline which has game changing potential; I'm glad to be "All In' at these levels.
Thanks, IMO, there has to be a risk or it wouldn't be a market. I suspect that there are guidelines or restrictions on how long you have to wait to regain control over your shares, otherwise, the broker would be taking all the risk, and that won't happen.