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Mother Nature has another bout of cold weather headed east. First week of February. Not as intense nor as long as the last one. When weather reports get reflected in higher price I will take a pretty good position in Dgaz. Maybe as soon as Friday.
Still holding dust. Sitting on a bit of a gain. Externals keep sending gold good news and it doesn't know what to do. I agree chart looks like it has some steam left in it. I wonder if investors taking profits is what's holding it back.
Off topic. I'm posting late from vacation in Oregon. Everybody's been freezing in the east while out west we've been hiking in the mountains in shirt sleeves. Sure could use some snow though. Entire west has been warm with no snow.
I took a teeny bite of dwt AH. Oil will probably edge a bit higher, but I have my short starter position in place.
Gold is down, finally! 1313 as I write this. I've been in and out ot DUST several times during the past two weeks, avoiding any big losses. It might be time...
Sold my 26.25s at PM open.
never never apolgize for taking profits. Good job!
NG $3! Picked up 26.25s
NG was smokin today! I've been scalping dgaz on the tops. Fortunately I saw a bullish trend and sold all my d late weds for little gain. I will be looking to buy the top out of tomorrow's action.
Still holding dust at 23.74. I'm gonna die of boredom. Paytience....
I will be buying d tomorrow close to 3. Watched NG repeatedly get off the canvas on weds and sold my d late in day, thinking that there might be some up movement overnight. Wow! Was there ever. I've been all cash today, waiting...
Sold everything yesterday. All cash now. Squeeze underway?
Warm up is coming. I've been buying Dgaz on the pops. NG going to 2.50. And I bought more dust at 23.74
Cold air will be retreating in the 8-14 day outlook.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
Warm up following will put focus of traders back on overproduction.
HFI Research released their forecast for Thursday's storage report (for the week ending Dec 22)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4133950-natural-gas-storage-figures-week?isDirectRoadblock=true&uprof=45&utoken=4f2c4e8df4bb4b50a644fd74e49cb764
Shorty came back after Christmas and said "there's too much NG production - down you go!"
Buying D on the NG spikes is working well for me
I thought ng would go to 2.50 but this cold snap looks very impressive. Revisiting 2.75 instead? January looking a bit colder currently.
Low volume today. I don't think it's reversal time yet. I'm currently leaning a bit bear.
Oh, I picked up some DUST too
Most probable scenario goes to 2.50. I'm buyin popcorn and getting a good seat, cause it's gonna be a fight. Alternative scenario is a weather driven relief rally. BWDIK
Yeah it was. It just chugged up all day. Very low volume though. Feels like the longs were taking it for a ride while shorty was getting ready for Christmas. You have a thought?
TA and fundamentals look bad for NG. It could get a lot worse. Remember winter 2016? Probably gonna be a fight at 2.50 but if it breaks through, there could be a trapdoor. There might be a weather driven relief rally but every day it gets closer to the march contract. I'm buying D on NG pops. It's working ok. I've made back some of the 29k I got smoked for during the sell off.
What I mean to say is that Chinese NG market is not connected to the U.S. NG market at all. All cheniere and cove point volumes are prebooked for years to come. The volume of take away is a stable known factor that can not be affected by Chinese demand.
Someday that will change as more US LNG terminals are built.
My best guess as to where it goes is weather forecast dependent. After the cold snap there will be a warm up. If it is only a day or so before cold weather returns then a relief rally is possible. If the mild weather lingers for 5-7 days then natty flushes to 2.50ish where there will be a hell of a fight. By the day after christmas the forecast will be pretty clear.
I would think any true bears would be selling and rolling their shorts into feb instead of getting caught in a squeeze, but i defer to posters more knowlegeable than I.
I don’t think the Chinese situation is rigged. If we could send it to the chinese we would by the shipload! There isn’t enough LNG capacity in the US - yet.
Year ago production was much lower. Production has been setting new records almost weekly. It all comes down to FOG - fear of glut.
Last post I promise. Tweet about next possible shot of cold air.
Rinse, repeat. Atmosphere seems to be in pattern where every two weeks poleward heat transport results in mild pattern followed by minor disruption of #PolarVortex and a turn to #cold weather. Watching for next cycle in early January. pic.twitter.com/2zdwhcNn3V
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) December 19, 2017
On a bullish note, thru this past year I've noticed a tendency for the injection forecasters to underestimate overall NG use during weeks of extreme temperature. Summer weeks of high CDDs and winter weeks of high HDDs seem to produce bullish surprises. That might be the case for the reports that come out Dec 28 and Jan 4.
Link to what Wrinkles has to say about RS
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=137031747
anybody know api storage figures?
After week 2, European model is inconclusive. I don't think big money has seen anything in the weather reports they have access to that makes them believe winter will be different than the La Lina which NOAA predicted. La Nina pattern usually means shots of cold then mild air. As a bull I was excited about the upcoming cold snap and hoping for a ridge to build over Greenland that would block cold air in the eastern US. That does not look promising. I do not fancy myself as any kind of weatherman, merely a weather enthusiast. This is my opinion.
I am not holding D positions overnight, just trading the daily price action. Shorts are firmly in control and it will take an extraordinarily cold forecast to squeeze them. BWTHDIK!
Celsius energy uses the occasionally wrong GFS model for its projections. I looked at the GFS 16 day this AM. Its impressive. The industry relies more on the ECMWF model. Institutional NG traders use commodity weather forecasters (there are dozens of them) who are looking 3 weeks in the future. They get info before us peons. When the market moves for no good reason its often chalked up to manipulation. Manipulation exists for sure but often these movements are attributable to info that private investors don't have.
Not too good based on what I've seen of the recent weather data.
I went to the dark side. I took a position this morning in dgaz as NG took its usual morning run up. I cashed out after a 5% gain. I will try to do the same tomorrow if the opportunity exists.
I don't see a prolonged period of cold weather this winter. Shots of cold air lasting 7-10 days will push in from canada over the eastern US interspersed with 5-7 day periods of pacific air. Shorty's taking this to 2.50 or lower. Just my opinion.
Weather is not conclusive after Jan 5. GFS points colder but It isn't trusted by the market. Only thing that's gonna make shorty roll over is continued cold.
This winter reminds me of 2015-2016 when there was also overproduction. That winter had no cold weather though. The RSI dipped to 15.80 on Dec 15. RSI also was often below 30 throughout the winter. I tried to post a link to the time frame in question but the chart keeps reverting to the current chart. If you want to take a look go to:
Yahoo charts UGAZ
Select RSI as an indicator
Select time frame from 9/15/2015 to 3/10/2016
It is an ugly chart and an example of how the RSI 30 guideline does little to help in a big bear market.
I've been really banging the weather sites hard. There is nothing even remotely definitive about the models. I am waiting for dr Judah cohen to post on Monday. That said, there is an argument for a stronger La Niña which means a warmer winter.
Ok, instead of a pump up let's call it a price anomaly that can be capitalized. Today's pre market is a good example opened 5.95. That's 2.5% above yesterday's close. As of this writing it is 5.79. A 2.5% drop from today's premarket high. I'm thinking of a quantifiable strategy, long or short, to make money on the difference between the premarket high and the previous close or the market open. I think a shorting strategy might be better. I've noticed this pattern a lot and I don't think it's random.
Now it's 5.70