Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
We’re also easily attracted to lights... no wait that’s moths
Didn’t realize Thinking Fast was written by Kahneman. Thanks for the recommendation I’ll be putting it on my list.
Kids these days ??
Safety cushion for a career leap into business school, though my GI Bill will do the dirty work. Strong interest in the intersection of biotech and finance
If that fails I’ll use the remainder to buy a Cessna and become a bush pilot in some fun and forgotten corner of the world
If you read The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis he details the phenomena of Loss Aversion discovered by Israeli psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.
It’s the same mechanism that drove people away from AMRN pre-topline and, IMO, created a “risk discount”. People are willing to compromise quite a bit for the sense of security that comes with a sure thing, or illusion thereof. Just look at marriage
I think it’s often a mechanism that facilitates buyouts and keeps terms favorable enough for BP to profit. The x-factor in this instance seems to be the potential for further indications, and the temperament of the Baker Bros... I don’t get the sense that they are men who fear to take an L
Ridiculous comparison. 76%GM is a wet dream for any S&P 500 company
I’ve been buying long calls with cash from shares I’ve been selling. Trying to keep a ratio of approx 80/20 shares to otm long calls. Don’t have any other traded equities to offer as collateral.
Jf, Kev, map - thanks for the help; you’re correct, they said it’s a “pull” transaction with a nominal $50-100 fee.
So I’ve been frustrated by a situation, need the advice of the savvy on this board.
I have 2.5k shares in a regular brokerage with my bank, but they are risk averse and won’t allow me an options account to buy long calls.
To get around them, I set up an E*TRADE with options privileges, but it only had 1k shares. I want to get the regular brokerage acct stuff into the E*TRADE for potential leverage, but don’t want to sell bc of how fast this is moving and the days required to settle/transfer (I have all my liquidity committed )
I can just transfer the shares without selling, right? Any tax implications? (No iras involved)
JL,
I agree the goal with AA preflop is to drive callers down to one or two with as much money on the table as possible. I think in most situations, an all-in raise preflop would drive out all potential callers.
That’s off the chain! I haven’t seen that even in all my casual buy-in games.
As for Vegas, I fancy myself to be a regular Doc Holiday
Raf, I dream they are :)
Or perhaps a poker analogy for our hold’em fans: you don’t go all in with pocket aces before the flop. Better to raise the value gradually...
S, BB...
I think this is the plan. JT was picked as CEO for his aptitude as a strategic thinker and calculated moves. Does anyone else remember how excellently timed the last secondary was?
He knows better than us how grossly undervalued this asset is due to WS stigma and doubt. Just spilling out all data at once like a drunk voicemail to your ex isn’t a smart move - hostile takeovers are a real danger to shareholder value.
People are anecdotal creatures and love the drama of a good story. Better to tease it out in stages. I was deeply skeptical of BB’s October Hypothesis earlier today, but think: if JT got permission from AHA to drop just one awesome diabetic endpoint, wouldn’t that build even more excitement for AHA? Wouldn’t everyone win?
Thero’s executive bio suggests the same
“Prior to Amarin, Mr. Thero was at ViaCell, Inc., where as chief financial officer he helped guide the company to its successful sale, and Abiomed, Inc., where he held multiple positions, including senior vice president business operations and chief financial officer, and helped manage the company's transition from a development-stage company into a growing commercial entity.”
I called my brother who’s a young GP yesterday, encouraging him for the nth time to check out V’s therapy potential. His comments align perfectly with your remarks on opinion leaders and malpractice avoidance.
Agree with the thoughts on marketing. This is a clear win for patients, providers, and insurers. If full data is as good as we expect, sales will be gravy.
BPs should/will view Amarin not only as an opportunity but also a potential threat.
Ferret,
IIRC someone (zum, I believe) had a google drive doc with a thorough rundown of all EPA studies. I might have the link on my home computer but I’m traveling right now.
Kev, count me in if there’s room! I shot you a PM with my contact info.
On a related note, now seems as good a moment as any for me to thank the members of this board, especially the big ones who’ve already been thanked countless times.
I feel tremendously blessed not only to be in my current financial situation, but to have learned so much about what top-notch DD looks like. I’ve been investing in biotech since I was an eager and naive 19 year old. In the decade long journey from there to here, the last three years of learning from members of this board have easily eclipsed all that preceded.
There are some very brilliant minds (and personalities!) on this board, and I will be sad when it inevitably dissolves.
Until then, long and strong!
Ps: I thought I was in a legitimate dream when I awoke Monday morning. What a dizzy feeling.
Pps: If anyone decides to visit sunny Honolulu with their windfall, I’d love to grab coffee and talk war stories
Another major x-factor still in play that I’m surprised few have mentioned: indications beyond CVD.
For the trial experts out there, is it possible that some of the added SEs could be ‘feelers’ to guide AMRN in researching other uses for their new superdrug?
Part of me wonders if pursuit of further indications will be worthwhile simply due to the supply/demand constraints.
Mgmt didn’t need to thank FDA in the PR and I certainly don’t think they need to kiss anyone’s cheeks with data like this
New indications will come in any case. Time to celebrate!
Management taking the high road with an olive branch to the FDA: “Amarin is also grateful to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its continued encouragement and support toward study design and completion.”
I love it when a plan comes together.
Solid work man. PM the 10th seems likely.
Ah, yes you're correct, I forgot there were two sets of notes.
the smaller conversion? Are you referring to the secondary?
Seems like we're talking from different playbooks... maybe someone else can chime in and clear things up
Likewise, I'm not understanding yours. The former noteholders are at arms length, and now hold the converted shares in lieu of the notes. To void these newly issued shares, whether it be by AMRN proper or a subsidiary, would betray the trust of these arms length investors.
But perhaps I'm not understanding your question correctly.
Even if that were feasible and legal, you're talking about corporate suicide for a company that is not yet financially self-sustaining. Violating the good faith of investors (especially non-retail investors) would turn AMRN into a financial pariah. Wall Street isn't entirely devoid of ethics, they are just very pragmatic ethics. If you want to invest in a company with more 'creative' financial structures, Russia is always looking for more foreign investors... I wonder why...
lmao bc we all have PTSD
You're not alone Kiwi, in fact you're the one poster I find myself most in tune with on the board these days. I think it's disappointing (though not surprising) how many posters here immediately resort to ad homs and other fallacious or irrelevant arguments to hound PY.
I don't agree with most of his points, though I can understand his perspective. Is it possible some placebo patients will drop out if they discover they are in the placebo group via a trig count? Sure, it's feasible. Is it also feasible they will stay in the study knowing they are placebo? Yes, that's possible too. And if they did, you could expect good things for R-IT outcomes via the Nocebo Effect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nocebo
"In the narrowest sense, a nocebo response occurs when a drug-trial subject's symptoms are worsened by the administration of an inert, sham,[5] or dummy (simulator) treatment, called a placebo."
Granted, he's butchered a lot of facts regarding trial design and such. Thankfully HDG is our semper paratus Guardian of Fact. :)
Interesting read for the who deride V as "just fish oil"
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160506-the-arctic-gold-rush-for-tomorrows-medicines
"Among the latest discoveries are molecules that inhibit plaque buildup in blood vessels. Jorgensen says he’s not permitted to say more at this point, but confirms that the find came from a sea sponge. "
seriously who the fck is shelly and why did she ban him?
raf,
To be brutally honest in that east-coast kinda way, I consider most of your posts to be just noise. I also think most of my posts are equally worthless to this board's exchange of useful knowledge, which is why I generally keep my mouth shut and lurk.
But I have to say, this post strikes a chord with me: the odds for interim stoppage seem modest but quite real. Your point about the "remarkable" event rates is striking. Certainly it's a mathematical possibility that P rate was low and V lacks efficacy, but I think you're correct in applying Occam's Razor to cut through the bullshit and derive a reasonable expectation. Just like you used it to slice through the TA-boys' psuedo-scrying volcanos, ascending triangles, and flying V's... wait no that last one was from a film....
Actually a tailwind is a very bad thing on takeoff. But yes, I believe we are achieving V1. Rotate!
raf,
some people just want to be naive and live in a warm and fuzzy world... people like you and I have the experience to know better.
it could be even more subtle and untraceable.... just an end-to-end encrypted whatsapp message to tip off a contact at big pharma... big pharma makes play for dear AMRN, and panelist is later awarded a very fat 'advising contract' for big pharma's Vascepa division.
cbb/JL/zum, thanks for setting me straight on that one. I guess that removes my only concern about using it as a supplement... the good news about EPA just keeps rolling in
source please? everything I've read has suggested that it is blood-thinning... something i take seriously in the context of my job
HDG,
your commitment is at a professional level; there are moments where I wonder if you are the infamous Baker Bros themselves :P Your analytical approach to AMRN has taught me volumes about business and innovation.
Ok so I know AMRN has stated R-IT expenses will decrease after enrollment is finished, but Suntrust is projecting 17.2M R&D for FY16. That's something like a 65% drop in R&D expenses... can anyone shed light on how plausible those figures are? Seems very optimistic to me.
JL,
Coincidentally my hawk moniker is of military origin as well. I'm not a medical professional, but I've had plenty of conversations with my brother (an MD) who has confirmed my suspicion that the medical profession has a great deal of bureaucracy and workplace politics. Turns out we are all human after all.
I'm reminded of Michael Lewis's excellent (as always) expose on the 07-08 financial crisis. A handful of savvy financial analysts saw what the big banks refused to see. They even presented their data and plan to the biggest investment banks, and still the 'big boys' didn't see the forest for the trees. Why? because everyone got very lazy at those firms and accepted the assumption that the housing market would never decline.
I'm wagering (literally) that it is the same with AMRN. Everyone saw fantastic potential in '12-13, but faith was lost in the long brutal journey to where we stand today. Saying 'fish oil' will be a multi-billion dollar prescription drug will earn you the same look as those who warned Wall Street that their lucrative CDO-industry was a timebomb faced in 2006.
This boils down to 'faith'. I have confidence in the multitude of studies we have discussed as well as the numerous models for R-IT we have developed.
I hope we will know the final answer to your question soon. In the meantime, I'm doubling down.
JL is the resident Subject Matter Expert regarding the clinical application of 'science' on the board. He's entitled to an ego, especially when someone challenges his expertise.
But I agree with you, there's a small chance FDA will declare this new science. It certainly would sell easily to the public's simplistic understanding of CAD.