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FONR radiologists don't expect their imaging centers to be less profitable (in 3rd q 2015) according to this survey
Diagnosticimaging.com/reimbursement
(makes you sign in, but gives you a peek)
FONR SLGD indiscriminate selling continues. Check them out.
There is one board member who is particularly quiet...
Pyds I think a lot of those are real expenses, judging from the fins of their acquisition. Then again what can double and crash back out for no good reason can double again for just as little reason
Pyds I think a lot of those are real expenses, judging from the fins of their acquisition. Then again what can double and crash back out for no good reason can double again for just as little reason
WLDN Looks undervalued. I think this is a case of the market being confused by NOLs. Their operating results look very nice. Also might be a case of what goes up for no good reason can go down for just as little reason, i.e. weak hands from the big gains last year.
S&p 500 futures down over 1% since close. Are you not entertained?
1990s tomorrow?
EDUC could be interesting, but I still have a lingering bad taste from their huge Q4 (edit: quarter ended Nov 30) disappointment. Looked very interesting back then, including management pumping with PRs, and they report a surprise decrease in earnings. Luckily I didn't get it due to the run up going into earnings, but I'm sure some people on this board got hit.
As always I hope it works out. On a positive note I will say I like your ideas, keep them coming.
BSTO financials due today. Come on BSTO suprise us!
SLGD just shot up 18% on .065 EPS, plus a huge gain on deferred tax asset recognition. 26% yoy rev growth. Sales of their main product are up 44% yoy in the 1st 6 months 2015.
SLGD Yes but their 2 big distribution agreements don't come up for renewal until the end of 2016 and Sep '17. Don't you think the market will get tired of seeing .04 and .05 EPS per quarter on a $1 stock with $.50 in cash and a $.29 working capital surplus before then?
They are making so much money they will probably get squeezed, but still I think it is more likely the agreements get renewed. Wouldn't want to be holding at that point but I think the next 6-12 months should be interesting.
S&P is not even down 1% on the week. Remember Monday?
I would not get too hung up on the moves of the last 3 days. Monday was the huge Berkshire acquisition. Last 2 days have been China yuan devaluation. So event-driven moves mainly in large cap companies. The question is, can the U.S. fed really raise rates with the country already in deflation? Where's the inflation? U.S. CPI is down on the year and when July numbers come out it will be down again because of the drop in oil. With the devaluation of the yuan all of our China made crap is going to be cheaper as well, going forward. I'm not so sure its time to go into cash.
FONR That's right. It will only boost earnings by .01-.02 EPS, but I like it as an indicator that they are still interested in buying out the NCI. I wouldn't be suprised if the price went up on flat earnings. They are getting about a $.09 (yearly) EPS boost yoy from the $5 + $1.1M investments though, so they have a bit of a tailwind there. Plus revs from MRI deliveries on orders from last October could hit any time.
BSTO BIG NEWS!!! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
They updated their profile on the OTC LOL
You know what, I'll take it!
IEHC (7.25) up 17% on the best quarter in the history of the company. They filed an NT 10-Q but give "anticipated" numbers of $.30-.33 EPS on revs of $5-5.2M for 26+% yoy growth. I once looked back at the last 10 years of financials for this company and they have been growing steadily at upper single digits for over 10 years. Very nice ROIC in the 20s as well as nice return on incremental capital invested in the business. Downside is they are a very small company and some single customers account for a large percentage of their revs (Two customers account for 16%, so moderately concentrated). I will revisit my valuation tonite. IIRC I had them valued at close to $10, with these nice results they may be worth even more now.
As always this is not investment advice but a teaser to get people interested to do their own research.
FONR 2 snippets I wanted to share. Someone on the yahoo board mentioned it may be down due to fear about Medicare reimbursement cuts. Turns out in the 2016 proposed rule (released July 8 for final rules to be released Nov 1 to take effect Jan 1, 2017) the combined effect of the new rules on "allowed charges" for diagnostic imaging centers, like FONR's, would be +1%.* That sure seems like it covers FONR. Remember I am treating their non-profit medical device business as an advertising wing of their management business. Funny thing is they just about say the same thing in their last 10-K.
Also did anyone else notice they spent $1.1M on buying out NCI in one of their subs in May on top of the $5M in Jan? Those are great transactions IMO. It's hard to tell but from comparing financials it seems they are paying about 10X pretax for the additional cash flow from the NCI, a good deal, especially since they have NOLs to use.
My rough DCFA is saying they are selling for about their no-growth value without the NOLs and should be worth $14-15 depending on how you value the NOLs (i.e. how fast they realize their value & how you discount it to present). Also they have an easy path to earnings growth by spending their next $2m on buying out NCI, which would increase earnings by something like 20%. I already have about as much as I can buy with an average in the $9.8s.
Good Luck all.
As always this is not investment advice, but some teasers to get people interested to do their own research.
*Source (Table 45): https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2015/07/15/2015-16875/medicare-program-revisions-to-payment-policies-under-the-physician-fee-schedule-and-other-revisions
PESI true, but I'm not in love with that excuse. It makes me wonder what surprise is going to hit next quartet to make them miss their numbers again.
PESI misses the low end of management "anticipated adjusted EBITDA" by 20% ($2M vs $2.5-3M), not too happy with the chronic over-promising on this one.
not all moves are predictable
just because the wheel landed on black does not mean it was a good bet.
FONR looking good on fundamentals and technicals. Big volume today kicking in at LT support. Selling for less than its no-growth value even without the NOLs. NOLs probably worth another $4-5 per share. Easy road to growth by investing the next $20M of FCF into buying out the NCI in their management subsidiary. They already started doing this in Jan 2015. I don't know who the private investors are in their subsidiary, but from what I can tell they are getting totally ripped off at the price they are selling their share to the company, but I suspect they are happy to make 25% on their investment from 2 years ago. This would increase earnings by 25% with no organic growth required. MRI business is a minor detail that I consider either worthless or possibly worth a little as basically an advertising wing of the management segment, which would make it an operating asset of the mgmt segment. This is how I treat the valuation. However orders for MRI machines from last October will show up in the next couple quarters, which could give a boost.
Check it out if interested. Most of the write-ups I have looked at totally miss the point about their management segment.
wade- To me, it depends on when the NOLs will run out. For example, AAL I would value on after tax earnings and add about $5/share for the NOLs. FONR you can value on pre-tax earnings and be roughly correct, because they won't pay taxes for probably the next 10 years.
On the rest, I can tell you how I think they should be valued, but when it comes to short term market reaction, I'm not sure. I am still learning a lot about how the market reacts to all kinds of different things.
I will have to get back to you on BSQR.
AAL Yes, this type of stuff is why the most accurate way to value a company is on an operating basis, with the NOLs and non operating assets valued separately. In other words, make your own "valuation allowance". See Koller et al.
AAL Well, it depends on how much money they make, but they will likely run out sometime in mid-2016. And I'm not so sure their taxed trailing PE is 8. If they are taxed like their competitors my math says it is closer to 11.5, which I would say is not so unreasonable in a time when airlines are expanding capacity.
Edit: I guess the 8 is in reference to the analyst estimates for later this year. If they can hit 3 EPS next quarter they are probably undervalued. Seems ambitious to me though.
I would say it is extremely misleading to say they are selling for a "PE of 4.5" and not mention the fact that they are about to run out of NOLs.
wade - agreed EOM
Do you think you can outsmart the millions of people looking at each large cap stock? Not likely. Our best chance is sticking to small companies with fewer eyes on them. Not all moves are predictable.
EVSI I wonder what happened to the $2m order that was supposed to be delivered in Q4 and Q1?
RDCM on sale. Transitioning to high margin business. True earnings power hidden by one time charges in legacy business. See SA writeup(s) if interested.
Wow, so much for Greece...the market has spoken. That's a big turnaround. Not quite the -2% to +1% we had in October to signal the turnaround, but still nice.
Econ I gotta say you are a bit ambitious with your assumptions
There he goes again, another 100k shares on ask at .028. Snoopy if you want to unload a large number of shares, send me a PM we can make a deal.
SELF
SSK, thanks for the reply. I'm confused, it seems from the AR that they have already been operating as a REIT for tax purposes? It does say they are pursuing listing on the NASDAQ as a REIT.
It seems here is an arbitrage opportunity here but I don't know if we can take it as minority shareholders. It's up to management and/or the yield chasers bidding up the value of the storage units to fix the inefficiency. It's a bit funny, we have a box containing storage units yielding 7% while the units themselves yield under 5%.
Makes you wonder why management doesn't raise cash to buy back shares. If they really think their NAV is double the market price, buying back shares would provide an immediate 100% ROI to the company (i.e. the remaining shareholders). That is a much better investment than a self storage facility.
good impression, but you are missing the WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Snoopy is that you trying to unload your shares from your failed pump?
PYDS Well I missed the double with these guys but I still think it was not a good bet after the questionable acquisition in December. The company they acquired lost about 500k/yr in 3 years since inception, for a 30% dilution.
Wow did he really put the wrong date on his signature
Oh ok thanks I was not clear on the difference between an entry and a trade, I was only born yesterday you know
Masterful trade lol
So quick to give credit for winners...