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Dollar with a chokehold on the Pound Sterling the last 2 days. Is an off the top rope move next.! Lol
Good ol Boris. Lol! I was living in London when he was elected 07-08.
People seem divided on the issue. I don't think the powers that be will let it happen. Even though I am for it.
The Possible Brexit caused the Pound Sterling to take a beating today.
They sure did understand the value of an anchor. They had also been made aware of the US rampant printing of federal reserve notes and started calling in their gold reserves en masse . Mitterrand was the most memorable to me. That's a great question: where would we be had there not been the Great War and its sequel? A world of stable exchange rates, and import and export balances regulated by gold? A fed reserve note redeemable in gold? Or maybe Thomas Moore's Utopia? Lol.
Btw, I just finished reading: The Battle for Bretton Woods. By Benn Steil. I thought it was very well done. Very honest and critical of both Keynes and HDW. I was surprised since Steil is a research fellow at the CFR.
Those charts don't lie. Also, we've learned nothing from history. Gold is money. I plan on being in on the biggest gold rally in history when the fireworks go off. Playing the dollar as it continues to gain is a great play. Timing is of course everything.
It's amazing to me how quickly the Bulls managed to get up on all fours and survive a bear attack that was pretty formidable. I sold TVIX last week waiting to add at lower prices. The thing that concerns me is oil. If oil continues its downward trend it will exert a great influence on the market direction as it has of recent memory. What's your favourite dollar play?
Reminds me of a book that came out some time ago; Are We Rome, by Cullen Murphy,
http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/02/collapse-of-the-roman-empire/?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EMAIL_DAILY&utm_content=quick_link&utm_source=ValueWalk+Newsletter&utm_campaign=4e1fd879c5-%3DUTMDaily&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_299e40291b-4e1fd879c5-50168581&mc_cid=4e1fd879c5&mc_eid=cffe07e91b
Nice piece.
Maybe I was taught incorrectly a long time ago but to me this was the general paradigm of things;
It’s impossible for Western bond prices to be at all-time highs. Western nations have never been less-solvent (i.e. obviously bankrupt). The less-solvent the debtor, the higher the rate of interest the debtor is (supposed to be) forced to pay, and bond prices and interest rates are precisely inverse to each other. Interest rates should be at all-time highs, bond prices should be at all-time lows. Something stinks here. So looking at this chart, I would assume that based on the divergence in normal conditions this would presume that lower yields signal " health" but we know that this is not the case.
ZROZ responded nicely today. Do you prefer them over EDV? Ban on the 500 Euro and now the Ben Franklin being considered for retirement. Wow
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-17/ban-cash-coming-soon
I heard an interesting interview with Peter Schiff last night. He said " US treasuries are now a sub prime asset." The rush to the dollar has created an artificial strengthening of the currency and when the dollar unwinds it will unwind the US bond market with it. What do you think GLD?
Lol. Elephants never forget!
When I read stuff like this it makes my blood boil. It's so far off that it is ridiculous. I feel bad for the Main Street investor. Maybe they'll get a call from their Edward Jones advisor to make sure they are ok despite the recent volatility. Lol! See: the commercial .
Hopium from CNBC:
America's bull market may end soon, but...
February 16 NEW YORK
America's bull market may end soon, but it's not time to hit the panic button yet.
There's a 50% chance that U.S. stocks will dive into a bear market this year, according to a CNNMoney survey of top investment strategists. But most believe the fall would be short-lived.
Global stocks have already tumbled into bear territory -- a drop of 20% or more from the bull-market peak. The U.S. has come close -- investors have heard the bear growling -- but it hasn't hit that point yet.
"There is certainly a decent likelihood that the S&P 500 falls into bear market territory, but it may only be there temporarily," says Kristina Hooper, U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors.
Experts aren't alarmed, because they believe a big rebound is coming. The U.S. economy is too strong for stocks not to recover from here, they argue, especially if oil prices finally stop sliding.
They predict the S&P 500 will end the year with a gain of 2.5%, according to CNNMoney's latest survey. That would be a surge of over 11% from stocks are now.
Related: Can U.S. stocks still return 5% in 2016?
A recession is unlikely, says Hooper. Deep bear markets typically occur when a country falls into recession. Right now, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are solid.
Like many strategists, Hooper points to many healthy signs such as extremely low unemployment, cheap gas, decent retail sales and a slight increase in wages.
The U.S. economy is powered by consumer spending. If Americans continue to get jobs and higher pay, that should keep buying strong and the economy chugging along, even if China, Japan and other parts of the world struggle.
"In the absence of a recession, which we do not have and are not likely to for the next year or so, bear markets tend to be short and sharp," says Brad McMillian, chief strategist at Commonwealth Financial.
Related: 20% chance of a U.S. recession this year
So is now the time to buy stocks? Expert views vary.
"Now is the time to be a selective buyer," says Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist for U.S. Trust. He likes big companies that pay dividends. "For an investor with a three to five-year time horizon, this is a good time to increase equity exposure."
The story for much of 2015 was that stocks got expensive. The bull market, which started in March 2009, was getting tired. But the great sell-off in January has eased a lot of those fears.
The S&P 500 now trades at about 15.5 times forward earnings. That's "not at all overvalued," notes Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. To put it another way, stocks are back at valuations not seen since early 2014.
Still, Hogan wouldn't advise going all in. This is the type of market to "average in" any bets on stocks, meaning put a bit of money in at a time.
Related: Janet Yellen: Negative rates are possible in U.S.
In addition to big, high quality companies, stocks related to homebuilding are also worth a look.
"The nascent U.S. housing recovery, combined with a strongly positioned U.S. consumer, makes homebuilders, building products and materials stocks and retailers that cater to the housing market attractive in today's environment," says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.
But others, like Hooper at Allianz Global Investors, advise sitting tight.
"Although valuations have come down, they are not necessarily attractive enough to begin buying in at this point," says Hooper.
Fund managers -- people who invest for a living -- have the most cash in their funds since November 2001, according to the February Fund Manager survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
It's another sign of waiting on the sidelines to see how the coming weeks -- and maybe months -- shake out.
Hopefully the holiday euphoria ends tomorrow. My gut says yes.
The intended Donnean message to the markets is clear enough ( ' ... It tolls for thee'). Lol
Low GDP numbers and a weaker yen lead to market euphoria in Japan. I always thought that a weaker or slowing Economy effects Capex for companies which effects p/e's reinvestment and future employment and earnings. What am I missing?
Thank you
Gld- does the BDI reflect just pricing and not volume.? Thx
It's insanity if they do so. At this point I'm willing to concede that anything is possible at this point.
If this is true, and they continue a rate increase policy through 2016, would this not in effect eventually crash the dollar?
Maybe this a great indicator of predictive crashes. The oil/ gold ratio.
Thought this was thought provoking.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-11/biggest-crisis-history
“I am not aware of any legal restriction that would mean that we could not establish negative rates, but I will say that we have not looked carefully at the legal side of this,” she said Thursday.
Meaning yes we will have to implement NIRP. I'll bet my house on it.
Lol! Great story. Ursus Horribilus . Lol! Your Latin forefathers would be proud.
We will go into a Capex recession.
Lower the thermostat!
I can feel the chill??????!
So we are at the lowest possible absolute temp of -24*, what's the additional factor in the reading of -38* with the wind chill ? Thx
Janet Yellen could be our version of France's John Law of the 18c.
This sounds very interesting. And a complement to the book I recently read on Napoleon by Michael Broers. A soldier of destiny. I'm gonna order the hardcover. Thx for the recommendation.
We are truly living in an Orwellian world. It's crazy.
I would never give myself over to NIRP. 1 million dollars in 100 dollar bills is only 20 lbs. buy a safe and have gold coins in hand and wear a bullion fringe around the trim of your coat.
Tell me about the ramifications of 1% and 30 year mortgage pls.
Up 3% today very nice. SRS is one that I've been following recently. The index measures the performance of the real estate sector in the us equity index. (-2x) inverse. Which includes REITS which in certain instances are heavily levered.
He's seems to be sincere. Lol nice pic at the end. I wonder when the red giant awakens from her week of the moon holiday what she will bring to poker table.
These rally's at the end of day are starting to get on my last nerve.
King dollar and the race to the bottom. I found this an interesting read. Deflationary spiral will be a race to the bottom as countries will deleverage and flood the us capital markets and push the dollar higher.
What do you think of this scenario?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-07/crunch-time
He ran a great race.
I love cold temps! I always have. This is all great news. Have a good weekend. I'm either on the cusp of greatness or teetering on the edge of insanity.