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Calls or puts?
1:20h left in the day, I think we'll form resistance above $5 if volume plays out. That is, until the PR.
The past two weeks the trend has been for the stock to do the opposite of the premarket.
I doubt there are people out there that know more than us.
Good accumulation and decent volume at end of day. People are getting excited.
E-mailed those Biopharmcataylst yehoos. I asked them about the NWBO date situation.
Got a response surprisingly (nothing too new, just solidifies):
Hi FatCat_Banker,
Thank you for your message.
The removal of the NWBO interim analysis was an ERROR. I apologise for that but I inadvertently removed the wrong catalyst.
It's now back in the database but may take about an hour or so to actually appear.
The entry is as follows:
NWBO 4.83 144967716 Phase 3 2/4/2014 Feedback from Data Monitoring Committee due late January or early February 2014 regarding interim analysis of the Phase 3 trial of DCVax for Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain cancer
SOURCE: http://nwbio.com/first-interim-analysis-of-nw-bios-phase-iii-gbm-trial-triggered-by-reaching-required-number-of-events/
I've put Feb 4 as an estimate only. In their PR on Dec 10 they gave guidance for a release in 6-8 weeks, so Feb 4 = 8 weeks.
Regards,
Dude
It's funny because he makes it sound like it was just a mess up, but we all know the date was originally set for tomorrow. I think he/they knew it likely wouldn't occur within their posted time frame so they pushed it to the end of possibility - to sound dramatic (I'm tired).
So yeah, nothing deep and conspiracy-esque from their end.
MOD: Please delete. Double posted.
Can't link on phone. Moved again to 2-4-14.
Just Google "FDA DRUG CALENDAR" and click the biopharmcatalyst website, look for NWBO.
Keep in mind, guys/gals, longer is better.
DCVax-L DMC Phase III due 2-7-14 per the biopharmcatalyst site.
My head nearly emploded.
I can see that. Thanks for smoothing my ruffled feathers. I'm long. Time to go back to my dark hole and watch.
Yeah, I'm definitely hoping the same. And I'm definitely not trying to piss on anyone's parade.
I just see it as: Cognate entered these agreements last year. The situation now is not beneficial for production UNLESS we get our termination. This may have been provided for in warrants as a contingency. Those warrants everybody was freaking out about.
It's a good question. Any and all constructive critiques or input would really help.
No kidding. Now, any day, we should hear from the DMC to see how far ahead we are.
Watching the day trader exodus due to short attention spans makes me wish, in the event of a continuation, I had purchased lower than $4.98. Such activities, as the above mentioned, makes me see it kiss $3 when/if the ruling comes out as such.
Then we play in the $3's until the phase III concludes at year end and production starts going.
Today, 2015, we'll be looking at similar price action/prospects. Only way around it is termination due to efficacy/good will.
Makes me wonder, if there is a selloff for a continuation, and we do, in fact, start playing in the 3's, Cognante's strike price is $4. How can they operate production at a loss?
I know there's warrants, but still.
LOOOOOOOOOOONG NWBO
What I gained from your "sobering thoughts" is that we - all - would have more money in this if the blinded studies weren't intrinsically keeping information from us. We get snippets here and there and have that to base our sentiments, but we just can't and won't know.
This is, as I've said, my first go at bio.'s but not my first go at stocks. I have a laundry list - as I'm sure you all do - of successful investments. And each one of those was because I loved the fundamentals of the products a company was selling. Minus, Twitter that was just hype candy. I digress.
This company, if unsuccessful (and I doubt it - especially in the long-term), has a product that everyone should love and will help change the way cancer treatment is thought about. And that's the boat I hopped on.
Sure, a lot of companies prior were seen the same way, but, it seems, everything I've read to this point shows that NW Bio has refined the science and thought it through very well. I am not a doctor (but quite a few take loans out from me), and those I know in HoHum,Texas know of DCVax-L & Direct and are excited about their individual outcomes.
Three will come a time that we look back in history and say, "Wait, we used to poison people (chemo and radiation) to help them fight cancer?! That's kind of like doctors in the early 20th century prescribing cigarettes to cleans patients with upper respiratory infections. Or leaches to release demons in the 18th century and before." And we live in the time frame that things are changing again.
But I want to be able to look back and say, "Yes, I was there when it all changed. Yes, I *with emphasis* invested in the company that revolutionized it all. And yes, though I had a small stake, I was scared shitless." And you know what? I'd be ashamed of my self, even if this doesn't work out, if I WASN'T apart of it.
(And who knows, maybe some day soon I'll regret I didn't have a bigger position!)
We are not doctors or nurses caring for patients. We are not patients tortured by uncertainty and pain. We are businessmen passionate about the future of medicine and humanity in general with all the opportunity here. And that's a sobering thought for you, too!
I hate the phrase "I am long": length is described as the distance from its start point to its end point. There's no end to this imminent success. I am IN-to NW Bio, and I am here to stay.
Yeah, my first go. Only 230 shares. Thanks for the kind warning though ;)
So, these are milestones but are bad indicators for the overall drug trail?
Do we know how many we're at - or is that part of the blinded part?
(I'm smarter than I sound. I promise)
Can someone please give me a quick and dirty on "events"?
I've come this far and missed a step. Are they good or bad?
High enrollment is ... good. In every sense of the word.
What are y'all's secret weapon sites for monitoring stock info?
By the way, unless there's generally good economic news tomorrow, I expect a selloff. And it better not be any of you!
Peace.
1 min, $.02 LETS GO
$5.20 at start of conference. I'd like to see today end at or above $5.00
You're not in the minority. I am long as heck for this company, but not with money I'll be sad to never see again lol.
Gonna be a long week
Petrock: Date for what?
Please elaborate.
Still figuring out this board EDIT
Ok, thanks for the quick painless answer :)
Response to post on Immunotherapy Conference in Munich
What comes to mind is the company can exercise home nation rights over the shares.
If she's setting up shop in Germany (Cognate) then she can dump shares of NW, effectively ending the lock-up agreement?
Please advise.
Linda couldn't exactly pick any ol' price. I'm sure there was negotiations.
"Um, $1000/share"
No, I'm sure they voted/mutually agreed on a "fair" value.
Shoot, if I was Cognate, I wouldn't accept $5.
Options expiration Feb. 14
I share your beliefs. I want it to be a bullish indicator. It could also be (for the sake of being a Devil's advocate) to keep investor's attention in the event of a continue. It's also hedging their bets ramping up production in Germany because they, and the Brits, have a less regulated system and DCVax-L/Direct can hit the markets sooner.
For a long investor, it's good to see. If you are in for the ICPT-esque prospects, it's reason to at least hope.
One thing is for sure, Linda is a bauce!
What is yalls venue for monitoring the PR for the DMC?
-the NWBO website?
-this site?
-news feeds? (Google, CNN)?
-market sites?
I've just been hitting F5 on the Google feed for "data monitoring committee news" and on the company website like a crack addict. As well as monitoring seekingalpha, here, stocktwits, and twitter.
A near-cure for brain cancer will galvanize anything very quickly, including enrollment.
I appreciate the honest reply. I liked the prior point made that this can be used as an alternative to chemo, etc. I see a lot of longterm value as well, just worried - as I'm sure you all are - about losing 25%+ on a "continue". I'm long either way.
I am curious what "evidence" these others have too for a trail halt. What could they possibly have/know that isn't already available to us?
Not trying to rock the boat, legitimately curious.
We all know the worst case scenario. Let's up it one, let's say the DMC allows NWBO to continue trails, does this company have a long-term focus beyond DCVax-L?
Also, what are yalls honest expectations for the DMC?
New guy here. I have been in NWBO since 12-3-13. Just curious where this info from the DMC will be made available first. Thank you all, really enjoy your posts!