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You make my case Nobahamas. Arcam is a tool to industrial revolution 4.0, others including GE, are making the revolution by using a combination of tools to implement the revolution. It is too shot sighted and just plain wrong to say that Arcam IS the revolution and all others just buying in.
Not hard to analyze, Elliot's strategy Is to buy just over 10% of a Swedish company to try to extort a buyout premium from a company that wants to get 90%. Did it with axis and others and most buyers do not submit to the extortion, i.e. canon. Hope ge doesn't although I would not mind more premium for my shares But the strategy is obvious unless i'm missing something.
Wrong Tom, at least in part. The new industrial revolution in manufacturing goes beyond 3d printing and AM and includes composites, robots, computer generated design, new materials, new assembly system designs (like boeing has adopted) on demand supply and many other components. 3d printing and AM is just one aspect, albeit a major one that goes into the broad category of the new industrial evolution.
Moreover, Arcam provided just one tool towards the new industrial revolution, the EBM printer. Other companies provided laser printers and still others composites, robots, etc.
So you are dead wrong. Arcam provided one tool towards the revolution. You could argue that GE was and is more important towards the industrial revolution. Arcam provided one tool. GE took that tool and others, including composites and laser, and is using them to change the manufacturing process. Arcam has nothing to do with the actual manufacturing process although it does provide a major additive tool and helps companies use it. GE has taken ebM, other tools and is using them to design improvement in the manufacturing process, using EBM, laser, composites, robots, new designs, etc And by designing the new industrial revolution, it Is way ahead of competitors and the success of the LEAP shows it. Competitors must work had to just catch up as pw,rr and others are just testing 3d while GE is locking it up. \\at
To address other posters here, as I posted previously, I've bought some GE in anticipation of the success of this revolution. Did that as soon as the announcement.
Hey Tom, what do you think my post was about?. I did state my opinion re Arcam. Based on the regulatory language submitted, (my source,) I interpreted that as meaning everyone must be offered the same price. So what is you complaint?. All my posts set forth my authority for an opinion and then my opinion and all are related to Arcam and I think accurate. That is more than I can say for some posters. So your point??? You Need a little more comprehension or illustrate to this dumb poster what I said that was not on point.
AEF, The answer is no. If I interpreted the legal language Charlie posted (just skimmed all that noise, LOL) if GE offers a higher price to anyone within a specified time period (this tender period) it must disclose that and offer that price to everyone. So GE has a disincentive to offer anyone a premium till expiation. M. Twenton in his posts said the same thing, which is different that US law. So no they cannot offer more to the majors than to us riffraff.
Mr. twenton, must disagree with most of your points.
1. IMHO it is not a deadlock. Canon OWNS axis and can operate it which was its goal. Elliot has its money tied up, did not get the premium it tried to extort and as you indicated probably will not get bought out for even the tender price. Now, so long as the pps stays above the price Eilliot paid they will make money but how much given that there money has been parked for this period of time. That to me is a Canon win, Elliot loss as canon got what they wanted, Elliiot did not.
2.It is arguable whether you have done well by holding Axis. Assuming the pps does not appreciate further, you have tied up your money for that year to get the 10% additional profit. How does that equate in present value money, would you have done better by reinvesting the money and how about the risk that the pps might go down??? You must evaluate the present value analysis, but to me its questionable.
3. I am not an expert in Swedish or EU laws and don't know the extent of minority rights. BUT, GE can operate just fine with 50%. You say they will have to disclose technology and sell to competitors.
I say no. For example now Arcam does not disclose technology, goals, vision, strategy or operations to the world. That has been one of our complaints, how silent Rene has been. Right????
Additionally, while I don't know the legal aspects of EU/Sweden are you sure GE would be forced to sell product to competitors. Besides just refusing to sell to outsiders , how about pricing the printers out of the market, designing the technology so best suited to only GE, not marketing, etc. Seems to me there are a lot of ways not to disclose technology and not to sell to competitors or make the product attractive to competitors by owning 50% of the company and controlling the technology development and pricing. P
4. Inclusion of the company. While they would have to keep Arcam as a seperate subsidiary, it is my understanding that when they own 50% or more they can keep the expenses internal so the profit/loss statement will be better re printer and powder costs than they would when Arcam is independent. Right????
5. While the company will still be on an exchange, what dos GE care. Some additional reporting and fiduciary responsibilities, but IMHO outweighed by the ability to control the technology development, leading it towards its needs, the pricing and the sales policies which can be to the detriment of competitors.
6. Yes they can say they bought Arcam technology (they did with 50%), they can keep info/ technology private as they do now and they can control disclosure and competitor sales in ways listed above. No company is forced to sell to competitors and can set forth technology and pricing to discourage sales to others. That has been a factor in many other mergers, Right??
7. I agree on your pricing opinion but a company is valued at what others consider its worth. Maybe the fact that it was dependent on GE as a customer (see all the posts here), needed GE money or needed GE muscle affected the price.. Benefit of combination of laser and EBM and the technology that GE has in house.
8. Yes arcam will be traded on the exchange. But how does this hurt or affect GE and GE could even make a profit if the stock appreciates as you indicate.
Think that takes care of most of you points. Bottom line, I am hopeful of a higher bid but while the highest ownership percentage is best for GE, I think they would be happy with at least 50% ownership for the reasons I've specified. In the absence of a competing bid, I think they will get it as i'm of the opinion that they reached consensus with most of the major owners which is why the silence. I'm more surprised by the silence of competitors.
I'll try to answer you questions. Please see my post 4621 and other posts on this topic which I incorporate by reference. But to answer you specific questions:
Charlie, in response to some of my posts, set for the regulatory requirements in substantial detail which I humorously referred to as noise since they did not answer my specific questions. Knew I would get a response, LOL
But while the legal language specifies that reports must be made as certain ownership thresholds are reached, I am not persuaded how accurate those data points are and have concluded that NO we will not know where the GE ownership situation stands till the expiration date or last minute as you put it.
The only regulatory statement we have is 9/6/16 which was posted by charlie and showed GE with a 14.8% circa ownership. I cannot believe there has not been any change in significant ownership since 9/6/16 and obviously there will be some lag period. Additionally, we don't know whether tender shares are reported since the tender can be revoked nof do we know how many shares may have been informally committed to GE by existing shareholders. For example where did Oppenheimer shares go, so far no Elliot filing. Obviously there has been more action than that one filing shows.
Moreover, in answer to another of you questions, many holders won't decide till the last minute whether to sell/tender and will decide at the last minute even if for the 285. I've don't that, sold some of my shares at 35+ and holding the rest in case a higher counterbid is made. My risk, despite some saying there is no risk, is that a counter bid won't come in and I won't get the 35+ that I got for some of my shares.
So IMHO we won't know till the expiation date, the last minute, how any shares will/have been tendered, what ownership percentage GE has and whether existing shareholders will tender for the 285. And no, no one knows exactly where GE stands and won't know till the expiration when tenders become final and we see how many existing shareholders have consensus with 285. As stated elsewhere, I am amazed at the lack of noise or counterbids and the only reasons for that are that they have consensus agreements with GE, are happy with the price which Charlie and others say is way too low or will act later which is why I've held some shares.
As stated before for the reasons posted, I think GE will accept less than 90% and maybe as low as 50.1% as they will have control of the technology, timing, direction of the technology and keeping expenses in house. Also can exclude competitors from the technology if they wish. I, and others, will wait till the last minute to decide finally how to play, even if we will ultimately accept 285, in hopes of a higher bid and NO you will not know the exact extent of GE ownership till the last minute because of revocable tendered shares and undisclosed informal agreements, the contrary statement of some posters not withstanding. Remember the Mr. Twenton example, Elliot tried the same extortion and cannon accepted 86% despite the 90% language while Elliot was stuck with their 10.1%. Same could happen That would be a ge win, not deadlock.
The ownership numbers are not arbitrary. With 90% they can force all to sell, with 50% they have control of the company and between these points they have various rights vs minority rights.
Its up to GE what ownership percentage they will accept but I think minimum will be 50% and they will be happy with less than 90%,
Hope this answered you questions and that's why its so interesting, till its over its still an open issue. Other questions??
Nobahamas, The question is moot. Since this is a tender, and not a competing bid situation, the only price is 285. You either tender at 285 or not. The notification by the broker is only setting forth the existence and terms of the tender offer.
As posted, IMHO GE will accept less than 90% for the reasons I set forth and yes unless a competing offer comes in and the board changes its opinion, it is moot.
Yes and No, Cleos. The GE offer was conditioned on ge getting 90% so they can force a liquidation of the remainder shares. BUT, the offer clearly states that GE can modify or extend the offer. This means that while GE could walk away, it can also accept less than 90%, say 50% where it would still own and control the company and keep costs in house. Elliot could easily get over 10%, precluding the 90% like it did with the example provided by Mr. Tweeten (sp) where Elliot took 10.1% and canon got 86% and was happy with that, refusing to pay Elliots extortion. We don't know how GE will act but as I said in response to him, I would expect GE to take less than 90% if its close to that number and maybe settle for just 50% and that would keep costs in house and give it control over the technology direction and timing. Also could shut out competitors if it wished.
In answer to you 1st part. I was notified of the tender by Scott on Saturday, but still have not been notified by Merill and don't own shares in my Fidelity. But of course no action is a no as there is no vote and its all dependent on what holders tender. No tender, no move towards the 90%.
Bottom line if the 90% is not met, its up to GE to accept or not. Arcam's board, now that it voted yes, is out of the picture. A lot depends on whether EU or counter bidders come into play but the silence so far is deafening with only Elliot, as usual, trying to extort a buyout like its done several times. As with other buyers, GE probably will not give in to the extortion and be happy with somewhat less then 90%, how much less is an open question. So no, the only two options, as one poster said, are not walking away or raising the bid. Ge can accept less than the 90% and we shall see how it acts.
And to answer those posters who say there is no risk, I feel the risk as the pps is weak and I did not sell all at 35+. That is the risk I choose by only selling part and we shall see how the risk turns out for me and you and others who did not sell ALL at 35+.
A key question is how many shares have been committed, formally/informally to GE or have been tendered and that tender not revoked. Despite all that legal language offered in other posts, we do not know the answer to that question nor does any poster. I'm not sure if tendered shares are reported since it can be revoked and we don't know how many shareholders might have reached a consensus with GE informally despite all that regulatory language. Oppenheimer has acted and they held over 15%. I can't believe GE did not get consensus on price. I cannot believe that no action has been made since that 9/6 filing showing GE had 14+% shares. Unless GE is dumb, and they are not, I must believe that they had significant consensus on the price with existing shareholders before the offer, perhaps informally so as not to invoke regulatory action or maybe there is a lag. We shall see but to me the silence suggests that shareholders either have consensus, are happy with the price, which most posters deny is adequate or they will act later but time is running out.
An insightful analysis and more on point than many here. The possibility of guiding and accelerating the technology pace and the need for revenue to support it (all that ge capital money) provides a solid reason for buying the company rather than just the printers. Also keeps all the money for the OEMs and powder in house. And don't forget that the argument is made even more pronounced by its buying of SLM so it can control the technology advances in the laser realm as well. By controlling both it can insure that the pace of 3d technology and its needs is not only apace but also in the direction it wants. A solid reason for buying the company. I'm not sure if the case would be as compelling if it was only buying EBM as so far GE has more uses for laser than EBM. But controlling both, and being able to pick and develop the best of each, on each item, suited for its own needs, is compelling.
But the same positive reasons are negative for competitors, especially if GE decides to withhold the technology, so i'm still surprised at the silence so far. Despite all those legal notices set forth in numerous posts, I've got to think that shares are being locked up and tendered besides the 14.8% reflected in the 9/6/16 filing posted below. For example, that poster alluded to only one filing but hasn't Elliot acquired 6% and hasn't Oppenheimer committed. Despite all that legal language, got to think shares have been tendered and/or informally committed since 9/6/16. As I've said, we don't know the extent but common sense says some shares have been tendered since 9/6. Additionally, the only explanations for the silence are 1. there is consensus between the sharehholders and ge, 2. they are happy with the price or 3 . it will come towards the expiation date. We shall see.
To address some of the posts below, and maybe I am talking semantics but:
Mr. Twenton, there is risk. The risk is that an individual will get less for their shares than they could get. For example, I and many sold some at high 34 and 35+. If the price stays where it is today we will have lost that premium on the shares we did not sell. That is a risk.
Trader: you must have a novel idea of what a substantially lower price is. As you have on some of the other topics in you posts which I've addressed. I don't now your exact buy/sell points, but since the announcement and your posts there was not a big move from when you posted your sale and your buy. So you could not have bought back at what I consider a significantly less price.
Charlie: You still have not answered how you can know up to the minute how any shares have been tendered to date or how many shares GE may have locked up formally/informally to date as those shares may not have technically been bought as yet. Can change mind till expiration date and till formally bought may not have to file. But still count towards reaching the magic goals at least till revoked.
Even more importantly, you have not addressed my point re why no noise from competitors or shareholders. You state the price is woefully low, but unless the shareholders have committed to GE or achieved a consensus with them Or they think the price is very fair, unlike you, why no noise. Now the noise may be forthcoming in the next few weeks but in my experience it is usually soon after the announcement to prevent tendering. All the legal language posted does not address why the silence unless there is agreement or happiness.
M. Tweeter: You are wrong that this might end in a deadlock using your example of AXIS. That deal did not end in deadlock, Canon won. Unless you can show me wrong. Yes Elliot blocked the 90% and forced sale of the stock and delisting as Elliot may well do here. But canon owns over 86% of the shares and Elliots money is locked up and they have no control over the company except what their ownership might entitle them too in minority rights So Cannon is free to operate the company and Elliots money is tied up and they will not derive any additional profit unless the pps goes up. To me this is not a deadlock, this is a Canon win with an Elliot annoyance. The same might happen here as Elliot owns cica 6.5% of the company and may well own over 10% now. As I said to Charlie, we don't know at least so far. He posted that he does???
I know the offer is contingent upon getting 90%. But if I were GE, i'd take ownership, over 50% of the company, not raise my bid and like Axis let Elliot just stew with their 10% ownership and money tied up as I operate and benefited from owning Arcam and eventually getting more shares. JMHO but GE's savings in keeping OEM and powder costs in house would more than benefit them in owning the company plus they could still steer the technology and all other aspects of the company as minority owners simply watch.
Hey Charlie, knew that phraseology would get a response. LOL You are predictable.
My points, which of course you did not address. We do not now how many shares have been tendered or committed, at least I've not read any post/source that says so. I know some have been sold/tendered or do you opine that none have been tendered/committed. Even one moves us toward some unknown point towards 50%, a number you do not know despite you claim that you do.
My Second point
Moreover, are you not surprised that major shareholders have not squawked about the price which you claim is so so so low, expecting 600 rather than 285 unless there was some agreement or consensus between GE and the major shareholders as well as the board??? Don't you see this issue which goes beyond the language you quoted and raises speculative issues. Which is all I was saying. All the legal language you quoted extensively does not address this point.
Bottom line. GE is someways toward the 50 and 90% levels and we don't know how far it is towards those levels. It has at least the 15% it began with. And don't you think it surprising that, unless the current sharehholders reached a consensus with GE or think the price was fair which you dispute, it is surprising that there has not been any counterbid or squawk. Now it may come in the next few weeks, but I am surprised it hasn't happened yet. The legal language you quoted so extensively does not address these issues. Which is why I called it nonsense, could have called it moot to the issues raised.
So you can continue posting legal language but that does not address the silence which was my point and the intent of my post.
Enough on these issues until you can tell us exactly how many shares have been tendered as of the date of you post so you can say truthfully that you know how far GE is toward its goal and can explain the silence of the major existing shareholders. Simply citing generic legal language does not do it, at least IMHO.
Thanks Charlie, you gave me a lot of verbage which may or may not be relevant. I know nothing about EU merger laws and I was just informed about the merger from one of my brokers Saturday and still silence from the other.
However, I stand by my statement. For all we know, that means we don't know. We do not know how many shares have been tendered and there will always be a reporting lag. But a lot of the posters have, including me, tendered some so that supports that we don't know how far we are along towards the 50%. Right??? We are somewhat towards that point.
Moreover, I think some posts have indicated that Oppenheimer, the largest shareholder is favoring the merger. So that tells us two things, if true 1. That some of the institutions have tendered or agreed to tender which also supports that we are on the way towards 50% but we don't know how far and 2. Given the silence of the large shareholders, and what we know about oppenheimer if the above is true, some of them either agreed to tender before or very shortly after the deal and have not squawked about the pps. It would seem to me that if agreement had not been reached, there would have been some noise, but that is my speculation.
Bottomline, thanks for all the regulatory nonsense. But we don't know exactly how many shares have been tendered, but a bunch have including ours, and we don't know how far we are on the way to 50% and given the silence either the bid was very fair or many of the shareholder were quieted for some reason. you can speculate. I will speculate that gE had a petty good idea this price would be accepted. I speculated that agreement had been reached because of the quick Oppenheimer agreement as stated by some posters and the silence of others. But that is why I used equivocal language, for all we know, and did not make the kind of definitive statement others do and you attacked. How can you dispute for all we know when its obvious we don't and there would be a lag in regulatory filings. But then, you state you DO know up to this minute.
Hey trader, looks like you may be right this time. As posted elsewhere, I am surprised by the merger action and explained why in other posts. Unless someone speaks/acts soon, and maybe GE was smart enough to lock things up before the offer, the thing is done. Because of the merger action could not understand your early total sell and then inexplicable buy back way above the tender price, but then many actions/opinions of yours have not been supported by events. But I agree, unless there are other factors, such as the EBM technology is not as desired as we think, competitors have decided to go another way, money needed or something else we don't know, I am shocked at the lack of EU, competitor or even other hedge funds besides Elliot making noise and suggesting competition and a higher bid. But we must adopt to what actuality is and that is so far, almost 2 weeks into about a month bid, except for Elliot silence reigns and the pps has acted accordingly.
Tom, Who says GE didn't. We don't know how many shares GE bought just before the offer and before the mandatory reporting periods, how many they locked up with existing owners before the announcement such as Oppenheimer, etc and how many shares have already been tendered. For all we know GE is well on its way to 50% and even 90% so far and there are not that many shares still available. Elliot has 6% or more per their PR but so far, unlike other mergers I've been in, there does not seem to be a lot of other funds or competitors making any noise to move the pps up and cause holders not to tender and to my abject surprise so far the EU has been silent as well. This has been unusual but the silence, the fact that the tender date is nearing and the pps movement suggests there may not be action and we should have sold all in the 35s. We shall see but while I've sold some more in the 35s, still holding a bunch waiting for the end game.
Disagree Mr. Twenton. The time for that type of discussion was before the deal was made public so that GE would have its ducks in order at whatever the agreed price was to avoid bid appreciation. I think GE became in synch with the major holders of arcam, and its board, before the offer and that is why so much silence. The only noise is being caused by hedge funds that want to speculate.
Why would any buyer want to see/encourage counter bids that will simply raise the buy price. Unless i'm missing something, I don' see you logic.
And where I think you are further wrong is to opine that a significant appreciation in the initial bid is to be expected when more than one week later not even a hint of one has been raised. It looks like ge had consensus before the deal and your speculation doesn't make sense among existing holders.. But I have opined why competitors may make a move in other posts. But time is passing.
One comment, couple of questions.
First the comment. I've been involved in many mergers and this one is surprising me. Usually, they fall into two camps. 1. The pps goes up to near the offing price and stays there because of the lack of competition. 2. The pps goes up to near the offering price, then further up as competing bids are made/hinted at and the new buyers turn to the media to pump up the PPS and discourage shareholders from tendering their shares. My surprise here is that while the pps pumped up on new bid speculation, I've given my opinions in other posts, there has been utter silence from government and competitors and certainly no competing bid. In fact the only pps appreciation support has come silently from hedge funds and existing holders. Silence from competitors and government is deafening. So the pps is showing weakness back to the offering price. Any suggestions why the silence????
Now the questions. Charlie and others with a lot more knowledge in the field, couple of questions. 1. Too your knowledge, is the Sigma quality control software the only non destructive quality control software approved by the FAA as some claim. I have not head that and am curious.
2. Do you think the Sigma quality control software, which operates on an in system flow basis adds benefit to the 3d printing process and towards the regulatory approval process and
3. Considering that GE has development contacts with Sigma, do you think Sigma's purchase by GE probable. Odds?
Just answer if you have current knowledge or opinions as additional time spent is not justified. I do appreciate any comments on these interesting topics.
Followed the plan you used. Sold some, ALL above the GE price and am holding the rest for the reasons specified in other posts.
I've enumerated the reasons why I think a higher offer may be forthcoming and the EU danger. Given that 2 of its more successful companies, one at least supported by EU money, I might well be unhappy with this merger but think it will be beneficial to arcam and its future as well as to GE and the USA
As far as valuation is concerned. You all know how bullish I've been on arcam. The one reason why this may be a good valuation and not on the cheap is the company simply did not have the capital to finance the growth and the technology investments that the company needs to grow. Rene was so quiet and secretive that we don't know if thee were financial constraints and whether put simply the Ge money was needed. If it was, the deal may be fairly valued/ If not, its probably on the cheap but how long would we have had to wait. Remember, all those trader comments about how arcam was doing so poorly, needed to sell 10 printers a month and would be overcome by competitors and technological advances. We may never know but will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Now that we are more than a week into the game, kinda shocked that we have head no competition offers or comments from government or competitors. The silence has been deafening except for the hedge funds which just want to speculate.
You got to be kidding 8 competing owners with different priorities and goals and all wanting to enhance their interests and kill their competitors. I cannot imagine them even picking the company leaders without fragmentation much less company policy and priorities. If capacity is taxed, who gets the printers fist and when. If different technology or tweeks are needed to get a product to market, whose gets the priority and funds. Come on, if there wee 8 or 9 owners they probably only would be as effective as Congress and I would not wish that on my worst enemy. At least GE as owner would focus arcam on one of the major manufactures adopting AM as their production choice.
Something to consider:
GE offer was for 285 SEK conditioned on getting over 90% of the shares so it can force the sale of the rest and get 100% of the company. of course it can modify these terms.
However, Elliot, other institutions and almost all of the shares traded since the announcement have been above the offering price. So these after announcement buyers will not be happy if they have to tender at the 285 tender price and take a significant loss. So they, and they own over 10% of the float as Elliot itself owns almost 6.5%, have an incentive to hold out and not tender at the offering price. How much more they will want is open to question. Remember also that the premium is not as much as many have intimated. Not too long ago, Arcam sold at 27 and only went down because of a bad ER and market conditions. So 33ish Is not that huge of a premium from 27.
So we have a question. Will the new buyers, almost all since the announcement, be willing to take a haircut at 285, will GE raise its tender to 310ish, the pps that many bought arcam at after the announcement or accept less than 90%. Will the EU intervene or will GE walk away not wanting to pay much over 285. That is the question.
Zzz you misunderstood me. I only said that board and regulatory approval were 2 seperate things. And even with board approval, the regulators could negate. I did not ever say that a counter bid would not happen. In fact, in other posts I raised that strong possibility and indicated that I was withholding half my position in case that happened. I hope it does and agree the smell is in favor of at least some actions and the new buy by Elliot supports that position. Note also the EU and competitors have been silent. We shall see but please quote me accurately, I'll take 400 sek and have retained a lot of shares in case that happens. But don't say that the board cannot recommend on its own volition.
Tom, depending on what standard you use, computers have been a great time saver. No one can dispute that in my opinion. Computers allow us to handle a lot more data vey quickly and to keep track and be informed so much more quickly. Heck, just using this board as an example, I'm able to garner a lot more and diverse informaton here thanks to the computer than I would ever have been able to do with word of mouth or newspapers. The only way computers have caused us to take more time is because we are now handling a lot more data points and quicker than before but even then computers make it a lot more efficient.
Hey ZZZ, isn't the same issue valid in USA and EU. Board has nothing to do with approval. Here, the board of a company can vote in favor of a merger, then the antitrust regulators can veto it. Happens all the time and usually a significant time lag between board action and regulatoy action. Right??? So yes, downside. Board appoved but EU antitrust commissioner can negate just like GE/Honeywell and almost the Alstom deal.
Boy, Charlie, I, you and we have been saying the same thing as the analyst quotes you provided. Just read my posts the last two days on the GE benefits and near monopoly and competitor fears. And I said that days ago and am not a professional in the field and don't get paid for it. Maybe I, we, should be the paid analysts. LOL Just a thought when a now see in print what we've already said.
Loved the SSYS quote: Additive manufacturing will be a large part of 3d printing. HUH???? I thought additive manufacturing was 3d printing. And ssys does not even print In metal so on this topic its irrelevant .
I hope so as have been a fan of Sigma for several years. And why not comment on its partnership with ge and the fact that GE and Honeywell have been testing the software for several years. Additionally, if it works as touted, the Sigma software will provide the data points to satisfy the regulators that the part being manufactured by 3d individually meets the regulatory standard on a flow basis. If it works as planned, that will save a lot of money, time and ease approvals. Since GE intends to use its printers in highly regulated quality controled sectors, such in depth quality control might be vey beneficial. So I hope that GE does make sigma its crowning 3d achievement. But the software is still being developed and not battle tested yet.
The risk is losing the premium above the tender offer we have had. To avoid that, I've sold some in the high 34s and 35+. With the downturn yesterday also had some sold via stop losses but still retain a bunch. So your risk is that no competition bid will come and you will lose the premium that we got. Our risk is that we sold our above premium shares too soon and will miss the higher premium on those sold shares if that happens. I've tried to play both scenerios. Fun game. I've given my reasons for a competing bid but we will see and now almost a week later no noise of one happening.
Agee with most of your points. On valuation, remember not long ago arcam reached a new high of 27ish and only went down because of market conditions and the bad last ER showing poor sales. So the premium was not as large as many imply. In other posts, which I incorporate by reference, I've enumerated the advantages GE is getting, the EU concern and the concerns of the competitors which might suggest more bids but we will see. I hope you 20% higher bid comes to pass and i'm playing it both ways, insuring a higher than tender sale price and holding open the opportunity of greater appreciation which may/may not come to pass.
But on the GE side, it is one of the major customers which gives it leverage and Arcam might not have the leverage to maintain its technology edge and develop the capacity to produce machines in the numbers needed. It might take a lot of money to support arcam's growth, money that such a small company does not have without a lot of dilution in selling shares. Acam also was complaining about its inability to get and attract the people needed and perhaps its isolation in Sweden was a detriment. Would be interesting to know if one of the reasons Renee moved to the USA was this deal as it was obviously in the works for some time. I hope for a higher bid, but think arcam needs the additional clout and money to reach its potential and will be happy with my one and two baggers if a higher deal does not happen. Have banked some and still open on others to see what will happen but given that the tender is scheduled to end in Oct, time is short. But remember, the competition just became cognizant of this deal so it needs time to assess the options. We shall see. Re the other 3d OEMs remember they are mostly non metal and have not been discussed re aviation, medical, automotive or the other big 3d movers. I would not be quick to buy them
I could be wrong but don't think unsold/untendered shares will be converted to GE shares. You may just get stuck with untendered shares if you don't tender. May have to buy some GE directly to participate in the post tender future. I am. I decided on selling in pieces with graduated limit orders and so far working out except have missed some of the high prices, a few cents more. But keeping a bunch in case a bidding war erupts. Remember this is just announced and competitors are probably keeping long hours deciding what to do. But will have all shares sold by the tender offer and have put in stop losses so will definitely sell all above the tender price. Keep moving the stop loss up as pps goes up. So protected on the top and bottom scenerios. Good luck to you, its a nice problem to have as all shares will be sold at well over a one bagger Original shares at 15, have a bunch at 11 as well when some were posting multiple times that the pps would go to 10 and below. Nice to be vindicated. Well miss this board after the tender ends and correcting all the nay sayers. Arcam has vindicated us all and bet it continues with the additional GE money and people as well as guaranteed customers
I think GE has done more than buying time. 1. It has the financial muscle and business clout to develop and expand the technology of both EBM and laser and if I recall SLB has been doing well in the laser arena. GE will be the only company to have in house access to both laser and EBM and can offer a total solution to both its subsidiaries and competition. 2. It has been working with 3d for longer than competition so those current employees and human resources may be able to help both companies with their development. 2. GE now is both an OEM manufacturer and user which will aid development and provide economies of scale. 3 recall all those analysts who shouted how HP would take over the market with its non metal 3d printer because of its dominant position and financial resources. A printer that does not even exist, does not print mental and is untested, unlike the printers sold by the companies GE bought. Now GE has more money, a more dominant position, has metal printers who can be used in many developing sectors and has the advantage of using the product as well 4. By buying arcam and its subsidiaries it now has a lock on the powder and contact manufacturing sectors as well as the OEM market, both laser and EBM. If the arcam powder is actually the best and cheapest as some claim, competitors must now go to GE to get it. That must bug them. Don't think any other 3d OEM company has quality excess powder like arcam and now GE has. 5. GE has the money and clout to defend any patents and to pay for R and D to keep ahead of competition and develop and improve current technology.
To me, if handled right, GE has not only insured is own 3d place but has the best chance to dominate the 3d metal sector. After all, can anyone name a major metal competitor except for private EOS and they do not have EBM, contact printing or powder. I will take some of my profits and buy some GE and maybe Alcoa as well. Those two sound like they have a handle on future 3d part manufacturing and all the advantages that technology portend.
Any one else have any other recommendations for the manufacturing part sector in the aviation, medical, automotive and oil/gas industri3es.
On another topic, anyone have suggestions on how to play the sell game. PPS is over the tender price and I've been gradually selling a little, but sadly less than 35 so far, in the high 34s. Not as good as those that got 35+. Give them credit. But still have well over half betting on the EU antitrust and competitors not wanting to let GE tie up the metal 3d sector. But any price over the tender price is attractive. Any suggestions?????? Have current sell limit orders in place at various prices over 35 but again not for all shares. Some even above 36. We shall see
Arcam has and is expanding its powder capacity markedly. It can handle its EBM printer needs as well as competitor needs and now GE has locked in that supply.
On another front, remember over one year ago, all the analysts and media were a twitter over HP and its 3d printer, saying it would take over the market and kill all competitors. Well one year later, that printer does not exist and how do these pundits think about GE locking up the only EBM OEM printer manufacturer and one of the hottest sexiest laser 3d printer OEM manufacturer. With the ge money and clout, and its position in the manufacturing industry, GE has a much better chance of locking up the sector than HP ever had Remember the HP proposed printer has not been tried or proven itself, it does not print metal and GE arguably has a lot more money, clout and actually uses the printers in its own manufacturing. Who has and is tying up the 3d printer market better, GE or HP. I bet on GE and all the competitors that plan on using 3d must be quaking in their boots as GE ties up not only the OEM metal printing market but also a large part of the titantium powder market. That could lead to some antitrust and competitor angst and attempts to derail the deal
Good analysis. GE went even beyond my vision. By locking up EBM and the hottest laser OEM, GE now has a near monopoly in the OEM 3d metal printing sector. Besides Pvt EOS can anyone name a major remaining competitor in the metal field that competes with the two companies GE bought. Now the question is whether the EU will allow GE to buy the 2 sexiest european 3d OEM metal companies and will competitors allow ge to have a near monopoly in the sector. However, short term I'll take the 55 percent premium and hold to see what the EU and competitors will do. Because this is a tender, the pps is essentially locked in.
I'll take a 55% premium but am surpised at the offer and arcam's acceptance as it seems low given its progess. But GE is doing something I had not anticipated, its trying to lock up the 3d market, EBM and one of the more exciting laser companies. So given that GE is going for a quasi monopoly Ln 3d, and given its pledge a year ago to go 60% 3d manufacturing It now makes sense. Buying Arcam alone didn't make sense, but buying both and locking up the sector makes a lot more sense. But am surprised arcam accepted this price and we shall see how the EU reacts given its subsidies to arcam and that gE is buying TWO leading companies. Remember it already blocked GE in its Honeywell merger and gave it a lot of hassle with the French wind company merger. This may not be a done deal from an antitust standpoint nor from r companies which may not want to see ge take such a dominant position in 3d manufacturing. We shall see, but will be fun and we have made a lot of money
I agree with you. A part of a huge market is fine with me, especially as it is growing and EBM is being considered for more parts. It amazes me that some still are shocked when Arcam announces that the 4th quarter will be its strongest as that has always been the case. Just how the flow works. I'm also impressed with the amount of new parts and companies investigating and using EBM . While things are slower than I would like, there are a lot of positives out there and one should not see a bogey man around every corner.
I did not post an ER prediction this quarter as the lack of info was too great and I would have been very wrong had I posted my premliminary assessment as the quarter, sales and deliveries, were worse than I expected, but the overall news is still very positive and as even the bogey men fearers should know the 4th quarter is our key quarter. Overall I'm pleased with the progess, albeit slow, that arcam is making but still wish there was more info and guidance provided.
Trader, see you fear more bogey men for Arcam You sure post a lot about your trades and the bogey men you fear
Bottom line Trader to ease your fears, so far no competition on the EBM front and it appears EBM is doing just fine, the EBM train has not left the station.
And to be more accurate it appears that all of the major aircaft engines, except the LEAP, are having problems causing buyers to cancel aircaft buys. The PW on the airbus and now the rolls royce engine. Only one which has had no problems so far is the LEAP which despite all those posts of yours that the LEAP train has left the station, it looks like arcam will have a part, a fact that you now admit. Maybe rather than seeing bogey men at every turn, you should just watch as arcam makes progess. Now I would have liked more sales at the last Er, but so far things do look good with new parts being developed and positive articles in the aviation and medical sectors.
And maybe you should stop seeing mergers at every turn as well You've been posting about arcam merging for over a year which I have negated. Fist why would arcam merge with any company as it has a growing EBM field to itself. Second, after all the money the EU has given to arcam, why would they allow merging. Third, why would any company want to merge with arcam for the price it would demand when it can get the benefits by just buying a printer. You really think GE, which is primarily laser and already bought one 3d company wants to buy arcam?. Same with Alcoa which is playing both ebm and laser and why take on the risks and demands of the arcam play when it can simply buy and experiment with individual printers.
Think of the logic before you fall in love with mergers and fear bogey men. Every new competitor and technology is not a death threat to Arcam. For a small company arcam is progessing just fine, albeit slower than we all would like.
Trader, the answer is simple. Just like there is a difference between the competition you have read about that are in different markets than arcam and those that actually compete with arcam, there is a difference between types of parts. The example you quoted, a gear box, can be easily printed and then used. Di Santo prints medical implants that require FDA approval and are held to a higher standard. Much easier to simply print a gear box than a knee implant. Do you not understand that difference??. But you say it should be as easy for Di Santo to print a medical implant as a gear box?. Huh. That is one reason why Di Santo does not have as many new part stories.
Great for APC sales now how many EBM printers will Airbus need to get to that level. Simply needing printers does not help Arcam except in material sales. We need EBM parts and i'm hoping, but doubt it, that we will get some guidance of additional parts being lined up for EBM printing in the aerospace field. So far a lot of promise, a lot of companies saying their are testing and developing EBM made parts but so far no official announcements of actual EBM parts besides blades being readied for actual airplane production use. But I am very optimistic as all of you know from my posts
Tom, thanks for your reply and analysis. Seems to be compelling except for perhaps very short term fluctuations in sentiment and different closing times. But I defer to your analysis. Kinda depressing that USA sentiment and motivation does not have any primary impact on our USA shares but if your argument holds, and it is compelling given my limited knowledge, looks like we are truly baby arcam which simply follows our daddy arcam. So heres to positive actions with daddy arcam to make us some money and heres to positive foreign exchange factors. Never thought i'd root for a socialistic northern European country for my financial well being. LOL
Tom I have no direct knowledge in foreign currency matters or currency conversions. So I may well be wrong. But I understand how papa arcam reacts to the Swedish market and currency.
But since baby arcam which I own is sold on a US exchange for us buyers, i'm not sure that the foreign currency rules govern baby arcam's pps to the extent that you currency guruhs suggest. Now obviously when the ADR was set up, our shares represent a certain percentage of ownership which fluctuates with the perceived worth of the company. I understand that.
BUT, baby arcam is also governed by basic supply and demand within the USA market. So even if the currency falls, IF the American buyers decide to buy while European buyers are not, would not baby arcam go up regardless of what the currency does. In other words, while currency is a factor in the pps, are not the market demands within the USA also a factor and might not those trump currency on any given day I defer to your perceived expertise in the matter but unless fundamentals are explained away I must conclude that USA buyer demand and fundamentals might trump currency factors on any given day. I have seen papa and baby arcam diverge on some days and have greater movements than the other both up and down on other days.
But since the brexit has not even begun, and finalization might take 2 years, I do not understand these strong market moves. I also don't understand, even if tariffs are placed on arcam machines not at all guaranteed, why the price has fallen this far, this fast unless it is just overaction by panicked traders.
Rightly or wrongly, we are seeing a revolt against establishment leadership globally which the polls and of course the establishment does not fully realize. In many country's and especially England and the usa, we are seeing a revolt against the establishment that believes in trade agreements and unfettered immigration for whatever seemingly justifiable reason that results in a loss of job opportunities and confidence that their country is progressing as it should. Does any one doubt that it was the immigration crisis, leading to mass refugee and immigrant infestation and demand for free welfare that was a major reason for the breexit as well as the rise of the Donald. The voters have had enough with the unilateral establishment actions. Brussels telling Britain that they had to accept an unlimited number of immigrants and pay for them and Obama, et all saying they would not enforce the immigration laws and wanted to allow an increasing number of middle east refugees regardless of the effectiveness of the vetting and protection process as more and more evidence shows that ISIS is using the refugee crisis to infiltrate. People are scared re their culture, economic security and their global safety in light of the terrorism occurring world wide since the Arab Spring was supported by the USA. Now you can agree or disagree with the validity of the impressions and viewpoints, but does anyone doubt that these are major issues behind the trump and breexit phenonoms.
On the arcam and market reactions, I understand markets do not like uncertainly, but why such a move when there will be no impact for 2 years as exit negotiations resolve themselves and many impacts may not even occur with favorable negotiating that will be in the best interest of both parties. But given the total disregard of both the Republican and Democratic establishments for the voters and their welfare, one should not be surprised with the breexit vote and however the US votes in November. Voters worldwide are in full rebellion. Just look at the votes in other countrys where radicals either have won or barely lost after scaring the establishment. Enough on politics lets hope arcam turns around tomorrow. But as we are learning, the general media is not recognizing the anti establishment movement to the extent warranted.