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NEO - similar thoughts
I see a shakeout over the next two-three weeks that will dip below the lower November 2012 channel. Then there would be a 4-6 week zigzag rally into early April for a final top of the ending diagonal in the SPX since the 2009 lows.
The TRANsports look like they have completed their ending diagonal since 2002. Buy puts at the closest strike price that expire 3 months from now.
Chuck,
I'm looking at a top forming.
From an E-wave view, RUT and TRANs have been in an ending diagonal since 2002/2003. INDU and SPX has been in a very choppy advance since 2009, either corrective or an ending diagonal. NDX made a motive wave in the DotCom crash, and looks to be making a double zigzag bear market rally, which is nearly complete.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=spx&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F4%2F2013&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=33&y=9
Other indicators support a topping process. The VIX is at historic lows, signalling no fear. The SPX broke the Sept 2012 high, but the relative strength index is weaker than in 2012. Volume has been flat over the last 6 months.
"Fundamentals" are: Increase of 401k withdrawal / cashout by those who are too young to retire. Regular retirees who will rely on their 401k for income (selling pressure). Whole life insurance cashout is increasing ( I have a friend in the business). 10% drop in car sales in Europe. Colleges loan default rate is still increasing and is now at historical highs. $1T Federal government borrowing over the last 4 years has not grown the economy proportionately, the multiplier is declining. Pushing on a string.
Social behaviors are trending toward negativity as indicated by dark and violent movies. Bikini's are being replaced by one-piece bathing suits. And the US is trending toward a military state, if not in the beginnings of wave 3.
The fundamental are giving a HUGE bearish divergence signal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p08712175853
Dow Intraday E-wave
Off the low on Thursday, January 10 the transports have made an overlapping rally. Maybe an ending diagonal?
Other indicators support the formation of a near term top:
RSI and Stochastics are well into the overbought area.
The bollinger bands have been widening; however, the price is lagging the upper band rise.
Volume is nothing special despite a 15% rally in 2 months.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=djta&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F4%2F2013&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
DOW Transports
I came across this report by Sy Harding "Transportation Stock Breakout Is a Good Omen for Economy". Using Elliott Waves I come to a completely different conclusion.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/sy-harding/transportation-stock-breakout-good-omen-economy
Harding's timeframe of interest is 2011 and 2012. In both the SPX and Transports, the rally off the 2011 low to early 2012 high is a zigzag. This is NOT the pattern of a breakout rally. The rest of 2012 the transports was in a triangle, also NOT a launchpad for a sustained rally.
When I look at the Transports on a 20 year timeframe, I still see no major rally in the future. Starting in 1998 there was a 5 year, WAVE 4 triangle. That means there is only one more wave UP of the same degree. Starting in early 2003 I see a 10 year, well defined, HUGE ending diagonal that could top any day. Even though I strongly disagree with Harding's analysis, he has helped me reduce my time searching for a high probability, low risk short set-up.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=djta&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F13%2F2013&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=54&y=16
SPX Futures In a Corner
The price of the SPX futures is at the corner of converging channel lines. The price is going to make a sharp move one way or another.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=SPH13&data=Z15&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Kenl -ED since late 2002
RUT may be ending an ending diagonal (since 2002) with an ending diagonal (since late 2010). Once the ED^2 completes, the index should fall to the 350 area with 18 months. Wave 5 is near the upper trendline.
I "know" markets are near a top just by observing my own mood. When I'm happy, I buy things or dream about starting projects.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=rut&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F4%2F2013&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=43&y=22
USD on the Launch Pad
The US dollar is setting up for a bullish cross, that is when the 50 dma goes above a rising 200 dma.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p05135415971
If grandma can't make money in her savings account, the next best thing is to gain spending power.
Fiscal Cliff E-wave Update
The passage of a deal to avert the fiscal cliff does not change any of the longer term e-way counts. The rally off the mid December lows in the US markets can be counted as a corrective zigzag in a larger bear market, or Wave 5 of an ending diagonal in a bull market.
How Coincidental
The wave from Wednesday's afternoon high bottomed today. A counter-trend rally was expected. The announcement of Congress meeting on Sunday did not move the market. As long as the price stays below 1424, a major crash is possible. Otherwise, one more challenge (either from this point, after more consolidation) to December 2012 highs remains.
INDU support at 200 DMA
No wave counts have been eliminated since my last post. The last couple of days have shown stair-stepping lower (bearish). The price has more than retraced the mid December 2012 lows, so that rally is finished, leaving open for debate the rally out of the November 2012 lows. So far the besst count out of the November lows is a zigzag, so a sell-off is due regardless of the larger wave count.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
SPX E-Wave Recount
The ending diagonal off the November 2012 lows fizzled.
I have several medium term counts, but nothing jumps out as the highest probability. All are based on the rally out of the 2009 lows counting as an ending diagonal.
Still in Wave 4b. Wave 4c would be a drop of more than 7% through the rest of December. Then Wave 5 rallies in a choppy fashion into early next year.
Part way through Wave 5, ready to start a little pullback (Wave 5b). Rally into the new year, top in January.
Wave 5 is nearly complete, Look out below!!!
SPX Looks Toppy
The choppy crawl higher the last 6 days in the SPX futures marks the 3rd advance out of the November lows. The first two had narrow channels and sharp moves higher. This advance is completely opposite. Sharp advances were met with sharp pullbacks before grinding higher. This is an ending diagonal or part of the last of a larger corrective move. 1425 area is heavy resistance.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esz2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
E-wave of SPX Rally Out of November 2012 Low
In my last post my priamry count was a double zigzag, and the alternate count was a triangle. The triangle has won out. Wave e of the triangle has the zag to complete. Upside target of 1425. A breach of 1400 would indicate the rally is over and the price should then challenge 1345.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX Setup Fullfilled, but...
I saw an intraday triangle unfold on Thursday and Friday of last week. The high probability count was one more slight rally into a top. That happened.
The selloff can be counted motive, but there is still the possibility this double zigzag off the November lows is part of a triangle.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX Intraday E-waves Set-up
The rally off the November 16 low to the November 23rd intermediate high looks like a zigzag (wave a). A smaller zigzag pullback (wave b) ended on November 28. I'm looking for a zigzag to complete a double zigzag corrective rally. Off the November 28 low, is a motive wave followed by a triangle that developed Thursday and Friday this week. Since triangles signal one more move in the direction of larger trend, they give us a heads-up for a trend reversal. The close on Friday was a thrust the width of the triangle, so the double zigzag may have completed. I'd look for a move below 1410 as confirmation of a near term top being in.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
SPX near 62% retracement
This could be a turning point. The E-wave count could go either way. If Wednesday traced out a triangle, then the bounce is almost over. Otherwise, much higher.
A long term alternate count I have is the rally out of the 2008-2009 lows is an ending diagonal. Under this count wave 5 of 5 has started a choppy multi week rally.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Consolidation Over. It's wave 3 of 3 of 3...
And the amazing thing is the VIX is STILL near its lows. The market is waterfalling and investors are showing lots of complacency. Everything points to continued selling.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44570214304
SPX, Another Day of Consolidation
wave b may have ended today of a larger bounce correction, or it may chew up some more time as a triangle of complex correction before wave c tests the previously mentioned highs.
SPX Corrective Bounce in Progress
A motive wave in the SPX futures took place from the November 6-7 overnight into the November 9th premarket
Friday, November 9th started out with a sharp motive rally (wave a), followed by a choppy corrective pullback (wave b). This leaves a sharp rally (wave c) to complete this larger corrective move of the November 6-9th selloff. Upside target is between 1390 and 1405, the 38% and 62% fibonacci levels, but don't discount the 1410 level, which is the 66% fibonacci level.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=ESZ2&data=Z30&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=N&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Maybe US market bonuce is done.
The time spent correcting looks much better.
Futures are down more than 1% this evening.
HawkEye - Missing Days
The e-waves paused for the days the market was closed due to Hurricane Sandy. The fact that a text book wave (flat in this case) never had a distortion during an historic catastrophe even Hollywood couldn't create is evidence external events don't drive the market.
LOOK OUT BELOW!!!
The RUT and NYA show a clear, completed wave 2 or wave b flat. The SPX is to very close to a flat. The INDU is a double zigzag. NDX is best counted as a Zigzag. wave 3 or wave C selloff has started in all US markets.
RUT
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=rut&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F2%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
NYA
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=nya&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F2%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=48&y=22
SPX
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=spx&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F2%2F2012&freq=6&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=31&y=12
INDU
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=indu&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F2%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
European markets still in corrective bounce.
The wave 2 flat is no longer a valid count. A zigzag, double zigzag, and complex corrective bounce, in that order, are the new high-probability wave counts. STill, the corrective bounce looks complete.
DAX
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=dx%3A1876534&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F30%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=22&y=11
US vs European E-waves
Both the US and European markets had near term tops within the past 2 weeks. Counting the e-waves has been more challenging for the US than the European markets. One thing in common is the recent selloff has been motive.
The DAX is showing a complete wave 2 flat bounce over the last 3 days for the corrective pattern. The price is at the fibonacci 40% retracement level. The duration of the bounce is in a 1 to 1 time ratio with the wave 1. There is high probability wave 3 should start Monday.
The FTSE is showing a completed flat bounce over the last 3 days for the corrective pattern. It may be part of multiple degrees of wave 1-2 since the the top of the selloff started out choppy.
The SPX, NDX, NYA and INDU found their support earlier than the European markets. NYA has the strongest bounce, while the NDX bounce has been almost non-existent. The SPX and INDU are somewhere in between. Tuesay to Thursday morning I count a flat. Thursday morning was a pop and drop, where the drop was motive. Then the rest of Thursday and Friday the market traded sideways with the rally into Friday's close being motive. The best interpretation I can give is Thursday and Friday were yet another wave 2 flat of a smaller degree.
The RUT shows the best wave count of the US markets. It is clearly a single wave 2 flat that retraced 40% of the selloff.
Looking at the big picture, all the markets discussed are ready to head lower next week.
DAX
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=dx%3A1876534&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
FTSE
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=uk%3A1805550&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
INDU
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=indu&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
NDX
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=ndx&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
RUT
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=rut&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
NYA
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=nya&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
Volatility (VIX) Comments
The VIX is behaving as if the markets are experiencing a run-of-the-mill pullback. The VIX changed faster for the small pullback from the August 2012 high, than for the sharper/deeper selloff from the September highs. Fear really has not entered the market, which means the market has much more potential to go lower.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51664346919
NDX wave 3 of 3 of 3
Since the September 2012 high, the NDX has traced out 3 drops and 2 bounces. The expected 3rd bounce never really materialized, signalling a very strong selling pressure. Look out below as a Wave 3 of multiple degrees plunges. Go short, buy puts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p29735813625
SPX Flat is DONE
Wave 3 or Wave C down has started. Today's pop and drop broke yesterday's low, negating further potential motive advances from the opening pop.
Wave 3 is my preferred count. The bounce in the DAX made ideal price and time fibonacci ratios. The bounce in the SPX did not, indicating the downside forces are strong. Look for a 5-10% drop before markets reach the next level of support.
SPX E-waves update
The count that jumps out is a complete motive wave (Wave 1 or Wave a) that ended Tuesday morning, followed by a flat correction (Wave 2 or Wave b). wave b of the flat looks complete. For tomorrow, a sharp wave c rally, more than 15 points, to try to close Tuesday's gap down.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
E-waves from Europe
DAX, FTSE, and CAC have all completed motive waves early in today's trading. Corrective waves have started and should continue into tomorrow.
DAX
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=dx%3A1876534&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F24%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
FTSE
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=uk%3A1805550&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F24%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
CAC
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=fr%3A1804546&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F24%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
Markets are Consolidating.
The SPX Futures show overlapping sideways trading the last 48 hours. The consolidation should be nearly complete judging by the price being close to the upper down-trend channel line.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esz2&data=Z10&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Look Out Below!!!
My SPX futures count of waves 4 and 5 finding a bottom is morphing into another degree wave 2 (flat) that unfolded yesterday. Unless the market can rally 10-12 points off premarket lows, much more downside is directly ahead.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=ESZ2&data=Z30&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX Near Term Support Found
Elliott Wave International has a blurb about it too
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2012/10/22/SP-500-What-a-Third-Wave-Decline-Looks-Like.aspx
SPX Finds Support?
5 waves down in the open market have been completed for the SPX. I see the same in the INDU and TRAN. The SPX futures are still in wave 4. Maybe the SPX is making another smaller degree wave 2, with a strong wave 3 of 3 drop much closer than expected.
Open Market
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=spx&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F22%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
Futures
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esz2&data=Z15&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX for Monday and Tuesday
The SPX futures are showing waves 4&5 of multiple degrees starting to form a near term bottom in the 1410-1415 range.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=ESZ2&data=Z15&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX Short Term Top In
5 waves UP and the lower channel line (support) of the rally has been broken. The Fibonacci 1/3 price retracement is close, but the time ratio is way too small. At least 1 to 2 more days of consolidation if larger trend is bullish, and several days of selling if bearish. Either way upside is limited since the trend is sideways to down.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esz2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
GOOG Tanks 10%
Since the 2007 high, GOOG has been in what looks like a multi-year flat. WAVE B of the flat most likely completed on October 5th 2012 at $774.38. Since then GOOG sold off in a motive wave (wave 1) to the low on October 10th. very small wave 2 flat looked nearly complete going into today's trading. GOOG was ripe for a multi-day selloff. Then came a leaked earnings report that indicated revenue missed concensus, and wave 3 is in play. If you missed this opportunity to short, don't worry, because GOOG will make it back to the $300 level over the next 2 years. Goog broke its June 2012 trendline support and plunged below the 50 day moving average.
Supporting the e-wave analysis is the long term RSI which is near the overbought area. Volume the last 3 years has been lower than the volume during the 3 year rally into the 2007 top. The short term stochastics were overbought for the last 3 months. The bollinger bands were pinching this week, indicating a big change was about to take place. MACD, RSI and stochastics gave sell signals a few days after the October 10th high. Surprisingly the RSI did not show a negative divergence.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=goog&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F18%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=29&y=16
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p24130161676
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=GOOG&data=Z30&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX - Still in wave c of Flat.
Most likely extended wave 5 of c of flat, which is at the Fibonacci 62% retracement level. The duration of the flat is closing in on 78% of the selloff. It could even move sideways the rest of day to make the time ratio 1:1.
Also considering extended wave 3 of c of flat, with more choppy rally ahead.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Y Worry
Wave c was VERY close to being complete at yesterday's close. I think it is in the late stages of wave 4 or in wave 5. Not much upside potential left. Some short term top is near. Start looking for confirmation such as wave count or support channels breaking.
WMT - Definitely Sell
WMT made one last rally. The Wave 5 is an ending diagonal since subwaves 1 and 3 overlap. Subwave 4 (october 10-11) was a triangle, so today's subwave 5 is complete with high probability. Even though the RSI negative divergence condition has weakened, its prior existence must be respected due to its longevity. Expect a sharp selloff of $2-$4 the rest of the week.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=WMT&data=Z30&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
CORN is Wilting
Since the August high in corn, it has sold off in a motive wave to the September lows. Off these lows a zigzag correction has completed. Either corn is going to correct some more as a wave b triangle, or it's entering a larger degree wave 3. Either way it means some downside action in the near term.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CORN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63328450944