Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

US vs European E-waves

Both the US and European markets had near term tops within the past 2 weeks. Counting the e-waves has been more challenging for the US than the European markets. One thing in common is the recent selloff has been motive.

The DAX is showing a complete wave 2 flat bounce over the last 3 days for the corrective pattern. The price is at the fibonacci 40% retracement level. The duration of the bounce is in a 1 to 1 time ratio with the wave 1. There is high probability wave 3 should start Monday.

The FTSE is showing a completed flat bounce over the last 3 days for the corrective pattern. It may be part of multiple degrees of wave 1-2 since the the top of the selloff started out choppy.

The SPX, NDX, NYA and INDU found their support earlier than the European markets. NYA has the strongest bounce, while the NDX bounce has been almost non-existent. The SPX and INDU are somewhere in between. Tuesay to Thursday morning I count a flat. Thursday morning was a pop and drop, where the drop was motive. Then the rest of Thursday and Friday the market traded sideways with the rally into Friday's close being motive. The best interpretation I can give is Thursday and Friday were yet another wave 2 flat of a smaller degree.

The RUT shows the best wave count of the US markets. It is clearly a single wave 2 flat that retraced 40% of the selloff.

Looking at the big picture, all the markets discussed are ready to head lower next week.

DAX

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=dx%3A1876534&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0

FTSE

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=uk%3A1805550&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0

INDU

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=indu&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0

NDX

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=ndx&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0


RUT

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=rut&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0

NYA

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=nya&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F28%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0