Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Sounds like a closing the barn door after the horses are out strategy.
The answer is we don't know if they do or not but I say they're in the driver's seat and it's the other side that wants to settle badly.
Ditto for those who want a BO sooner than later - everything is rationalized through that prism.
What would be the terms of these milestone payments? Thanks in advance.
Winning the patent case (which appears to be very likely) would also be advantageous to the acquirer as it would be a strong incentive for others not to sue them. By the time the details are worked out for a BO I would think the judge would be very close to making a decision as I'm thinking a month as opposed to months for him to deliberate the case.
But historically these cases are settled, I just don't think it necessarily means Amarin wants to GIA if they don't.
I've come to the conclusion that these BO predictions are not based upon anything substantial.
My own guesses:
1) Any bid(s) will need to reach a certain threshold, i.e. Amarin will not simply accept the highest bid
2) If there isn't a BO announced by the first quarter then the likelihood of one greatly diminishes
If there is going to be a buyout it's going to be based upon potential sales and we won't know that until the extended label is announced by the FDA. There's also the patent case that's going to be resolved soon.
I don't see how some investors getting spooked out of their shares because of a willfully ignorant analyst will ultimately have any effect on the BO price.
I hope you're right but I wonder if the street is assuming they'll get something beyond secondary and the PPS will retract a bit if they don't. But it sounds like Amarin will be able to negotiate something beyond the secondary. Hopefully the FDA will be receptive to the additional data that's coming out.
Question for the board.
At what point will we have a good indication whether Amarin is GIA or selling out? By Easter?
"Don't you feel so?"
Well, no (not that you asked me but I hope you don't mind). Frankly I'm pleasantly surprise it went up to $24. The briefing documents and binary question pretty much foretold the 16-0 vote. The reason for the 12% gain may have been the comments where the majority favored an extension beyond Reduce-It.
Perhaps you're right that BP will be unwilling to pay more than $35-40 despite the huge sales potential but I don't see Amarin/share holders excepting such an offer and they would rather go the GIA route.
I remember when some thought it would be crazy to think a successful Reduce It outcome trial would result in the PPS reaching double digits.
I figure we're going to be in the 30's with more supporting data, approved label expansion (perhaps super duper expansion), resolved patent litigation and EU partnership so $35-40 seems woefully low for a Buyout.
Then again I figure JL will take us all out to the woodshed if BO discussions continue.
You only expect $35-40 for a buyout???
I stated earlier this week we should be relishing these moments. But even after today some still obsess with the negative. It's like your team winning the World Series or Super Bowl and you didn't take any joy on the trek, just the end result. Well it's Game 4 and we're up 3 games to none.
I've had a position in Amarin since 2011, DAMN right I'm upbeat.
My take, it's not going to be one or the other but somewhere in between. They certainly got cover from the majority (10-6 or was it 9-7) being fine with Primary (not the other way around).
I think JL stated it best:
"We are getting the primary indication with some restrictions...Must be a diabetic over 45-50 with one or more CVD risk factors.and trigs over 150....These patients will be monitored by WRE data....
All is well... "
Yes, I thought he was rough on you but speaking of HDG, where is he on this big day?
My Bad and I feel terrible about it.
They're losing credibility big time.
"and even with a positive ADCOM vote FDA still could not allow the label approval they want "
Please give it a rest, the FDA decision making comes down to the extent of the label.
Hopefully the AdCom will help solve their internal differences.
I think the MO issue will be part of the discussions but find it very unlikely it will be one of the questions. And no I don't think the FDA has a personal vendetta against Amarin.
C'mon folks, let's savor this moment! Especially us long time investors.
The AdCom is this week and the PDUFA date could be before Christmas. The Patent case should be resolved early 1st quarter. I'm thinking we'll know on way or the other if Amarin is GIA or selling out by the first half of next year.
We could know by tomorrow the discussion and question(s) of the AdCom. That alone should relieve a lot of tension on the tone of the AdCom.
I love it when folks propose their conspiracy theory and then think you're naive if you don't buy into it.
Another tactic (from others not you) is proposing a theory and then implying it's the consensus of the board. I only remember one member (Kiwi) opining that the FDA and Amarin were in negotiations for the expanded label prior to the AdCom announcement.
Here's a thought, it not conspiratorial or sexy but perhaps the FDA is understaffed and folks tend to take vacations in the summer months and they simply fell behind.
John Thero thought there would be an AdCom, his mistake (which is understandable) was thinking there wasn't going to be one after all because it got so close to the PDUFA date without notification.
I haven't seen the board this positive in a long time. Relatively speaking that is.
The AdCom can't come soon enough! How many more potential rabbit holes are out there?
"If you are to believe that Adcom is going to be a bit of a slug-fest (I believe almost everyone here believes it will be a hard fought battle that the company will win)..."
Especially this part
You make a persuasive argument about the challenges generics face against Vascepa but don't you think the patents have value in that they allow Amarin further time to establish the drug? When Vascepa becomes a familiar household name then why go with a brand that only undercuts the price slightly?
To use the Coke analogy, does it outsell off brands handily because it tastes better or is it because this slightly more expensive brand is so ingrained into our culture?
Why were all these patents granted in the first place if they don't stand up? I've been hearing about how they won't stand up since 2012. Don't see Amarin having much incentive to settle.
There will always be nuisance lawsuits which is how I would categorize the one from the generics. Hard to see it as a 50/50 proposition. But I'm not an expert either.
I went with buying more shares...
Since you gave such a damn good summation of the MO issue I see the AdCom coming down to the scope of the label indications.
It sure would be nice if there was a sub-board for the conspiracy theorists where they can have their pity fest among themselves.
I understand that JT has been consistent in that he thought an AdCom is more likely than not and I also understand why at this late stage he now would have thought it to be more unlikely.
But I thought Kiwi's point was at this late stage JT/Amarin requested a wider label and hence the explanation for the late AdCom. The reason I question this is because if this was the case then JT shouldn't have been surprised by the notification. Hence, why I question if there were these late stage negotiations.
Well if he did ask for a label that could cover up to 1/3 of the US adult population why did he appear to be taken by surprise by the AdCom notification? Like you said, he had to know an AdCom would be likely if he asked for such a label.
I like your best case scenario a lot better than Kiwi's worst case scenario. Yes, I think the market would react very positively to your scenario.
I too can understand the need for an AdCom but like most here I don't understand the timing of it. What could they have possibly come across at this late stage where they went, hmm, we better have an AdCom then.
Hopefully Amarin is well prepared so this can possibly end up being a positive in the long run.
Until we know why the FDA called for an AdCom I'm not going to assume it's for nefarious reasons.
Given the responses today I would say human beings react on a very emotional and fearful basis when confronted with undesirable news.
Thanks for posting!
I want us get Priority Review but it wouldn't be shocking if we didn't and there would be explanations other than the underhanded ones you mentioned.
What gives me the most pause is JT saying he expects standard review.
IMO JL's explanation makes more sense, that there may be too much involved with the expanded label (and why there may also be an AdCom). And it may be why JT doesn't expect to get PR.
But I'm pretty sure on this board your view be the more popular one.
If Amarin knows/finds out one way or the other I hope they won't wait till Tuesday in letting us know.
Great rebuttal. In the long run a PR and AdCom might be the best scenario.
With science and facts overwhelming on our side I'll take my chances with Amarin counter arguing their doubters directly to the FDA.
You appear to believe JT to the extent it fits your narrative as he also believes an AdCom would be an opportunity for them to separate Vascepa from supplements.