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I am currently in Singapore on business and every other commercial is Mundipharma and their Betadine product. You see soccer players getting sprayed on the field then a mom spraying her son before he goes back out to play. Mundipharma is big down here. I imagine the ad when that same mom puts the KT over an AP. Sree is speaking at max health expo conference in Idaho on Oct 6. Look it up. It’s a congregation of healthcare pros discussing new processes of treatment.
Had a thought
Isn’t RecoveryRx the key? I truly believe the biggest obstacle is perception coming from us the consumer market. Marketing is the holy grail and yes the Aleve TENS device is out there but different and doesn’t sell. All of them don’t. If RecoveryRx wins the challenge or starts getting used regularly due to FDA clearance then there it is. If it is good for my knee surgery it is good for my occasional back pain.
Always thought this investment had two phases:
1) prove you work - complete
2) sell the dog—— out of it
We are at the beginning of number two. Clearance will be fun but...telling you Keith knows what he is doing. AW is a marine and acts like it in his daily work. The whole SEC thing was him not paying them bc he thought they were trying to strong arm him and he refused...and won.
Hang tight
Our frustration against “the man” is warranted. Human experience is rarely understood as a ways of governing laws that actually help people. At the end of the day the frequency at which this pulse works actually heals pain is revolutionary. Put your children through an Ivy League school if you do complete DD.
I don't know what would happen if they went to the DAX and how it would affect us. This is years off anyway. I always liked the semiconductor sales model for our PEMF. You make the chip that heals pain and your licensed partner puts it in a housing (shoe insert for example) and markets it. This model takes a little momey out of your hands on the profit side but very little overhead and you just keep doing what you do best...make the PEMF device.
Andy did mention the DAX comment kind of in jest but I would not doubt him. My bet is the stock stays here in the US.
Makes me think when we get to this point where this conversation becomes really relevant we are so stinkin rich I can't imagine it.
When I met Andy earlier this summer I asked him about where he wants his company to trade long term, meaning also after he retires. His answer was either the NASDAQ or even the DAX. He is pretty fed up with all the political BS in the US over the years and when he said DAX that was interesting because you know who is a large cap stock on the DAX...Bayer
I hope you are right. I was taught long ago that the stock market moves on earnings, fed interest rates and emotion/fear. I know my number to get out and do what I always wanted to do on a personal level, but I won't sell all of it. I plan on handing a decent chunk to my daughter when she grows up. It really only takes one fund from Wall Street to see this tech and then it gaps up at unimaginable speeds.
I am really thinking worse-case scenario which to me is we spike again on great news and then come 3 months and another quarter of $300k sales and no Bayer news. But if these two are a one two punch that happen fairly close together then the big money comes in and stays. At that point, yes at the very least a penny. I do admit that I am on the low end and am gauging this by history, but on the other hand nothing like this has ever happened before and doesn't exist OTC in the market.
What do you think will be the next low baseline upon FDA news? I don't count the spikes because we all know the company is worth a lot more. I am guessing that the new "low" after FDA will be 0.005. We will need a week or two to shake the flippers out. Boring days around here but things will pick up very soon!
Poor advice. Rule #1 is massive amounts of educating yourself to know the true value of a company then determine your own personal plan to take profits near that number that you so scrupulously estimated.
I don’t know but considering even the low amount of power actipatch used (low mW) levels I don’t know where they would get the power from to operate. Maybe mechanical movement to generate electrical power? They use a watch battery now. I doubt Sree is looking at this right now but maybe on his radar. I guess if you can localize the PEMF wave to a small area (say 1 mm by 1 mm) you can use less power and thus get something onboard the product. Would be cool though
Thanks Viking. Interesting. NITE and CDEL loading up buys and very little on the sell side to show profit. They know...they have been here a little bit.
Cheers
Hey Viking
I can’t see that info but am curious, how many MM’s are we up to? Any idea who is holding the most? First, second, third?
I was looking at one of my funds in my 401k randomly the other day and see L’Oreal as the only holding under consumer products. It was holding $300M! I mean geez! Stared at it for s min and wondered when it says BioElectronics.
Even the largest companies in the world that trade on a US exchange are only obligated to inform us once every three months when they release earnings. Why should a company much smaller tell us on a twitter feed what they are doing? I certainly would not. I especially would not if I had just enough cash to pay the people that I have. Does the world need to know what this is? Absolutely! Should we go millions more in debt with zero guarantee on any return on investment and continue to print shares to buy ads on TV? No. You hire people like Mundi, EvoMed, NHS, BBraun, Bayer. Yes it is a slow process but we are talking about replacing tylenol that has been a cultural staple for over 50 years. If you have a daily flipper mentality you won't be here when this tech is realized globally.
DB
Such a great point. BIEL not only has next to zero cash they entered a competition that if they win (and odds are high) they won’t need any marketing money. The FDA does it for them. I only wonder what the FDA plans to do for the winners. I would love to see specials on prime time TV.
JGD
As I was listening to the recording I am thinking the entire time that they are describing BIEL exactly. Clear as day that actipatch will get recognized. I hope the FDA makes a big deal out of the winners. I don’t expect a winner to be announced until 2019 bc applicant reviews have a deadline in Nov. The FDA showed their five point attack on the crisis and interestingly better data was one of them. Makes me think of those agonizing years of testing and double blinds etc that mostly went on in the UK. BIEL always had strong diligence in their work. That’s Andy. I know it’s frustrating to have to wait and sales takes a long time but you know it and it know it...patience = we are rich!
When that happens we should get together with them in DC and appreciate them and us for staying in this so long.
Honestly I think approval comes before the applicants are formally selected in Nov. winning will help our cash problem because marketing becomes very easy and you can point to a very strong win as proof that the tech works. Much easier to try and sell to new customers with this under the belt. On the development side winning the challenge will help us fast track new devices that they make. And I think it happens bc the govt wants the public to know they support fighting the crisis. It will be a selfish reason for our govt but who cares we will take it.
I watched the FDA’s webinar of what this challenge is today. There are not too many companies signed up yet but BIEL is one of them. In Nov the FDA will formally announce who made the cut. Then winners come at an unknown time. Sounds like if you win you get accelerated approved devices. I think winning this is great PR. Timing is great bc overall approval is on a weekly timer. Advertising is free and we all know knowledge to the doctors equals sales. Excited for this one. It came out of left field.
I think you are right Steve. Anyone that had a short term view (1-2 year) outlook for this company mind as well just dump at news of clearance. Those that have patience will be rich. I have said it before but patience = money in my bank account. It’s the last thing you want to do but if you want to be rich with biel then it’s the only thing you have to do.
Accumulate now!
I am done buying bc I loaded in trips but they are gone now. Today proved it.
This is great! Lots of volume right out of the gate. There doesn't seem to be the "panic" effect. When less than stellar news happens and there is tons of volume tells us people understand the long term potential. History does tell us to come back and check where we are next week. Usually takes a few trading days for everyone to see and digest the news. But, this much attention when it was released last night is a good thing. People are paying attention!
Good luck and ride the wave
Ah - you need more due diligence my friend! It's a choice, either on the shelf or behind the counter. You cannot have both, government denies it. Better to go behind the counter then it can be rolled out with bigger products and pain relief processes. That is what the Total Pathways product is through B Braun and approved by NHS. Obvious that it takes a while because these numbers tell me there is little sales coming from BB right now, but it will increase. News saying it is approved is news with very little meat on the bone. News saying BBraun's Total Pathways is changing lives and turning people out of hospitals faster (with data to back it up) is real news.
Sales solves everything!
It's the same old story. Last time I loaded up big time was after the Feb ruling in 2017 and I waited for Q numbers to be bad then when in the darker times of the pps in 2017 loaded BIG TIME. Never sold a share and still not selling anything, that would be nuts IMO.
Poor result though in the numbers. I know things take forever to develop a sales funnel of opportunities in this market but you would hope for something higher than last year. Mundi is a good partner and they will move us forward but we cannot underestimate the monumental task at hand to convince people of what this thing is and the fact that it truly works.
I think winning the FDA challenge puts all of that to bed because then we have the most powerful agency in the world saying what we have known and we can freely market that win.
Considering all of this - it's still a very small company and even broad clearance that will come within a month or two can double or triple the pps and days like today are all forgotten.
I do admit that it does suck to be around so long through all of the developmental phase and now we can sell and the numbers are underwhelming. Seems to be a home run only game and base hits and walks are not getting us anywhere...
You are exactly correct. 200k is not good. I think that’s the down side of posting too much, you say too many different things. The only difference is companies also trade on their future potential - hence the existence of the concept of a P/E ratio. But you are 100% correct about the sales side.
Hey DB
I signed up for the automated email alerts! Speculating right now what happens upon approval...then second punch of Bayer and the champ goes down!!
Beacham
You sent a private message but I don't have private replies available on my account. I will answer to the best of my ability and hopefully speak in a way that is okay to you in a public setting.
Tinnitus
When I went there they voluntarily told me about the applications beyond pain management and that included over-active bladder and tinnitus. The only thing they said was it is possible for PEMF to combat this but I don't know to what degree. My assumption was it could work just as good for pain as for these other applications.
What are they doing about it?
Pretty sure there is a migraine study and I could be wrong but it is my understanding that this would be considered a different application from a technological standpoint and the FDA's labels. So if it passes then it is an ActiPatch for migraines. Allay would be the same as the current 510k filed that we are waiting for clearance. I don't think there are any trials going on with Tinnitus or over-active bladder. I think they need to make cash first and my feel is the team is focused on that. After that happens then yes full steam ahead with more trials, 510k's, applications.
I am a heavy technological investor and PEMF is much much more than just pain management. The pain market just happens to be near worth untold trillions of dollars and how much more is the rest??? We need clearance and cash badly. It's the last hurdle before...well you know
PinHigh
I think that comes down to the amount of power used and dissipated from the device. I remember years ago development trying to get the power consumption down because it would never pass the FDA because of possible damage to the skin. I forget the ActiPatch power consumption but it is now in the milliWatt level. I am an electrical engineer and Sree sent me some of his studies on this technology dated over three years ago. Just reading Sree's stuff is pretty amazing and if you want to really understand you have to go slow...really brilliant person.
Before anyone asks - I won't share the document in this arena because this is his personal work and it should be up to his discretion. I met him and simply asked for it from engr to engr.
You also have tinnitus and over-active bladder. It is only a matter of "tuning" the pulsed frequency for the given application. To get all of this only takes time and resources.
MJ
Short answer, no.
Long answer short - be patient. I have come to the conclusion that patience equals money in my bank account. It’s that easy and that hard.
Keith will get it done.
To all: Just remember when your profits come in look at whom of lesser fortune you can help. Actipatch disrupts the pain market and those who profit can disrupt their own community.
UK,
I asked this same question when I visited them two months ago. I don't believe the patient up approach will work fast enough (doesn't mean it shouldn't happen, it should happen as much as possible) but the doctor down approach is best.
This may help also with av8tor's question - from my understanding the hospital group Paul mentioned to one of the posters here is owned by a collection of doctors. Keith found this group (inside the USA) and worked them to convince them about the healing properties of ActiPatch. Since these hospitals are owned by doctors they are more willing to try new technologies because it makes them look better and gain a competitive advantage over old therapies. If this hospital group was owned by a corporation then you run in to the red tape bs of insurance companies and not many knowing what this is etc...
I did not want to say anything before until someone like Paul said something. So I added a little more.
My opinion - this is the right way to go. There are so many irons in the fire and you can never have enough.
He says that because he is cautious with his answers these days because of possible explosion of his company. 90 days is the absolute latest. Fast track means fast track
It has probably been a month and a half by now. When I was there it was a production audit but I don’t know how much more needed to be done. I will say I have to do private label work for my job and I am dealing with much much smaller companies than Bayer and it’s a pain in the neck. Would be nice to know where they are in this partnership.
Not IF...WHEN
No, or shall I say I would bet what I bet on BIEL that they have no idea of what’s on the otc. Even broad approval I don’t see this happening. Now I mean mutual fund level people not some small investment firm with medical device holdings. Profitability then AW will reassess the situation then nasdaq or Dax or anything he wants. After that happens then yes I think we see BIEL on our 401k fund charts. Seriously, true story I was reading one of my fund 401k summary under personal care and there is laureal. And it was $350M.
BIEL
This is all great DD. It should bring down the hype and in to the real situation the longs feel. It takes time to even update websites to even tell a potential knee replacement client what is going to be used on them. You have to hammer everything home for this to just be a sit back and collect money scenario. They need more people. My hope is a spike happens on approval and Andy and his ibex company dump some shares to add to the labor assets. I doubt it though. All speculation but great DD means you send an email to AW and give him the questions you would like to discuss and he won’t dodge you.
Best to all. IMHO - FDA by sept 1 and spike over a penny. I wonder the settling spot...
DL
I have been thinking a lot about this too. It’s different from anything else. It is immortalized in US history at that point to whatever degree. I still think we see the typical spike then give it a couple weeks and back down then Q numbers and back down again. I always judge by the baseline after something big happens. Like NHS the new baseline is a quarter of a penny. What is it with clearance?
I think big funds see the news and maybe some investigate with heavy medical device portfolios but they will be in and out like we see day traders now. However for longs I am still talking we are freakin rich at that point but I will stick with BIEL probably for a generation or two. I doubt I ever get rid of all of it and it’s quite a bit.
Profits will always be king and they will get there. It will take patience. I have seen their office and personnel and they still need a lot more people. But on the other hand, who’s to say Bayer doesn’t come in tomorrow and change everything...well only possible until after broad clearance.
All just my personal opinion.
What they really didn’t have that spawned all of this was the scientific research muscle to truly understand the technology. Without that there is no new category created by the FDA and without that there is no clearance at all. I sincerely applaud the technical team. Now it’s up to Keith to Andy.
Really exciting times.
Jay
I asked this question in person but actually started with a compliment. I told AW that I respected him for not going to a bank or investment firm to give him money to keep operating while we wait for these gigantic returns to hit. I agree that if I were him I know I am holding something revolutionary and why give a bank a free pass to hold half my company or whatever. I know it sucks as an investor but you mind as well turn off the daily news because this will take time to get to the true potential. By true potential I mean more than just Bayer more than just total pathways and Mundi. I applaud the dilution in a way. Don’t get me wrong I hold enough shares that it dilutes me but I really don’t care. My personal opinion is this is an additional 25% dilution and I think AW thinks it is his last. Q2 numbers will suck so here is a free lesson: hold your cash for Q2 numbers and when people jump ship buy a ton. I broke my 401k after Q numbers after we got foot and knee approval and it ranked to .0007. Then I bought a sh!t ton and quite frankly even my wife thinks it’s the best move our family has done financially. Patience
AW even considering a buyout would not happen for a long long time. This is my opinion after speaking to him directly about the future of the company. Maybe if he was offered a crazy number like $5B right now he would but there is virtually no chance of that without delivering any profit.
Profits first
It was from a business model perspective. They are more proactive rather than the previous and still running more reactive distributor model. Mundi are boots on the street hustling talking to doctors, networking etc. I know they expressed optimism that Mundi will do well. How well and when? Who knows.
I personally believe they will try and find others that work in this way. So many irons in the fire. The way I see it is the B Braun deal works government agencies and gets integrated to the Total Pathways product, Mundi is more face to face sales calls and education at the doctor level and with US clearance they can broaden and try both methods.
The question I asked was “let’s assume broad market clearance in the US, then what?” They loved the question and the answer is about business models and deals like Dr Scholls. Lots of avenues to go down. IMO it will be all about execution bc the possibilities are limitless even for a multi billion company. I get the sense Keith is great at executing.
My thoughts. Good luck
This deal with Mundi is really good for us. When I met them a month ago they explained how Mundi is different. They are an aggressive sales organization that directly meets doctors, hospitals whoever. Well coached professionals. Keith will be the same thing in the US once we get clearance. It will be interesting to see how fast the investment returns to the company. Happy fourth all
Very much agreed Heisenberg.
In the process now of sourcing multiple oil drum barrels to hold all of my cash! This time I take that to the bank and not bury them in the desert :)
Great day of trading. We learned once again that sell-offs can be triggered at any moment and those who don’t understand the tech/potential/pipeline duck out. The best part is we bottom out and the true visionaries see value and scoop up shares to bring us right back to where we started and all in one day.
More and more this castle is being built on solid rock! Fun ride