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3300 and I short more, 3150 and I cover what I still am short.
BTW, my favorite gold stock is no longer gdx or gold, it is agi.
bought to close the spy I shorted on friday at 321,small gain.
Still 100% short spy, think we run up to 3300, or we drop to between 3000 and 3100 this wee. Will cover short if we drop, add to short if we rally.
added 50% short spy at 321.6
will wait for close to short more,often market goes up into close on options expiration days.
My plan is to go 200% short spy if it gets over 322.5, and cover the spy short I have at 317,if it gets that low.
I have wrong so many times, would take anything I do as almost a counter intuitive position.
Looks like higher later this year, unless we keep rallying into august, which could set up nasty correction into fall.
Forgot about the FED next week, me thinks likely up into meeting.
July 19/20 has been an important top many times in past 30 years: 1990, 1998, 2007. Could be again.
Weekly lei tomorrow, will post when I get it. My uncle thinks economy slowing down again, and that the W, not the V, is a more likely outcome for the economy
Actually, in march 2000, got some insane low readings, the total CBOE number was below .3! Same happened in August 1987.
The number to watch is the 21dma, and that is as low as it has been a number of times since 2000
Strong opinion, hope you are wrong! My gut says ineffective vacine at first, maybe a real one in a few years.
Covid is here to stay, like the spanish flu never really went away.
Nature is not happy with so many humans destroying other creatures ability to survive, and will keep creating (with humans help possibly) more and more ways to keep out numbers from growing.
Has the protests affected the market? Probably not.
I prefer to not discuss the value of race relations, however, one can quantify the rioting of the late 190's on Black peoples ability to earn a living. It hurt them badly, as Detroit and other auto makers moved out of that area and into the South instead. Was also about lower wages there, etc.
Am no expert, but cant see how violent protests help any cause.
Bottom line: Peaceful protest that is non-emotional, helps convince people. Violent protests, like tearing down statues, only incites more violent responses. Ahimsa, the use of noviolent means to achieve political or social change is the most effect way to achieve ones goals, IMHO
took out half my short at 319.3 late in day, think will be volatile tomorrow with options expiration.
Major top could be forming, not willing to buy anything until we get a massive selling climax, but taking profits on the short I put on yesterday makes sense to me.
NO worries at all by options players, they remain at historical record bullishness, which is bearish.
Holding short, not sure if we drop big this week or next, but a drop to at least 3100 is very likely by the end of this month.
Tempted to buy the work at home stocks next selling climax
I doubled down, now 200% short, at spy 322.5 near open.
Vix says buy, after saying sell a couple days ago.
Options numbers indicate when a correction happens, will be swift and perhaps really big.
May all depend on congress and the stimulus bill they pass. GOP making noise about not passing a generous payment to people, but will go along with what will help them get reelected.
Economy will not fully shut down again, and be this time next year, things will be going back to normal. But the poor will be a lot poorer, and will that hurt the economy badly enough to take the market down?
3235, then 3310 are upside resistance.
never thought would be writing those numbers, back in the spring
Vix of 24.5 would signal a sell. I will add to my short if that happens tomorrow.
Greed always loses money. I was going to put my order to cover the short at 312.5, but got greedy and so have a big loss instead.
At least i covered the 200% short at a small gain, so on the entire position only have a small loss at spy 321
News driven rally tomorrow, a correction of more than 5% is coming, but when?
I actually had an order to cover my spy at 312, but it was not filled, as probably not enough went through at that price to get my fill.
So I waited and did not cover, dumb, dumb, dumb.
Not sure what to do tomorrow, we could rally beyond 3235, setting up a buy to new highs on spx.
Crazy
Options indicating major top, but 3110 should hold tomorrow, if we start down, even if for only an hour.
3010 is my downside target later this week
I got back in 100% short spy at 315.6 afterhours.
Was 300% short at one point today, had the spy closed over 323,i would have gotten a margin call and had to cover some of it afterhours, or had my broker close it at open tomorrow.
But stocks fell, what a surprise!
the 21dma at 3110 is also major support.
Normally a day like today signals a correction of at least 5%, with the double top and close after such a strong up move in the morning.
But this is a market that is manipulated.
Bank earnings will move market big up or down tomorrow morning.
Vix is saying sell,sell, sell.
3140 is major support for spx tomorrow, if it breaks,then 3000 likely soon.
ONce again, shorting a gap up monday, or going long a down in first half hour,proved very profitable.
Amazing, had an order to cover all of my short at 315, done, small profit, made about 1% on my money as had shorted at average price 317
Almost bought a ton of sds when spx hit 3230, but was so heavily short spy, thought was taking on too much risk.
Bottom line: I expect a small rally tomorrow, but the top is probably in until spx 3000, then another rally is probable
TEsla up 5 times since march low, insane. NOw the 10th largest stock by valuation. And it isnt even making money. Who is going to buy all the cars and trucks it is making?
This will end badly, not sure how high we go, but when it ends, the low will be a lot worse than most people think.
Market was up on news of "cure" for virus, but in past, shorting on big up days on news of cure has worked well.
The cure, is expensive and so most working class people cant afford it, and it only helps if you are so sick you may die, then it helps you from dying, but not from suffering other negative affects from the disease.
So my gut says next week, the market focuses on earnings, so it all depends on the banks when they report on tuesday before the market opens.
Last, the travel industry was up big today, and all related stocks. yet, it looks like the virus is ramping up its deadly toll. So wall st is counting on the virus not being a problem soon.
Priced to perfection, valuation stretched, over optimistic, all can lead to large drops out of nowhere.
shorted more spy at 317.5, now 200% short
Rally in the re-open scenario stocks today, and the stay at home are dropping.
I don't see that being the case, with the stay at home orders going to be more restrictive, not less, for the time being.
Have order to short more spy at 317, to be 200% short if that is filled.
Weekly LEI have slowed down their upward growth rate, which is still negative.
My uncle, former professor of economics for many years at UCLA, thinks the economic indicators point to another slow down into the fall, which could be a lot worse than anyone is believing right now
I see three possible scenarios:
1. We start down next week, but make a bottom soon at spx 3000.
2. We go up to 3230 by the end of next week, setting up a much bigger decline after that.
3. Yesterdays low was a buy, and we go up to new highs in August, before a 10 to 20% correction after that.
I believe in the first two, can't see how we get the third unless congress passes the dem bill for a 3 trillion stimulus, of the fed starts pumping a lot more money into the system again.
shorted more spy afterhours, at 315.3, now 150% short
Doubled my short in spy at 314.5, now 100% short.
We are seeing exponential moves in many of the market leaders, without large increases in earnings.
I shorted 50% of my money spy in afterhours at 317, as said I would. Will short more thursday, think we could see spx 3230 by friday, but my gut says we do not get that high before the next correction
spy over 316.5 afterhours,but will wait to short tomorrow,unless it gets over 317 afterhours, then will short a little.
looks like 3230 tomorrow or friday
Weight of evidence points to spx 3200 by friday, but I will start shorting at spy 317.5, and keep shorting up to 322,if it gets that high.
Tops are so much harder to pinpoint than bottoms.
Very good point about vice president choice, a very progressive pick would hurt the markets. As to the election if it looks like in sept that biden is going to win big, then the market gets hit with a 10% correction then, but runs up into the election and after, IMHO
Historically, markets do much better under democratic presidents than under republican ones.
The economy under Obama grew much better than under trump, even if you only look at 2017 to 2019. I recently wrote a book with my uncle, and GDP was not nearly as strong in those 3 years at it had been in the 8 years under obama.
Either we tank big time into friday, or we rally up to between spx 3180 and 3230 by friday.
Either will not surprise me. Some option strategies are perfect for this kind of set up, but no more options for me.
Bottom line: Waiting for clear signals to be either long or short are a lot easier ways to make money and lessen stress.
The only election outcome that will hurt the market (and no, biden winning will not hurt the market after the election) is if Trump loses, then declares the election to have been "a fraud" against him, declares it invalid,the supreme court knocks that down,but allows states to not send electoral college delagates if they believe fraud in the election (GOP controled legislatures in states that biden win could do that),then Biden will not get enough votes in the electoral college to win.
It then goes to the congress, where every state delegation gets one vote. 26 states are GOP controlled.
Then, the market tanks big time, as a trump win like that, with a dem congress and senate, will hurt the economy terribly.
Just IMHO
The high flying tech stocks I mentioned, will do well, IF the economy does not fall into a depression.
I thought we were headed into a depression in 1990, then the gulf war saved the day, supporting oil prices, and helping the fed to print lots of money.
I also thought depression in 2001, but the tech economy kept booming, and although the stock prices took 15 years to get back to march 2000 levels,the boom in new tech did help the economy.
Now, will these "new economy" stocks continue to outshine at least into the end of next year. Due to the corona virus changing everything, again at least until the end of next year, I think those tech companies in the cloud, and helping aps, and making video game chips (plus AI), and blockchain stocks are where the money will keep flowing.
If you are more conservative, wait for the upcoming correction before the election to buy.
Pattern is a set up for a really big down day tomorrow, with too much complacency in the options market.
I will short if we rally somehow early tomorrow, or am waiting for a really big down day to go long again.
If the vix falls to 25 this month,sell short heavily.
I noticed most market leaders are way above their 50dma,but every time they fall back to that level,they rocket higher.
Looks like late 1999, early 2000 to me, when the nasdaq doubled.
IN 2000, EMC and SUNW both continued higher into mid Oct, even when the tech stock bubble peaked in March.
Other leaders, like JDSU, QCOM, csco, etc did not really drop hard until after January of 2001.
Just saying buying leaders like nvda, sq, docu, twlo, msft, should continue going up even if the market is in a bear market.
I like all the stocks in the later list as long term investments
Had order to sell short 200% of my account spy at 316.5.
Obviously did not get filled.This is to remind me about all the times in the past I had put an order in the night before that barely got filled!
support at 3110 on spx, i expect that level to hold today. 3000 still major support this month. I will buy if we get a selling climax today.
I let the opinion of many "experts" that I read sway me to not stay short today.
I went against many opinions to put on the short yesterday.
My experience is when I let others influence my decisions, I make bad ones.
I was talked out of putting all my money into MSFT in the fall of 1986 (would be a multi millionaire had I dont that), puttting a lot of money into NFLX several years ago (again, would be a multi millionaire had I done it), and inbetween was convinced to invest in companies that soon went bankrupt.