Short term momentum trader.
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Gold is up $14 to 1166 as dollar slides.
This correlation I can honor and understand.
GDX and BABA trading in same pattern today???
Perhaps it's just coincidence, but these 2 are trading in similar pattern today.
As you might know, BABA just recorded 9 billion (yes that's "B")
one day sale in China yesterda. That's bigger than our Black Friday.
Gold trying to stay above 1150, once it sinks below to low 1140s,
I think it will pick up speed and retest 1130 and 1100 levels.
I'm still bearish on gold until it can hold above 1180 level for a while
or get above the 1200 level.
But that all depends on...what our dollar does the most, followed
by market conditions.
gold ETFs are now retracting...I knew this had to happen based on my earlier postings on its correlation to the dollar and market.
I was just thrown off because gold ETFs were popping without the
usual correlations supporting it.
I missed the great trading opportunity.
I should've trusted my instinct and traded earlier...Argggg.... LOL.
In any case, this is a clear sign that...aggressive early speculators are
taking a chance here that "dollar is too high and should pull back" and
"therefore gold should pop".
I know we will get to that reversal level and we are getting close to that each time dollar and market rises...but I still think we are months away from that.
Stock market is usually the strongest in November, so I don't see any major pullback until January or Feburary/2015
Yup, dollar will dictate the direction for gold.
What's really confusing is that market is up, dollar is up,
and gold is also up (though barely), but gold ETFs are
up way too much...proportionately speaking.
So unless dollar and market crumbles or spot gold rise significantly more,
the gold ETFs rise this morning is not supported.
If dollar and market remains up going into the afternoon,
then I think there is a good chance that gold ETFs will retract.
So far this morning, this is illogical move, that's breaking
recent patterns.
But I like it. I wish gold ETF would rise more, and that'll give me
more confidence to short them (as long as dollar and market is up).
Gold at 1150 level is not clear trading point for me.
Also very conflicting moves today.
Gold is slightly up along with dollar.
Normally, dollar is the leader and gold is the laggard
and they tend to move in opposite direction as of lately,
so gold ETFs making a small pop this morning is confusing,
therefore, I'm just monitoring at the moment.
If the market and dollar moves up today and gold does too,
I think gold is good for shorting again.
That said, gold seems to be attempting to establish
"I'm near bottom" message right now.
Excellent! Question: Is 1150 support or resistance?
Gold breached 1150 and touched 1145, only to close just above 1150.
It was so obvious that last minute pop was shorts covering,
and didn't want to hold overnight, which hinted to me that
they are confident to ride the gold down right down to the final minutes,
but they want to manage the risk by closing out the position.
Right now, I'm thinking...
If gold pops back to 1170s in Asia,
I will play the short side.
If gold tanks to 1130s or lower in Asia, I will play the long side.
If it's flat...I'll just observe until I can get some direction to trade.
Short covering just before the close.
Shorts are bit tentative at close due to what happened last Friday.
For sure, gold is looking downward, but it is starting test if it can
form a bottom near here.
I'll remain bias towards short side until Gold is over 1200 level.
I exited 1/2 of JDST at 30.58...holding the other 1/2 overnight.
Brief profit taking by gold shorts.
However, market and dollar are still trading on the high side,
and if that trend continues to close, gold should finish on the low side.
Let's see if gold finishes flat around 1150 or sharply lower to near 1140s.
I don't see a rally with dollar and market in upswing trend at the moment.
Dollar hit HOD, Gold hits LOD at 1148.
Complete reversal from last Friday.
Gold may hit 1130 overnight in Asia, if we don't get there today.
At this point NUGT could see $9s by close or sometime this week,
and if gold pounds through 1130, NUGT could see $8s.
I'd be very cautious to play the long side at least until gold reaches
1130 level at which point, it may attempt another bounce.
Gold 1150, NUGT 10.89, JDST 30.33...
Up $5,000. Rare but my predictions are panning out near perfectly today.
Continuing to hold the JDST. Still looking for gold to retest 1030 level,
at which point, I might switch to JNUG.
Strong dollar sending gold lower to $1154
Japan and number of countries are in a war to devalue their currency,
and compound that with stronger than rest of the world US economy,
US dollar is only going to get stronger, and this will further pressure gold.
Just don't see any strong catalyst for gold to sustain gains nowadays.
If dollar remains strong to close, NUGT could close near $10.80 level.
Gold hits 1156. JDST hits $28.77, but Congrats on profit!
I'm holding JDST for break above $30 this week
and would like to scale out starting above $35+ if I can.
I scalp with my cash account, but I swing trade with IRA account,
and JDST trade is with my IRA.
I think we are headed to retest the recent low (1130 level),
if not lower.
I think gold may break under 1150 sometime today
and NUGT could hit $10s.
Clever shorties. Hard to beat 'em. LOL.
Shorts beat down the gold, and when they saw limited down side,
they covered (on Friday), and that trapped new buyers and
they are shorting again.
Shorts are milking this over and over again with bear traps.
What if gold doesn't turn (up) today?
I think JDST has a shot at $29+ today at this rate.
$12 is getting hammered, could crater into $11s any second now.
What's your exit strategy?
Are you in for quick scalping?
Or are you playing the trend?
Just few days ago, JDST hit $42.
If gold retracts to retest 1130 level, JDST should hit $40+.
That should be about 60% gain from $26 to $42 move.
Gold hits 1160 & NUGT hits $12.05
Dollar was negative in pre-market, but its positive now.
No major US economic news/event is scheduled this week,
so I don't expect huge moves in market or gold rest of the week.
However, my bias is for gold to trickle down to retest 1150
or go sideways near 1160 level, and NUGT falling to $11s today or this week.
Gold hits 1164. 1150 May be tested today.
Short cover rally bringing in new gold shorts.
NUGT may hit $11s today.
Gold hit 1168 in Asia couple of hours ago.
1170 is acting as a support for now.
I like to see gold get up over $1200, but I think these factors are
going to drive it down further before we see stability...
1) Rising dollar (US economy is the healthiest in the world now)
2) Rising interest rate (Not now, but probably in 2015 sometime)
3) Slowing global economy, particularly slowdown in Europe will
impact Chinese manufacturing, which will drag global economy
4) Stock market has been strong so its been the better investment
than gold, and there has been billions of outflow out of gold ETFs.
5) ISIS and Ukraine threats have played out many times and
they didn't have sustaining momentum to push gold higher.
Personally, I like to see gold have a huge capitulation close to $1000,
so that the market can feel like we have a solid bottom, and gold can build up from there. Right now, I think the big money is staying away or shorting the gold.
I'm playing volatility, so personally, I just want to see lots of up/down in either direction, but for miner stock's sake,
I like to see gold stabilize over $1200 not too far in the future.
Spot price down $10 in Asia.
US dollar is also gaining against pretty much all currencies as well.
I think gold will fall under $1150 this week.
Spot price is down about $7 in Asia now and dollar is higher so if this trend stays then NUGT should fall.
2/3 analysts responded to a poll that gold will fall this week according to a news on kitco over the weekend.
NUGT may see $11 to $13s on Monday. Going to be volatile again.
QUESTION...NUGT/DUST % up/down are proportional and it makes sense.
But why is JDST down 34.5% and JNUG is only up 28.2%????
Aren't these exact inverse of each other?
This doesn't make any sense to me.
I had to choose between contending with sharp toothache over the weekend or trade the gold excitement today... my pounding toothache won.
Love to see either 1200 or 1150 come Monday...need to milk this volatility more.
Yup...but to be honest, watching NUGT take off while waiting in Dentist office gave me some heartburn for getting out way too early...but glad to recoup some more with JDST at closing.
Gold is still rising in AH...up nearly $36 now...Wow!!!
Ahh...is that what happened?
Man, I totally missed news today as I had to run to the Dentist and to the pharmacy...I knew there had to be some catalyst, as overall economy picture hasn't changed much.
Man...if I was Putin...I could've made a ton of money on these markets as
I would have known when the tanks were moving in to Ukraine... LOL
Good luck all next week.
Asia and US seem to go back and forth on who sells off and who rallies.
In the past I've seen gold tank in US and rally in Asia, but today was the reversal.
It'll be interesting to see if Asia would take the gold up over 1200 or take it below 1150 come Monday.
Also, I think JNUG and NUGT are getting pretty close to another reverse split...perhaps before end of the year if it stays in single digits.
Golds up $33...Don't know if this is temporary short squeeze on slightly weaker jobs number ... OR ... we have hit the temporary bottom.
I still think Gold will be under pressure in the near term but it's nice to see up/down volatility which gives more trading possibility.
I sold NUGT way too early today because I had to run to the Dentist office...but caught some JDST actions in final 30 minutes...and salvaged few more bucks...what a crazy volatility we are seeing...I'm loving in.
Keep it going.
What a crazy 30 minutes...I need some drink to calm down. LOL
Out at 24.50 average
back in at $24 for 500 shares...
Whew...all out at 25.10 average.
Doubled JDST 24.30
Total 800 shares...with average 24.65 (not looking good at the moment)
In JDST @25...
Go NUGT...let's hit $13 today.
NUGT taking a breather @12.50 area, $13 may be possible today.
Spot gold spikes to $1154 on jobs numbers 214K (act.) vs 231K (est.)