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A really, really good response. It did answer,(in part) some nagging questions but also expressed the company's own frustration at we shareholders who are impatient for the (potentially) vast upside to materialize.
As I've said before I have too much invested to walk away at these prices so I'll try and be patient and think long term. However it would be nice to get some good news followed by an actual, modest,increase in the share price.
Your point is taken. I also agree that sales of current products/technology should be the goal this quarter.
If adding equipment to the lab or changing the parameters of the equipment is the reason for the delay why not just say so with a few specifics i.e. new equipment will do such and such or we have realized that adding such and such will result in greater savings etc. I'm not spooked by delays but misinformation, or no information about delays is "vexing".
Having said that, I still believe in the product. Getting the license brings a commitment to commercialize the process and sharing revenues with the NREL. One presumes that they would also do their due diligence and wouldn't grant the license if they had concerns about Natcore's abilities or business plan.
I don't think the license or the technology are the problem. Investors have been waiting for YEARS for the process to reach the market. Constant delays are the problem; and it seems like management is to blame. I understand the desire to hold onto something that might be "disruptive" technology but if you can't get it to market it is worthless. I think the problem is money. More money means doing whatever it takes to overcome the problems. The company should face facts and sell a piece to whomever will finance whatever is necessary to get the AR boxes sold and move onto the tandem cell. A slightly smaller piece of the pie is better than no pie at all.
I'm usually one of the first to put the company's feet to the fire but I agree that impulsive decisions about this stock are a bad idea.
Hopefully management has learned their lesson about disseminating projected timelines. While we are all anxious for progress, we do not need hype.
I suspect there will be fewer "nuggets" to be found on this message board and that might not be such a bad thing so long as the company is committed to pushing the product to market as soon as feasible.
I look forward to the next PR detailing an actual contract with (iron clad)specifics about revenue.
Thanks to all for helping to clarify the situation. I forgot that Provimi confirmed that anyone could build the machines. Microtec does seem to be positioning themselves as the developer of the "prototype" and therefore the best choice to build new units.
I really need to wrap my head around the business model i.e. primarily a licensor of the process and a distributor of chemicals. The process includes sales of their AR box which can be manufactured by anyone so long as it is to the Natcore specs. I suspect the client will ask for a recommended manufacturer so in the end there will only be two or at most three plants actually building the box. Revenue will come from sales of the box and chemicals, plus royalties from the license. The delay in sales seems to be ,in part, from waiting until the black silicon license was granted, setting up the lab to offer potential clients a demonstration of the entire process and "tweaking" everything so that there aren't any hitches at the client's end once the AR box is installed. Once the lab is fully operational I would expect another 4-6 weeks to smooth out those hitches and then we should see some sales!
Thanks dmssin for the link. I couldn't understand the tech side but it seems like Microtec is selling the machines and Natcore is supplying the chemicals/process. I'm still confused by the suggestion that Microtec is behind the design of the intelligent process. I thought Natcore contracted them to build the boxes to their specs. Is there a difference between the Intelligent machine and the Ar box? If so what is the difference? If not what the hell happened to Natcore's supposed intellectual property rights? How does that affect Natcore's JV and its plans to market black silicon?
Good to know that even the pep squad gets tired of the team always fumbling the ball. Who ever is in charge of the lab project should have his/her feet raked over the coals; or someone else put in charge who can ramrod this thing to completion. Delays in construction can and do happen but this is getting ridiculous and doesn't foster confidence in the management team despite what the Chairman might say in his letter. Think Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez.
News report today out of Germany suggests that solar installations will exceed demand in 2012 in Germany and China. While a massive inventory of old panels still exist it is anticipated that new demand will spur development in the solar panel field.
And at home someone sold 37,000 shares of Natcore.
Yeah I did which is another milestone date delayed by this company.
i think the LPD process is useful in reducing the loss from the "large areas" and distances between connectivity nodes (passivation?).
BTW what is the status of the LOI with MX. Does Provimi's e-mail mean that they have parted ways? What about the proposed meeting with Phono solar? Have the 2000 black cells been manufactured for distribution and if not do we have a timeline for same? The lack of specifics may be due to VSE regulations but all the RAH RAH talk is getting tiresome without concrete news i.e. sales, contracts, funding etc. I suggest the company do whatever it takes to get the fracking clean room and lab finished so we don't have to hear that excuse any more.
I think I have my answer to why the stock keeps dropping. Apparently the rest of the world was aware of the problems with a tandem cell and only the moderators on this website had a different view of its value. Provimi casually dismisses the problem as "something the industry is struggling with" when we have been told for the last two years that it was the "holy grail of the PV industry" and its commercialization was 12-24 months away. Really ,really p.o.'d by this news.
I did buy more. Like futr, I plan to hold it for the foreseeable future.
Not whining, just surprised by the constant selling. I'm trying to find out if there is something about the stock that isn't widely known that would impact on dumping it when most of the news is positive. I can't find any negative comments anywhere on the web and it's not being panned by one of the newsletters which are the usual reasons a penny stock tanks.
Yeah but that sounds the death knell for the company. I've been through too many reverse splits to mention and every one of them has resulted in people selling like crazy.
I wonder if the Natcore share price is in any way, shape or form a reflection of it's involvement with Kodak. They are two separate companies but the market might think there is some financial connection. Pure speculation but I really can't explain the distrust and suspicion of Natcore. The management might consider some way to distance themselves from Kodak while, at the same time reaffirming that the R2R process is still viable regardless of Kodak's ultimate fate; perhaps another company that can duplicate the process is willing to step in if Kodak goes down in flames.
The market should echo your comments but for some reason all the good press is falling on deaf ears. I presume investors still look at it as a small start up with no revenue and too long a hold for most of them. The stock is like a dam full to bursting but work on the spillway is incomplete.
The NREL press release suggests that cost saving on average will be 2%. Were those figures based on using the AR box? Does anyone know what that savings means in dollars for a large scale manufacturer?
WOW!! Finally we get some good news! Its the beginning of a breakout year for Natcore. Congratulations to management and the shareholders who kept the faith.
That was posted over a year ago.The NREL website suggests it takes 90-120 days to obtain a license. The constant delays in moving forward are probably reflected in the share price as a lot of investors are tired of hearing empty promises and constantly missing timeline for product development. Yes,it is a start up company but the company is it's own worst enemy in announcing milestone dates and never living up to them.
All that being said I'm still holding as taking such a huge loss at this stage isn't palatable either.
Really, really, puzzling/frustrating to hear info from NREL that ignores the LPD process when they have a licensing request from Natcore to do exactly what they hope to achieve i.e. reduce costs and increase efficiency. A case of the left hand not knowing what the right is doing; or massive beaurocratic incompetence. Either scenario is scary.
As always, your response is appreciated.
Agreed the difference is staggering. Therefore WHY can a company like this get finding and backing from the big players and Natcore continually struggles to get press and support from anyone except from offshore sources? I've said it before, but it is frustrating to be a part of an important new and vitally needed product only to read about other company's poorer and lesser accomplishments.
JB tried to mass mail the potential investors but I don't think he or Natcore got much of a positive response. Hopefully the world will be in "shock and awe" once we get the NREL licensing and go into production.
Too bad about the extent of the patent. Microprocessors would have been a huge market.
Just speculating but Tom said that the lab was supposed to be finished by today (end of November). I suspect the meeting is more about getting the lab up and running than anything else. However that is an important step and, once completed, should kick start the much anticipated introduction of the black silicon solar cell.
While the tandem cell offers a breakthrough in solar cell technology, the microprocessor applications might offer even more revenue in the near future. It is a much bigger market, no regulatory problems, not dependent on the whim of governments and, as far as we know, no other real competition. The key to everything is getting the lab up and running, so we can continue to move these our products forward to commercialization.
Here's hoping the NREL license goes through before the end of the month. Somewhat disappointing to hear that the black silicon panels won't get to the potential buyers before the end of the year given the earlier timelines; but its very clear that Natcore is a long hold before the share price catches up to its potential.
Many thanks for the update. It has answered a lot of my questions/concerns. Now I understand why the NREL licensing has been delayed. Professor Barron's news is mindblowing!A prototype two layer cell in such a short time is a tribute to his genius.
Natcore's management has consistently held the course and refused to get a quick buck by partnering with others when they believe it is truly not in the best interests of the company. A bold and difficult decision in these uncertain economic times.
The next 6-8 months promise to be very exciting.
Nice to get a quick response. Nervous? Yes when the stock plummets in the face of what seems to be progress and good news; and (my fault) I have way too much invested in the company. Firmly believe in the product and what it means for the world but watching a sizable investment get eroded day by day is tough to take.
Here's hoping that 2012 brings a much anticipated turn around in the share price.
Someone just unloaded 29,000 shares and the stock is at .52 on the Vancouver exchange. JB and the other moderators are very silent. Some news about the progress of the lab, licensing, sales of the AR box etc is really needed to rally the troops.
Thanks for the post. It really did clarify the business plan. Still a believer but some news on the NREL license or putting an AR box into a production line would go a long way to putting all of our unease to rest.
I've been holding Natcore for well over 20 months and have a LOT of money invested in the company. In that time the stock has dropped about 35%; primarily because it has, as pnd4pnd aptly pointed out it, missed almost all of it's announced timelines to get SOMETHING into production. A lack of concrete information about the delays is hurting the company. If the black silicon licensing is stalled then why not get sales of the AR box and LPD process into conventional production? Supposedly it is a fantastic time and money saver so one would think manufacturers would jump at the chance to purchase the process; but that's not happening... WHY?? We have a working model of the box, have the technology and the brains to keep up with the latest innovations and yet NOTHING is happening. As more days go by with no news about licensing from NREL and no new developments on the boxes (sales) it gets harder and harder to keep the faith.
Hi JB. There has been a lot of speculation on just what Natcore will be selling down the road. Clearly we have the AR box and presumably we will sell the chemicals for the bath. The Ar box will supposedly sell for $500,000. In addition Natcore has plans to passivate black etched solar cells and either produce or "create" a process for thin film solar cells that can be licensed or sold to manufacturers with Kodak being first in line to develop them.
There's probably more but if the above is close to reality I'm starting to have a hard time seeing the gigantic profits we all envisioned last year. Based on current timelines it takes a REALLY long time to produce an AR box; (only one produced so far and we're still tinkering with it to "make sure it's perfect"). Microtec is the only manufacturer and when and if the demand picks up to say 25-50 AR boxes world wide we wouldn't have a snowballs chance of meeting the demand.
When and if we get a license to passivate black cells what do we do with them: sell more boxes that we can't produce in time for manufacturers to get the product to market? Where does the money come from in the process? licensing fees and chemicals again? Just how much money could that generate?
I still believe that Natcore has a tremendous potential but all these delays make me very nervous.We need more news about moving toward licensing, sales etc. than meaningless articles about possible expansion in the solar cell industry that is NOT specific to Natcore
O.K. Thanks for the clarification. You are doing a great job of keeping us informed but sometimes I wish you would preface comments from an earlier post as such so as not to confuse poor old brains like mine.
I'm confused by your comment that "now all we need to do is build a black silicon cell and test it". What is going on? We were told months ago that Natcore had passivated a black cell and, for lack of better words, tested it to show it could work. We are supposed to be in negotiations with NREL for a license to sell them and now you're saying they haven't been built or tested? I really need some clarification on this asap.
Hopefully the message will get out to the big market investors. However the article mentioned a thin film solar panel with 14% efficiency. Was that a misprint? I thought we were trying to achieve closer to 17-19%; or is that only for the black panels.
JB do you know if Natcore is seeking an exclusive or non-exclusive license from NREL? I presume they want an exclusive license but that might explain the delays. To grant an exclusive license The NREL has to be satisfied that Natcore and the LPD process is the best way to use the etching technology; and one of the criteria is "other interested parties" i.e. China. We might be better off to seek a non exclusive license simply to get our product on the market first and quickly move on to the tandem cell.
Let's leave the tech talk aside for a moment. Getting your product to the market first is the key. If Natcore gets the sector to buy a passivated black solar cell with increased efficiency in the next 6 months then it will be the "gold standard" until we produce the tandem cell.
And that brings us back to NREL and the problems we are encountering in getting a licensing agreement. A government entity means that politics will rear its ugly head and the best process will not necessarily win the day. I just hope that the powers that be aren't holding the JV with China against us; notwithstanding the fact that they ignored Natcore when they had the chance to get in on the ground floor.
Thanks for the reply. Did Tom Scarpa give you any further insight on when he believes they will be ready to market either product; beyond the usual spin of "a few months". We were told that the first black silicon samples were to be sent out in September and then it was before the end of the year. A few of us are getting antsy about the continual delays in announcing any sales. I understand the desire not to put out an inferior product but if it is taking this long then I start to worry about the viability of the product.
It really is a race to see who can commercialize the "next generation" of solar products. Two years for a tandem cell seems like an eternity when there are daily reports of new breakthroughs; keeping in mind that lab results are a long way from cash in the bank. I think Natcore is fully aware of their competitors and that's why they are pushing as hard as they can to get their process into production. I won't be surprised if they look for more private placement in the next 6 months or so to shorten the 2 year timeline.
I think one of JB's older posts quotes Dr. Barrron as saying that a new "breakthrough" is announced almost every week. The problem is getting the idea into a commercialized form. Natcore is very close to getting their product to market and that gives us a huge advantage.
Nice to see the article mentioned Natcore as one of Dr. Barron's commercial ventures. Now if we could only "fast forward" as JB said and get those contracts signed with some cash flow wiping out the red ink.