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Who said this was 'dead money'earlier todau? Bio has away of never being dull.
This will be about script growth or revs. With label expansion we need to partner with a big Salesforce and be at minimum #2 in the bag. 400 reps won't equate into blockbuster even with viagra type dtc imo
the quote of the day for AMARIN investors … ' what is normal is under tremendous revision' one of the panelist said this referring to generally acceptable triglyceride levels
what I'm hearing is a relatively safe trig level is probably below 80
no way is 1/3 of US population baked into present pps nor even properly dcf modeled within the next 5 years
550 epa to 220 DHA
..based on 1 gram
JT is communicating typically of a CEO in FDA approval process. He sounded confident of label expansion and was being factual regarding the various pathways to label expansion. When speaking of the market potential, he talks in terms millions of people in the US. What I know as a fact, 400 sales rep isn't going to move the needle much. I would expect the huge growth will only happen with label expansion and DTC promotion. In the meantime, I expect hit pieces and naysayers to continue to confuse the marketplace. I've been through this before with paradigm shifting SOC unfortunately for us it doesn't happen over night regardless of how life saving Vascepa will end up being for millions world wide. Today's pps will end up being a gift a year from now imo
No 3.25% lower
After, I have a substantial balance
A bit off topic but for those who have margin balances I was able to negotiate a lower rate with TD today about 3.25% lower fyi.. can't hurt to ask
and when its in the 30's can we look back and say it was timed and very usual in the biotech world
anecdotally to what we are hearing my wife got the script but couldn't get it filled. United is our provider
that didn't take long :)
let's get real amarin is not going it alone. They will sell or partner after it becomes clear they get or will get label expansion.. they need a sales team in the multiple thousands to adequately cover the PCP's, cardio and endo community and that is just for CV indications. DTC will be at a minimum 1 mil per week maybe twice that initially.. the opportunity costs of building out a sales team and R & D to expand indications because of the multifactorial effects is enormous. There is a way we get our cookie if negotiated correctly... buy with both fists
anybody know if the Q & A is going to be webcast? sometimes they are I don't see it listed for amrn though
exas and amrn have lots of similarities - both are paradigm shifters with better mousetraps that have to fight for market share with limited sales staff while clearly best in its class. EXAS recently partnered with pfe seems to have helped thus far; I think Cologuard is 3rd in the bag for pfe reps. exas battled private insurers and smear campaigns plus uspstf. changing prescribing habits is a daunting task. exas went DTC and the rest is crc screening history. no reason vascepa doesn't exceed Cologuard orders in 1.5 years. exas did a phenomenal job with the fda, cms and large payors. amrn should hire away the crew who executed all this for exas
big beat for 4th qtr should see ATH's soon
I added more this morning .. not worried about catching the bottom .. I've never caught any bottom or top been doing this for decades.. I liked it in the 1's and I liked it at 19 … lets chat in 12 months :)
Dan, he is being a CEO managing expectations. It's much easier to deal with pleasant surprises than to be explaining in 3 months why we didn't get fast tracked. I've been at this awhile myself and the best CEO's imo don't allow too much exuberance. Although, he did say 1 in 4 globally … now if that's 1 in 40 adults globally we have a blockbuster drug
JL all I can do is continue to buy the dips. I'll let my kids and grandchildren decide when to sell. A friend of mine who is dying just gave me a lump sum to finance his new born niece's college. It's All going into amrn tomorrow...
i'm buying with both hands …
to think the majority of the 275k PCP's are aware of reduce it results is wishful thinking... many may have heard the buzz surrounding fish oil and mineral oil creating more confusion. so I suspect you will see modest uptake on all prescription omega-3's. PCP's still order millions of FIT a year despite a better mouse trap with the same out of pocket costs - which is zero to screen for CRC. DTC is going to be the driving piece but it will need AHA info.. consumers will force PCP's to learn about Vascepa but it takes time to change prescribing habits
if its indeed a 200m raise at 17.85-18.50 not much dilution .. 10-11 million shares..not bad or surprising imo
Chas I have wondered the same. So it could be about finding out the optimal EPA/AA level. Then adjusting the amount of EPA uniquely to each individual? Like you mentioned minimizing the bleed risk which maybe an individual measure as well. The pill burden may factor in this as well. Just thinking out loud
this will never realize its potential as a life prolonging/saving drug with 400 reps. Early adopters will drive scripts for awhile but they only have so many patients. There are 275k PCP's no way in heck 400 adequately cover these docs. my guess is lovaza and generics increase in scripts as well which points to a differentiation issue. DTC will create omega-3 awareness but unless the script writer understands EPA they will revert to their script writing habit which recently is generic lovaza
What is unique about this particular investment for me is the ability to see weekly script data! thank you Sam1!!! We don't have to guess or speculate about the ramp. We will have a general idea of how things are going almost in real time. No quarterly earnings call disappointments as we will not be surprised either way. Sam1, thank you so much for sharing this precious information.
thanks JT!
Vascepa indeed lowered my insulin resistance as I was on Vascepa and metformin for pre diabetes. after 2 months of diarrhea from metformin I discontinued it and stayed on vascepa my blood glucose level continues to be in the low to mid 5's 6 months after stopping the metformin and taking 4's of vascepa. the reason I was on vascepa is a heart surgeon friend of mine suggested giving it a try with the metformin because he thought it somehow had systemic anti inflammation properties?? I'm glad I listened
mineral oil is non issue please do your homework
Thanks bfost from your exas buddy
rfj, I completely agree it doesn't happen over night however the pharma biz is quite incestuous so you flip the infrastructure from another cardio med company. the training is at a minimum the big piece is the FDA approved literature/info that can be communicated to the docs. there will be a DTC ad pounding tv/cable/sat. but getting docs to change prescribing habits is a daunting task
that's why imo 400 reps can't get the job done
Bfost that is much appreciated!!
I also think it's possible we get a bit of a bear raid/or people taking some shares off the table leading into Saturday. I'm holding onto every single share until my wife finds out how dough she has and finally gets a new kitchen:)
New chemical entity
yup MNBIO
no way 400 reps can do the job... 250k PCP's in U.S. they will have to co promote with a big pharma or sell to get vascepa into the mouths of everyone who needs it.