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IMO, should make a run at 10.80 ahead of earnings. The gap today will probably mark the next buy range. GLTA!
Trying to hold it back. Won't last much longer unless the market tanks.
Picked up some common today at 8.43 but holding back plenty of dry powder. Going to try and get $7 Jan15 leaps for 1.95 . GLTA!
altruism,
I see it the same way. Combine that with a market that is exhausting itself to sustain 14000. I'm looking for 13600 on the DJIA and maybe lower. It will be tough for BAC to find footing above 10.50. GLTY!
A couple of Points to Ponder:
Many of you have probably already done your DD, but for any newbies I figured I would share a couple of observations:
1) Revenue for 2012 Q3 was light and from the 14 Nov 12 PR we get “VirTra’s revenue recognition methods require orders to be fully delivered prior to revenue being recognized and during the third quarter there were a number of product orders that were pre-delivery.” A study of the USASpending metrics for FY13 shows $1M+ in Federal Government spending in Sep 12 and IMO, most if not all of that was not delivered by 01 Oct 12, leaving a backlog of a $1M+ to be realized in 2012 Q4.
2) From the 08 Jan 13 PR we have “the company has generated a record amount of sales orders for the month of December and for the fourth quarter of 2012. During December 2012 VirTra received purchase orders totaling approximately $1.21 million”. A review of the 2011 and 2010 Q4 reports reveal revenue of $2.039M in 2011 and $2.020M in 2010. IMO, the revenue for 2012 Q4 exceeded $2.039M.
3) Summary: Virtra is definitely not hyping their performance, but it is apparent the revenue is improving nicely. A close observation of USASpending will also reveal that FY13 early data suggests Virtra is on track to exceed their Federal sales from FY12. Now we anxiously wait to see if the increased revenue starts to make it to the bottom line. GLTA!
4) PS: Regarding all the recent reverse split and uplist talk; IMO, I continue to believe Virtra will uplist to the OTCM QX initially. They meet all the uplist requirements today, except for having a share bid price at or above .10 for 90 days. I believe the Virtra strategy will get the stock to .10+ shortly after the 2012 audit is complete. After an uplist to the OTCM QX and sustained improvement with revenues and eps, they could easily uplist to the OTCM QX Premier with a reverse split lower than 10 for 1. The OTCM QX Premier requires a bid price of $1+ for 90 days. I think a reverse split on the order of 5 or 6 to 1 could get VTSI listed on the OTCM Premier exchange. Disclosure: I plan to stick around for a while and will continue to add on weakness. I anticipate 2012 eps will exceed $500K, making the recent purchases below .05 a low risk investment in view of the improving sales figures.
IMO no need to rush BAC. The 50 day MA has been broken. A test of 10 is more probable than not. The market was very extended. Time to let some wind out of the sails. A DOW test of 50 day MA highly probable. I'm looking for 13,600 and possibly much lower. The DOW 200 day MA is below 13,200. GLTA!
Plan to double down if we get another dip below 8.50. GLTA!
Lowering my purchase range. Will start nibbling at 8.50, but will plenty back. I don't think a dip to 8 is out of the question. Market was getting very extended, time to reset. GLTA!
"Time To Double-Down On 3D Printing"
No rush IMO, it will come down more. Look for a test of 200 day MA. I'm targeting 41 to 45 as my buy range. Looking for a SSYS buy in the 51 to 55 range. Fairly confident one or both price targets will hit. GLTY!
Price is getting better, but I'm actually targeting the 52-55 range. If we could just get a market correction to kick in now, we could see a great buying opportunity near term. GLTY!
I think we might have broke the resistance. GLTA!
9.25 proving to be a little problematic. Once we get through that resistance, 10 should be an easy target. GLTA!
Nice week, but looking for volume to pick up. I'm back in. Didn't get as much as I wanted, but picked some up at 8.60 and 8.50. Had additional buys in at 8.40 and 8.30, but we didn't get there. GLTA!
After closer study of chart, I'm thinking some market weakness and continued negative PR for the industry could lead to a SWHC dip below 8.75. Assessing how much I will buy and at what price. Targeting the 8.60 to 8.20 range. IMO, that would be a great buy ahead of earnings. GLTA!
Looks like a lot of people thinks so. GLTY!
Looks like we may get a premium on AM's departure. GLTA!
Thanks oilfield,
Good stuff!
"Might be the same player trading the spread. Was sweet to push thru the 50dma. I see $.06s-$.07s by earnings."
You may be right; buyer at .04 selling at .055 for about 37% profit, with another buy order in at .05 to ride to the .06 to .07 range.
Also agree we will see higher levels going in to earnings. If not back at .07 by then, I'm convinced the 2nd year of audited financials well get them to .07 and well on their way to an uplist. IMO, an uplist to the OTCQX is what they will pursue. I also feel they meet all the criteria for uplist other than pps bid at .10+ for 90 days. Hopefully we see .10+ in the not too distant future. GLTY!
oilfield...,
Good to have you on board and thanks for sharing!
Have to agree on the wall at .055, but nice to see pretty much a matching bid at .05. I think they need to meet in the middle and get it over already
Thanks Jett,
I wouldn't be surprised to see CHK recommence the uptrend as we go in to the close. I view the pull back earlier today as healthy following yesterdays big run. GLTY!
Keep some powder dry. IMO the odds are good we get a health market correction near-term. That could be the catalyst to fill the AA gap. In the nearer term, wishing you more green days. GLTY!
"Looks like it moves exactly with the price of nat gas"
I have to agree. There has been a close correlation with UNG, but I like the CHK chart/technicals a lot more. Plus the current frigid temperatures are making the fundamentals look good in view of low mining rates and NG storage figures. Next couple of quarters could be good for CHK, especially if the cost of NG continues its up-trend. GLTY!
I would like to think we are finally through the 17 barrier. Hoping the recent trend in CHK stock price continues. IMO, there is very little resistance between current price and the 19-20 area. GLTA!
Thanks gunther,
Good news for Virtra and probably even better news for ADI. Their location and timing are good.
If this idea catches on, I could see 2-3 hundred of these places popping up all over the country. Great opportunity for Virtra to capture reoccurring high margin warranty, support and upgrade business for the long haul. GLTA!
Will continue to watch this 9 level closely. I fully anticipate a nice run back to double digits ahead of the Mar earnings release, but not sure if this is the start of the run or not? we could see another dip to the 8.75ish level, where I will extend my position. GLTA!
I tend to agree with the MF assessment. I also believe we will see good growth numbers out of China, India, Turkey and a few other places in 2013 which should lead to higher Al demand. Alcoa's cost cutting and efficiency moves the last 3+ years will be rewarded nicely when the global economy expands.
Near term I'm on the side lines and looking for the technical gap between 8.69 and 8.84 to get filled. A coinciding market correction could get AA down to the 8.50 to 8.60 area. I'm targeting a re-entry in the 8.50 to 8.75 range. GLTA!
altruism,
Agree with your observation, "reminiscent of 2 quarters ago where we had a 3 day sell off after earnings and lost of over a dollar on the share price... could see some 10's in the near future".
IMO, support at 10.60 which closely corresponds with 50 day MA will be the Bull/Bear showdown near-term. I will be watching sell vol closely in that area. If the bears get control, I anticipate they will try and drive it down to the 10 level.
In order for BAC to get much below 10, the bears will need a coinciding market correction. If that were to play out, a dip to 9 is possible.
If bulls come in heavy at 10.60 I intend to buy leaps; if bears take control at 10.60 I will hold off until we get closer to 10 to buy leaps. Any dips below 10, I intend to add to my core common holdings.
For now I remain patient and watch to see where it goes. GLTY!
I think we can make a run at 10 if we can get solidly past 9. GLTA!
Nice bid at .0475 today. 340K shares should be enough to break through .05 resistance.
All Smiles today and the volume is great!
"The software/scenario upgrades could be a significant portion of their revenue in the future, sorta like licensing fees that software companies get, once they have a significant number of simulators out there."
BINGO! I would like to think that the recent change in the systems price structure was to boost the number of systems on the street so that they can get after more of the high margin business in the long run.
Looks like the Kalispell Revs ($215K+) will be realized in Q1 2013. Below link indicates simulator to be operational in March and it was only approved for purchase this past week.
http://www.dailyinterlake.com/news/local_montana/article_8bfc8c24-5c5e-11e2-8deb-001a4bcf887a.html
I think we just broke out. Good day for AA. GLTA!
Good day for CHK; hopefully it holds up GLTA!
That's actually three new contracts since I looked last. Not as good as 2011, but trending the right direction over the last four years and they are real close to breaking a million for 2012. FY12 was a tough year for DoD contracts. If we can get this fiscal cliff resolved, I think DoD is ready to start spending some money again. Just too much risk with out a resolution.
I'll buy, but they have to come down to .04
Volume is getting back to normal. May see a bit more profit taking up till the 1st, but I'm thinking the support around 7.75 is going to hold. Starting to here under 8. GLTY!
It's at a critical level (200 day MA). It either bounces from here, or I think we see at least the 17.75ish level. I've been working CHK as my NG play the last 2-3 months since UNG didn't go my direction. UNG has my interest again and I will start nibbling at low 18. GLTY!
maksim,
You had this one pegged from the beginning. Good job. I cut losses when it fell below 9.75. Reassessing re-entry position. We have some support at 9.34, but now I’m a bit gun shy and questioning whether we get down to the 200 day MA.