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interesting day for miners - Gold and Silver...
End Barely Lower While Miners Gain 3%:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1254283200.php
SVM a nice silver stock...
that's been movign well lately. Profitable and pays a dividend.
bought bunch of KLSVF and SVM over last...
few weeks - silver, silver and more silver.
Banks (COTS) are now taking on...
China - which has publicly supported gold and encouraged it's population to buy over the last few weeks ----- could that be the game changer?
Sinclair has his shortcomings - but he has been following COTS as well as anyone:
Closing Thoughts For Friday
Posted: Sep 11 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: September 11, 2009 at 8:59 pm
Dear Friends,
A word of Old Gold Wisdom – the Gold War will continue.
The Gold Banks will throw everything they have at us when they get an advantage. Regardless, it is noise, drama, wasted effort, and totally futile.
Gold is going to $1224, $1650 and then on to Alf’s numbers.
Enjoy your weekend. Mr. Fred and I intend to.
All the best,
Jim
In The News Today
Posted: Sep 11 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: September 11, 2009 at 8:04 pm
Filed under: In The News
Thought for the day!!
The geniuses on F-TV are still quoting China dollar reserves at $2 trillion. Those idiots don’t even do their homework.
It was $700 billion before China even started their diversification.
"Cheng Siwe, a leading Chinese economic spokesman, criticized Ben Bernanke’s loose monetary policy at a conference in Lake Como, Italy.
Cheng went on to say that China was diversifying its roughly $700 billion of U.S. foreign-exchange reserves into gold. “Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up,” he said. “We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the market.”"
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Gold has broken the "grand" barrier. Wise Mr. Fred has known this would happen all along.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The winter is going to be very cold for the dollar and COT.
GOLD BUG’S DREAM?
China’s immense, and growing, impact on the global gold market
There seems little doubt that China’s economic strength can lead to it dominating gold price movement for the foreseeable future.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Friday , 11 Sep 2009
LONDON – There is little doubt that China nowadays has the financial muscle to effectively control the global gold price. The mere sniff of a report that it is taking gold into its official reserves to counteract dollar decline is sufficient to, at the least, stabilize the gold price – and there seems to be little doubt that it is so doing, but at the moment in a manner that is not designed to destabilize the dollar or, on the other hand, not to contribute to a quantum leap in the yellow metal’s valuation – yet.
But – should China wish to destabilize the dollar by announcing big gold purchases into its reserves to replace a good proportion of its trillions of dollars, there is also little doubt that it could do so. It is an economic weapon which perhaps has more power than a nuclear one if it wished to bring America, and the West, to its collective economic knees through currency war. But again that is not seen as an option – or at least not until the country’s domestic market is big enough to soak up all the manufactured goods China can still sell to the West.
Thus China is still very dependent on export markets, so revaluation of the renminbi is not seen as helpful and dollar decline has to be worrying. So the country has to move cautiously to retain some kind of global economic equilibrium.
But noticeably, China is already exerting its financial dominance. It has said its mostly state-owned financial organizations will have the right to default on some of the more dubious commodity and financial related derivative trades that they may have entered into. This has only raised a muted response from those financial institutions which could be affected because it is China’s financial muscle which is beginning to call the tune in world financial circles – not the mighty U.S.A. any longer. But it could lead to more grief in western financial circles and the already stressed banking system.
Dear Jim,
Chinese government banks are selling gold and silver to the general public. Thus they will feel a responsibility to support the gold and silver prices by continued long term purchases, now that they have recommended the purchase to buyers.
Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com
Dear Monty,
We both recall what the final downfall of the gold banks was in the 70s. They had their way with the market in the day to day sense, not trend sense from 1968 to 1977. That came to an end in early 78 when the Saudi’s took over the market. Gold Banks have no way to compete with governments. Even if the gold banks have the Fed and the Treasury as fine weather friends, a gold war between the US and China is both unlikely and would drain the US of gold and open a much larger risk than the occasional gold lease between the US Treasury and the Gold bank.
In short the China support is, as you point out, REAL.
Gold/silver bullion (the hard stuff) replaces a very important cultural need for the Chinese. Normally before a man marries he demonstrates that he has the financial capacity to be a good provider by having a house, as modest as it may be. Housing costs all over China, of all types, have risen to prohibitive levels for the average young Chinese man.
I am informed that one of the reasons for educating the public about gold and silver bullion (the hard stuff) is that it is now relatively affordable and may replace a house in demonstrating a young man has means and can therefore satisfy the parents that he is qualified to be a good husband for their daughter.
Your pal,
Jim
thanks Doubloon - was able to pick...
up nice position over the week in KLSVF. Looked it over and did tne necessary DD and believe your summary was right on.
My portfolio is loaded with gold and silver stocks - both a good and bad thing I suppose.
SVM - profitable silver miner paying dividend...
any thoughts? Dipped in a week or so ago and like most gold and silver stocks - up fairly well.
About Silvercorp Metals Inc.
Silvercorp Metals Inc. is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of silver-related mineral properties located in the People's Republic of China. Silvercorp is operating and developing four silver-lead-zinc mines at the highly profitable Ying Mining Camp in the Henan Province of China. The Company is also applying for a mining permit at the newly acquired, 95% owned Gaocheng and Shimentou properties in the Guangdong Province of China to commence production from mining operations of silver, lead and zinc. Silvercorp is the largest primary silver producer operating in China. Silvercorp's shares are included as a component of the S&P/TSX Composite and the S&P/TSX Global Mining Indices.
with gold over $1,000 - gold in...
ground is equal to sitting on top of big money. Changes quite a bit the real value of companies like this. We'll see what it does to the share price over the coming weeks - but the value of the company is up and if production has started - a PR announcement would shake things up here.
a good PR on production about now...
would send this almost straight up IMO. The current atmoshpere in gold and silver is "get in quick" if positive news comes out.
thinking about getting some KLSVF...
any thoughts on current situation there and do you know if they are profitable or near profits? been tracking so many gold and silver stocks and looking for the undiscovered gems. TIA.
largest holding by far = SLW...
which obtained when SVRCF was bought out and didn't sell a share. Doing very well and plan to hold for quite a while.
why I picked my picks...
just read the iBox - all the stocks I picked are listed there: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=14567
but why use GLD as the indicator when...
you could use gold itself? Using gold - it's broken out of a cup with handle formation (and a pennant) on signficantly higher volume and merely took a day off to consolidate before likely moving higher - IMO. We'll see - but when both the technicals and fundamentals are strongly pointing up - the odds are strongly in favor of up.
chances are this is "the move" above $1,000 to stay for a while - if not - then the failure of gold will be another instance of "nothing is for sure".
when gold pops $1,000 - this and other...
gold and silver stocks will rise to new highs IMO. Bought some and holding for new 52 week highs.
Roubini is jumping on the Schiff...
bandwagon - something he avoided up to recently. More and more he is sounding the alarm on inflation and the weakening dollar. the major benfactors = gold & silver - IMO.
favorite websites to track gold are...
http://www.goldseek.com/
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=3386
gold looks to have broken out...
a cup with handle formation - Bill O'Neil's (founder of IBD) favorite:
although this board doesn't have very...
many board marks - I'm constantly using it for the links to all the good websites - which I recently updated.
if this is the big one on gold and silver...
I'm loaded up and holding strong. Already made quite a comeback from the abyss - now looking to reach old high levels and then off to new highs. Best guess is that gold at 1100 and silver at 20 will put me into all-time high territory. Hopefully we'll see.
bought some FRMSF and NBRI...
in belief that gold and silver remain strong and continue higher - just more of the same.
Silver tops $15 and gold above $960...
this AM. Will probably retrace - but if silver ends above $15 - that should turns some heads. Loaded up on silver and gold stocks.
sold SWDHF way too early...
had a bunch at around .065 and made a double - but it's now at nearly .40 - a favorite of Peter Schiff's when it was single digits - great call on his part.
have it on close watch as...
am looking to pick up more silver stocks sometime over the next few weeks.
loaded up on silver companies making money...
SLW and FRMSF - and also some HL for the huge potential. Gold gets the headlines - but silver has the potential for the greatest gains IMO.
silver and gold tidbit...
Marginal producers offer the most leverage to gold (and silver). Say that a mining
company can show a profit of $5.00 per ounce of production when gold is
$350 per ounce. If we up the gold price by $50 per ounce, and the
company’s profit increases to $55 per ounce of production. This leverage of
course works both ways. If gold goes down $50, the company’s profit per
ounce will go from $5.00 per ounce to a loss of $45 per ounce.
dollar hit a low for the year...
today as gold and silver both up - related stocks doing fairly well. the strategy of following those who predicted the crisis is working quite well for me.
Inflation or Hyperinflation?
By Axel Merk
June 29, 2009
Inflation is dead – long live inflation! We hear about the threat of hyperinflation in the media – is this for real, can it happen in the U.S.? Are we hyping up the word inflation, is it an inflationary play of words to grab attention to discuss the threat of hyperinflation? Let’s deflate the hype and put inflation where it belongs… at the forefront of your concerns.
Stop right here. In the words of European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet, what we suggest is “extraordinarily counterproductive.” Discussing how policies pursued by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks might lead to inflation makes the job of central banks more difficult. That’s because the best predictor of future inflation may be inflation expectations. If people think there will be inflation, they are likely to have higher wage demands; similarly, businesses that believe inflation is baked into the system may continuously try to push for higher prices. The head of the ECB recognizes this and is rightfully concerned that this talk about inflation may lead to, well, inflation.
In contrast, the Fed wants to make us believe that there is so much “slack” in the economy – economists call this the output gap – that there is nothing to worry about, inflation won’t happen. What the Fed and the ECB have in common is a “trust us” attitude, telling us that as long as we put our faith into the mighty hands of central bankers, we will be fine. And that’s where the fundamental problem lies: rational investors ought to make investment decisions based on an evaluation of facts, not based on nice talk by central bankers. At least the ECB talks straight; the Fed, however, started out by trying to square the circle. As squaring the circle may be impossible, the Fed is likely to add a dimension, possibly turning the circle into a balloon – inflation if you will. If the balloon pops, we get hyperinflation.
The squaring of the circle is the phase we are in right now. A massive monetary and fiscal stimulus has been initiated to counter market forces. As a result, home prices have not fallen enough to be sustainable by incomes without substantial government subsidy – this may be the root of a most unstable situation that may lead to a fragile recovery at best. With interest rates low enough, the economy may indeed bounce from the bottom – economic activity had fallen to such low levels that many businesses had seen their inventories completely wiped out; if businesses wanted any sales, they had to buy at least some supplies.
But in our humble opinion, the squaring of the circle is doomed to fail and the first signs are showing up in the bond market. That’s because the government piled on trillions in debt this year in addition to running the printing press in high gear. Investors are becoming concerned that this magic wand might just be inflationary down the road. If, and that’s a big if, there is confidence in the Fed that it can engineer an economic recovery that is not inflationary, then the bond market will behave; once the economy is back on track, the Fed will mop up the liquidity it has poured into the markets; the administration will scale back its spending programs and present a balanced budget; and we will have Martians visit planet Earth. The likelihood of each of the aforementioned happening may not be identical, but listing the Martians in conjunctions with the remainder may give you a sense of our confidence in any or all of these being realistic.
Don’t underestimate the Fed, though: unless the public and foreign lenders completely lose confidence in the Fed, it has the power to control inflation expectations in the medium term. That’s why the markets react to Fed talk - when the Fed says all will be well, the gut reaction in the markets may be a sigh of relief. Even when Fed Chairman Bernanke warns Congress about unsustainable deficits, the markets seem appeased as if to express that Bernanke will impose discipline on Congress through higher rates if necessary.
The real question, however, is whether the Fed is going to follow through on its promise to keep inflation in check; a task that has been made ever more difficult as the Fed has piled up mortgage securities on its balance sheet that may be difficult, if not impossible, to sell again; or at least neutralize the economic stimulus created with this and other “credit easing” programs. The challenge is that inflation may show its ugly head well before we have a sustainable recovery. As pointed out earlier, even if we have economic growth, we don’t think any recovery is sustainable if home prices continue to be only affordable at interest rates that are highly subsidized. That’s where the squaring of the circle is likely to fail.
The Fed may actually want to have inflation to push up home prices; remember that inflation bails out those with debt (and punishes savers). Fed Chairman Bernanke has repeatedly argued that going off the gold standard during the Great Depression and allowing the U.S. dollar to fall versus other currencies was the key to ending the Great Depression. The Fed’s credibility is in jeopardy as it increasingly attracts political scrutiny; that’s because the Fed is meddling with fiscal policy these days: rather than “merely” printing money and setting interest rates, the Fed is providing money to specific sectors of the economy – the various lending and credit facilities, as well as active purchase programs of mortgage backed securities, amongst others, is squarely in fiscal territory, something that should be governed and supervised by Congress, not a central bank.
Some central bankers are so frustrated with this talk about inflation because it further undermines their credibility – and credibility is key for central banks to get away with the policies pursued. There’s a simple solution to this mess: have central banks stop the printing presses, have central banks stop meddling with fiscal policies. If the Fed were to stop being engaged in the pursuit of what we believe may be highly inflationary policies, we wouldn’t need to warn about them in public! We are not alone in our calls: German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently received worldwide attention when warning central bankers that they must stop the printing presses. The warning carried all the more weight as it is most unusual for a German Chancellor to interfere with the independence of central banks; please view a replay of our discussion of the episode with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business Network.
The reason why our calls may fall on deaf ears at the Fed is because the Fed is concerned that a premature unwinding of its programs could throw the economy into a depression – all the work to date to stabilize the markets might be in vain. We respectfully disagree in particular with the latter. Last October, the guarantee of the banking system ensured that the potential of a disorderly adjustment of the U.S. and global economy was averted; it opened the opportunity for an orderly adjustment. Orderly adjustment is a nice phrase for what may be a depression, but the alternative, inflation with the threat of hyperinflation may be, in our humble opinion, the worst of the alternatives.
Now we mention it again: hyperinflation. So is it a real threat? The simple answer is: it depends on how the dynamics play out. What we do know is that all hyperinflation in the world has started when a country’s central bank prints money to finance government spending. The Fed adamantly denies that that is what it is engaged in, but when something looks like a duck, swims like a duck, quacks like a duck, we call it a duck. We intentionally use such strong language to send a strong signal that the policies pursued, in our view, are reckless and dangerous.
We are based in California where, when one plays with fire, a lot of damage can result. Incidentally, California’s budget woes show just how serious the financial situation of many states is. State and local taxes are likely to go up, budgets will be cut further. Everyone is screaming for money; while even the Fed may not be able to save California, the Fed may be extremely reluctant to stop its accommodating stance given the grave situation so many consumers, municipalities and states are in.
In our assessment, the scenario the Fed would favor is a prolonged period of elevated inflation; some estimates are from 4% up to 7% or 8%; others higher - that’s the circle turning into a balloon. But the Fed cannot allow inflation to grow that high without a serious plunge in bond prices, pushing the cost of borrowing for home owners, as well as the government, to very high levels. We would like to point out that the government currently pays fairly little in interest expense since the government played the same “adjustable rate mortgage game” consumers did; remember how the government phased out the 30 year bond (“long bond”) during the Clinton administration? Well, the “long bond” is back, but 40% of the federal debt is maturing this year and has to be rolled. It has been puzzling that the government has not taken more advantage of the low long-term rates; a strategy we believe will exacerbate the cost of government debt in the long run.
Back to what the Fed may be most concerned about: the economy, in our view, is likely to stall with long-term rates going up much further, if the Fed is not able to keep mortgage rates low. Right now, the Fed is very actively subsidizing this market, printing a lot of money in the process. At some point, we are concerned market forces will overwhelm the Fed. Right now, the Fed insists it is not trying to keep rates down; it is merely “facilitating” the flow of credit. We believe such comments undermine the Fed’s credibility as, for example, the massive purchases of mortgage-backed securities, are in our view clearly aimed at keeping rates low.
Nothing during the financial crisis seems to have worked as planned by the Fed. Policies have been far more expensive as the Fed’s credibility has eroded. The Fed has repeatedly shown that it completely underestimates the political dimensions of its policies. Will the market really buy its tough talk? And if not, what will happen? If the Fed substantially increases its market interference, it can lead to hyperinflation down the road. How likely? We are reluctant to quantify it, but the risk is real. The appropriate way for the Fed to regain credibility may be to not only announce that there is a viable exit strategy to the policies that have been pursued, but to embark on it. So far, this hasn’t happened, the printing press continues to be very active with the Fed’s balance sheet growing steadily. We hope the balloon won’t pop, but hope is not a strategy.
Needless to say, these policies may be detrimental to the U.S. dollar because foreigners may have little interest in buying bonds with artificially low yields due to the Fed’s activities; while the U.S. should be able to finance its massive deficits, lenders want to be compensated with free, i.e. market-based prices. Did we mention that we believe the Fed may favor a weaker dollar? It might just be getting more than it is bargaining for.
Axel Merk manages the Merk Hard and Asian Currency Funds, no-load mutual funds seeking to protect against a decline in the dollar by investing in baskets of hard and Asian currencies, respectively. To learn more about the Funds, or to subscribe to his free newsletter, please visit www.merkfund.com. Merk also “wrote the book” on Sustainable Wealth, due in bookstores this October.
nice video on hyperinflation...
http://inflation.us/videos.html
Schiff - this is just the beginning...
http://vodpod.com/watch/1801837-06-23-2009-peter-schiff-video-blog
good site for his video blogs.
Schiff - June 12, 2009 -Property Rights Take a Hit
“Crony capitalism” is a term often applied to foreign nations where government interference circumvents market forces. The practice is widely associated with tin-pot dictators and second-rate economies. In such a system, support for the ruling regime is the best and only path to economic success. Who you know supersedes what you know, and favoritism trumps the rule of law. Unfortunately, this week’s events demonstrate that the phrase now more aptly describes our own country.
On Monday, the Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal from Chrysler’s secured creditors based on the government’s argument that the needs of other stakeholders outweighed those of a few creditors. In this case, the Administration concluded the interests of the United Auto Workers outweighed the interests of the Indiana teachers and firemen whose pension fund sued to block the restructuring. Given the enormous financial support that the UAW poured into the Obama campaign, such partiality is hardly surprising.
When making their investment in Chrysler just a few months ago, the Indiana pension fund agreed to commit capital because of the specific assurances received from the company. In allowing this sham bankruptcy to be crammed through the courts, we have shredded the vital principal of the rule of law, and have become a nation of men, rather than one of laws.
The risk that legal contracts can now be arbitrarily set aside will make investors think twice before committing capital to distressed corporations. Oftentimes enforcing contracts imposes hardships. That’s precisely why we have contracts.
Without absolute faith that deals will be honored, it will be extremely difficult for U.S. companies to borrow money. This will be particularly true for those companies already struggling with too much debt. Without the ability to issue secured debt, how will such companies access the necessary capital to turn around? If secured creditors cannot count on the courts to enforce their claims, they will not put their capital at risk. What good is being a secured creditor if courts can allow the assets securing your claim to be sold for the benefit of others?
Another problem with the government imposing losses on secured Chrysler creditors is that in its bailouts of financial companies (like Citigroup and AIG), the government took steps to specifically pay back creditors, even when those creditors should have been wiped out. This inconsistency and lack of equal protection further undermines faith in our economy.
The message here is clear: loan money to financial entities with friends in Washington and no matter how risky the loan, taxpayers will bail you out if it goes bad. However, loan money to a unionized manufacturer, even if prudently secured by real assets, and you have as much chance of getting your money back as finding Jimmy Hoffa’s body.
As if this wasn’t bad enough, testimony on Thursday from former Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis revealed a concerted effort on the part of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to pressure Lewis into hiding relevant financial information regarding Merrill Lynch losses from B of A shareholders. Recently released e-mails make it clear that the government threatened to remove corporate leaders if they failed to go through with the merger and keep quiet about the losses.
Again, the justification for the interference seemed to be the “greater economic good” the merger would serve. The right of B of A shareholders to be informed that their company was about to buy a financial black hole was clearly considered to be an acceptable sacrifice.
More importantly, the fact that two of the highest-ranking government officials can conspire to violate both securities laws and private property rights is abhorrent to everything America supposedly stands for. If they get away with it, which I believe they will, the precedent and the message will be chilling.
As a broker who specializes in foreign investments, I am always wary of political risk. I must consider how the threat of arbitrary government action could undermine the value of my investments. However, recent events show that political risk is now greater here than abroad, and U.S. assets, which have historically traded at premium valuations based on faith in our legal system, will soon trade at discounts to reflect this new threat. The fear of having contracts abrogated or property rights violated when doing so serves some contrived greater good will substantially raise our cost of capital and further reduce our competitiveness.
thanks again - got the...
new SOYO remote and it works great. TV still working great - too bad the company wasn't able to weather the storm.
going to pop soon IMO...
gold in the ground is just stored money that is expanding in value and profit margin for mining growing faster than price of gold itself. holding for a while and will continue to do so.
Schiff on his latest radio show...
said the days of $50-100 up swings in gold are very near - of course he's just one of many starting to get gold fever.
Still plenty of gold bears out there to give the market both sides and thus continue this steady move up IMO.
Gold and Silver - as well as the stocks....
have been soaring higher lately. If gold breaks $1,200 over the next few months - will have a very healthy portfolio thanks to the advice of those who predicted the crisis.
waiting for my SVRCF.PK shares...
to turn into SLW shares in my account - hasn't happened yet. Anyone have an idea of how long this should take?
Will be very happy to be a new SLW shareholder once the exchange is complete.
not so fast - good news...
for ethanol (maybe): EPA Weighing Partial E15 Approval
EPA is reportedly considering lifting limits on ethanol content in fuel but
restricting higher ethanol fuel blends to newer vehicles that meet strict
agency emissions standards, which could fulfill President Obama's vow to
lift "artificial barriers" to broader use of renewable fuels.
still own some GPRE
but the adjustment to my Ameritrade account,,,
was recent - go figure. Think there must be a grace period for companies to remedy whatever got the delisted. Not too worried about it. Important to note that KWGI still exists in my Ameritrade account- just that current net worth is zero. Imagine would chance quick if relisted.
Thanks Bruce - never thought...
of using the TV as a computer monitor - not a bad last resort. May try the ebay route - risky though since looks like it's still ordering from the company.
Hope you came out alright on this.
although the final verdict is still out...
following the advice of those who predicted the crisis has brought me great success. I define great success as giving me a third chance at riches. A long story behind the first 2 chances - with my 2nd chance being the last bubble in stocks in which my portfolio jumped up in hundreds of thousands of $$$. Was wise with some of the money and paid off a lot of debt - but played around with most and took some big chances on stocks and watched my portfolio plummet. Not to mention the huge amount of taxes I paid on the capital gains - which is money lost IMO. How low did my portfolio go - under $50,000 - very painful.
Was "damaged goods" from a mental point of view in that had little confidence for quite a while - but read til my eyes bled all the books I could get my hands on about the crisis, what caused it, and how to prosper in the coming days. It worked!!!
Mostly from gold and silver stocks - I am well into 6 figures again - fully back in the game. Peter Schiff's book and advice has been by far the best IMO. The saga continues and plan is to continue to hold most of my gold and silver stocks.
company bankrupt and I need a new remote...
for my SOYO TV. Old remote quite working. Can't get ahold of the company. Universal remotes don't work since the extremely few that have a SOYO code don't have a code for my particular TV. Switching channels manually is a pain. Learning remotes need to learn from an existing remote that works. Anyone have an idea on how I get a remote that works???
TV works great and was always happy with the purchase - but I got of this company a long time ago when the PRs and the financials statements didn't match up - as well as a few contentious e-mails with the CFO in which he basically told me how much smarter than me he was. At one time, it was my favorite stock and thought it was destined for greatness - not the junkyard which is where it ended up.
they zeroed out my balance on...
on KWGI in my Ameritrade account - which is a relatively new development - but they haven't yet removed the stock symbol. Not sure what exactly this means - but it can't be good - LOL. I was expecting it - but still holding out hope. Vaguely remember that when first bought this stock I actually thought I had found an undiscovered gem - not so much what I think now-a-days about this company.
Still hope? A little I guess.