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Disclaimer, sort of...
BTW, the Elliott wave count is mine. The software generated count is different, and I do not agree with it. Just in case you wonder, automatic Elliott wave count is no substitute for understanding the Elliott rules.
It is Advanced Get from e-signal, and it is not cheap.
I don't know if I would recommended for everyone. It has advantages like the ability to search the entire database of stocks and futures for Elliott patterns, and other TA features. The ability to do Fibonacci is fantastic. On the downside, it requires datafeeds for that kind of search.
If you even consider this software, I would recommend the end-of-day format, which is cheaper. You may get this one from optionetics. BUT, please do a lot of thinking before you invest on it.
http://optionetics.com/products/get/store_advget.asp
AAPL price projections....
Linda asked me a couple of days ago, what is my target for AAPL....
I said, I have none.
Perhaps some here do not realize the significance of the recent rally.
On 9/29/00, AAPL opened at $28.25 after a close of $53.5 on the day before. After closing at $25.75 on that day.
Since 9/28/00, AAPL has not closed above $27, until today. Not surprisingly, Volume has been extremely high, and stock price has increased about 22% in the last few days. This is no accident, it is a new trend.
The only question remaining is the motive. The rally started in earnest with big volume last week, supposedly in responde to rumor of a buy out by Sony. BUT we have heard (or read) this kind of rumors before, never with this kind of volume or reaction.
I think that AAPL simply had to made up fro the after earnings correction, and the stories about iPod mini are almost too good to be true.
In any case. I have 2 targets. One to mid April ($31.6), and the other for late July/August ($39.5).
These targets are based on Fibonnacci numbers and Elliott wave counts. Here is my chart:
Nickel:
I have been following Venezuelan news in detail for several years now on a daily basis.
What is dramatic about Chávez you can get out of his own words. You'd be shocked if you heard your own president say things like: "This revolution is armed, and will use all means necessary to defend itself". This in a country that has lived in democracy since 1958, the longest lasting democracy in Latin America.
Fujimori was also democratically elected, as was Hitler. Hitler rouse to power because people refused to speak out against him. You can take Chamberlain's attitude, but it will cost you years from now, when Americans have to go to take Chávez out.
But Chávez has now lost his "legitimacy of origin" as they say, because he refuses the right of the people to go to referendum. Just like Fujimori tried cook the results of his reelection, but neither the OAS, nor the Carter Center were willing to go along with it.
Frankly, I am not too concerned about your believing my story or not. Within a few days, the Carter Center and the OAS will walk out of Venezuela, expressing their inability to certify the what they will call a government fraud against the millions of signatures of Venezuelans for changes.
The Chávez media...
The recent violations of human rights, including unjustified emprisonments, excessive repression of peaceful demonstrations, and outright killing of innocent people (some of them shot by national guards in the back, execution style) speak volumes of the reality of the real nature of Chávez who has simply acted on 5 years of a multiplicity of threats against opositors.
Chávez capitalized on an antiestablishment movement through the late eighties and nineties (just like Ross Perrot would), to destroy the existing political parties both through bold political moves and his own rewritting of the Constitution. The lack of an effective opposition up until the days of the Coup, just 2 years ago, forced the media to be more and more critical (imagine that there was no democratic party in the US, all of the sudden, it would appear that 60 min was an anti-goverment media). BUT Chávez was hardly defenseless. Not only does he have control of Venezolana de Televisión, a goverment financed and operated television network that Chávez has transformed in a propaganda machine for the regime, but Chávez has control of the air space, so he can take control of the signal of any TV at any time, and he does. Almost daily, he forces all private network to connect to his propaganda machine in televised events called "Cadena Nacional" or national chain, that may last from 15 minuts to 1-2 hrs. Just this Friday morning, Chávez presented his case for well over 2 hours in a meeting with the diplomatic representation of many countries from Mexico, to Brasil and even Germany, and the Vatican. Not happy with the transmission of the 2 hr event life, he proceeded to transmit it in the afternoon, once again tight up all Televisions and radio stations in the country. Refusing to transmit the event would have resulted in loss of the license to use the airways. Against the law, Chávez transmits political rallies of all sorts, rather than Estate business. It is not for lack of media attention that his message is rejected. Further, Chávez has his oown weekly radio show, which may last up to (GET THIS) up to 5 hours, yes, FIVE hours. Chávez almost has the record for the leader with most hours of public speaking in history. ONLY CASTRO has accumulated more hours, and he has had 45 years to do so.
What Americans do not understand is that Chávez has complete control over the funds of PDVSA, reason why the so called Coup occurred in the first place. Not only is he using the money to control international public opinion (his plan is crumbling now), but Billions of dollars the administration has had in hand, have simply dissapear. Personally, I believe that he and Castro are accumulating the money for the ultimate goal: to expand the communist revolution throughout Latin America. The close association of Chávez with the colombian guerrilla certainly suggests that they are following that plan. So Chávez controls the media like we have never seen in Venezuela before, to an obscene degree.
In April 11, 2002, there was no real Coup d'Etat. People simply rised up and marched against Chávez who had limited, armed snipers around his palace. When he ordered the military to come out and protect him against unarmed civilians, his own trusted General, Manuel Rosendo refused to execute his order. By the way, there is a recording of his voice ordering the execution of the "Plan Avila", which is really designed to protect the city against a military attack. The marching peoples were merely armed with flags and signs (I have the pictures of the day, if you'd like to see them). Feeling cornered, Chávez spontaneously and of his own accord, decided to resign, and surrender to the armed forces. Totally unprepared to such an eventuality, the generals enchargerd, accepted the resignation, and immediately requested that a CIVILIAN, lider of the oposition, and president of the Federation of Chambers of Commers, Mr. Carmona, took over. Rejecting all previous symbols of Chávez's tiranical rule, including his Constitution, his National Assembly and his Supreme Tribunal (see my previous postings). BIG MISTAKE. The soldiers that thought they were restoring Democracy, suddenly had second thoughts.
Since then, Chávez has been using 3 adjectives to qualify ANYONE who dares criticize him: Golpista (coup attempter, conspirator), Terrorista, Fascista. By labeling the oposition in such a way he accomplished 2 things: 1. Gain the support of the international community (the president of the OAS russhed to aid Chávez, which gave him legitimacy), 2. Corner the USA as supporters of the so called Coup. The Movie you are describing, is part of his international campaign designed to paint himself as a victim. Except for 2 details: 1. He did order the shooting of innocent civilians, as he had been threatening to do since he took office. 2. He resigned from the presidency when he found himself alone, abandoned by his camrades.
Today, it is quite clear that he has no intension to leave office, which makes some people believe that the events of April 11, where a huge diabolic plan that permitted him to pain the opposition as antidemocratic, "clean up" the armed forces from those who would have emprisson him, and ultimately to gain the simpathy of his people. BUT his failure in this last point, has made him resort to repression and to use the control of other branches of the goverment (which he controls, of course), to deny Venezuelans of their right to vote.
I have tried to be as objective as I can, using FACT, as much as I can, but many of the observations made here are my own interpretation.
Thanks Dilleet,
For calling me and my people enchanting and warm... heheheh.
First of, Latin America is (or was) in the middle of 2 worlds. The US on one side and the Soviet Union on the other side. Some would say that our catholic upbringing make us more expectant of "God's will", rather than the more "go get it" attitude of Americans and British.
Guevara and Castro were the product of the cold war. You'd have to go as far back as the American/Mexican war to understand why there are animosities toward the US. Remember that the entire Southwestern US was "purchased" by the US from Mexico. During Batista's regime, Cuba was the playground for the rich and famous from the US. It was easy to contrast with the extreme poverty in a country dependent on sugar cane, tabaco and turism. It was easy for Castro to retain absolute power by chanting against US imperialism (Chávez is using the same tactics now -- See today's article on CNN and BBC on line). Helped by the Soviet Union, Castro became a stronghold of Comunism in the Americas. But even Guevara abandoned Castro in search for other fertile grounds in which to spread the armed revolution, until he finally died shot in Bolivia.
Alllende in Chile was an educated man, but the system he tried to instal resulted in much poverty (as we have discussed, that is all that comunism would ever generate), so his best friend in the armed forces of Chile, Pinochet, removed him from power in a bloody Cu in which Allende himself lost his life. Allende became a martir for the cause, while Pinochet became one of the most brutal dictators of recent memory. Somosa was a brutal dictator, just like Batista was, who lost his power at the hands of the Daniel Ortega and the Sandinistas. Eventually, the Sandinistas wer voted out of power. What all these countries have in common is the certainty that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. There are many stories like this througout Latin America's history.
>>Why is a country like Venezuela with all that oil money still not able establish a working democracy, we are in the 21st century after all?>>
Venezuela was a working democracy until this week. Since 1958, Venezuela has only have only duly elected leaders with limited governing periods. Venezuelans have marched dozens of times to ask for the resignation of Chávez, to ask him to keep his hands off PDVSA, they have had a general strike for 2 months (to which Chávez remained oblivious), and now they march to be able to excersice their right to choose.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/americas/03/06/venezuela.protests.ap/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36519-2004Mar6.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31839-2004Mar4.html
Castro continues to play his game of 50 years: To expand the revolution throughout Latin America by whatever means are necessary. Chávez is blinded by the idea and ambition of becoming the most important leader of Latin America. He has called himself the 2nd Castro, and other times he has called the reencarnation of Bolivar, who lead the independence from Spain no only for Venezuela, but also Colombia, Ecuador, Perú and Bolivia. In his own twisted mind Chávez believes that he would be liberating Latin America from the Yankie imperialism. I his mind he is also a 2nd Bolivar, using the Venezuelan oil to finance his delutions while driving the country's poor into poverty and even hunger.
Lango, a land of opportunity...
I said Venezuela once was. Back in the 70's with the oil boom, employment was plentiful and the government handled a lot of the wealth (and the corruption). The demagogue governments created burocratic, mostly non-productive jobs to keep people happy and would shamelessly buy the vote with crumbs, as you well noted. It was the private sector that provided the productive jobs, but as the price of the oil began to fizzle, Venezuela found itself in a long-lasting economic recession, starting in the mid 80's. The existing 2 party system began to suffer. The corruption become more and more obvious and more recented by the people. Chávez capitalized on that. BUT it is now obvious that his administration is 10x worse.
I almost recent (although understand your ignorance in this matter) that you might think that I or any other middle-class citizen might be oblivious to the suffering of the poor. I, like most Venezuelans, would take to the streets because we see that the people to suffer the most from Chávez's ignorance and radicalism in economic issues are the poor. There could be no full employment unless the private sector is encouraged to invest (as you well put it). BUT make nomistake about this: MOST Venezuelans are socially countious and want to do the right thing to reduce poverty.
Unfortunately, as Clinton shown in the 90's, it is NOT wellfare but opportunity that helps the most people to get out of poverty. The day the leftist, corrupt politicians in Venezuela take note of that and do something about encouraging investment and private productivity, rather than burocratic government job creating, would Venezuela have the bright future it deserves.
I believe that the world itself is divided in to haves and have nots. I think that US companies do a lot of good by exporting jobs to third world countries. Jobs that the uneducated people of such countries can do much cheaply, but don't tell that to the American worker's unions. Many jobs have been exported to the Asia-pacific rim, and countries like Malacia and Korea are doing relatively well. BUT this is "globalization", "neoliberalism" as Chávez will put it, the two evils of the world.
Cotton, Lango:
Cotton:
I don't like much what Bush has been doing either. In my opinion he has (advertedly or unadvertedly) attempted against democracy by trying to concentrate power and calling unpatriotic whoever dares to dissagree with him, and to limit the questioning by the press. BUT that is much different from trying to nulify the human rights as simple as the right to transit through parts of the city, to the right of protest and owning property, to vote and even live.
You may say that Bush nulified the right to vote by the way they handled the vote in Florida, but that is a matter of argument, I think. But it is quite clear that he will have to match himself against a formidable oponent like Kerry.
Lango:
I don't agree with your characterization that Venezuela (or perhaps you referred to Latin America) is polarized between extreme right and extreme left, Oligarchs and populist. Venezuela is clearly dominated by the left (both in government and in oposition). Venezuela before Chávez was governed primarily by 2 parties: The Social democrats and the Social christians (both moderate LEFT). Venezuelans voted Chávez in as a result of an anticorruption, angry vote, not and anti-oligarchy vote (much like Ross Perrot almost did here in the US). Oligarchy is a concept that Chávez introduced AFTER the election, and that has been using in the international forum to legitimize his cause. Chávez never sold himself or even used the word "revolution" before his election, and to this day has never used the word "comunist". Rather, he used the image of our beloved liberator, Simon Bolívar, calling his a "bolivarian revolution" to cover himself with the patriot symbols, just like the Sandinistas did in Nicaragua, covering themselves with the mantel of the national hero, Sandino.
But make no mistake, Castro is behind Chávez, just like he was behind Daniel Ortega. BUT Castro has warned Chávez of Ortega's mistake: to have gone to elections.
More info on Venezuela....
Hundreds of thousands march (again) in defense of their pro-referendum signatures, against violations of human rights, against the repression by the National Guard and to morn the deaths of the last few days.
Here is an ENGLISH site of "El Universal", mainstream Venezuelan Newspaper.
http://www.eluniversal.com/eng/index.shtml
Real time video can be seen in Globovision.com, although paid subscriptions are needed. I have seen the pictures, the streets and highways of Caracas are today full of rivers of people demonstrating PEACEFULLY. So many people cannot be suppressed by force or otherwise.
More pictures
http://128.241.247.93/
http://noticiero.venevision.net/
http://globovision.com/nacionales/2004.03/06/marcha/index.php
Your eyes don't lie.
Not right!
There was a huge abstension rate, alright, but the vote was split several ways (several candidates). What you are reading are the numbers of a second election (relegitimation) he did after the Constitution was written, and at the peak of his popularity. Knowing that there would be a landslide vote for him and his partisans, and to control the National Assembly by 2/3 mayority, and with the pretext that he was not elected by the rules of the new Constitution, he ran another election. This way he would pocket the 2 years he had already governed, and give himself the possibility of governing for 6 more years (instead of the 2 he had left) and run for a reelection (12 more years total), which would take him to 2013. Still, he wanted to rule to 2021, as he repeatedly advertised, eventhough this would mean a break with his own Constitution.
Ironically, many of his partisans in the National Assembly are now in the opposition, so he only holds a very slim majority there.
Chávez was elected with less than 30% of the vote.
Contrary to US, Venezuela has many parties and multiple candidates. You know, like Perrot and Nader, and without run off elections, this is possible.
Chávez is an adventurer who joined the Army with the sole objective to launch a Cu d'Etat to do away with democracy in Venezuela. In 1992, he attempted such a Cu, he failed, after much bloodshed. He went to prison, but was pardoned in the name of amnisty. The curious press, presented him as a folk hero, when he was nothing more than a self-endulging, power hungry thug with a unique brand of populism. His charisma gained him popularity amongst the poorest of the poor (classes D to F by Venezuela's own socioeconomic classification).
The left-most leaders of the country convinced him that he would do an excelent leader if he ran for president in the next democratic election. In 1999, after narrowly wining the election, he gained the willing support of 80% of the people. He tried to capitalize on this good will by doing away with the existing Congress (essentially a Cu d'Etat), to which he promoted a Constitutional Assembly with the pretext of re-writing the Constitution but with the true goal of dismissing Congress, and capitalize on his popularity. He eliminated de Senate (clearly a factor of balance), and eliminated the existing Supreme Court, and placing his own people in the newly formet Supreme Tribunals. These were all the building blocks of his slow cu d'Etat. But only the intelectual few were aware of his plan and execution.
Chávez has accomplished NOTHING real for the people, in fact unemployment is OFFICIALLY estimated at 18%, and the poverty rates have hit 80%. Meanwhile his attacks on the "oligarchy" have reduced the productive sector (meaning the private sector) and plunged the country in a deep recession. I could go on the multiple economic blunders but I stop here. Suffice it to say that his 80% popularity is now 80% rejection (my own estimation is more like 90%). Knowing that he could not survive an election, he also managed to use his controled National Assembly and Supreme Tribunal to ensure a majority of 3 to 2 in the Nacional Electoral Council (the 4th power of de State), to do away with more than 1 million signatures presented by the opposition above the 2.4 million necessary for the recall referendum (read the Editorial of the Washington Post on this issue).
Perhaps Castro and Chávez seem simpathetic to you because of their rethoric. But they do nothing for anyone other than themselves. Castro is in it because of the oil Chávez is providing him for free and Chávez is in it because he things Castro has anointed him to follow his role of expanding the revolution through Latin America. Castro already is well known for his dismal human rights record, a record that makes Hussein pale by comparison. Chávez already has dozens of death in his resume (I mean people kill by his orders), but he has only begun to suppress the people.
Chávez had successfully controlled international public opinion with his carefully crafted story of an oligarchy that does not exist. Governtments in Venezuela have always been to the left of the democratic party in the US, and 20% of the work force works in mostly burocratic jobs for the government.
Call Chávez communist, stalinist, or what you will. I just know a dictator when I see it, and I knew it since his failed Cu d'Etat attempt. Since then, I have only seen confirmation of what I saw as his goal. Power, power and more power.
VENEZUELA
The problem of Venezuela is hardly a "grossly inequitable distribution of wealth". Venezuela was until recently a land of opportunity, just like the US is. You could hardly blame the private sector for the poverty in Venezuela. Quite the contrary, in Venezuela, the largest employer since the 1960's has been the State, and the largest company PDVSA, the nationalized oil industry which Chávez has taken by force to use as its own cash cow and finance his "revolution" in Venezuela and the rest of Latin America, as well as to feed Castro and his bankrupt government.
Chávez's replaced the culture of merit in PDVSA for one who serves the "revolution" no one asked him to undertake. As any other comunist dictatorship he buys the loyalty by providing jobs for his unconditionals who are mostly utterly unqualified for the posts the are appointed for, just as he is utterly incompetent to manage the complex economy of what used to be one of the most economically successful countries in Latin America.
Venezuelans are mostly to the left of the democratic party of the US, but the opposition to Chávez expands the whole spectrum of Venezuelan politicians simply because Chávez is not interested in anything less than absolute power, and to pick up where Castro left off or, more accurately, where Castro and el Ché Guevara failed: To spread "the revolution" through out Latin America.
Venezuelans want to solve the problem of poverty. The oposition leaders understand that to solve the problem of poverty, progress and economic developement is necessary. The chavistas believe that the right way is to make life impossible for those who do not agree agree with their tropical brand of stalinism. The only way for them is to crush the oposition. The events of the last few weeks have left Chávez with no option other than using force against demonstrators who will not surrender their rights to free elections and democracy and human rights. Poor and rich, workers and business owner's alike are willing to put their lifes on the line to show the world that Venezuelans will have nothing less than democracy was we have known it since 1958.
I'd be careful to simpathize with Castro and his copycat Chávez, even if you consider yourself a liberal, by american standards. These are not "men of the people" These are thugs adicted to power who would put that absolutism above the lifes of their own fellow citizens.
I am a registered democrat. I believe that this is because of my background. Venezuelans from all walks of life believe in helping their fellow citizens and in general think that the fight against poverty is the duty of the governent. Clinton has taught me that wealth can come to everyone (or most) through economic growth and full employment, not through wealfare. Chávez has only brought more poverty, hunger and dispair to Venezuela, all to remain in power until 2021 (as he has vowed since 1999, eventhough the Constitution he custom-made, would not allow it). Only now, for the first time has he been confronted with the desire of the people to vote him out of power, democratically. Never mind that for the last 5 years has he done nothing but violate his own Constitucion.
Please read today's(friday's) editorial in the Washington Post. It seems like finally, the American main stream press has awaken to the danger Chávez represents to the so far, long lasting democracy of Venezuela, and to the fact that 90% of Venezuelan wants him out of power.
By the way, Venezuelans have been staging gigantic (300,000 to 1,200,00) demonstrations (called marches), so there is nothing new about that, perhaps with the only exception that Americans like you are finally watching.
Strength with high vol. is no accident.
I have not seen a piece of news warranting the news, so I can only guess that it is the mini buzz.
In any case, I believe, particularly in a down day, so I just bought back my 27.5 short calls while selling a portion of my $22.5 calls. This creates a bullish position while reducing my exposure at the same time.
This is for real Kevin.
New 53 week high.... news????
9:55AM Relative Strength -- Apple Computer resumes advance highlighted yesterday (AAPL) 26.90 +1.74: As we noted 15 minutes before the close yesterday, AAPL was making new highs into the close on strong volume. The price strength is continuing this morning, carrying stock to a new 52-wk high in a down market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/mp#aapl
Kev, this looks like the breakout...
With the stock going Up more than 5% and 2x the average volume (which I consider a buy signal all its own), AAPL also manage to break to a new 52 week high.
It is interesting how right afer earnings you had every reason to believe that the breakout would happen. I lost faith, but rapidly got in, with the slightest sign of strength, only to have to wait for a few more weeks for this to happen.
In any case, I believe that $24.5 is now the support. Although the resistance is still strong, at this level, back to April 2002, I don't anticipate a near term pull back.
Testing 52 week high.
should AAPL close at or above current prices ($24.5), it would be a new CLOSING 52 week high. As I said before, very bullish sign.
How about an e-pod along with iBook store?
A pod that allows kids to download pdf-formated textbooks and homework, submit assignments to the teachers and research encyclopedias, regardless of what computer platform one uses?
There are 2 possibilities for Jobs to leave Apple:
1. if he dies.
2. if the company is bought out.
Both in about the same real of possibility.
A more relevant question:
Rather than asking whether Jobs should leave Apple, why don't we ask ourselves how fast would Apple dissapear under another CEO.
Uptrend continues...
Despite a little pause in the last 2 days. Friday's rally took AAPL to only fractions of a new 52 week high.
The oscillators are pointing upward (MACD, Stochastics), and the Bolliger bands are bending upward.
I like to see the 50dMA BELOW the 20dMa and both trending upward, which implies a continued, intermediate UP trend.
The penetration of the overhead resistance at $25 will be a very bullish indicator.
Disclosure: I hold a "butterfly position" which is a sideways option spread with a max profit at $27.5 on July closing, and a range between $22.5 and $30.
Venezuela is not a concern for the US.
Chávez is "right" in one thing, Venezuelans do NOT need the USA to interfere. IF they manage to keep their hands off, and let the people demand their rights, they will get them, as it is historically the case in my country. Besides, the US government has manage to ignore the problem for 5 years, it won't be too hard for them to continue to do so.
Since I am Venezuelan...
and I follow Venezuelan news, and even write occasionally for Venezuela, I can tell you that he is a dictator who fancies himself the reencarnation of Simón Bolívar and Castro as his prime example. He claims that his mixed up fascist/comunist approach is a "revolution", but Venezuelans are used to democracy and won't accept that. The society is very well organized and there won't be armed confrontations, but I see Chávez leaving he country in disgrace simply because 90% of the people are against him. Ironically, he had the support of 90% of the people, shortly after his election, but he misinterpret this as a blind check to do as he pleased.
The list was there, in the Purchased Music playlist....
only they had an exclamation mark on the left most column of the list.
Under the file menu, I selected "show song file" and nothing happened.
I then searched the items via the finder, and they did not show either. That's when I new I had erased them, but not sure how.
For my play lists, I use the smart playlist command as much as I can, so my playlist will be automatically reconstructed after events like this or every time I ad a new song.
Go directly to iTunes Customer service....
And write a persuasive letter... HERE:
http://www.apple.com/support/itunes/redeeming_gcs.html
Problem solved.
Apple allowed me to download all of the 160 songs I have lost. They did it as a "good will" gesture. It took only a few minutes to download everything.
The songs were ALL listed, only with an exclamation mark to the left.
Thanks for all the help.
I thought I was backing them up!
I wonder if the transfer from one disk to another of iTunes was not allowable or something. I am not sure how it happened, I just know that the files dissapeared. Besides, the files ARE THERE in the iPod!
Of course the iPod may crash too!. It might be a good idea to keep a burned copy of all songs too...
I figure they would, but WHO do I call or contact?
Thanks
OT: iTunes music dissaster (personal)
My purchase music is all gone....
Every single song I downloaded seems to have dissapear from my hard drive, although they are still available in my iPod, which I don't dare to connect to my computer anymore.
I am not sure how this occurred. All I can say is that I recently changed my system hard drive. I copied all the files to the new drive (or so I thought).
Do you think that Apple would allow me to download the songs again? I guess I cannot copy them from the iPod again.
Can anyone help?
A double top is negative
But taking it out would be very bullish.
I am dissapointed with the fizzle out of the rally today. It is always best to wait until the end of the day before making interpretations of moving averages and bollinger bands...!
Oh well, perhaps tomorrow.!
Ready to continue rally...
The "curling up" of bollinger bands has begun to take place. This to me means that the trend is still up, and that a test of the highs will take place shortly. No need to tell you how bullish a successful cross over previous highs (24.6) would be. I am watching for a double top and then a breakout. Note the 50dMA, which is also curling up, indicating perhaps the begining of a long-term up trend(?)
Oscillators, candlestick and bollinger bands suggest sideways motion for the next littlewhile.
Natural resistance at post-earnings gap.
My sentiment is long-term bullish, giving the support at the 50dma.
Well, AAPL did hit the upper bollinger band. Now what!?
profit taking?
watch and see?
The weekly chart looks good still, but may be a while.
I would by in the speculation that these resistance spots will be broken, and AAPL could proceed to new highs.
I just have to mention where these resistance spots are for the sake of those that are looking for a spot to get out.
One dollar for someone trading options may mean a good profit. I am assuming that someone holding the stock would be in it for the long-term.
I have a call spread that expires in Jul. and it is called a "butterfly", my max. profit would be if AAPL closes at 27.5, but anything between 23 and 30 willl make me money.
Do you know of any reason
why it should go UP when the market is so weak?
Not that I would doubt the rally or anything, it is just that I don't see any news that would support this rally now.
I am keeping an eye on those Bollinger bands, which shoud curl UP.
The strongest resistance is at 24.5, the Oct. and Jan highs (double top)
Keep you eyes on the Bollinger bands
It is bullish that the stock price has gone over the mid Bollinger band (the 20dMA), because it usually proceeds to test the upper band. I suspect that the upper Bollinger band will begin to bend upwardly. So, the $24 target stands.
Lisa, I am short term bullish.
If you are into candlestick pattern, AAPL just made an engulfing pattern, followed by a confirmation on Friday. In addition to that, the price bounced off the 50dMA, which coincides with the lower Bollinger band. The oscillators (MACD & Stochastics) are both bullish and the upper Bollinger band is at $24.
My guess is that we will have a rally next week. We'll see if there is a break to new highs...
I'd be more concern about WMD-gate (eom)
I think that the buzz is that AAPL is actually making good money, regardless of their "pc market share".
The impact of the hp deal is being digested by the critics and pundits.
If AAPL is perceived as a music power house with the largest market share in legal music download in any pc, the revenue model will have to be changed.
AAPL has shown that it can make lost of money even at 2% pc world market share.
From my perspective, the market is in irrational exhuberance again, and investors are looking for winners. It is all a matter of perceptions, IMHO.
Positive reviews about AAPL lately, I guess
Check the headlines on AAPL:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL
The entire market is in rally mode, but AAPL is performing a tad better than most, I think.
Bullish again...!
Good bounce off the 50 dma. I entered a hedged bullish trade with Jul. expiration. We'll see. My target is short-term target is $26.