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smugs ... another great DD .. thanks.
traden .... this sort of market manipulation doesn't happen all that often ... I see the golds are spiking higher as if the markets crashed, I sold all my US traders and went to bed at 2pm their time ... the index went a hell-of-a-lot higher but not the individual stocks = warning ... its a Fed Ramp ... why now why here? Something smells.
That VIX chart just did the impossible!
Consider this (good board) - http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1250413
There was even a rumour spreading that Saddam was cornered ... they pulled all the stops out to keep the market up into the weekend last night ... why? I wonder if there's been a few Marine deaths in Iraq???
Look was not convincing ... I traded it a few times and gave up when there was no buying support into the rising market. The chart looks OK but I suspect a buying op US Monday.
Regards
angelo .. she's just started to run, solid wall of support at $3.75,first resistance $3.91, figure it tests $4 if market allows. Regards
basketcase .. to add to your confusion re VIX ................
Go to www.stockcharts.com and look under Chart School and you'll find this for VIX ... http://stockcharts.com/education/What/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_VIX.html
You can also learn a whole lot more there.
So when traden mentioned the VIX candlestick I looked up the chart and saw a doji on the Bottom Bollinger Band under 20 for the first time in a while ... which means the VIX chart has a high likelihood of reversal .. if so the market NORMALLY goes the other way (down in this case). Hence the significance of tradens find.
I usually watch the (VIX or) VXN, the USD and TNX charts and gold movement (also CPC and BPINDU and NYSI, NASI every now and then) ... If you combine these factors with an individual stocks chart, over time you'll start to make odds on predictions rather than random guesses at stock movement like most on this board were prone to do in the past ... they're a bit more reserved in this regard these days. I overlooked the VIX as the VXN isn't quite as obvious ... suggesting that the Dow is in for more potential selling pressure than the Nasdaq ... in theory ... not practise 90% of the time.
Confused ... just swot up from stockcharts and start monitoring a couple of market indicators till you get the hang of it.
Regards
smugs ... sounds great!!! Regards
Traden ... re VIX ... ha ... I'd taken my eye off that ... yep she's got to rise, market drop, well done ... lets see if the Dow can hold 9000 ... the VIX can rise and the market stand still, to do with options etc. Well spotted, thanks.
Regards
Hi Ollie ... thanks ... yep the Nas looks like it will wobble a bit for a few days ... gold stocks doing well ... EBAY ... nothing goes up forever .. watch the MM's try to dump it to buy in the split runnup.
This is what I use ... http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=look&sid=0&o_symb=look&f...
Regards
IMO AH BS ... EBAY is the culprit ... down $5 on announcing a stock split ... get real ... I smell a rat ...
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B90FC0541%2D9129%2D4959%2DAE28%2DA40F05D41973%7D&am...
Regards
Here we go again .. futures tanking!!! eom
Mmmmmmanipulation ... that's the name of the game! I see the Nas finished a fraction over 1700 on it's low for the day, whereas LOOK closed the gap and there was huge buying support in the face of adversity into close. Have a look at a daily chart and see how they manipulated it .. the wheels fell off the Nasdaq at about 2.10pm (always happens after lunch - LOL) but notice how they triggered LOOKs drop from 1.45pm with 500k shorts from then to 2pm to drop it under $4 ... then let the market do the rest ... funny how they knew just when to get it under $4 (Compare QQQ and LOOK charts to follow this). They must have known the market was tanking, bloody jack up every time!
Then they got it to $3.75 and even though the market was still droping like a rock ... those 500k shorts covered and made $100k+. They probably knocked off for the day then!
I suspect the market just wobbles along from here ... if so LOOK should be OK and this is the last leg down with a (hopefully) new five legs up about to start (depends on results and forecasts ... fingeres crossed) I'm placing a standby buy at $3.55 just in case the market sh$$s itself (gold doing too well) but I suspect this is it. Back in again at $3.81 US - holding LOK's also.
smugs ... remember about six months ago when you asked for a better stock than LOOK and I told you LOUD ... take a look at LOUDs chart and watch what happens to it over the next few weeks (they report the 30th).
Regards.
Gap filled ................... how long before you guys start to see the light ... doh! Regards
Gap to fill back to $3.75 ... Regards.
smugs ... couple of interesting things... quote this weeks Economist ""Merril Lynch estimated that last year an average company's reported profits would have declined 10% if options had been put in the accounts, and the average technology company's profits would have fallen by 60%." MSFT said its profits would have fallen a third.
RE Yahoo insider selling ... lots of CEO's have been selling shares at levels not experienced for a while, YHOO included. In these markets .. perception becomes reality ... if they're selling it WILL be perceived they are selling at the right time! This will become reality!
This isn't to say everything goes down tomorrow (although YHOO's chart has broken down and MUST bounce Monday!) or next week but the three year YHOO RSI just topped out ... Fact.
Regards
Traden .....................................................
It's a nutty week OEX and very hard to pin anything down. I think SUNW report Monday which I half expect the market to try to rally on.
What worried me today was reports of Yahoo's CEO selling 15% of his shares ... huge ... it knocked all the internet stocks for six. I haven't seen anyone report it here but I haven't read all posts ... if it hasn't been reported, it would be worth doing so ... the insiders of many big high techs are selling like there's no tomorrow! One more rally to come???
I think the next move (SUNW ??) is up as the second leg in this a three cycle down leg ... then down to $3/$3.25 odd .. then a five leg cycle up to earnings.
That's the logical plan if the market allows anyway. If it doesn't allow .. gap up earnings is also on the cards.
Regards
Gawd .. now they're selling the MSFT story ... let's see who wins first! Sometimes nothing makes sense other than the big boys always push it one way or the other to make $ every day. Regards
LC .. you're onto it! MSFT sales up, profit down but guidance up ... They always say "they" buy the market six months ahead .. so I guess they're buying for 2004 now. Of interest CAT just made a three year high today on big profit increase. (Why the Dow never tanked) No volume in LOOK which was a worry for me, but a solid close so I'm reeeeeeeeelaxed!
LC ... I snapped up a few of those other shares we share a mutual interest in ... <grin> LOL.
Regards
MM took 10k at 3.77, now letting it come to him and he's reloading for the next rally to sell into ... that's how it works! Regards
OEX week is NUTs ... Big MM buying on LOOK at $3.77. IMO here we go again. Regards
The INTC AH price represents a new 52 week high ...
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=intc&sid=0&o_symb=intc&f...
See how this chart "fills the gap" at about $26 from roughly 18 months ago ... "all gaps get filled" ... So watch for a retrace on the general market next few days .. healthy situation, and it creates a chance for LOOK to coil up for the earnings ramp.
Still waiting for detailed INTC guidance.
I'm still suspect about the market in general ... but best to trade as you see it day by day.
Regards
INTC up $1 AH, LOOK $4.02 ... this is the time AH counts IMHO. Regards.
INTC EARNINGS AH IS ALL YOU NEED WORRY ABOUT HERE. Regards
Support building here .. think she's definitely turned .. averaging in. Waaahooooo!
Long again $3.87 ... think it tries again tomorrow.
Smugs .. thanks for that ... great action today ... the Oz brokers who bought it up yesterday (hmmmm .. what did they know?). $4 is just about to get tested again ... lovely trading day ... good luck longs.
Regards
Nope .. classic case of short term overbought.
Percentage play ... keep averaging in next couple of days. Are we having fun??? Regards
smart .. you're so far behind the curve .. just IGGY me if you wish. Ignornace is bliss. Regards.
Hi smugs
Forewarned was ... you know the drill. Perhaps you'll look at a few charts with more interest next time. Anyway .. no worries. IMO, it'll bounce soon enough, like I've said, I suspect third of a five cycle up leg... target July 24.
Regards
LOOK and OVER now trading (intraday) on YHOO action around $35 ... It's now all up to Yahoo for the next few days IMHO.(or more news) Regards
YHOO's five day chart looks to be under severe manipulation (If I'm reading it right) in which case suspect positive earnings surprise! Yaaaahoooooooooooooo!
Can some of you guys get a US account and start day trading LOOK a bit ... this is fun! I got a call from a mate in the US that woke me up to the news ... Bt traders at $3.69 and started playing in earnest. Waaahoooooo! (Long LOK!!!)
Watching for key signal for the top .. suspect this is somewhere near top of third cycle in five cycle up leg (REASON - many instos will want to up their position, so they'll take the opportunity to short the news when the rally looks to be running out of legs ... so they can buy into the earnings FA IMHO)... watch for "Sell the news" phase and then rally into earnings.
Regards
Jul 11 ... THE BIG ONE!
Core PPI 8:30 Jun 0.1% vs. 0.1%
PPI 8:30 Jun 0.4% vs. -0.3%
Trade Balance 8:30 May -$41.0B vs. -$42.0B
Earnings reported July 24 after close ... if you want to know when Companies report stick their code into this site ...
http://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=askj
I see Yahoo is next week ... Wed after close. Sometimes the dates can change so best to double check closer and don't worry about the other BS on that site ... very very unreliable, but interesting anyway.
Regards
OT LC spotty.................................................
The US chart seems more interesting with a probable base at $5 which is your 19.5c again (if my math and the USD cross rate is right.) It's a company I just love the idea of ... and the long term chart ... and the strategic significance for Aus and the US if things get worse in the Middle East ... so I assume you trade it as you would an oil stock ...
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=%24oix&time=7
OIX ... going to reverse in two - three days ... hmmmm?
Regards
I'm playing next week like this.................................
I figure the US markets rally pretty hard for a while (events???) and will just hold the LOK's I have until volume or price movement says sell.
There's been a while without news and I'd expect the next move to be big as there's so much pent up frustration in this stock given many others in the sector are doing so well.
Funny thing is Gold looks half OK and Silver looks ready for a big bounce ... strange. Perhaps the USD gets hit shortly.
I'm actually quite comfortable with Look as the more I get to know the company the more I like their management style ... although "hands off" by Evan with his move to Oz is a worry ... I'm old fashioned and believe company staff always need to be lead by example. We'll see.
From a TA perspective ... one more small spike down wouldn't be a bad thing .. with a volume based reversal to form the base for the next leg up. Watching.
Good luck guys ... LC ... you watching old spoty?
Regards
Mortgage rates rise dramatically following Fed rate cut
By Holden Lewis • Bankrate.com
Rates on 15- and 30-year mortgages shot up immediately after Wednesday's Fed rate cut.
Most lenders raised long-term mortgage rates by one-eighth of a point Wednesday afternoon, immediately after the Federal Reserve cut a key short-term interest rate by one-quarter of a point. Some mortgage lenders tacked on another eighth of a point Thursday morning, for a total of a quarter-point rate increase in less than 24 hours.
That's not what most borrowers expect after a Fed rate cut.
The Fed controls short-term rates, and those don't always move in the same direction as long-term rates, points out Janis Smith, spokeswoman for Fannie Mae, the biggest buyer of mortgages on the secondary market.
She says that many investors expected the Fed to cut short-term rates by half a percentage point. When the Fed cut only a quarter-point, investors revised their rate expectations upward for everything from the shortest-term overnight bank loans to 30-year mortgage
STRANGE ... HOW'S THIS GOING TO HELP MATTERS?
Certainly a messy day today ... but the month end ramp is on ... and gold stocks were resilient today. Hmmmm ... more research needed.
Regards
$2.60 recent tripple bottom
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=look&sid=0&o_symb=look&f...
Everything looks set for a big rise from here TA by me. That's the percentage play IMO anyway.
Mucho talk of a big Greenspam push for a new high early July to prove the economy has some life left in it ... we'll see.
Watch the media talk up the positives of a quarter rate cut .. a half rate cut would have signalled desperation given they have so little left to cut.
Tonights trading will be sooooo significant ... should be heaps of cheap Fed money to ramp it. This is it folks.
Regards
OK ... I'm pretty certain I saw the MM buy 50100 at $2.61 at close ... that doesn't mean it bounces straight away, but it means he's on the buy side at these levels (I got more at $2.63)
Now in all those earlier Ozestock confrontations over the relevance of AH trading I always said forget about it ... today is different ... watch AH carefully ... I can't, I'm busy.
Regards
They'll declare a quarter point positive tomorrow and rally into months end IMO ... Buy Bulk and Save LOL.
Regards