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Clemsontiger,
You had me excited for a minute....12% and we know it is game over.
regards,
G$
(Oregonduck)
Sarrissa has now increased ARIA stake to 12%
Where is the SC 13G that reflects that? I think you may be blowing smoke.
and the company’s highly efficient drug discovery platform
Problem is, nobody in their right mind (if the above statement is actually true) would take $20 or even $50 in a buyout. It would actually be worth at least $100 or more. Ariad's "discovery platform" has always been somewhat of a red herring to me because if it actually existed as something special, Ariad would have been selling and partnering many drug candidates throughout the years and they simply havent....at all. I hope that I am wrong but dont believe that I am.
Great action today but real comfort would have been if it closed on the HOD.
G$
Yesterday's option activity was hope and guessing and not much volume. Today ARIA was number 5 on the volume list behind GOOG and SBUX...pretty good company....Then it just fell off the list completely (never seen that before). My massive holdings of May $10 calls are making a bundle. I am not quite convinced this is anything more that shorty covering as not to be short over the weekend.
All true linhdtu. I suspect the slight weakness on very low volume is just a few getting out who were expecting more PIII from JPM. I enjoy the opp to gather a "Dew like" holding...although I am still about 40k shares light...lol
Regards,
G$
ENTA:
As nice as it has been taking advantage of all 3 days of downturn, I would appreciate it if my $28 buy order was not executed. Dew, can you fix that? Maybe give'em a call and prod those next PIII results.....
this is a rumor initiated to let some entity dump an assload of shares. Option market doesnt reflect buyout talk.
On the other hand common sense alone will tell you that HB has been approached by BP and simply turned it down. Of course that was probably prior to Oct 1 2013.
Dont be a bagholder....gonna be lots and lots of them today.
G$
Dew,
Although I believe what you say, my comment came strictly from a headline standpoint. GILD...big numbers. ENTA smaller competition, no sales equals great trade...if someone was so inclined. I personally added some to my position.
Regards,
G$
Looks like ENTA is going to pay the price for a strong GILD Sovaldi launch.
In fact, the 45 mg dose may be the correct dose - at least to start treatment.
You are only able to make that statement now, AFTER the EPIC stoppage. I happen to agree that there are patients who need to begin therapy on 45mg but there simply is no justification to conduct a front line trial with the highest dose available when the drug was not fully understood to begin with....especially when patients would be expected to stay on drug for 10 plus years.
I would bet my bottom dollar that there was extensive conversation and disagreement on dosing for EPIC 45mg v 30mg. We may never know that but in the end what we do know is that it was entirely HB's decision as CEO.
Don't you think that Dr.Berger's stewardship of Ariad has something to do with its success in producing high quality drugs?
Of course it does but if those high quality drugs cannot be executed upon correctly then they may as well be sugar tablets.
cool thanks.
Dew,
When do you think ENTA will begin trading options? Are there boxes that have to be checked before that can happen?
Thanks,
G$
The data is simply outstanding in EVERY indication regardless of which ARIA drug is the conversation piece. No doubt we should be selling Iclusig in 1st line CML at this very moment and trading between $30-$40...there just isnt any plausible reason that we arent except that HB is still at ARIA. Bottom line to me is that no matter what news we get it would only move the needle short term. HB has to step down. I am rooting for Denner 100% to get a board seat and stir the pot. As shareholders it is our responsibility to see that HB leaves his post. Reality can be a tough pill.
I especially liked that 20% of the single-patient INDs approved were in 2nd line use. October complete overreaction. Wouldnt want to be short. It is an exercise in futility
SCTPF
Question for the all knowing....
1. At what point would we expect Tigecycline and/or SIRPaFc to be far enough along for SCTPF to potentially partner with a larger player?
TIA
G$
the current staggered board terms combined with the poison pill, aka investor rights plan, will make it an uphill battle for him.
I agree at this point in time. However, if Denner really plans on a true activist role, he will increase his holdings substantially imo. 6% got attention, but say...15% gets results. It will be interesting to watch.
Thanks Patrick. What are your thoughts about ICPT being required to run an additional trial?
Monday, there could be brutal downside early but will probably close without even to green if I had to make a small wager.
Makes complete sense. thx
What would be the purpose of resigning the day prior to an expiring term?
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140110/enta8-k.html
Others with NASH programs are LaJolla (LJPC), Galactin (GALT), Conatus (CNAT), Raptor (RPTP) and Genfit (ALGFT - Paris)
biocqr,
Any of the above ahead of ICPT in the clinic? Or do you not follow them?
I should clarify...I know that the ICPT trial was stopped early but that doesnt necessarily mean they wont have to prove it out in a time consuming additional trial. If they do have to run the additional trial then I would think this could be the short of the century. Either way, I dont own it and dont have the cajones to short anything. Just thought another company might already be involved in a long, seemingly hard to enroll trial essentially moving them ahead of ICPT in the end.
Others with NASH programs are LaJolla (LJPC), Galactin (GALT), Conatus (CNAT), Raptor (RPTP) and Genfit (ALGFT - Paris)
biocqr,
Any of the above ahead of ICPT in the clinic? Or do you not follow them?
thx
G$
lax,
I see no time frames mentioned other than the signature date of 1/9/14. Additionally, I receive all ARIA docs by signing up for email alerts on the Ariad website. I assume most/all filings of any company can be received the same way. I am ok with a 9% holding at this point as well.
I did as well. Still 9% ownership shows some confidence.
Unfortunately, that number is down 2.5 million shares compared to 9/30/13 filing.
thanks mcbio, I appreciate the perspective. Good luck to you and potentially me. Have some homework to do now.
G$
mcbio, Dew,
If either of you had $30k and a couple of years to wait, would you consider IPHYF worthy of investment? I know there are many factors but knowing what you know today.....
thx,
G$
Courtesy of Fiercebiotech
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/texas-bellicum-gets-15m-expand-work-gene-switch-tech/2014-01-07?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss
Thoughts from the science pro's?
I concur fully.
Institutional investors will look at the probability of profit and will invest based on that.
Speaking of the big money, the February release of Institutional holdings will be very interesting. From the time of the crash they have had nearly the entire qtr to work through positions.
The irrelevant 85% reported holdings as of 9/30 that keeps getting thrown around in some messages here is irritating though
Harvey will never sell the company, however partnering AP26113 is a no-brainer and would alleviate the need to dilute for at least the next couple+ years. This partnership would give ARIA the ability to accelerate Iclusig trials (non-cml) and give the new molecule (TBD) a funded beginning. BBB activity in brain mets could add 300m upfront...again my opinion.
G$
Arent there circuit breakers on the way down as well? Funny how we didnt trip a singel breaker on the day of carnage but did on the way up.....5 times. Something just isnt right that the shorts are being let out in an orderly fashion instead of getting burned. The volume yesterday should have produced at least a $10 print....even if this isnt a $10 stock yet.
The scam on the whole trading halt is that it is letting shorts get out the door without chasing the price. We should be smelling $12 even for a second as they scramble to get out.
Benzinga twitter says Iclusig back on US market mid January
That the market expects ABBV/ENTA to get less than 38% of the GT1 market is clear
I would think that we may be underestimating the potential market share once pricing has evolved. The numbers are the numbers and the numbers are liabilities to insurance companies. Given neck and neck trial results, there seems to be a possibility that ENTA gathers 62% and GILD enjoys 38%. Just thinking.
The market seems to think that 38% market share is too large. What do you think Dew? Are they being shortsighted?
“hiding in plain sight” for so long
Dew,
Would always be interested in any other securitiy(s) that possess this criterion.
Thanks for ENTA
G$
but is it really so unexpected?
See, that is the beauty of this release. Timing is suspicious and this is a piece of news that belonged in the original EMA opinion. There isnt any common sense reason that this PR showed up today as a separate finding when in fact the previous PR eluded to continued follow up on Iclusig. Just a negative boondoggle to keep the wound open.
Too many odd happenings around here.
Give it up.
Attacking the FDA is delusional.
Zip, I can tell you it is the ABSOLUTE duty of EVERY citizen to attack EVERY, single government entity at EVERY turn to ensure oversight. All governments from Federal to local are corrupt by nature. Corruption IS politics and citizens are the police department. Delusional is thinking that the FDA's action on Iclusig was in the best interest of....anyone. They can cover their butts with the patient safety argument but they should have pumped the numbers of AE's by fewer percentage points because their findings are simply not believable and not plausible. The facts are the facts are the facts....day in and day out.
But that is just me.
Regards,
G$