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"the disconnect between lithium prices and the demand side of the equation has never been bigger"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oversold-Lithium-Could-Be-About-To-Rally.html
Oversold Lithium Could Be About To Rally
By Alex Kimani - Jan 28, 2019
Nice.
New low in the .33-.37 area likely.EOM
"Around 2023, the falling demand for oil should trigger an oil glut"
"Today, the total transportation fuel market is about 56 Mbbl/day. (The total oil market is conveniently close to 100 Mbbl/day).
"It is interesting to know that if oil prices followed business as usual, EVs would replace ICE within about 13 years from today. This is dramatically faster than 3 or 4 decades as most oil and auto predictions forecast.
"By 2022, the 4 million EVs installed base will have grown to 40 million and the 0.1Mbbl/day will grow to about 1Mbbl/day. By that date, a glut is almost certain to have begun."
From:
EVs, Oil, And ICE: Impact By 2023 And Beyond
Nov. 28, 2018 Ross Tessien
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond
Summary
This article explores the timings and various impacts of EVs on Big Oil, and the ICE automotive industries, including shale oil plays, Ford, GM, Tesla, Rivian and others.
I find that ICE auto sales will drop 50% by 2025. Passenger car sales are down already with SUVs and Pickup sales to follow with Rivian and Tesla entering the space.
EV penetration into the global auto fleet should initiate an oil glut by 2023. Shale oil (high extraction cost) operations should become stressed first.
By 2031, there will be ~1 billion EVs in the global fleet of cars. This timing is 2 decades faster than many analysts are projecting.
Caveats: Dramatically lower oil prices will delay these projections and operational autonomous vehicle control will accelerate them. Some companies will soar, others will collapse.
Summary
This article describes expectations derived from a graph I created that estimates the pace at which EVs will disrupt ICE. Of note is that ICE vehicle sales should drop much faster than most analysts are projecting. Companies like Ford (F) and GM (GM) will be severely stressed if new ICE car sales trend toward 0 around 2026.
Legacy auto companies are planning on the EV disruption taking several decades. But disruptions never take that long once the new technology can match the old.
While Tesla (TSLA) is leading the disruption in the US, the majority of EV sales are being made in China. Whether Tesla will become the leading EV brand sold in China following the Shanghai Tesla factory starting sales remains to be learned.
Every graph I've seen that attempts to project the shift from ICE to EV all adopt the same, likely incorrect, idea. In the following graph, notice that the tops of the light blue bars follow a smooth trajectory.
The idea analysts are using is that the market for new cars will remain the same as usual, while there will be a shift from 100% ICE vehicles to some percentage of those cars being EVs by some future date. The BNEF graph above estimates that the shift will have reached 55% plug in vehicles by 2040.
I disagree with graphs that have this smooth top for total new cars sold for two reasons, in particular.
The time scale is far longer than is typical for historic disruptions. Disruptions normally play out in less than a decade.
The decision to - purchase a new car - is separate from and independent of the decision to - purchase an EV instead of an ICE vehicle -.
When someone decides their next car will be an EV, sales of ICE vehicles drop immediately. However, EV sales do not grow until that person finds an EV with features and price that meets the person's needs. The result is a drop in total new car sales as I show below.
In this article, I study the likely timings for these shifts in consumer preference from ICE to EV and from Oil to Electricity. There are around 90M new cars sold per year, and there are around 1 billion ICE cars in the global fleet.
Based on the information studied, I estimate new ICE car sales will be approaching 0 around 2026 and that the installed base of EVs will approach 1 billion by about 2032. I also find that a surplus of oil production should manifest around 2023. These projections are dramatically faster than most analysts.
I explore the potential ramifications of these estimates being correct and compare them to expectations of others that study historic technology disruptions like Tony Seba.
The curves are,
ICE sales (in blue) down 20% ~2021 and approach 0 ~2027
EV sales (in red) reach 20% ~2024 and pass 90M ~2028
ICE plus EV sales (in green) show a 35% decline in new auto sales around 2025. Some assumptions sets I made showed new cars sold dropping by 55% in 2025 for one year. The dip shown is a "best case" scenario for new car sales and assumes a rapid growth in EV production capacity.
Transportation Oil Demand (in purple) indicates a glut will form around 2023 with >2Mbbl/day demand displaced by the global EV fleet.
IEA estimates current global oil demand is around 100 million barrels per day. The projection is that the demand for oil is rising slowly, but with the changing markets, I use a fixed figure of 100 Mbbl/day. If actual demand rises, the effect will be to delay the downturn in oil demand slightly, but the EV effect is much larger than the projected rise in demand, making the rise insignificant compared to the EV penetration.
BP estimates that the global oil demand for transportation is around 56% of the crude oil demand. This means that around 56Mbbl/day go to the transportation sector, and this is the portion I consider in my graph below.
Plotting transportation oil demand out to 2032 and assuming a 1 billion car global fleet yields
"For my study, I chose the red curve in this plot as being most likely.
"I chose 2026 as the year when essentially all new cars sold are EVs.
"Tony Seba, who specializes in the study of disruptive technologies, now estimates that, by 2025, essentially all new vehicles will be EVs."
"I anticipate that, by 2030, around 700 million EVs will be in the global fleet. This is 3 times the cars in a decade less time than the OPEC estimate above."
"For this disruption to play out over the next 7 years should not come as a surprise to anyone that has studied past disruptions. EV sales are just now entering the rapid growth phase where consumer acceptance has flipped from one technology to the next.
Every legacy auto company has run advertisements now, indicating that they too plan to convert their line up to EV. From a consumer's perspective, this is proof that EVs are superior."
GM and Ford are right now at risk of following Kodak into the American history books.
A sudden drop in pickup and SUV sales greater than 10% of the market will financially stress Ford and GM as well as others. This is half the drop already experienced by many passenger car models. Ford, with most of its profits coming from its pickup trucks, should suffer the worst.
Does this mean Ford will continue the decline in stock value toward $0? I think the answer is yes. So, this makes Ford a long-term short stock.
o avoid this fate, GM and Ford would need to take drastic and immediate action to convert their entire line up to EVs. They would need to build enormous battery factories. And they would need to build a decent charging network that Tesla is NOT ABLE TO USE.
I see zero motion in these directions. When action is finally taken, the question will be whether there is enough time. When sales drop suddenly, the first thing to disappear are net profits on operations. And without those, legacy auto won't be able to develop their own EV entrants to compete in the new industry. Game, set, match to EVs will be the result.
If the downturn happens as fast as I project, it is already too late to react. Profits are about to disappear with declining sales.
If it takes a couple decades as the linear thinking analysts project, then sure, they will be fine. The problem is, as Seba points out in every talk, disruptions are never linear in spite of the smartest analysts at the largest companies repeatedly making linear projections for how things will play out. They are never right when it is a technology disruption taking place.
GM at least as the Bolt while Ford is in a denial haze, wandering off in "dead end hybrid land" with the market racing off in the opposite "BEV" direction.
Am I wrong? We'll know soon. Let's keep a close eye on pickup sales. The numbers should begin to drop by late 2019.
Could Tesla acquire Ford?.............
Time until a glut of oil results from EV sales.......
Which oil companies are likely to collapse first?..........
read it all!
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond
The EV disruption!:"Impact By 2023 And Beyond"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond
EVs, Oil, And ICE: Impact By 2023 And Beyond
Nov. 28, 2018 Ross Tessien
Summary
This article explores the timings and various impacts of EVs on Big Oil, and the ICE automotive industries, including shale oil plays, Ford, GM, Tesla, Rivian and others.
I find that ICE auto sales will drop 50% by 2025. Passenger car sales are down already with SUVs and Pickup sales to follow with Rivian and Tesla entering the space.
EV penetration into the global auto fleet should initiate an oil glut by 2023. Shale oil (high extraction cost) operations should become stressed first.
By 2031, there will be ~1 billion EVs in the global fleet of cars. This timing is 2 decades faster than many analysts are projecting.
Caveats: Dramatically lower oil prices will delay these projections and operational autonomous vehicle control will accelerate them. Some companies will soar, others will collapse.
Summary
This article describes expectations derived from a graph I created that estimates the pace at which EVs will disrupt ICE. Of note is that ICE vehicle sales should drop much faster than most analysts are projecting. Companies like Ford (F) and GM (GM) will be severely stressed if new ICE car sales trend toward 0 around 2026.
Legacy auto companies are planning on the EV disruption taking several decades. But disruptions never take that long once the new technology can match the old.
While Tesla (TSLA) is leading the disruption in the US, the majority of EV sales are being made in China. Whether Tesla will become the leading EV brand sold in China following the Shanghai Tesla factory starting sales remains to be learned.
Every graph I've seen that attempts to project the shift from ICE to EV all adopt the same, likely incorrect, idea. In the following graph, notice that the tops of the light blue bars follow a smooth trajectory.
The idea analysts are using is that the market for new cars will remain the same as usual, while there will be a shift from 100% ICE vehicles to some percentage of those cars being EVs by some future date. The BNEF graph above estimates that the shift will have reached 55% plug in vehicles by 2040.
I disagree with graphs that have this smooth top for total new cars sold for two reasons, in particular.
The time scale is far longer than is typical for historic disruptions. Disruptions normally play out in less than a decade.
The decision to - purchase a new car - is separate from and independent of the decision to - purchase an EV instead of an ICE vehicle -.
When someone decides their next car will be an EV, sales of ICE vehicles drop immediately. However, EV sales do not grow until that person finds an EV with features and price that meets the person's needs. The result is a drop in total new car sales as I show below.
In this article, I study the likely timings for these shifts in consumer preference from ICE to EV and from Oil to Electricity. There are around 90M new cars sold per year, and there are around 1 billion ICE cars in the global fleet.
Based on the information studied, I estimate new ICE car sales will be approaching 0 around 2026 and that the installed base of EVs will approach 1 billion by about 2032. I also find that a surplus of oil production should manifest around 2023. These projections are dramatically faster than most analysts.
I explore the potential ramifications of these estimates being correct and compare them to expectations of others that study historic technology disruptions like Tony Seba.
The curves are,
ICE sales (in blue) down 20% ~2021 and approach 0 ~2027
EV sales (in red) reach 20% ~2024 and pass 90M ~2028
ICE plus EV sales (in green) show a 35% decline in new auto sales around 2025. Some assumptions sets I made showed new cars sold dropping by 55% in 2025 for one year. The dip shown is a "best case" scenario for new car sales and assumes a rapid growth in EV production capacity.
Transportation Oil Demand (in purple) indicates a glut will form around 2023 with >2Mbbl/day demand displaced by the global EV fleet.
IEA estimates current global oil demand is around 100 million barrels per day. The projection is that the demand for oil is rising slowly, but with the changing markets, I use a fixed figure of 100 Mbbl/day. If actual demand rises, the effect will be to delay the downturn in oil demand slightly, but the EV effect is much larger than the projected rise in demand, making the rise insignificant compared to the EV penetration.
BP estimates that the global oil demand for transportation is around 56% of the crude oil demand. This means that around 56Mbbl/day go to the transportation sector, and this is the portion I consider in my graph below.
Plotting transportation oil demand out to 2032 and assuming a 1 billion car global fleet yields
"For my study, I chose the red curve in this plot as being most likely.
"I chose 2026 as the year when essentially all new cars sold are EVs.
"Tony Seba, who specializes in the study of disruptive technologies, now estimates that, by 2025, essentially all new vehicles will be EVs."
"I anticipate that, by 2030, around 700 million EVs will be in the global fleet. This is 3 times the cars in a decade less time than the OPEC estimate above."
"For this disruption to play out over the next 7 years should not come as a surprise to anyone that has studied past disruptions. EV sales are just now entering the rapid growth phase where consumer acceptance has flipped from one technology to the next.
Every legacy auto company has run advertisements now, indicating that they too plan to convert their line up to EV. From a consumer's perspective, this is proof that EVs are superior."
GM and Ford are right now at risk of following Kodak into the American history books.
A sudden drop in pickup and SUV sales greater than 10% of the market will financially stress Ford and GM as well as others. This is half the drop already experienced by many passenger car models. Ford, with most of its profits coming from its pickup trucks, should suffer the worst.
Does this mean Ford will continue the decline in stock value toward $0? I think the answer is yes. So, this makes Ford a long-term short stock.
o avoid this fate, GM and Ford would need to take drastic and immediate action to convert their entire line up to EVs. They would need to build enormous battery factories. And they would need to build a decent charging network that Tesla is NOT ABLE TO USE.
I see zero motion in these directions. When action is finally taken, the question will be whether there is enough time. When sales drop suddenly, the first thing to disappear are net profits on operations. And without those, legacy auto won't be able to develop their own EV entrants to compete in the new industry. Game, set, match to EVs will be the result.
If the downturn happens as fast as I project, it is already too late to react. Profits are about to disappear with declining sales.
If it takes a couple decades as the linear thinking analysts project, then sure, they will be fine. The problem is, as Seba points out in every talk, disruptions are never linear in spite of the smartest analysts at the largest companies repeatedly making linear projections for how things will play out. They are never right when it is a technology disruption taking place.
GM at least as the Bolt while Ford is in a denial haze, wandering off in "dead end hybrid land" with the market racing off in the opposite "BEV" direction.
Am I wrong? We'll know soon. Let's keep a close eye on pickup sales. The numbers should begin to drop by late 2019.
Could Tesla acquire Ford?.............
Time until a glut of oil results from EV sales.......
Which oil companies are likely to collapse first?..........
read it all!
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond
Lithium fundamentals are consistently improving while misplaced fear is creating investment bargains.
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/lithium-stocks-101-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/
Lithium stocks: here’s everything you need to know
Lithium – that silvery, white metal – captures the zeitgeist of the new battery age.
This is, because unlike other elements, lithium cannot be replaced as part of the next generation of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and stationary storage.
In this guide we’ll explain the factors that have been driving ASX lithium stocks and what could drive demand – and stock prices — into the future.
Exponential EV sales growth – from 2 million vehicles in 2017 to an estimated 50 million per year by 2030 — is expected to create huge demand for battery-grade lithium.
A shift to higher energy density batteries could also increase lithium demand.
Traditional lithium iron phosphate batteries are about 7 per cent lithium, but the “almost overnight shift” in preference towards nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) and nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCA) batteries increased the requirement of lithium by up to 50 per cent.
“While Chinese ‘spot’ or ‘internal’ prices for lithium carbonate have fallen back dramatically, they represent only a small portion of total lithium carbonate purchases.”
So basically, prices did fall in 2018 but is wasn’t as dramatic as many believe.
And then there’s the price for refined lithium hydroxide, which sold for around $17,000 per tonne – a huge mark-up in comparison.
Is the lithium boom over?
Not even close. It’s only just starting.
Canaccord Genuity mining analyst Reg Spencer says lithium stocks took a beating in 2018 because investors concerned about oversupply didn’t understand the “depth and complexity” of the lithium supply chain.
The supply chain from “mine or brine to market” could take up to a year — and that was before delays and other potential bottlenecks in processing, he said.
“A lot of analyst work that I see models lithium demand in terms of how many EVs are sold in any particular year.
“But when you factor in this 9-to-12 month supply chain lag, the lithium that’s going into the EVs that are getting sold today was actually produced and mined last year.”
Bloomberg estimates the world’s lithium battery-making capacity will more than triple from 175 gigawatt hours to 630GwH by 2022.
Battery metals data leader Benchmark Minerals Intelligence had similar forecasts.
It says there were 42 battery mega factories built or in the pipeline by August this year – up from three in 2015.
In September that number had already increased to 45, and by November 2018 that number was over 50.
By 2028 these mega battery factories — such as the gigafactories being built by Elon Musk’s Tesla — would need 840,000 tonnes per year of lithium.
But these projections are constantly being revised upwards, as the rapid pace of development amazes even the most bullish of analysts.
EVs are in the driver’s seat
“We need to remember there are not many electric vehicles out there yet,” S&P Global Platts analyst Marcel Goldenberg says.
“Electric vehicles are the driver. That’s where the disruption is coming from, and that’s where you will see raw material demand coming from.”
In September 2018, the number of electric vehicles sold throughout the world passed 4 million — and sales are increasing at an exponential rate, say researchers at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
This is a drop in the bucket compared to recent worldwide car sales of about 88 million cars and light vehicles.
But that could soon change. 2019 marks the start of an expected EV ramp-up for the world’s biggest carmakers.
For example, Volkswagen Group — which owns Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda and Volkswagen — says it plans to spend more than $68.5 billion in the coming five years on EVs, autonomous driving, new mobility services and digitalisation.
Volkswagen sees an EV future as inevitable and wants to “speed up the pace of innovation” from a position of strength and wants to produce one million electric cars per year globally from 2025.
To accomplish this, Volkswagen reckons it needs battery capacity in excess of 150GWh per year through to 2025 just to equip its own electric fleet.
That’s equal to the annual battery cell capacity of more than four Tesla Gigafactories.
…But stationary storage will also play a key role
Stationary storage systems are big batteries often designed to store excess power from the power grid, including from renewable sources, for use during expensive peak demand periods.
It also includes residential and industrial ‘behind the meter’ systems.
By 2028, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence predicts 50 per cent of the burgeoning stationary storage market will be lithium-ion.
But once again, analysts and industry insiders are constantly revising their stationary storage projections upwards as the industry accelerates.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), for example, has significantly increased its forecast for global deployment of behind-the-meter and grid-scale batteries over coming decades.
In 2016, BNEF expected 25GW of installed storage by 2028, and for the market to be worth $US250 billion by 2040.
Last year, it predicted 125GW of batteries would be sold for global energy storage by 2030.
In November 2018 it revised those figures again. Now, global installed battery storage capacity could reach 100GW as early as 2025, with 300GW breached around 2030.
By 2040, BNEF reckons the global energy storage market will grow to a cumulative 942GW, worth about $US620 billion in investment.
(Incredibly, batteries for stationary storage will make up just 7 per cent of total demand by 2040, with EVs taking dominant market share.)
EV sales grew by 40% in Norway
and 1 out of 3 vehicles sold in the market was a zero-emission vehicle."
"Norway is the leading market for electric vehicles and it keeps showing the rest of the world how fast electric vehicle adoption can happen."
https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/electric-car-sales-norway-2018/
"If we are adding all plug-in vehicles, it increases to 49.1 percent of the market.
That’s for the entire year, but some months were even higher.
In October, we reported that 45% of new cars were all-electric and 60% were plug-in in Norway.
"Norway aims for all new cars to be all-electric by 2025. It’s the most aggressive goal of any market."
Awesome
"Let The Fully Electric Flood Begin!Europe EV Sales Report
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/01/let-the-fully-electric-flood-begin-europe-ev-sales-report/
This is going to be a great ride!Yuge!
I'm locked in for the $10.00-50.00 future.EOM
I expect a dead cat bounce and new lows.EOM
China’s Great Wall Motor unveils $8,680 all-electric ORA R1 urban car with nearly 200-mile range
https://electrek.co/2018/12/27/great-wall-motor-ora-r1-all-electric-urban-car/
This falling knife could see .27 Be Careful.EOM
Capitulation is the kind of panic selling that builds momentum, causing a dramatic decline in stock prices and dropping them to a "bottom." This floor is often near or below previous support levels."It's when the towel gets thrown in".When capitulation occurs it indicates opportunity in the markets, if you know what you're looking for.
https://www.howwetrade.com/market-capitulation-what-is-it-and-how-to-identify/
Capitulation most often marks the bottom, or very close to the bottom of a decline in price.
To longer term traders this moment signals an excellent opportunity to buy at an “inefficiently cheap” price.
Capitulation selling is a wonderful gift!EOM
Lithium decreased to 105.01 points on Thursday December 20 from 109.42 points in the previous trading day. Historically, Lithium reached an all time high of 156.80 in January of 2018 and a record low of 62.79 in February of 2016.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium
Orocobre price warning drags down lithium stocks
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-lithium-orocobre/orocobre-price-warning-drags-down-lithium-stocks-idUSKCN1OJ0RP
MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Shares in lithium producers worldwide tumbled on Thursday after Orocobre Ltd said prices for lithium carbonate had sunk more sharply than analysts had expected in the quarter, and warned it did not see a recovery in the short term.
An oversupply of lithium this year has nearly halved prices in China, halting an unprecedented run for the key component for batteries used in electric vehicles.
Orocobre, which is listed in Australia and mines lithium in northern Argentina, said it would receive an average of $10,800 per tonne on approximately 2,850 tonnes of lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter, a drop of over 25 percent from $14,699 a tonne in the prior quarter.
That pricing was much weaker than analysts had expected, and suggests the industry will face slimmer profits next year.
.37 is my guess for the low.EOM
Emerging Economies Set To Snag $29 Trillion In "Climate Cash"
https://safehaven.com/commodities/energy/Emerging-Economies-Set-To-Snag-29-Trillion-In-Climate-Cash.html
The fast-growing cities in emerging markets represent a huge investment opportunity for green initiatives and industries—from renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs) to green buildings and public transportation and climate-smart water and waste solutions, the IFC says.
The six key areas of green investments—EVs, renewables, waste, water, green buildings, and public transportation—in the world’s emerging cities could attract US$29.4 trillion in investments by 2030, a new IFC report shows.
The institution has calculated that the investment potential in EVs is US$1.6 trillion to 2030, waste solutions could attract US$200 billion, renewable energy US$842 billion, public transportation US$1 trillion, climate-smart water US$1 trillion, and green buildings as much as US$24.7 trillion, for a total global of US$29.4 trillion over the next 12 years.
Of course, city budgets alone will not be capable of financing projects at such an enormous scale and amount, so the private sector, public-private partnerships (PPPs), and green bonds must also be used to finance climate-friendly initiatives, the IFC noted in its report.
"We could be 40% short of water in just 12 years."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article63685.html
The Bottled Water Bamboozle Dec 03, 2018
interesting
This article will take a look at this highly profitable but unethical industry that has duped literally billions of people into believing that bottled water is better for you and worth paying top dollar for. Of course, sometimes bottled water is necessary where clean tap water is unavailable. We’re exempting those folks, since they don’t have a choice in the water they drink. We’ll also do a global survey of the state of the world’s aquifers, to show just how much of a risk water boards are taking in allowing multinational companies to deplete billions of gallons/ liters of a scarce fresh water resource. We are truly being bamboozled.
A University of Victoria study found that just 6% of global groundwater is being replenished within 50 years.
According to the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI), we could be looking at a 40% shortfall in the availability of water within just 12 years - that includes the 600 aquifers that cross borders; at current usages, there are sure to be more fights over water in future.
It gets worse. As aquifers are depleting, demand for water is growing. It’s expected to increase 55% by 2050 - mostly due to the need for more food production. Demand increases during droughts, when surface water gets dried up first. California for example, in a drought since 2011, currently taps aquifers for 60% of its water, 20% more than normal.
So how are the world’s aquifers doing, region by region? NASA attempted to answer this question using satellite data. It found that of the major gravel and sand-filled aquifers, 21 out of 37 (56%) are receding. A third were described as “highly stressed,” “extremely stressed” or “overstressed”. SIWI states that nearly half of the world’s aquifers may be past their tipping point, meaning a natural recovery has become impossible.
The water table is dropping all over the world.
Conclusion
It doesn’t take a hydrologist to figure out that the world must stop bottled water companies from drawing down already-stressed aquifers, or even pumping from areas that aren’t water-stressed. When multinationals like Nestle and Coca-Cola are allowed to sink wells into aquifers for nothing or next to nothing, there’s something seriously wrong.
The problem stems from governments and their representatives being unaware of the fragility of our global groundwater. They don’t know, or don’t care, that we have a crisis of fresh water. Less than 1% of the Earth’s water is groundwater.
Our current rates of depletion are unsustainable. But if we did one thing to slow the depletion of groundwater, it might buy us a few more years: ban bottled water companies from extracting it.
It doesn’t matter whether the company is pumping it from bone-dry California or rain-soaked BC, eventually we are going to need this groundwater when the Earth warms to the point where all the glaciers melt and once-mighty rivers are reduced to trickles. Instead we’re giving it away. What are we doing?
there's much more in the article
Cheers
Pasta and Powdered Milk look like winners.
Pasta in packets can be kept for quite some time and in Venezuela's economy, is sold by black market vendors at 200 times the original price.
Powdered milk is so scarce in Venezuela that it is sold by black market vendors at 100 times its normal shelf price.
30 Best Valuable Items For Trade
In an economic collapse or SHTF scenario
https://thepreppingguide.com/barter-trade-items-postcollapse/
Warning concerning EMP attacks and solar flares.
"Military warns EMP attack could wipe out America, 'democracy, world order'"
by Paul Bedard November 30, 2018
www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/military-warns-emp-attack-could-wipe-out-america-democracy-world-order
A warning for all is needed based on a report focused on preparing for either an enemy EMP attack or a natural hit such as a solar storm , written by experts Air Force Maj. David Stuckenberg, former CIA Director James Woolsey, and Col. Douglas DeMaio, called for a national and congressional publicity campaign to alert the nation and governmental leaders to the threat.
"In an extraordinary and sobering report meant to educate the nation on a growing threat, a new military study warns that an electromagnetic pulse weapon attack such as those developed by North Korea, Russia, and Iran could essentially challenge the United States and displace millions.
"The report, titled, “Electromagnetic Defense Task Force,” and the product of a mostly classified summit of officials from 40 agencies just outside of Washington earlier this year, is a forceful call for a new focus on preparing for either an enemy EMP attack or a natural hit such as a solar storm.
"it appears to support a congressional warning that up to 90 percent of the population on the East Coast would die in a year of an attack that would dismantle or interfere with electricity, transportation, food processing, and healthcare.
Citing figures from the Union of Concerned Scientists, the report:
99 nuclear reactors would likely melt down without electricity to cool them.
4.1 million would be displaced from areas around the nuclear plants as the radioactive cloud spread.
Military and commercial jets, such as those built by Airbus, could be degraded. "Alarmingly, aircraft designed to carry large numbers of people and sizable cargo are allowed to operate without certainty about their level of resilience."
Bases would be cut off, making defense and counter-attacks impossible.
Civil unrest would start in “hours.”
Power and GPS could go dark. “An EMP would cause instantaneous and simultaneous loss of many technologies reliant on electrical power and computer circuit boards, such as cell phones and GPS devices.”
“Failures may include long-term loss of electrical power (due to loss of emergency generators), sewage, fresh water, banking, landlines, cellular service, vehicles.”
18 months or more are required to replace key elements of the electric grid that would be damaged or knocked out.
"Figuring out just which country launched an attack would be difficult since certain weapons could be delivered in a satellite."
"Meanwhile, access to the 5G-millimeter wave bandwidth will be critical to operations in all war-fighting domains, in particular, space command & control,” said the white paper.
“The potential for an adversary to inflict damage on states through EMS attack has grown significantly,” said the 69-page report, which warned, “An EMP attack affects all devices with solid-state electronics and could render inoperative the main grid and backup power systems, such as on-site generators.”
Cheers
==========================================
10 Things to Have Ready before the Huge EMP
http://www.askaprepper.com/10-things-to-do-before-an-emp/
10 Faraday Cages You Can Make at Home
http://www.askaprepper.com/10-faraday-cages-you-can-make-at-home/
Protect Generators and Cars from EMP
very interesting.eom
Some fun numbers:"Electric vehicles will grow from 3 million to 125 million by 2030, International Energy Agency forecasts"
So what if?
EV sales up 30% per year?
4mil 5.2mil 6.6 8 11 14 18 23 30 39 and 50 million units(2028)
lithium up 20% per year?
12,000 14,500 17,500 20,000 24,000 28,000 33,000 40,000 48,000 58,000 70,000(2028)
NMKEF up 60% per year?
.40 .65 1.05 1.70 2.70 4.50 7.20 12.00 19.00 30.00 50.00(2028)
Cheers
NMKEF could still test .40 but I'm not selling.EOM
Vision Lithium reports 1.85% Li2o over 13.50 meters in grooves on the Sirmac Lithium property
https://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=78631881&symbol=TSX:NMX
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/vision-lithium-reports-185-li2o-over-1350-metres-from-channel-sampling-at-the-sirmac-lithium-property-699917881.html
http://visionlithium.com/
Will Lithium Sink OPEC???
https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/11/absolute-return-november-2018-lithium-triangle/
"When I began to research the topic a couple of years ago, I got the impression that commercialization of fusion energy is still decades away with the consensus settling around 30 years. However, the insider view now is that we may only be 15 years away from delivering fusion-generated electricity to the grid, such is the momentum."
==================================================
Investment implications
Whether fusion energy ever happens or not, the outlook for lithium producers seems bright. That view is predicated on a firm belief that the world is moving towards electrification of all transportation and heating, which seems to be a reasonable assumption.
Firstly, fossil fuels are very much responsible for our greenhouse gases and secondly, there is a strong desire in the OECD to reduce its dependency on OPEC. The fact that the fossil fuel industry is a monumental user of freshwater and that it ties up ever larger amounts of capital to produce the energy we need to spin the wheels every day doesn’t make that desire any smaller.
As far as electrification is concerned, think about the ongoing electrification of the global car fleet. Lithium is a significant component in electric car batteries so demand for lithium will, as a result, increase for many years to come.
Alternatively, think of the electrification theme and combine it with another of ‘our’ mega-trends – The Rise of the East. The growing middle classes of Asia will want to go digital unless they have fundamentally different desires than the rest of us; hence demand for laptop computers, tablets and smartphones, all of which are big users of lithium, will grow for many years to come.
Another implication of the electrification theme is that commercial banks may ultimately cease to exist. Just like Amazon has disrupted retailers all over the world in recent years, a new technology called blockchain (which was invented to support cryptocurrencies) may disrupt commercial banks in the years to come. The main caveat is that everything needs to be electrified before we can take full advantage of this new technology, but the writing is on the wall.
All of the above may unfold long before fusion energy is rolled out. When that eventually happens, the implications for fossil fuel prices are severe. Coal and natural gas prices will most likely go to zero, as there will be no need whatsoever for either coal or natural gas any longer. Demand from the chemical industry (mostly to produce plastic products) will ensure that oil prices won’t go to zero, but they will almost certainly settle at levels dramatically below current levels.
It is impossible to say precisely when all of this will happen. When I began to research the topic a couple of years ago, I got the impression that commercialisation of fusion energy is still decades away with the consensus settling around 30 years. However, the insider view now is that we may only be 15 years away from delivering fusion-generated electricity to the grid, such is the momentum.
Given the dramatic impact fusion energy is likely to have on everything, investors are presented with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Having said that, economic growth between now and the day fusion energy is finally available on the grid will almost certainly drive fossil fuel prices higher in the short to medium term.
I don’t for one second believe you can simply go short fossil fuels today and then sit back and wait for fossil fuel prices to implode, and I will warn you strongly against shorting fossil fuels more systematically anytime soon.
Finally, in terms of the bigger picture, bear in mind that this is only the tip of the iceberg. Countries that are dependent on the fossil fuel industry for its continued economic growth – and no OECD country is more dependent on the fossil fuel industry than the US – will most likely run into strong head winds for a period of time.
Talking about OPEC, political priorities in the OECD will most likely change as OPEC’s powers begin to fade. And, as that happens, other countries – those rich on lithium – will move to the forefront. I have even (half) joked that OPEC at some point in the future may be replaced by OLEC - the Organisation of Lithium Exporting Countries.
With the biggest lithium reserves in the Lithium Triangle, and with Chile being a price-setter, could Chile become the new Saudi Arabia? Not as far-fetched as you may think. At the very least, the South American continent’s prominence and political influence will most likely grow as fusion energy becomes more than a distant vision.
=====================================
What happens if you take half a bathtub of water - seawater will do – and the amount of lithium that goes into one laptop battery? The purists will probably say “not a lot” and, at first glance, that is indeed correct.
However, imagine that the ongoing research into fusion energy is a few years further down the road, and scientists find a way to commercialise a technology that has already been proven in research laboratories all over the world. A lot will now happen.
As I said last month, the fusion process - converting hydrogen to helium - releases about 10 million times more energy than what is released when burning the same amount of hydrogen. While a 1000 MW coal-fired power plant requires 2.7 million tonnes of coal per year, a fusion plant which is geared to deliver the same output will only require 250 kilos of fuel per year.
Only a few grams of fuel are present in the plasma at any point in time. This makes the fusion reactor incredibly economical in its fuel consumption, and it adds important safety features to the process. In plain English, combining the half-filled bathtub of water and the lithium from the laptop battery will lead to about 200,000 kWh of electricity – about 30 years of UK per capita electricity consumption
Technically, what happens is that you make two hydrogen isotopes, deuterium and tritium, collide, and the fusion produces a heavier element, helium, and a neutron. Lithium is the fuel that operates the fusion power plants. You can read more about it here:
https://www.iter.org/sci/FusionFuels
Will Lithium Sink OPEC?
https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/11/absolute-return-november-2018-lithium-triangle/
"When I began to research the topic a couple of years ago, I got the impression that commercialization of fusion energy is still decades away with the consensus settling around 30 years. However, the insider view now is that we may only be 15 years away from delivering fusion-generated electricity to the grid, such is the momentum."
==================================================
Investment implications
Whether fusion energy ever happens or not, the outlook for lithium producers seems bright. That view is predicated on a firm belief that the world is moving towards electrification of all transportation and heating, which seems to be a reasonable assumption.
Firstly, fossil fuels are very much responsible for our greenhouse gases and secondly, there is a strong desire in the OECD to reduce its dependency on OPEC. The fact that the fossil fuel industry is a monumental user of freshwater and that it ties up ever larger amounts of capital to produce the energy we need to spin the wheels every day doesn’t make that desire any smaller.
As far as electrification is concerned, think about the ongoing electrification of the global car fleet. Lithium is a significant component in electric car batteries so demand for lithium will, as a result, increase for many years to come.
Alternatively, think of the electrification theme and combine it with another of ‘our’ mega-trends – The Rise of the East. The growing middle classes of Asia will want to go digital unless they have fundamentally different desires than the rest of us; hence demand for laptop computers, tablets and smartphones, all of which are big users of lithium, will grow for many years to come.
Another implication of the electrification theme is that commercial banks may ultimately cease to exist. Just like Amazon has disrupted retailers all over the world in recent years, a new technology called blockchain (which was invented to support cryptocurrencies) may disrupt commercial banks in the years to come. The main caveat is that everything needs to be electrified before we can take full advantage of this new technology, but the writing is on the wall.
All of the above may unfold long before fusion energy is rolled out. When that eventually happens, the implications for fossil fuel prices are severe. Coal and natural gas prices will most likely go to zero, as there will be no need whatsoever for either coal or natural gas any longer. Demand from the chemical industry (mostly to produce plastic products) will ensure that oil prices won’t go to zero, but they will almost certainly settle at levels dramatically below current levels.
It is impossible to say precisely when all of this will happen. When I began to research the topic a couple of years ago, I got the impression that commercialisation of fusion energy is still decades away with the consensus settling around 30 years. However, the insider view now is that we may only be 15 years away from delivering fusion-generated electricity to the grid, such is the momentum.
Given the dramatic impact fusion energy is likely to have on everything, investors are presented with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Having said that, economic growth between now and the day fusion energy is finally available on the grid will almost certainly drive fossil fuel prices higher in the short to medium term.
I don’t for one second believe you can simply go short fossil fuels today and then sit back and wait for fossil fuel prices to implode, and I will warn you strongly against shorting fossil fuels more systematically anytime soon.
Finally, in terms of the bigger picture, bear in mind that this is only the tip of the iceberg. Countries that are dependent on the fossil fuel industry for its continued economic growth – and no OECD country is more dependent on the fossil fuel industry than the US – will most likely run into strong head winds for a period of time.
Talking about OPEC, political priorities in the OECD will most likely change as OPEC’s powers begin to fade. And, as that happens, other countries – those rich on lithium – will move to the forefront. I have even (half) joked that OPEC at some point in the future may be replaced by OLEC - the Organisation of Lithium Exporting Countries.
With the biggest lithium reserves in the Lithium Triangle, and with Chile being a price-setter, could Chile become the new Saudi Arabia? Not as far-fetched as you may think. At the very least, the South American continent’s prominence and political influence will most likely grow as fusion energy becomes more than a distant vision.
=====================================
What happens if you take half a bathtub of water - seawater will do – and the amount of lithium that goes into one laptop battery? The purists will probably say “not a lot” and, at first glance, that is indeed correct.
However, imagine that the ongoing research into fusion energy is a few years further down the road, and scientists find a way to commercialise a technology that has already been proven in research laboratories all over the world. A lot will now happen.
As I said last month, the fusion process - converting hydrogen to helium - releases about 10 million times more energy than what is released when burning the same amount of hydrogen. While a 1000 MW coal-fired power plant requires 2.7 million tonnes of coal per year, a fusion plant which is geared to deliver the same output will only require 250 kilos of fuel per year.
Only a few grams of fuel are present in the plasma at any point in time. This makes the fusion reactor incredibly economical in its fuel consumption, and it adds important safety features to the process. In plain English, combining the half-filled bathtub of water and the lithium from the laptop battery will lead to about 200,000 kWh of electricity – about 30 years of UK per capita electricity consumption
Technically, what happens is that you make two hydrogen isotopes, deuterium and tritium, collide, and the fusion produces a heavier element, helium, and a neutron. Lithium is the fuel that operates the fusion power plants. You can read more about it here:
https://www.iter.org/sci/FusionFuels
Exciting time in EV land: Lime skips scooters in Seattle to reportedly test out small electric car rentals
Micah Toll
- Nov. 5th 2018
https://electrek.co/2018/11/05/lime-electric-cars/
Lime is reportedly preparing to upgrade from Lime bikes and scooters to small Lime electric cars, with tests planned soon in Seattle. The move would put them in increasingly direct competition with ride-share services such as Uber and Lyft.
Lime electric cars
According to a report from The Information, Lime has already filed paperwork in Seattle to institute a ride-sharing pilot with Lime electric cars.
The program would work similarly to the scooter sharing and bike sharing networks Lime already operates. However, instead of hopping on an electric scooter or bike, you’d hop in a little Lime electric car.
The cars could be parked around the city similar to Lime’s dockless electric bicycles and scooters. Riders would not need to search for a designated Lime parking spot, but could instead park Lime electric cars anywhere car parking is allowed.
The pilot program looks like it will involve 500 cars initially. So far, the mini electric cars are reported to be Fiat 500e and Renault Twizy vehicles.
The Twizy is no stranger to electric car sharing programs, and is already in use as part of similar electric vehicle sharing programs.
Seattle would not be new territory for Lime. The company already operates a large fleet of electric bicycles in the city. Lime’s scooters are not legal in Seattle though, as the city has not yet permitted scooter sharing companies to operate there. There is no word yet on if the city has approved Lime’s application for their electric car sharing plan.
Lime’s new car sharing service would compete not just with Uber and Lyft, but also with other companies already operating in Seattle such as Car2Go and ReachNow.
This news comes on the heels of a number of recent announcements by Lime. The company just unveiled their new model of electric scooter and instituted a carbon neutral program.
Electrek’s Take
This is fascinating. The tech-mobility companies are duking it out for your transportation dollars. Just look at what has happened over the last few years:
Uber rolled out ride-sharing.
Lyft copied Uber.
Bird created electric scooter sharing.
Lime copied Bird.
A dozen other companies copied both of them.
ZipCar wanted in on bicycle sharing so they added rentable bikes as well.
Uber wanted in on the e-bike and e-scooter sharing action so they bought Jump.
Lyft copied them and rolled out their own electric scooter sharing.
Lime didn’t like the ride-sharing companies horning in on scooters, so now they’re horning in on cars with their own Lime electric cars.
And on it goes. Where does it stop? Nobody knows!
Frankly, I find this hilarious. But it’s also awesome for commuters. As these companies continue to compete, they are forced to innovate. That means they’ll keep making it cheaper, easier and greener for commuters to get around.
Plus, how many of you would love the chance to test drive an electric vehicle? Well, why not just Lime an EV for a few minutes? Sounds great to me! The more people trying EVs, the more people who will be convinced to buy EVs.
And even for those that don’t want to buy, having a rental option is another great way to reduce emissions. Plus, it means less waste, as cars aren’t sitting in garages and parking spots for 23 hours a day. By sharing cars, we can produce fewer of them.
What are the downsides? Surely there’s something, but I’m just too excited by this news to think of any! Let me know what you think in the comments below.
Grow Salad Greens All Winter For Less Than 20 Dollars
Charging Electric Cars with Solar Power
"SolarEdge is one of the unsung heroes of the solar industry, and this new technology is nothing short of a game-changer.'
https://www.civicsolar.com/support/installer/articles/charging-electric-cars-solar-power
"Owning an electric car that is charged by a solar power system is an excellent way to ensure your transportation is both cost-efficient and emissions-free. As electric vehicles (EVs) continue to shift market share away from traditional internal combustion engines, the world will see an increased demand for the rapid and efficient charging of lithium-ion batteries. As the opportunity to seamlessly integrate the EV charging process with residential solar grows, SolarEdge’s new inverter-integrated EV charger promises to offer a more efficient, less expensive, and environmentally-friendly method of powering homes and cars."
SolarEdge's EV charging single phase inverter offers homeowners the ability to charge electric vehicles up to six times faster than a standard Level 1 charger through an innovative solar boost mode that utilizes grid and PV charging simultaneously. This product is the world's first EV charger with an integrated PV inverter.
============================================================
https://news.energysage.com/solaredge-ev-charger-an-integrated-electric-car-charger-solar-inverter-for-your-home/
SolarEdge EV charger – an integrated electric car charger & solar inverter for your home
Reducing the hassle of installing separately a standalone EV charger and a PV inverter, the EV charging inverter eliminates the need for additional wiring, conduit and a breaker installation. By installing an EV charger that is integrated with an inverter, no additional dedicated circuit breaker is needed, saving space and ruling out a potential upgrade to the main distribution panel.
Whether you own an EV now or just want to be EV-ready, future-proof your home with SolarEdge.
https://www.solaredge.com/us/products/ev-charger#/
=================================================================
While installing solar can save you money on your electric bill and reduce your carbon emissions, homeowners are going even further and using solar electricity to charge their electric car. Thanks to an innovative new product from SolarEdge, powering your car with solar electricity is easier than ever.
SolarEdge is the most popular inverter manufacturer on the EnergySage Solar Marketplace – in the second half of 2017, two out of every three quotes offered to solar shoppers on EnergySage included SolarEdge products. Their newest innovation is the EV Charging Single Phase Inverter, which integrates a charger for your electric car directly into your solar panel system.
According to Lior Handelsman, VP of Marketing & Product Strategy and Founder of SolarEdge, “SolarEdge’s EV charging inverter is really the first product that represents the paradigm shift that has occurred in solar over the last decade… We are very excited to launch the world’s first inverter that can charge a car from the sun.”
Why choose an integrated inverter & charger option, rather than installing them separately?
When you install an integrated EV charging inverter, you’ll save money in the long term by reducing your equipment costs and installation costs. SolarEdge’s EV charging inverter does come at a slight price premium – if you want to install one as part of your solar panel system, you can expect to pay a few hundred dollars extra. But, these added costs are still lower than installing a separate charger later on. For example, a standalone level 2 charging station can run you $500-700, plus another $500 for an electrician to install it, bring its costs over $1000. Plus, installing an integrated EV-charging inverter eliminates the need for installing additional wiring, conduits and a breaker down the line.
Cost savings are important, but there’s another big benefit for SolarEdge: faster charging for your car. “The first-of-its-kind EV-charging PV inverter provides faster charging, thanks to its solar boost mode,” said Handelsman. “…More power is delivered to the car by tapping power from the solar inverter in addition to pulling power from the grid.” According to SolarEdge, this can result in charging speeds that are as much as six times faster than a level 1 charging station plugged into a standard wall outlet.
Having a single integrated product means that you can monitor and manage your solar panels and your electric car charging simultaneously, directly from your phone. SolarEdge’s software can track your EV’s power usage separately from your solar production, and you can control your charging remotely.
If you own an EV, or are thinking about buying one, you’re an ideal candidate for the EV charging inverter
If you have an electric car or are about to buy one, the benefits are clear. But even if you don’t currently own an EV, there’s always the chance that you’ll buy one in a few years. An estimated 1 in 10 new cars sold will be electric by 2025, and solar PV system owners are more likely to purchase electric vehicles than the general population.
“Anyone going solar should think about adding EV charging,” said Handelsman. “If you don’t have an EV now, you will almost certainly have one over the 20+ year lifespan of your solar energy system, so investing now and saving on purchase and installation costs makes sense.”
The EV charging inverter is also an easy way to install a second charger at your home in case you decide that your next car will be an EV. According to Handelsman, “Most homeowners may not realize that an integrated EV charger may be the only way to add a second charger for a second EV without a very expensive upgrade of the home’s main electricity panel.”
Already gone solar? You can retrofit your solar panel system with an EV charging inverter
If you already have a solar panel system, but need to replace your existing inverter, you can easily upgrade to SolarEdge’s EV charging option – the installation process is the same as installing a standard inverter. An added bonus: if your inverter is in need of replacement, upgrading to a SolarEdge option may boost your electricity output thanks to improved efficiency.
https://news.energysage.com/solaredge-ev-charger-an-integrated-electric-car-charger-solar-inverter-for-your-home/
Nemaska: A Lithium Bargain By Debra Fiakas CFA - October 29, 2018
http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2018/10/nemaska-a-lithium-bargain/
"Nemaska shares have not tracked the company’s success in developing proprietary technology and securing financing to meet customer commitments. The shares still trade below a dollar – in either US or Canadian terms – and trade near the 52-week low price. True enough the company has taken on new debt and full commercial scale production is still at least a year away. Every investor under the sun knows high volume production can differ dramatically from pilot plant performance. Yet the current valuation of 1.0 times book value seems unnecessarily conservative given the time-to-commercial shipments and prime off-take and tolling agreements with lithium battery market leaders."
The Race Towards 100 Million EVs Per Year:
World’s 10 Biggest Automakers & Their EV Plans
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/29/worlds-10-biggest-automakers-their-ev-plans/
October 29th, 2018 by Zachary Shahan
Tesla has busted open the mainstream electric vehicle market. The problem is, approximately 17 million passenger vehicles are sold per year in the USA, the number globally is around 100 million, and there’s no way in the netherworld Tesla could produce 17–100 million cars per year on its own by 2030.
Even if Tesla rises to 10 million vehicles a year at some point in the next 10+ years, that could leave 90 million vehicles per year that other automakers need to electrify.
We need a rapid shift to electric cars (and other clean technologies) or we’re massively screwed. So, the message is clear: we need large automakers to follow Tesla’s lead.
Nemaska Sprints to Early Lead In Lithium Mining Race
By Debra Fiakas CFA - October 28, 2018
http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2018/10/nemaska-sprints-to-early-lead-in-lithium-mining-race/
A perfect no cost incentive for EV buyers!:Legal Speeding!
A new initiative from the Austrian government is set to reward electric car owners with a unique incentive. On October 25, the Austrian ministerial cabinet announced that it would be adjusting the speed restrictions for electric vehicles traveling in the country’s IG-L-Hundred zone, which covers a total area of 440 kilometers (273 miles). With the updated rules in place, owners of Teslas and other electric vehicles will be allowed to travel up to 130 km/h (80 mph) on the highway, 30 km/h (20 mph) faster than their fossil fuel-powered counterparts.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-electric-vehicle-higher-speed-limit-incentive-austria/
Some lithium prices are near all-time highs despite oversupply fears: analyst
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/some-lithium-prices-are-near-all-time-highs-despite-oversupply-fears-analyst/
18 hours ago | Reuben Adams
Despite bearish headlines about oversupply fears, lithium prices are increasing in many cases, according to new Roskill analysis.
“Lithium prices have shown a mixture of trends in 2018, depending on which price set you look at,” said Jose Lazuen, who’s responsible for Roskill’s electric vehicle, battery and downstream supply chain market analysis.
“While Chinese ‘spot’ or ‘internal’ prices for lithium carbonate have fallen back dramatically, they represent only a small portion of total lithium carbonate purchases,” Mr Lazuen told Stockhead.
“[Contracted carbonate prices] have been steadily increasing throughout 2018 and actually exceeded the China spot price for the first time in [the September quarter of] 2018.”
Most lithium — processed or not — is traded in long-term contracts between major producers and consumers, says Mr Lazuen.
It is rare to buy and sell lithium on the open market.
Roskill expects prices to increase steadily as contracts are renegotiated between major suppliers and consumers.
Western Australian lithium producer Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) agreed that domestic prices in China did not correlate with the overseas market conditions — with “rest of the world contract prices near to all-time highs”.
meeting manpower needs at Nemaska Lithium (NMX.T)
https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/affaires/le-college-shawinigan-sassocie-a-nemaska-lithium-6ff78e5edcdc657dcf47bb91f3279d41
SHAWINIGAN - A new college certificate called Operation and Control of Chemical Processes will be offered in the winter of 2019 at Shawinigan College. This training is primarily aimed at meeting manpower needs at Nemaska Lithium (NMX.T).
C 'is also the company that approached the college last spring, with this project. "We are based in Shawinigan. We already have a lot of collaboration with CNETE at Shawinigan College, so it was a logical continuation of working with them, knowing that they were flexible, dynamic and could provide a solution to a labor shortage. " says Chantal Francoeur, Vice President Human Resources and Organizational Development at Nemaska Lithium.
"Colleges have this teaching expertise that we do not have. Shawinigan College has expertise in the field of process chemistry, "she says.
"We will start our operation of the commercial plant in the second half of 2020," says Francoeur, just in time for the end of the training of the new cohort, "and we are looking for people who have training in industrial mechanics , instrumentation, operation of chemical processes "and other uses of the genre, she says. In total, 125 employees are being sought to fill the needs.
The construction of the future commercial plant is on schedule, she says.
Nemaska Lithium is looking for specialized workers, particularly chemical process and operation technicians for itself and three other companies, Olin Chlor Alkali, Cepsa Bécancour and Arkema Bécancour.
The College then proposed to make changes to the existing program, as it has already been developed for Cégep de Sherbrooke. This will make it possible to start the cohort more quickly.
The College was ready to deal with this kind of request. The Executive Director, Éric Milette, explains that in his 2017-2020 strategic plan, Shawinigan College "has set itself the goal of aligning the service offer of continuing education with the needs of the region," he says. .
"Currently, like many companies, the big challenge is the skilled workforce. On a regular basis, human resources services must involve professionals outside the region, the province and even the country. We want to train and keep people in Mauricie, "he says.
According to Ms. Francoeur, the attestation of college studies in chemical process control operations "will become a flagship program in Mauricie and we believe that over the next few years, it will attract several cohorts of new talents who will be perfectly equipped to come and work with us at Nemaska Lithium. "
The program has 108 hours of upgrades and 990 hours of classes, including a 300-hour course spread over 10 months, totaling 1098 hours. This training will be offered full-time from January 28, 2019 at a rate of 25 to 30 hours per week.
Interested persons must have a high school diploma. To register, contact the Shawinigan College Continuing Education Department at 819-539-6401 ext. 2263.
The training includes courses in chemistry, mechanics, electrical engineering and electrochemistry.
Graduates can expect a salary of $ 70,000 per year upon entry as well as favorable working conditions. "We will have to work for recruitment," still plans Chantal Francoeur who has no fear, however, the success of this project. "These are still interesting jobs. It's a short-term, one-year course that leads to very well-paid, well-organized jobs, "she says. "There may be people who have dropped out of school or who have studied and would like to reposition themselves. I think that there is a pool still interesting enough for this type of training, "she says.
Ms. Francoeur recalls that in light of experiences elsewhere in Quebec, candidates should not fear the idea of moving to the Shawinigan region to fill such positions, because they are "certain of having a very good job. interesting, well paid and in interesting conditions too, "she argues.
According to "Global Electric Three-Wheeler Market By Vehicle Type, By Battery Capacity, By Battery Type, By Region, Competition Forecast & Opportunities, 2013-2023" electric three-wheeler market is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 19% by 2023 on account of rising air pollution levels across the globe and inclination of users towards cleaner automobiles.Moreover, increasing support from various governments and their initiatives to evolve the automobile industry into a more cleaner industry is further anticipated to positively influence the global electric three-wheeler market during the forecast period.
Additionally, growing affordability of electric three-wheelers is further anticipated to fuel their demand in the coming years. Some of the major players operating in the global electric three-wheeler market include Lohia Auto Industries, Kinetic Green Energy & Power Solutions Ltd., Terra Motors India Corp., Clean Motion, Hero Electric Vehicles Pvt Ltd, and Saera Electric Auto Pvt. Ltd. All these companies are well assisted by their key development teams and are supported by their strong network across the globe.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-electric-three-wheeler-market---competition-forecast--opportunities-2013-2023-300691159.html
The electric-vehicle future will run on two wheels: Adam Minter
Bloomberg News | Oct. 14, 2018
Today there are 200 million them, with 30 million more added every year.
In 2023, global sales of such e-bikes are forecast to reach approximately 40 million units https://www.statista.com/statistics/255653/worldwide-sales-of-electric-bicycles/
This statistic represents the projected sales of electric bicycles with pedal support of up to 25 kilometers per hour worldwide in 2014 and 2023. In 2023, global sales of such e-bikes are forecast to reach approximately 40 million units. China is expected to remain the most important market for electric bikes worldwide, as 34.3 million units are predicted to be sold here.
This statistic represents global sales of electricity-powered two-wheelers between 2016 and 2024. It is predicted that around 55 million electric motorcycles and scooters will be sold globally by 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/445004/worldwide-sales-of-electricity-powered-two-wheelers/
http://www.mining.com/web/electric-vehicle-future-will-run-two-wheels-adam-minter/
Given recent market turmoil, it would easy to overlook the upcoming IPO of Niu Technologies, a Chinese manufacturer of electric mopeds. The $95 million the company plans to raise is a pittance compared to the billions burnt by Tesla Inc. But, the technologies developed by Niu and other pioneers of electric two-wheel vehicles will transform transportation as much as anything dreamed up by the likes of Elon Musk.
Until recently, electric motorcycles and scooters received far less global attention than electric cars. That’s beginning to change, especially in India, where two-wheelers — predominantly motorcycles — account for 76 percent of vehicles on the roads and a whopping 30 percent of the country's pollution. In Southeast Asia's biggest economies, the number of households that own two-wheelers exceeds 80 percent. Cleaning up the region’s air means reducing emissions from two-wheelers.
Electric cars, even cheap ones, won't solve the problem. Cost is the first and tallest barrier. In India, a new, entry-level commuter motorcycle can cost less than $500 (and, on the secondhand market, far less). Traffic is the next burden. In the megacities of emerging Asia, jams are notoriously bad and getting worse. In Mumbai, the average speed of city buses has declined from 10 miles per hour to 5.5 miles per hour over the last decade. Little wonder that even commuters who can afford a car often look to bikes and scooters to get around.
For similar reasons, the region's booming e-commerce industry heavily relies upon two-wheeled transport for deliveries. Finally, there’s the matter of parking. Beijing is home to approximately twice as many cars as parking spaces — a ratio that’s likely to grow. The problem is common throughout the developing world and made worse by spiraling real estate costs, especially in the central parts of cities.
The good news is that Asia's emerging middle class seems open to the idea of e-scooters if the price is right and charging is convenient. In China, low-speed electric bicycles powered by bulky lead-acid batteries have replaced many traditional motorcycles and scooters, especially given more stringent emissions rules. They're cheap, and — unlike electric cars — the batteries can be charged at home or at the office. Today there are 200 million them, with 30 million more added every year.
It took more than seven years for automakers to sell 4 million passenger electric vehicles. It’ll take about six months to sell the next million.
http://www.mining.com/web/boom-ev-batteries-helps-suppliers-older-fords-model-t/
Boom in EV batteries helps suppliers older than Ford’s Model T
Bloomberg News
That surging demand is transforming the lithium-ion battery business, with more power packs expected to be installed in EVs this year than in consumer electronics, according to Bloomberg NEF. China, where subsidy-toting drivers own a third of the world’s passenger EVs, is doing the most to fuel the boom.
The market value of batteries used in electric cars, electric buses and related energy storage should multiply by about 10 times to a potential $500 billion by 2050, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. research. Many of the biggest battery producers aren’t benefiting now because they’re spending billions of dollars to add manufacturing capacity and form global partnerships with automakers. Down the line, though, the trend changes.
A Bloomberg News analysis of about 80 companies in the lithium-ion battery business shows the technology’s ascent rippling through a global web and boosting providers of raw materials and components—suppliers that, in several cases, predate the 1908 introduction of Ford Motor Co.’s Model T.
“Everyone has to increase scale in everything: from the mines to the chemicals, to the battery makers,” said Sam Jaffe, managing director at Boulder, Colorado-based Cairn Energy Research Advisors, an industry consultant.
The beneficiaries include Belgium’s Umicore SA, which started in 1805 as a zinc miner and evolved into a chemicals-to-electronics powerhouse that is outpacing the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index this year. Japan’s Asahi Kasei Corp., which traces its origins to 1922 as a maker of rayon, dominates the market for the separators that allow an electric current to pass through the battery; shares are outperforming the Topix index. In the U.S., industrial linchpin DowDuPont Inc. already sent its products to Mars inside a NASA rover and is now gaining sales by focusing on lubricants, adhesives and plastics that boost the performance of EV batteries.
Companies in the sector have the potential to capitalize on huge gains in demand during the next two decades, according to BlackRock Inc., which manages about $6 trillion in assets. The New York-based manager last month opened a fund focusing on those companies poised to benefit from the shift to electric and autonomous vehicles, including raw-materials suppliers, component makers and technology providers.
Still, there are long-term risks that parts of the supply chain will be commoditized, denting the prospects for returns, said Tom King, chief investment officer at Sydney-based Nanuk Asset Management Pty., which holds battery-sector shares, including Asahi Kasei and Panasonic Corp., a supplier to Tesla Inc. Margins are being squeezed as cell manufacturers lower prices to build market share ahead of the expected boom.
Lithium-ion battery prices are forecast to fall by about half through the mid-2020s, according to BNEF. Yet that may not be so bad, since it’ll help most passenger EVs achieve cost parity with combustion-engine models by 2030, making the choice between the two a little easier for buyers.
Here’s a more detailed look at some beneficiaries in the EV battery supply chain, listed alphabetically:
Asahi Kasei Corp.
A researcher at Asahi Kasei Corp.’s laboratory south of Tokyo is credited as one of the inventors of the lithium-ion battery in the 1980s. More than three decades later, it’s an innovation that’s still helping the company find new sources of revenue.
The manufacturer of a sprawling range of products—from medicines to fabrics—dominates the market for separators, the component that keeps the current flowing between a battery’s cathode and anode. Work on separator technology started even earlier: in the 1970s, said Akira Fukuda, a senior managing executive.
“It remained an obscure product for more than 10 years,” he said.
That changed with the arrival of rechargeable batteries, and then demand skyrocketed with the proliferation of consumer electronics such as camcorders, portable music players and smartphones.
The arrival of EVs promises a more dramatic reshaping of the market, prompting Asahi Kasei to consider expansions in Europe and China and to seek almost a doubling of its output by 2020. “There is still room for growth for parts makers,” Fukuda said.
Investors are adding the company and competitor Toray Industries Inc., betting they’ll prosper as vehicle fleets electrify. “The EV-related business offers the prospect of stable growth,” said Yukihiko Fukunaga, an analyst at Tachibana Securities Co. in Tokyo.
That’s happening all over the chassis. Asahi Kasei is producing materials that will help make EVs lighter and more efficient, and it’s developing a raft of new technologies such as sensors to track a driver’s vital signs.
About 30 innovations are being showcased in a concept sports car called the AKXY that has been displayed publicly. The company also is making acquisitions in the auto sector, including this year’s $700 million purchase of Sage Automotive Interiors Inc., based in Greenville, South Carolina.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd
China’s push for cleaner air and fewer oil imports helped Fujian-based Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd., or CATL, become the biggest electric-car battery maker in the world within a decade of opening its doors.
Founder Zeng Yuqun is an engineer who spent most of his career working on lithium-ion batteries for consumer electronics.
The company’s rapid rise has a lot to do with China’s generous government incentives for drivers buying non-gasoline vehicles. Carmakers seeking inclusion in the subsidy program are choosing domestic battery suppliers because of concerns that models built with foreign brands under their chassis will be declared ineligible.
It also has to thank BMW AG, which first chose CATL to develop batteries for its EVs in China, helping establish a high bar for quality and technology. CATL held an initial public offering in Shenzhen in June, and shares vaulted 44 percent the first day.
CATL is using the IPO proceeds to help build a 24 gigawatt-hour factory near its headquarters. It’s also partnering with SAIC Motor Corp. on a 36 gigawatt-hour plant in Jiangsu province.
“For investors looking for pure-play battery companies, CATL is a good choice,” said Mark Newman, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein in Hong Kong. “Every other battery company has some other business division.”
The company declined requests for an interview. During the company’s IPO roadshow, a potential investor asked Zeng where his focus was. He replied: “First, technology; second, technology; and third, still technology.”
The company isn’t content to stay in China, with Zeng saying globalization is key for its next growth phase. CATL plans to establish a manufacturing site in Germany after securing a $4.7 billion deal from BMW to buy battery cells. It also has sales offices in the U.S. and Japan.
“CATL is extremely well-positioned because they are the national champion of China,” Newman said. “China will not let the Koreans and Japanese dominate the world in batteries.”
NASA
While its products helped NASA explore the surface of the red planet, the U.S. chemical giant also is generating revenue from Earth-bound vehicles and readying for a major opportunity as hybrid and electric fleets expand.
Sales are growing at a “double-digit” rate, said Eugenio Toccalino, global marketing director for the transportation and advanced polymers business, and DowDuPont forecasts the EV sector to grow “exponentially” during the next decade. The conglomerate is focusing on products that can help boost vehicle battery performance, reduce weight and lower costs.
An innovation center that opened last month in Silicon Valley is seeking to deepen ties in the sector and showcase technologies suitable for electric, hybrid or autonomous vehicles. Injection-molded plastics can be an alternative to metal casings and help lower the overall weight of batteries, as can deploying industrial adhesives to seal packs together. Sheets of film can act as flame barriers inside batteries to improve safety, while Kevlar fibers—a material used in body armor—can be added as a shield to protect the components from the impact of collisions.
“We have solutions that enable those batteries to be lighter, to be more durable, to be higher performance,” Toccalino said.
The DuPont family’s ties to the auto industry date back more than a century and include the production of DuPont-branded cars and a decades-long company investment in General Motors Co. Both Dow and DuPont exited businesses producing battery components, including electrolytes and battery separators, prior to their merger, seeking to focus on “enabling technologies,” Toccalino said. Dow in 2013 sold its stake in a venture manufacturing lithium-ion packs, including in the U.S. Toccalino’s unit will be part of the new DuPont when it returns to being an independent company next year, as the current merged entity splits into three, smaller firms.
Umicore SA
Belgium’s Umicore SA is the standout performer in cathodes, the mission-critical chemical compounds that determine how far EVs can travel between charges.
The company is reaping the rewards after betting hundreds of millions of euros on battery materials and EVs as the technology began to evolve. A long-time supplier of catalysts used to cut pollution from diesel exhausts, Umicore’s biggest profit driver is now battery materials, where earnings almost doubled in the first half of this year.
By 2020, Umicore is expected to account for about 40 percent of the total profit generated in the battery-materials industry—300 million euros out of a predicted 760 million euros, said Adam Collins, an analyst at Liberum. By 2025, that share should increase to an estimated 800 million euros out of a total 1.3 billion euros.
“It’s not only about the product you deliver, it's also about your process technology: to have the ability to scale up fast, massively and cost-efficiently,” Chief Executive Officer Marc Grynberg said in an email. The company says it supplies “almost all” global manufacturers of cells approved for cars.
Umicore started as a zinc-and-nickel refiner in 1805 when Napoleon Bonaparte awarded mining rights in what became modern Belgium. It has a more than 100-year heritage in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and in recycling and refining products containing cobalt—now a key ingredient in EV batteries. Its materials are in one of every five lithium-ion batteries ever made for portable electronics, including Sony Corp.’s Walkman, the company said.
Faced with Asia’s dominance in batteries and Tesla’s advances in the U.S., Volkswagen AG is among the automakers calling for European companies to help establish a local battery industry for their own EVs. Umicore could be in the pole position to spearhead any such project after announcing spending of as much as 1.2 billion euros by 2020.
Vale SA
Already the world’s largest producer of nickel while also boasting significant high-purity reserves, few if any miners stand to gain more from EV demand than Brazil’s Vale SA. And if customers start lining up soon enough, that may help save the company’s struggling South Pacific mine.
Vale has said it expects the EV revolution to boost battery market nickel demand to as much as 700,000 tons in 2025, from just 36,000 tons this year.
When Chief Executive Officer Fabio Schvartsman took over last year, he lamented how poorly the base metals division, particularly nickel, was performing. Vale’s New Caledonia nickel mine stood out as the clear loser, and he threatened to shutter it.
Then the market shifted, nickel and cobalt prices rose, and the possibility that New Caledonia’s high-quality ore might someday fetch premium prices caused Schvartsman to soften. Vale also spoke with Chinese customers focused on electric-car production, and a new outlook formed.
“The EV industry and the transition away from internal-combustion engine vehicles are very important for China,” Vale said in an email. “The state is fully supportive, and the various Chinese players are committed and driven.”
Vale already generates billions of dollars selling high-grade iron ore to China, the world’s largest steelmaker. If that country continues to promote EVs, the Brazilian miner could reap similar rewards.
Nickel prices have been falling since reaching almost $16,000 a ton in June. That is sour news for any producer, but Vale says it suffers even more when selling its high-quality ore to stainless-steel customers satisfied with lower-quality material. However, battery production requires a higher purity product, and the Rio de Janeiro-based miner hopes for a price upheaval mimicking that for iron ore. With nickel units in New Caledonia and Indonesia, the company is geographically aligned to supply a market driven by battery hubs China, South Korea and Japan.
And the future isn’t just nickel. In June, Vale signed a $690 million streaming deal for cobalt that could be a benchmark for automakers and battery makers needing a steady supply to keep EV assembly lines busy.
(By David Stringer, Chisaki Watanabe, Jie Ma, Jack Kaskey, Andrew Noel and R.T. Watson with assistance by Patricia Suzara.)
Resurgence in used EV values over the last six to nine months
https://www.wired.com/story/ode-to-the-dinky-electric-car/
IT'S TIME YOU FELL IN LOVE WITH A SMALL, CHEAP, ELECTRIC CAR
electric cars can be a blast, even when they don't run you six figures or come with a Tesla badge on the hood. My grin, and official times, says they've succeeded.
You can buy a Bolt for $36,620 (before tax credits and other incentives), and Elon Musk promises that the version of the Model 3 that costs $35,000 will arrive soon. You can go cheaper, with a $30,000 Nissan Leaf. But if that's still a bit rich for your taste—and it will be for many—there's good news. You can go even cheaper with a used electric, and still get a usable, practical, fun, car. A few years into the nascent age of EVs, many cars are coming off two- or three-year leases. Plenty are available for under $10,000, and still carry warranties on the batteries and drivetrains. They need less maintenance than a gas car, and charging is cheaper than filling up, especially as gas prices rise.
“There’s a newfound interest in these vehicles, which can be an incredible bargain,” says Eric Ibara, director of residual values at Kelley Blue Book. “From the get go, they haven’t retained their value as well as normal cars, and as a result they’re quite a bargain after three or four years.”
Sure the specs aren't quite up there with a fancy new all-electric, but even if a 0-60 mph time looks slowish on paper (and a lot do now that Tesla has set that bar stratospherically high), most EVs still feel super responsive, with the full torque of the motors available from a standstill. And they handle surprisingly well, because the heavy batteries are often low in the body or built into the floor, lowering the center of gravity. “If you tune your suspension to that, you can have a very rigid platform to build off and provide good dynamic capabilities,” says Burns.
Key to finding the right car is being realistic about the range you need. The Bolt is good for 238 miles, but the older, cheaper EVs tend to post numbers in the double digits. But that may not giving buyers anxiety the way it used to, thanks to better familiarity with EVs in general, and more charging stations, which are easier to use. Four big charging networks—Electrify America, EV Connect, Greenlots, and SemaConnect—have just joined forces for example, to make a network of 12,500 chargers across the US. And if you've got a garage or driveway, you can probably install a charger at home.
An aging, even dinky EV might work just fine.
“I basically do three types of trip,” says Los Angeles resident Randal Miles, who is looking to trade his 2002 VW Jetta for an electric. “The vast majority is my 20 miles round trip commute, and I can do a shorter road trip in any car that has fast charging.” For those rare, super long drives, he can rent a car, and likely still save money versus his current gas bill.
Miles is checking out the BMW i3, which he’s found gently used for $16,000 to $18,000, and the Chevrolet Spark, which has been around for five years, predating the Bolt. It has a relatively tiny battery at 20 kWh, good for just 82 miles. But because the battery is so small, it tops up from a DC fast charger in a mere 20 minutes, so you might have to stop often on a road trip, but not for long. It’s nimble to drive around town, and Miles has found some for sale in the $8,000 range, or one quarter the price of a (not yet available) base Model 3.
A trawl through used listings reveals cheap looking Nissan Leafs, Fiat 500e, VW e-Golfs, Kia Soul EVs, Ford Focus EVs, and more. (If you're wedded to the idea of burning gasoline on occasion, you can snag an old Chevy Volt.)
If you want to join this electric band wagon, though, you may want to act quickly. Ibara’s research shows that other people are catching on to the appeal of the cheap EV. “Over the last six to nine months, we’ve seen a resurgence in used EV values,” he says. That may be because gas prices have been creeping up, and it may not last forever, with a new class of 200-mile plus, electric cars entering the top of the market.
“EVs make my regular car seem so outdated, so old timey,” says Miles. Time to buy into a cut-price version of the future. Just be nicer to your tires than I was to the Chevrolet Bolt's and you should be able to find a car that goes for miles and miles, no muss, no fuss.