Example of Non-Stimulus

When the billions of stimulus dollars were at their height, North Carolina was supposed to have received a decent chunk of change to improve it's highways and bridges.

Soon after the announcement, I and my dad took a trip from the Asheville, NC area to the Outer Banks of NC (great place to visit). Crossing almost the entire breadth of NC (around 500 miles), we only saw one spot of highway where there was a sign saying stimulus money was being used. As I recall, it was a few miles outside Raleigh.

Soon, our former governor raised the state tax to .07 per dollar and cut education drastically. One of her two major reasons was that we had to fix our roads and bridges and the additional tax money was needed.

I agree with Milo3. I think most went directly to the banks and never made it into circulation. In fact, I have heard some say the true effects of inflation have been held at bay a bit due to the money not making it into circulation.

Correct In Many Ways

I do not agree with how the poor and immigrants should be treated, but I do think a lot of what he was saying applies to the United States of America as well.

Who has benefited the most for this crisis in America? Simple answer - the banks. The banks are making off like bandits and there is no Robinhood in this story. When people lose their homes due to losing their jobs, the banks tend to win. When dire need forces people to use credit to survive, and things do not improve, the banks win again. I think I could go on and on here, but I think the point is understood.

I have always wondered one major thing. Why weren't the billions of stimulus dollars given to the middle class and poor in an attempt to jump start the economy? I know giving all of it would have been counterproductive, but giving some of it would have been beneficial.

BTW, anyone who thinks all their money cannot be taken at the drop of a dime while in a bank is mistaken. The Federal Government can do it on a number of things, and have done so to others. Just do a bit of research and learn for yourself.

Then I Need To Get the Susans At My CU

One4theroad,

A teller at my local CU has 600 customer wrapped Susan B's she was wanting to get rid of out their small vault. It might be worth me picking up a few hundred dollars worth and searching for errors.

I primarily do halves and dimes with dimes being quickly searched for silver and halves being searched individually for silver and errors as well. Searching dimes for numismatic value is too time consuming and the number of errors out there for what their value is shifts my interests more to halves.

Speaking of which, I need to search the second box of halves this afternoon for errors. No silver rims on initial search so I am hoping to find a nice doubled die, missing FG, cud, or rotation error.

Nice of E-Bay

SP,

Nice to see that E-Bay gave the free listings. I occasionally get an offer for 50 free listings. Basically, the .50 charge is waived and therefore nothing is at risk if a sale is not made. If I recall correctly, the once offered me a free listing where final value fees were also dropped. It was to get me to use their mobile Apple app which I do have but do not use to list items.

I will drop you a line on some of the numis pieces.

WC

Erosion of The Middle Class

Milo3,

What I am seeing is a quick erosion of the traditional middle class of America. If the government can continue to erode the middle class, I think a time will come when the whole system implodes to some degree. At this point, Socialism becomes much easier to institute in the US.

If you have ever studied Economics in college, you will likely understand the dire importance of a healthy middle class. The middle class creates the most demand for products. They comprise the greater part of the workforce, and they are normally those who start small businesses. Also, if I am correct, they also pay the majority of taxes at both State and Federal levels.

Today, much of the middle class is struggling. Many are unemployed. Many are working two jobs to make what they once made working one job, and many are well underemployed (working at far below their skill level).

Under the new healthcare setup (Obamacare is an oxymoron to me), many will now be forced to buy their own insurance or pay a penalty thus taking more money out of their pockets. Also, most now see less take home pay due to the higher taxes that started taking place in January.

If things do not improve for the middle class, and I do not think they are going to, then what I see is a gradual erosion of what we now consider to be the norm. I feel we will see a time soon when the majority of Americans ask the government to step in and take "care of them." I also see the government doing so at the costs of individual freedoms and independence.

So, if one can, holding gold and silver is not a bad idea. They may be one of the last places to hold wealth than one has any control over.

Alerts Taken - I Will Monitor Mine Carefully

With gold in a small uptrend,and silver as well, I plan on selling some items this week to help cover what I owe the Fed on taxes.

I will have someone outside my residence do a test search and make sure things are visible. If they are not, I will need to read the agreement and figure out what I can do in that situation.

If I knew of another venue with the visibility the E-Bay provides for silver and gold items, I would likely try it out as well.

Has anyone thought about running their own commercial sight?

Same Company - Open Bid Format

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Mexico-1-Oz-Silver-Libertad-Onza-999-Fine-Silver-Coin-SKU27924-/130866344135?pt=Bullion_US&hash=item1e783df0c7

Point Out Positive Feedbacks

SilverEagle,

If they person budges, you may point out your feedback record to help sway them a bit.

I have started to think about searching for war nickels as part of my CRH hobby. In addition to silver war nickels, there are other numismatic dates and errors to search for as well.

White's Metal Detector Now Ready

The problem of the old battery that came with my White's Eagle Spectrum has now been solved. I ordered a C-battery hold that White's offers which allows the use of four C-batteries to replace the original battery pack.

I now have it installed, and it works just fine. Plan on ordering some rechargeable C-batteries online to cut down on their costs. The Energizers run around $5 a piece at the local Walmart Supercenters.

Now, to drop some test gold and silver in the ground and learn the sounds, settings, and the like. It is about to be Spring and I want to get some time on the ground with the detector.

Sometimes Straight PayPal Is Better

It is possible to sell and accept items via PayPal. The buyer must trust you enough to send the money and waive the buyer's protection E-Bay tends to provide.

Granted, most buyers may hesitate on this seeing how it costs them no extra to buy it through E-Bay. Yet, if you and the buyer have some degree of trust doing the PayPal option can save you around 10% of the sellers fees. PayPal option will run around 3% and normally be paid by the seller. Also, the transaction has the option of being noted as a purchase.

I am not sure if many sellers of gold and silver items do this, but it is something to consider if you and the buyer have some degree of trust.

Selling Some Gold This Upcoming Week

I plan on selling some decent gold pieces this upcoming week to help pay for the $3000+ tax bill I now officially owe. My friend at HR Block crunched the numbers, and they were actually somewhat lower than first anticipated (thank the Lord).

Personally, selling now makes the most sense for me. I need the Fiat to pay the Fed and NC State, and I am a bit concerned about continuing downside pressure on the PMs.

MILO, I will read Sinclair's article. I have heard a lot about his expertise and would like to see his reasoning on calling a relative bottom in gold.

BTW, I will try and make sure to reference my listings here seeing how they are gold and therefore relevant.

Was Surprised by PM Rise - At Least at First

I first heard that the jobs report was quite positive. I immediately thought this would lead to a major sell-off in the PMs today. Then, around 10:00 a.m., I finally looked at the prices and they were up. I was a bit surprised.

I was surprised until I read the real breakdown of the positive numbers. Around 100,000 have simply given up searching. Full-time jobs are still on the decline. Most added jobs were part-time, and a record number of people are now working two jobs.

After reading this, I understood there was really nothing present to hurt the metals short of normal actions which normally follow such announcements.

There was a bit of good news for me though. My taxes, both State and Federal, are about $1500 less than I was anticipating. Less owed taxes is a good thing when money is tight.

Must Consider PMs Could Crash

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4551/forewarned-forearmed

Interesting post today by the Turd. Personally, I am inclined to think more downward pressure in the PMs may be on hand. Also, if a typical Spring rally is being anticipated, it may be met by the Cartel with even more aggressive manipulation tactics.

After I get my taxes done tomorrow, and know the staggering amount I think I may owe, I plan on finally selling some of my gold. In fact, I may liquidate the majority and just keep a few pieces I have personal interest in.

Yes In Gold Festival

SP,

There was an in depth story done on the Gold Festival done up in a local publication about a year ago.

Quite interesting to say the least I may go this year seeing how it is pretty much in my backyard.

You've Just Described Socialism

Wer123,

I think you have just described Socialism to a great degree. It is more the overall needs of the many than the individual liberties and needs of the one.

I would like to think there could be a happier medium than extreme capitalism and extreme socialism, and maybe there is. I just do not think it is happening in the United States.

By the way, I was just saying today that Obama could actually run for a third term. Granted, he would have to run for Canadian Prime Minister but I think they would accept a Socialist from the US. Wonder how that would effect PM prices. Probably not much.

Convenient That Gas and Groceries Do Not Count

Wer123,

Isn't it convenient that the price of gas and the price of groceries are not included in the official inflation equation. Cokes and kerosene and skyrocket in price, but that is not bad nor is it an indicator of inflation.

They Would Have Some Believe So

I would say the bull market has slowed, and I do feel that other investments doing so well at this point will continue to have downside pressure on gold and silver.

I find that most investors seem to be interested in what is hot now and not later. They do not seem to be interested in the fundamentals of gold and silver or the "end of civilization as we know it" crowd either.

I guess they feel they will have enough time to avoid any market collapse of that the Fed will jump in and prevent any major crashes. Seeing what the current administration has done to date, they would have some ample grounds to have this viewpoint.

Personally, I think downside pressure will continue with an event here or there to force a short squeeze thus allowing the Cartel to make their money from the speculative shorts. Long term, I think something will happen to change the picture though. Personally, I am not selling at this point in time.

This being said, I have an appointment for taxes tomorrow with a friend of mine at HR Block. I have an idea already I will owe in the thousands and may liquidate some of my better pieces to help pay this bill.

Great Coins Here SP

SP,

Received the French 2 Francs pieces today. Excellent coins there and the patina on the 1918s is very nice. I couldn't be happier with my purchase of these silver coins.

Does anyone else here look at early, foreign coins as investments? I know the old rule is that American tend to collect American, Canadians tend to collect Canadian, and the like. Yet, I think some really great coins can be overlooked if you do not explore the option of foreign coins.

ALSO, anyone who may be reading here and questioning if they should by from StinkyPinky should not have any hesitation. The coins I received are of the highest quality and the prices were very fair. I would highly recommend looking at his offerings.

BIN Is My Preferred Method

One4theroad,

I have had a few situations like yours. For most of my auctions, I use the BIN with immediate payment due upon bid confirmation option.

I am not a big fan of auctions with a hidden reserve. I feel they are counterproductive in most situations. If I see something I am interested in buying, and there is a hidden reserve, I simply tend to move on. If a seller has a reserve, they should start the auction at that amount and then allow for additional bidding to take place.

Also, you can clear more money on BIN auctions. For lower priced silver coins, open bid is probably better but for higher priced numismatic coins I would think about BIN.

Had To Bid On The 1939-D Walker

One4theroad,

Put in a small bid on the 1939-D Walker you have. It looks to be in really decent condition. Others may want to look at this one as well.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1939-D-Walking-Liberty-Half-Dollar-/271165798775?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item3f22bdb977&autorefresh=true

As for your non-paying bidder, sorry to hear about that. I hope it turns out to be something simple like they were on vacation or the like.

Creating Spreadsheet For Coin Roll Hunting

I am planning on creating a custom spreadsheet for coin roll hunting that will incorporate the current spot value of silver coins and allow the manual entry of the numismatic value of error coins.

I have some ideas as to needed fields such as box searched, date searched, etc. but know it will be an evolving project. Hey, maybe when I am done I can sell it on E-Bay and purchase silver with the proceeds. :)

More likely, will share it with others in hopes of improving upon it as time goes on.

I have two more boxes of halves coming this week and it would be a good time to start using a basic version for finds. Also, I will hopefully have a new C-Battery pack module for my White's metal detector on Monday. This could add up to a decent week.

Hard Call For Me Personally on PM Direction

If I were to be optimistic, I would see these low levels as a logical bottom to this correction. Yet, I am not an optimist by nature when it comes to such things; I try to be a realist.

I am reading mixed view points. Some are calling for gold to be around $1450 by July while others are saying this is a bottom with the next move being a huge swing up. As usual, I guess the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Personally, I see the likelihood of some downside pressure in PMs continuing for a bit longer. As for a bottom, I know better than to even attempt to call one. If I could do that, I would be trading paper.

I feel at best we are likely to be range bound on gold between $1550 and $1600 for a while. As for silver, I think $27 as a low and $30 as a high is about what I would also be looking at.

1.75 Million Soon

Interesting story about the hidden treasure. If gold continues to drop, the $2 million will likely be $1.75 million or the like. Anyway, I would like to be the one to find the treasure.

Would almost bet the treasure is in a symbolic area. Artisans almost have to follow their instinct on things like this.

Last night I was able to go through a box of half dollars. I found one 1966 silver, three "S" proof coins, and two NIFCs. Not bad for one box. Still looking for my first 1970-S silver proof. Shots of finding one are very low, but a member over at coincommunity.com just reported finding one.

Interesting Article

SilverSurfer,

I like the Zerohedge article you referenced. Quite interesting, and I think there to be some truth to it as well.

Seems like the whole world is antsy and too interlinked. When the engine goes off the track most cars will follow.

Finding A Source Is An Issue

Yes, I was doing up to $2000 a week at one time. One of my banks would order two boxes of half dollars and I would process through them. I ordered from one bank, and then deposited the coins into some branches of my local Credit Union.

Finding a bank, or institution, to order them for you can be challenging depending on what part of the country you live in.
Also, I think how much money you have in your accounts can also have a bearing on it.

This said, asking tellers for any loose half dollars they have is always an option. You will likely get mixed responses, but asking correctly at enough banks can pay off. Also, getting rolls of dimes is quite a bit easier and you are more likely to find silver dimes than silver half dollars.

Not as many people have searched the dimes, IMO, and there were a lot more silver dimes produced than silver half dollar. Quarters are probably the least productive IMO.

Searching Rolled Coins for Silver – And Nice Hobby

For those who may not know, I like to search rolled coins for silver and collectible pieces. Half dollars are my preferred medium with dimes being my second.

Today, one of my banks agreed to order me two boxes of half dollars next week. This is $1000 in half dollars for a total of 2000 actual coins. When I was able to search before, I found proof coins, error coins, a magician coin or so, and silver coins.

I am looking forward to being able to search again. For those who may do this as well, or who are interested, just let me know and I can offer some tips and pointers on a great hobby.

I Have Had To File Those As Well

SP,

I have filed a non-payment complaint with E-Bay before. If I recall correctly, I have done it twice to date.

I am still the high bidder on one of your coins and have a hidden high bid waiting just in case someone ups the ante. Nothing like nice, silver coins to collect and cherish.

Numismatic and PM value all in one. Hard to beat that.

Could It Be To Lower Value in China?

Just a thought of whether there could be more to this than JPM covering it's short position or the Obama administration pumping up equities to continue their "all is wonderful" charade.

With China, and other countries, buying so much physical gold could such moves be an attempt to lower their power in some way? Could the US and London based manipulators really think that lowering the paper price actually lowers the value of the tons of gold these countries are accumulating?

If so, it is quite foolish. I think the lower they drive it the more these countries just gobble up more physical. If the other countries really are seeing an end to the power of the US dollar as the standard for international settlement, and they are accumulating gold to back their new version, I only see such moves as today hurting the US and it's citizens.

Problems With E-Bay On Low Metals....

SP,

Sorry to hear about the threat from the buyer of the 4 ounce round. Likely he / she bid on it and then got cold feet when silver took it's nose dive today. Sadly, E-Bay has a tendency to vie on the side of the buyer if they are in the right or not.

As for the German, I do not have experience on how to handle an item's not received claim in Germany. Did you use Fed-Ex, UPS, or possibly RPS where there is a signature confirmation required?

I know it likely costs me bids, but I do not do any international shipping or deliveries to PO boxes or APOs. Just heard too many negative stories. I do ship to US territories seeing how they have the same assurance as any state (at least the last time I checked).

Hopefully, things will get better for you. I hope the drop does not hurt your sells and that you do not experience any more bidders making threats.

Fed Has Killed PMs

Just have to know that fundamentals are not driving the market. Perception and sentiment are just too much in control.

Gold at $1580ish and silver at $28.50ish says it all. Really, with taxes coming due, I probably should have sold some sterling. My limited gold pieces will really not be effected that much even at these prices.

Time to troll for Morgans.

Reversal of Sentiment Approach - Maybe Just Me

Just a question I would like to ask here. Do any of you tend to look at the overall sentiment being pumped by the media and play the opposite angle?

It seems more and more articles are painting a negative picture of the PMs. They are saying fear has left the market to such a degree that the "risk" incentive for owning PMs is not such a factor anymore. They point to the charts, the Fed hubbub, and other things to convince investors that gold and silver may not be the alluring pick they were even last year.

Now, if I were playing short-term paper, I would pay attention and play the market accordingly. Yet, I personally tend to believe that whatever the big players are pumping is almost always to their advantage.

I think they are imaging PMs down both for political purposes and for their own gain. Want to bet PMs aren't being accumulated by the same parties trying to drop them?

I remember the old rule of thumb from my journalistic days in college which says:

When in doubt, always follow the money trail.

Yes - I Have Joined The Ranks

SP,

Yes, I can see where this could be better than a Savings account in some ways. I have reviewed your listings and had to bite on one of them. So, I guess I have joined the ranks of people here who have bid on your silver coins and the like.

I only wish I had something close to your collection, and something tells me your listings are only a drop in the bucket as to what you may actually have.

Anyway, I guess it is a wait and see game here on how Asia and India will effect the spot prices this week. Personally, I think they will just stall the onslaught for the time being.

Time will tell.

Found Gold Today - Finally

After having a tooth filled today, I decided to go to one of my favorite hunting holes. While digging through some old stuff, I found two light-colored earrings and some loose change.

I did not have a magnifying glass or magnet, but I thought I could make out 14k on one of the posts. Sure enough, when I get home both earrings are solid 14K including the backs. Their spot price is around $68 and they cost me nothing. I also picked up a yearbook from one of the area colleges from 1948 in perfect condition. It weighed enough to put on the scale for sale. I picked it up for .89 if I recall correctly.

So, not a bad day after all.

Darn It - Gone Already

Man, it is already sold. I will have to add you to my favorite sellers list on E-Bay and keep track of your auctions.

Nice hunk of silver there and a good price to boot.

Tom Luongo - Read Worthy Article

G-20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off

Sat, Feb 16, 2013 | by Tom Luongo
about: GLD | includes: PHYS, SLV
In a few of my previous articles, I have tried to lay out the fundamental reasons for why we are far closer to the end of this consolidation in gold (GLD) than the beginning. As this year has unfolded, price action has strained that thesis; turning the last month, in particular, into a gut-wrenching exercise in relentless price-capping and high volume indiscriminate precisely-timed selling which has forced longs to retreat again and again. The mixture of the Asian Lunar New Year and the G-20 meeting created the perfect backdrop for what I think is the final down move in gold before the fundamentals take over.

Having watched the ticker in gold for far longer than any rational person should, I can tell you that the sheer magnitude of the selling in the face of very stiff support has been unique in this bull market. Every time you would think there was a high volume stand at a major support level that would mark a normal bottom has been met the next day or even hour with more coordinated selling. Normal markets simply do not trade that way. This kind of relentless pushing down of the price of gold is designed to do two things.

Support the narrative that the recovery is real and that the economy is improving.
Allow further accumulation of gold by the strongest players in the market at the expense of retail investors.
Every bull market goes through moments like this. It doesn't matter the instrument type. The sentiment in gold is as bearish as I've ever seen it. Some like the contrarian nature of that as an indicator. I'm ambivalent to it as bearish sentiment can last for years. No bull market wants to take the uncommitted along for the ride. I own physical gold and silver (SLV) for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that it keeps me from making a fear-driven mistake during a day like Friday.

This is why I do not look at my holdings of physical metal as an investment. Gold is not an investment; it is a form of savings which hedges against political venality, investment banker sociopathy and central planner hubris, all of which I see as being in a massive bull market at the moment. For that reason alone I advocate having a measure of your portfolio in gold. That measure is personal but it should be something.

Traders don't see this. They see everything as an opportunity to exploit an edge and therefore come at any discussion that way and will backfill their argument for a particular position based on what they are seeing in the price action of the moment. I don't begrudge them this. I'm just not impressed with their investment theses when it comes to gold.

The current price action in GLD for February is as follows. The range, defined here as the difference between monthly closes, for GLD on average is $6.25 in any given month. January closed at $161.20 and GLD closed on Friday 2/15 at $155.76 after hitting a low of $154.60. This move to $154.60 is very likely to be all the downward movement we'll see in gold this month. Moreover, the normal move below the open for the month is $4.92 and we've seen GLD drop $8.06 from the open this month. So, we are well past normal behavior and the farther we are from normal, the lower the probability of more of a move in that direction - in this case, down.

This is why I'm comfortable with saying we've very likely seen prices go as low as they will this month. Lastly, we have the round number effect of $1600 per ounce corresponding to that low on GLD and round numbers like that are magnets in both directions. It will be important to watch Asian trading sessions this upcoming week to see if that uncovers heavy number of bids at this price level.

Now, that said, there is no percentage in calling bottoms or tops, however, no matter how many you get right or wrong. The best you can do is look at the fundamentals, assess the probabilities and place your bets. When gold approached $1696 last month, a breakout opportunity came into view. I said as much. It was a good trade setup and that setup failed. It happens. Traders dust themselves off and move on. Analysts ask why it failed and attempt to figure it out.

My position on gold from a fundamental standpoint is similar in mindset to a value investor who looks at an asset and decides it is undervalued at that moment in time. It doesn't matter, necessarily, if the asset is 20% undervalued and is trending down and can be picked up for 30% off later. It is undervalued therefore it should be bought with little worry about the timing. Some of the reasons for it being undervalued are as follows:

The Fed is expanding its balance sheet and the monetary base at the fastest rate since TARP.
Currency debasement is happening all around the world, not just in Japan.
The Fed is inviting inflation to chop down the savings rate and stimulate money velocity.
The Fed will simply not allow any kind of deflation to occur. Mr. Bernanke has made that abundantly clear.
Purchases of U.S. Treasuries (IEI) have slowed considerably since the QE III announcement front-running the Fed's purchases.
The Republicans will yield on the debt ceiling paving the way for no real budget cuts in 2013.
Physical demand is so strong that closed-end funds like the Sprott Physical Trust (PHYS) are trading at a premium to NAV (1.22% for PHYS).
Gold is in backwardation out to April as of the close on February 15th.
The biggest coin dealers in the U.S. are buying 1 oz Gold Eagles at $46 (2.5%) over the current futures price.
For potential gold investors trying to figure out if this is the bottom or not but don't possess the skills of timing to decide, dollar cost average into a position over time if you like the story. If you don't look at something else to buy because nothing will break your spirit faster than trying to time the gold price looking for a bottom.

(click to enlarge)


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

What Does This Have To Do With Metals?

This is interesting, but I do not know how an oil stock is related to precious metals.

Sometimes Value Can Be Found in NGC vs PCGS

SP,

Just a note here that sometimes one can find value looking at NGC graded coins. I know that PCGS tends to bring higher resell values, but I am not really convinced they deserve the premium.

If I can find two coins graded identically the same from PCGS and NFC, I will of course go with PCGS if the price is almost the same. If there is a decent spread, I will go with the lower priced NGC and take advantage of the gained value of the purchase.

Just something I thought I might drop in here seeing how grading seems to be in the air.

I Removed Milk Spots On My Timberwolves Last Year

SP,

I purchased a few Timberwolves last year which had some milk spots and which were not graded. After removing the spots, I was able to sell at a slightly higher price.

Only wish I had kept them at this point. Right now I really like the 1/2 oz Australian Year of The Dragon coins. Something tells me they are going to increase quite well.

If It Were My Retirement Then Paper - But....

Yes, I tend to agree that the world does work via the paper concept. Also, I think that if everything does fall apart you
would be better to have food, water, medical supplies, and ammunition in your residence than gold or silver.

This brings up the point that different people have different reasons for holding and selling silver and gold. Personally, I am looking at finding silver and gold well below spot value in hopes of selling it at the right times and making some profit. This profit will hopefully help me if I do not find a job and my unemployment benefits run out.

Sadly, our Republican dominated state government in NC has just passed a bill that will likely be signed into law. As of July 1st, the maximum on can draw will be lowered from around $535 high end to a $350 cap. Also, 26 weeks will be cut to a sliding 12-20 week period and this state change will eliminate all extended benefits being offered by the Federal government.

If I were building my IRA, I would be trading some paper gold and silver as well as playing very short term swings in reliable stocks. As for now, it will be more of a survival mechanism and anything else.

Gold May Bounce Next Week

I am reading that players in China will be back full swing this coming week and that there is another wedding season coming in India. Thus, there could be a bounce back due to additional physical buying this coming week.

Personally, I wonder if the increased buying will help the trend reverse or if it will only prevent it from becoming even worse.