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SilentBob
Elmer is simply a basher. It is obvious by his posts he has no ownership in AMD other than maybe being short the stock. I have put him on the spot the time he got his options strategy backwards, which would have had him losing money, not making money. He is only here to put people down and mock AMD shareholders/investors. If you notice Elmer has now response to my last post about the 100K Itaniums shipped statement. I reminded him of how Intel had to give away 3000 (2000 to IBM) initially because nobody was interested. Saying how many you have shipped means very little in this case. It's how many Intel has been able to sell, especially at the list prices.
Elmer, Otellini did not say 100K sold
It only said shipped. That includes samples which we all know has been rather significant. Heck, almost all of the first 3000 shipped originally were given away for free like the 2000 Intel gave IBM for a supercomputer. Otellini is trying to make people think that other businesses are migrating to Itanium, when in fact most are not. This is just another piece of propaganda from Intel. I have seen none of the research groups validate Otellini's statement so it's nothing to crow or laugh about. You should know this by the wording alone, but you choose to hype anything that sounds good for Intel. To me this is just another meaningless statement from Intel. There is no proof to show Intel has actually sold 100K Itaniums.
sgolds
I think you see that Intel Israel Flash Fab the same way as I do, and that is it is not going to be a factor during the current upswing for Flash. That additional capacity is just going to hurt pricing going forward in 2005 when it starts producing output. I myself figure Flash demand peaking by the end of 2004.
kpf
I read through the terms on the first convertible which will only dilute by about 21 million shares, and they can redeem/convert those bonds on Jan 5, 2005, as long as the stock has closed at 130% of the conversion price (above $30) on 20 of the 30 days within 5 days notice is given to the bondholders. I believe AMD will redeem those bonds ASAP so that if demand for Flash and CPU's is starting to drop, they won't have to worry about keeping that debt. I believe Flash demand will peak in 2004, while CPU demand will peak early in 2005. With this in mind I figure the stock will peak next year around Christmas. I will not get greedy and hold this stock too long because once the upgrade cycle starts to back off the stock price will move down quickly. Then the focus is also going to switch to AMD remaining competitive with Intel with K9 and a new fab for 65nm/300mm. That fab is going to cost over 2 billion and that will start to pull from reserves weakening the balance sheet. I think AMD is going to have a great year in 2004 but I am realistic that this is a cyclical business and Intel is not going away. When times are good AMD and Intel can make lots of money, AMD more on a per share basis, but Intel more in dollar terms. I am just in this till the ride gets to the top and then I will be back on the sidelines.
Petz
1st bond issue: 43 shares per $1000 in bonds, $23 and change per share as follows (Dilution 21,500,000 shares);
The Debentures will be redeemable at the company's option beginning on February 5, 2005, provided that the company may not redeem the Debentures prior to February 5, 2006 unless the last reported sale price of the company's common stock is at least 130% of the then effective conversion price for at least 20 trading days within a period of 30 consecutive trading days ending within five trading days of the date of the redemption notice.
2nd bond issue: 7.37 exercise price, Not redeemable till 2007,
dilution about 68,000,000 shares.
The first issue will probably knock the price down 5 to 10%. the second one in my opinion should not be converted, rather pay the interest and buy them back at the end of the term.
The rules on the first convertible mean closes above $30 on 20 of 30 days ending within 5 days of the redemption notice. so If the stock is trading above $30 in January of 2005, which I consider to be likely based on current market info, I expect AMD to redeem those Convertibles on or shortly after Feb 5, 2005. My exit strategy was keying on the stock peaking around Christmas of 2004 with businesses upgrading over the next 12 to 18 months. My guess is December 04 or January 05 may be the time to cash out. I figure by that time demand will probably be backing off on Flash and peaking on CPU's. After all semi's are cyclical, and the industry is mature.
Petz
I think AMD will definitely convert the first convertible bond issue since it has a price in the low 20's. That issue would only add about 21 million shares or just over 6% to shares outstanding. The second convertible is the one that will really dilute things because the conversion price on that one is 7.37, and converts to around 60 million shares. I plan to be out of this stock before the second conversion becomes an issue. I do think that AMD can get their reserves up by about 250 million a quarter at break even operations, which would mean they could have 2 billion by the end of the third quarter of next year, and more with any profits.
Thanks sgolds
Your post was really informative and filled in the gaps. Since AMD is going to need to spend billions on a new Fab, It is a good thing they just became cash flow positive last quarter. Obviously AMD needs to turn profits in coming quarters so that they can get their cash and reserves over 2 billion. If the Gartner Research group is right about a 20% increase in semi sales, AMD should do very well in the coming year. They are probably figuring for a business upgrade cycle which would probably mean sales will peak about 12 months out. Obviously I am just trying to come up with a preliminary target of when the stock will peak, so as to figure an exit strategy. Thanks again for the info.
sgolds
Thanks for the clarification, I thought you had meant that Intel had something to unveil. I have another question. Why can't Dresden be refitted for 65nm. Is it simply the 300mm wafers? I figure a new fab is going to cost in excess of 2 billion dollars which is big bucks for AMD. What happened to the idea of using the IBM Fab in NY? I am also curious as to how many chips of each kind AMD can make in a quarter, especially at times like now when Dresden is being partially converted for 90nm as we speak. Also I keep hearing about how yields are declining with each die shrink. I would be curious to see how large the decreases are. If you have any insight or knowledge on any of my additional questions I would be interested to hear them.
sgolds
In your post you said somthing about Intel having a response by 2006. Do you know of something specific or are you just figuring that by that time Intel will have come up with a better chip?
KeithDust2000 next resistance is likely $20
The analyst comments yesterday about AMD being able to reach the highs of 2000 in 2004 might have something to do with what looks like another leg up for AMD. It's a herd mentality and people don't want to miss out and right now AMD is hot. The key for moving above $20 will be Profits in Q4 and guidance towards profits throughout 2004. Then the stock can really move. A business upgrade cycle could be coming which will raise all boats, but some more than others.
Elmer Phud are you the guy who chases bugs bunny?
See that statement is an assumption because of the name you took. I know that is not the case because I have intelligence, something more than I can say for some of the posters on this board. Do me another favor, this is the AMD board so I could care less what Intel headlines you post, but do it on the Intel Board since it serves no purpose other than cluttering this board. All you do is make negative comments about AMD on this board. Everyone here knows you probably have most of your money invested in Intel so you are not fooling anyone. ANd don't waste my or anyone elses time saying you are investing in AMD because that is obviously incorrect. Nobody who bashes AMD as much as you would invest in AMD. Plus I have found flaws,as have others in your stated options strategies on AMD.
So if you want to sing Intels praises, do it on the INTC board because nobody takes you seriously in your opinion on AMD.
wbmw let me make this clear
I have never posted on Raging Bull and if you can't deal with it tough. I swear some of the folks on this board sound like all they do is post on boards. Just because a name is similar means nothing.
Greg S learn how to read
This is not Raging Bull and that is not my post. I suggest you learn how to read before posting nonsense. I am forwarding your post to the administrators.
Elmer have you forgotten the INTC board
It was very clear that Hector is predicting a profit and not break even in Q403. You just can't deal with the fact that the tide has turned and AMD is not going out of business, boo hoo for you. It won't be long before AMD has better EPS than Intel, take that to the bank.
AMD Shorts running scared
As of October 15, there were just over 38 million shares short of AMD. Based on yesterdays volume without any significant news, I would say quite a few more shorts were forced to exit their failed strategy. I guess they finally got the clue that AMD is not going under, and will return to profitability this quarter. AMD's Opteron is mopping the deck with Xeon on benchmarks, and keeps adding to it's design wins. The A64 FX51 is the top desktop chip available, scoring better than even the Extremely Expensive Edition P4. And to top it all off MSFT picked IBM for it's next XBox instead of Intel. Looks like IBM is trying to send a message to Intel. The tide has turned and AMD is now back in the driver's seat. I guess INTC must be having issues with 90 NM since earlier this year INTC indicated Prescott being available in Q403.
Elmer you should pay closer attention
All you do is come on this board and bash AMD. You were wrong on AMD and that is obvious. But trying to explain how your still making money writing calls or puts is irrelavent. Writing Calls or Puts is simply a function of how a stock is doing, and we don't need your help on that as was proven by the Earnings release. I have watched your so called strategy and you have lost money of late. So don't waste my time trying to rationalize because nobody is buying. I am not wasting my time getting in a pissing contest with you so don't waste your time posting a response, it won't be answered. My advice to you is stay on the Intel Board where someone might actually agree with everything you say.
AMD will be profitable in Q403
The tide has turned and AMD is on it's way back to profitability. 2004 should be a good year for AMD. It's funny how some of the Intel folks were temporarily silent last night after the numbers came out. Nothing like a serving of crow pie to quiet the antagonists. I couldn't care less how they rationalize AMD vs Intel, this is the AMD board after all, or how they are still making money writing calls or puts on AMD, who cares. IN Q201, AMD made .05 and missed estimates by a lot causing AMD stock to quickly lose $10. Now AMD has blown away expectations in Q303 (.09) which will likely be it's last losing quarter for a while, like Q201 was it's last profitable quarter. AMD will likely see the 20's before this year is over. Prices will come down on A64 as volume ramps, but overall ASP's are going to keep rising. AMD is going to take more of the high end from Intel, and that's where the money is to be made. I look for AMD to as usual fare better in the tech spending recovery than Intel on a percentage basis. The icing on the cake will be when per share earnings for AMD pass Intel. Because when that happens AMD will certainly be above Intel in terms of stock price.
sgolds
when this rally first started and the stock moved above 8, I figured it was the beginning of a short covering rally. There were just under 39 million shares short in August, which means that something else is going on, rather than just a short covering rally. Some of the volume is likely because of more people willing to play AMD short term, but there is also the possibility that big money either knows something, or is making a large bet on AMD. If AMD were some how able to break even and give guidance for a profitable Q4, the stock could see the 20's in the current environment. I am not saying AMD will do that because they have disappointed before. Opteron is gaining traction, but I don't see it adding more than say 50 million to revenue in Q3. If demand is really picking up then AMD will be able to grow revenue more from rising ASP's. The jury is out until AMD reports, or until AMD gives guidance. My guess is that if AMD has good news they won't say anything until earnings come out in mid October. One thing that I have noticed in the past is that a certain percentage gain in revenues by Intel can point to a larger percentage gain in revenues from AMD. Just like when the sector has had hard times, things have been tougher on AMD in percentage terms.
KeithDust2000
The easiest thing to do with Subzero is to put him on your ignore list. It's just easier for all in the long run sincethat type of person wants to start problems, andwill go away if he is ignored.
sgolds
Now that makes sense, your explanation makes it much more clear. So actually AMD's breakeven will not be 1 billion, but probably a little less than 850 million. My guess is AMD even with a pickup in business will still lose about 100 million in Q3, which is (.29) earnings. Maybe AMD can get close to breakeven in Q4 but that remains to be seen. I think AMD needs the PC upgrade cycle to really show decent profits in the current environment.
sgolds
This part of the year is usually down for the markets leading into early to mid October. While Nasdaq continued to break out, the DJ couldn't put in a new high. There is no compelling reason for this market to go higher and now people are starting the inevitable seasonal downturn in the market. The next good time to buy into this market will be after the first week of October. Happy trading.
KeithDust2000
I believe there is still very significant uncertainty at AMD going forward. The info given on Flash doesn't add up. How can AMD attribute 211 million to Flash in Q2 with 50% split with Fujitsu, yet they claim with 60% that Flash Revenues will rise by 180 million. How do they come up with this math unless Fujitsu had really been taking more than 50% of the product previously. Going from 50% to 60% is a 20% increase, Yet 180 million as a percentage of 211 million is 85%. Plus expenses go up by 211 million while revenue goes up by 180 million in Flash in Q3. That means a bigger loss in Flash. My belief is AMD has to make inroads in this country because once again 73% of sales came internationally. I think Intel is putting the pressure on, trying to starve AMD to bankruptcy, and it seems to be working. Look at how Intel called companys before the April 22 intro of Opteron. My guess is that if things go south IBM will buy AMD. But the weaker AMD's balance sheet is, the cheaper IBM will be able to acquire AMD.
AMD's Q3 breakeven with Spansion = 1 billion
This is an increase of 211 million, yet they only expect Flash memory sales to increase by 180 million. Is that 180 million per quarter or year? I would think that should be the increase per year going from 50% to 60% of what was FASL. Hector and the boys need to explain this and the 1 billion number. I would also like to know why R&D increased, I thought that number was supposed to drop going forward. Also the Deprecaiation/Amortization numbers increased.
yourbankrupcy
AMD tends to end their quarter on a Sunday. That was the case for Q103 and Q202.
sgolds
I agree with you that the miss came from desktop chips and flash, not from an Opteron shortfall. I was only figuring that Opteron would add as much as 10-15 million to revenue. To get 100M in revenue from opteron they would have to sell 200K chips at an ASP of $500 to get 100 million. I doubt that will be possible before 2004. I will also be curious to see what happened to Flash because business should have been good since AMD gained Flash business when Intel tried to raise prices. I am wondering whether Intel's marketing might is what is keeping AMD sales down. One thing is for sure time is running out for AMD since it would not be easy to do another convertible bond deal, that would surely tank the stock and be a sign of dispair. I wonder what the chances are that IBM might by AMD on the cheap?
KeithDust2000 nice job
You are several hours ahead of Mike Magee and the Inquirer.
Thanks for the links. My guess is that the 2G Opteron 246 probably won't be available until at least late July. I'm not sure that the prices on the 1.4G to 1.8G Opteron will have to fall 1 notch down the pricing ladder, like is usually the case with desktop chips. I would guess that it will be a while longer before we see a 2G Opteron 846.
Greg S
Like you have never been wrong. I bet if we were to go back and look, we would find many failed predictions on your part. But unlike you I have better things to do than spending days on end looking at old posts. Considering how infrequently I post here this board must be your life. Knowing that makes me very happy. Welcome to the ignore feature which will make your hours of searching for incorrect predictions worthless going forward as far as I am concerned.
kpf
I do look at pricewatch and I concur with you that 1.4G is the sweetspot right now. One note, the 246 will be 2.0G since the 244 is 1.8G . On a side note I know there are websites that do have the 1.8GHZ Opteron 244 since I typically will browse websites to see if they have product in stock, and if not, I have them notify me like the following:
This email is to notify you that as of 6/11/03 12:00:00 PM Central Time, item AMDOSA244BOX - OPTERON 244 DUAL PROCESSOR BOXED VERSION COMES WITH FAN AND is in stock.
You may use the link below to go directly to this product or visit http://www.spartantech.com
http://www.spartantech.com/product.asp?PID=AMDOSA244BOX
Thanks for visiting SpartanTech.com
wbmw
I am curious because originally back in March there was talk that a 246 (2.0G) Opteron would be available in June which currently seems unlikely. I agree with you that AMD won't get higher than 2.4G on Opteron at .13, Heck, 2.4 is not a given at .13 .
When will AMD release a 2G Opteron
I am starting to wonder about this. There could be a couple of issues here. Maybe AMD feels rushing out a faster Opteron will only hurt prices on currently available Opterons. Or maybe AMD is not getting the desired binsplits, which is forcing them to stick with 1.4G to 1.8G Opterons. I am curious as to what is dictating AMD's actions right now. My hope is that AMD just doesn't want to hurt the prices on currently available Opterons, and that they are building supply of 2G or higher Opterons. I guess we will just have to wait and see.
belgiangenius
Actually thatwasthe trend until Q103, when AMD lost .42 and the estimate was for a loss .49. AMD beat consensus 7 cents. Another thing to note is when AMD warns, they do so by the end of the first week of the new quarter. July 4 falls on a friday so the latest AMD would wait to warn would be monday July 7. I don't think AMD is going to warn. The signs I see are that motherboard business was up in May which is a good sign. I am figuring AMD makes 480 million on microprocessors in Q2, along with 240 million in Flash, and 30 million in other products for a grand total of 750 million. This will put AMD at least a dime ahead of current expectations of aloss of .24, assuming break-even is 800 million or less. In less than 4 weeks we will know because AMD won't warn after July 7. My strategy is to buy in on July 8 if all goes as expected.
belgiangenius I don't expect AMD to miss
Some of the analyst community is pushing Intel but they have been wrong many times before. All this talk about AMD going to miss is really pretty funny and based on less than hersay. The truth is AMD is going to have at least 10% more revenue from flash this qaurter than last thanks to the new business from those who would take the Intel price hike and growing demand. As far as microprocessors go, the information I have seen posted shows nothing in so far as AMD having problems selling microprocessors. people talk about the SARS affect in CHina, but AMD only sells low end chips into that market because per capita in China is under $3000. Others site lower list prices for the desktop chips. The problem with that theory is anyone who really knows realizes that it's better to sell 20,000 chips at $400 than less than a 1,000 at $500-$600. That is the reality of it because AMD is producing more XP2800+ and higher chips now than they were in Q1(better binsplits). Also the $50 rebates AMD was giving on every chip has disappeared in Q2 so I have just given a few reasons as to why ASP's are not going to drop. I figure Opteron will add somewhere between 10 and 20 million in Q2 which will also help microprocessor revenue. SO all this talk of "The sky is falling" for AMD are unsubstantiated rumors.
Haddock, on Intel Fabs
I would figure that at least one Intel Fab has started converting to .09 which means no current production from that Fab. I tend to doubt anything Intel executives say, especially about capacity being maxxed out unless they are already converting several Fabs to .09. Intel's executives are infamous for bending the truth to appear stronger than they are. It's like all the big talk about how Intel's going to gain back lost Flash Marketshare overnight. That is impossible because the business AMD took from Intel when Intel raised prices is locked in to AMD for the length of the contracts signed. Intel does not have a chance to get back share until those contracts run out, with the exception being any new companies looking to purchase Flash. Look at the Insider selling in Intel and you can see that Intel executives are taking what they can get, while AMD executives are not selling, but were buying AMD shares.
wbmw done "Point of Saying" EOM see below:
On a side note I would appreciate if the folks who keep removing my post to wbmw cease and desist. POS means "Point of Saying". I find it a bit annoying to be making a point only to have it removed. Now you know what POS means, so I would appreciate that if you don't know what an acronym means, then ask, but don't remove my post because it shows a lack of respect on the part of those running this board. Oh yeah should I have also explained that EOM means End of Message?
yourbankrupcy
Itanium is a failure for Intel. Intel thought they would changed the world with this chip and it's new architecture, and they have had to give it away because not many have been willing to pay big bucks for subpar performance. I will not be suprised if AMD sells more Opteron in Q2 than Intel has sold Itaniums to date. I also think that if Intel pushes Celeron too hard in the mobile area, they will cut their own throats on Centrino. To me buying Centrino is essentially paying $500 extra for 802.11 when you can get a card for $50 to do the same. Intel better hope people are stupid or Centrino is going to lose it's premium quickly.
chipguy
Welcome to my ignore list.
wbmw read the article again
That article says nothing about AMD executives having puts on IBM. Where do you get this stuff? My guess is you are just trying to spread misinformation as usual. Fred Hickey does not work for any of the companies mentioned. He is analyst with a proven track record. I thought I had told you not to bother responding to my posts unless you could behave. Don't waste my time because I won't stoop to your level again.
Dr. John Faessel - On The Market (SPX, SOX, INTC, KLAC, IBM, AMAT, TXN, NOK, STM, AMD)
9 Jun 2003, 07:36am ET
E-mail or Print this story
- - - - -
212-713-5793 onthemar@yahoo.com ROUND TRIP - AGAIN - and a BLOWOFF ALARM Friday's round trip on big volume- from an early burst to the top of a tight 13-day channel - then a reversal to the lower limits border was a stunner of a 'distribution' sell signal. This was the fourth hellacious reversal candle of the run that began on March 12 - yet we have plowed higher with just minor pullbacks in spite of the first three sell signals. Sentiment overview's are now reading in tandem and ringing at market-topping levels, suggesting - sell. McClellan Oscillator ticked an 'overbought' high of +151 on Thursday, reversed to +104 on Friday close. There was a minor change read (-5) after Wednesday's +146 / Thursday +151. Minor change reads suggest a rip one way or the other usually the opposite of the trend, which was up. Therefore, it is calling for a spin down. Today we hang just above the lower boundary of the channel that has contained trading for 13 days, (the trajectory of which is, even more, straight up than the preceding channel that began on March 12th.) So there is a definite lower 'support line' that if breached will call in mucho selling. The bail out number is S&P 500 (SPX) 985. Go long at (SPX) 598. I just finished reading value guru Fred Hickey's, THE HIGH-TECH STRATEGIST (603-888-3954) - released June 5th. - and he's talking about pigs flying, frenzies, manias and a Market being 'pixie dusted' - needless to say, he thinks it's overvalued. Says - compared to 1988 to 1998 (not even counting the bubble top in 99 & 00) PE's of the top semiconductor index (SOX) stocks are now 100% overvalued. Using Price to Sales, it's 200% overvalued. He likes to plant 'put' options position on at 'tops' of rallies, when the Sentiment indicators read - too hot - like now. He does not short stocks. Fred says he has current 'put' positions in (INTC), (KLAC), (IBM), (AMAT), (TXN), (NOK), (STM) also says he has "lots of mobile phone exposure", read 'puts' there too. Likes - (AMD) stock, says their Opteron chip is a winner over the (INTC) Itanium chip that he says "is a dog". Says (AMD) s Opteron will get "a landside of support." Should say here that Fred has been 'really - really' right over the last 3-year Bear. He reads (sounds like) every report and listens to every conference call of the big Tech guys and is up - way up - on their stuffed channels, over capacity, forecasts (rarely believes), guidance, surveys, industry publications, etc. ta, ta. You want to go dig in after the time spent with his thoughts. *Latest May 31st Short Positions of - total NYSE and NASDAQ shares are 12.1 billion - that's down from the all time high of 12.5 billion of April 30th - off 400 million or 3.3 % for the month. As of Dec 31, 1999 - the total short was 6.3 billion.
Dan3
I think Intel is trying to dictate what the market wants, but due to competition from AMD, it is having a harder time accomplishing that goal. People don't always want to be led around by the nose as to what they should want or buy. I understand what Intel is doing. They are trying to come out with the knockout punch for AMD, but have yet been unable to do so. I think AMD can return to profitability and maybe we see the increased corporate pc buying starting late this year into early next year. I believe the Bear market has essentially run it's coursee and we are now going into a period of gradual expansion. Remember that part of what has kept the market down this long is overdone pessimism, just like ther was overdone optimism before the tech bubble burst just over 3 years back. Investor moods change gradually, but currently that mood is improving. The key for AMD is no
screw-ups like Intel has done with Itanic and Centrino. It's better to be late than to put out a product that fails.
edgarcayce
I think AMD could trade down due to typical summer trading patterns, but $6 should hold fairly strong support. The question on everyone's mind is what will Q2 numbers be. I expect revenues to be up modestly due to an increase in Flash revenue, and about 20 million in Opteron Revenue. Any business lost in China due to SARS is low end which will not amount to much in revenue, and will allow for an increase in average selling prices. I am kind of curious whether AMD will roll out an XP3400+ Barton. If they do it better be at 2.4GHZ or it will come under scrutiny. I think AMD could put out a 2.4G XP3400+ Barton, but if the first Athlon64's are supposed to top out at XP3400+, then AMD will not put out a higher speed Barton.