Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[facsnotfiction]

kpf
I read through the terms on the first convertible which will only dilute by about 21 million shares, and they can redeem/convert those bonds on Jan 5, 2005, as long as the stock has closed at 130% of the conversion price (above $30) on 20 of the 30 days within 5 days notice is given to the bondholders. I believe AMD will redeem those bonds ASAP so that if demand for Flash and CPU's is starting to drop, they won't have to worry about keeping that debt. I believe Flash demand will peak in 2004, while CPU demand will peak early in 2005. With this in mind I figure the stock will peak next year around Christmas. I will not get greedy and hold this stock too long because once the upgrade cycle starts to back off the stock price will move down quickly. Then the focus is also going to switch to AMD remaining competitive with Intel with K9 and a new fab for 65nm/300mm. That fab is going to cost over 2 billion and that will start to pull from reserves weakening the balance sheet. I think AMD is going to have a great year in 2004 but I am realistic that this is a cyclical business and Intel is not going away. When times are good AMD and Intel can make lots of money, AMD more on a per share basis, but Intel more in dollar terms. I am just in this till the ride gets to the top and then I will be back on the sidelines.