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Semis definitely leading - SOX about to wipe out Wed loss
while averages only making modest recoveries.
Do we really have a semi rally - have to say yes!
If BRCM comes through today, it could make big gap up!!!
[I'm betting on it]
QQQ buying pressure, NDX leading COMPQ this could be something for real!!!!
If we get some heavy volume, we may have just seen the lows.
Markets just might go vertical when volume comes in because of the rampant negative sentiment.
MXIM still holding very well not much of high
BRCM reports today, KLAC holding well
Given reaction to CNXT, BRCM has come down to very attractive levels. I have been putting together significant call position today when stock goes under 35 - so far twice today.
I wish we would have had down gap, but no.
Perhaps a good bounce off the lows with semis acting best???
Already saw from yesterday open that semis want to run,
but will we now have to see SOX<400 first on a gap down open???
With 4 weeks to run - buying more Aug calls at bargin prices
MXIM 50, KLAC 42.50 BRCM 37.50
Look for some semis to best their Tue/Wed highs very quickly
I agree - mkts hostage to oil still - double top there
Perhaps break of 1900 was needed - but no panic selling.
Let's see if we get semi>10 by close - good luck!
Off to w/e poker tourney - see you next Wed.
BRCM: moving on its own? Anyone see any news?
Calmly building to a rally - good
N leading D as we want it
BRCM acting well ... still nothing convincing in semis
A little time is needed to see if selling has dried, then we should see some sort of rally attempt - sleep until then.....
SNDK out-trading INTC - semis gone crazy
without a rally soon, semis are dead and will drift down.
INTC should find a lower price as it has done on every prior big drop on heavy vol
SNDK / QLGC - good eps and trading up!!!!!
I'll take any positives here
I own a lot of INTC stock and write puts and calls on it. I do not want to move any of the stock, This is my first loser in doing this this year.
It appears to have been a good move.
I like to control my own trades - don't need someone exercising against me when unexpected.
You got it!!!!!
Note semi equips held in this last dip - not so BRCM
Panic selling climax? V bottom??????
Triggers system selling??????
Broke it - now we are in for it!!!!!!
So much for perfect touches - SOX still holding above Oct low but only 1.22 away @419.99
Scary: You're begining to sound like me - pointing out these little coincidences. I did the same several days ago.
Vol in INTC is unbelieveable!
When KLAC broke 40 I could not resist some Jul 40's and Aug 42.50 calls.
I am all done - spent all of my Aug cash to the penny.
I can only wait and watch now.
Have had to close those INTC puts at a loss - so much for the sure thing writing puts!
SOX came close to breaking Oct low of 418.77, but held
given major indices - NDX especially did not collapse gives a good indication of a bottom.
Move in MSFT shows PC sales expected to be very good - China.
Best stock IMHO is BRCM down 10 points based on CNXT news - has nothing to do with BRCM itself!!!!!
I have loaded up on the following calls for Aug
BRCM 40 1.50
KLAC 40 1.50
MXIM 50 1.10
Also hold other issues and other strikes - but these are primary positions.
I like [g] what I see - major averages have made nice recovery and can very well rally. No second dip.
I do not have to worry about being assigned if I cover my INTC puts during the day - so I have been told.
MACD: SOX/SMH current MACD bottom not confirming this as a new down move - for what it's worth.
I have now committed my entire Aug cash allotment - can only wait - it is going to be retirement or more work!
Now buying Aug calls: KLAC MXIM BRCM
SOX breaks May low - now Oct low up next at 418.77
Where's Mike? Vacation? I go next week and I will need it to heal my wounds!!!!!
Curious fact: Jul 14 is the most up day [85%] of any day.
What does it mean - probably nothing - but given it can fall on any day of the week, how could it be so out of whack?
What a day if INTC trades 150mil and ends up with semis bouncing and rallying.
I will put more Aug funds into Aug calls - I still like KLAC.
I feel initial gap should be bought this time as secondary declines seem to have dried up on these down opens of late.
At least INTC said they were keeping capex unchanged.
Semi equips are seeing new customers in China which is the fastest growing mkt for them. All those electronic gadgets the people will demand as they get more prosperous will need chips.
Unfortunately it's not what we think. I am surprised that there was so much focus on the margins and no one wanted to know what the eps would be! Given higher sales which they said would offset the lower margins - the eps could in fact be higher - lower or the same - but no one was interested.
Certainly this could be a most important low in INTC. I am faced with a new problem, I still have some INTC Jul 25 puts I have written [I own the stock]. While I closed most and moved to Aug, I still have over 100.
Major semi reversal day? We need one!!!!!!!!
INTC: 3Q rev range avg 10.5% 6.8% to 14.3%
well above expected 5% to 6%
KLAC - we new that big order might not hit in Q2 - so this is new news and a reason to hit it again??????
Well, I loaded up - spent my Aug wad since the order will fall in Q3.
1:29PM KLA-Tencor comments at SEMICON West (KLAC) 43.40 -1.21: -- Update -- KLAC comments at SEMICON West that still have a long way to go for 300mm; says sees alot of growth potential as buildout continues.
1:21PM Semis/Semi Equips go into freefall after KLAC comments on bookings at SEMICON West : Over the past 10 min have seen KLAC lose almost 1.5 pts... NVLS (-0.72) and AMAT (-0.33) also coming under pressure... have also seen chip names come under pressure, but not nearly to the degree of Semi Equips... SOX currently trading down 0.46%, giving up more than 1% over a 10 min period.
1:13PM Volume Alert -- KLA-Tencor plunges intraday, takes other Semis/Semi Equips with it (KLAC) 43.76 -0.85:
SMH: too bad no island, even so, that appears to be it for the first dip - so I will watch a little before putting Aug funds to work.
SMH: island reversal? if low today is above 34.73
NVLS KLAC: 50d have turned up.
BRCM: closed near open Mon and left long tail.
Warming up to tech starting with IBM??? not a bad thing.
If 1st SMH dip holds above 34.73 I will be buying [starting to spend my Aug allotment of cash].
SEMI initiates sell rating on MER...... Business model archaic
It's amazing - something came out of the blue [MER downgrade of semis] to push the trend score to -100.
So is everything in place for a rally?????
On a contra basis, the extreme negativity should be some sort of important bottom. Will INTC be the catalyst????
As I pointed out Mon, SPX and DJI are completing rather convincing bottoms [higher lows] and MACD's prob. of buy signal is 3 to 4 days [sooner on a couple of 100 plus days].
Overall: it looks like we are set for a rather robust summer rally.
MACD: SPX DJI completing higher low formation on verge of buy signal - prob 3 to 4 days.
Based on this, summer rally setup seems complete - just need NDX to lead - of course that means semis.
This is not the first time MER has made what I believe will become a bogus call.
SMH - sharpest intraday up move in weeks?
Semi report at 1:05 very bullish for 04 and 05
no top yet
thanks to MER for the great buying opportunity!
Correction BRCM 37.50 - MER has given great buy point!!!!
Clearly staying this low for a period of time is very bad.
Semis need to rally today or at least tomorrow.
SemiCon West should continue to show ramp in semi-equip orders with no top in sight - as NVLS said in conf call today.
Bottom line - I am taking this as another extreme dip on a Monday for a Tue turn - should be free money!!!!!
Bought Jul calls: NLVS 30, BRCM 35 and MXIM 45
Looking to buy KLAC 45's - all mad money
MER does it again - NVLS report / view great!
Buy this open dip - MER has it wrong.
Especially in semi-equips which see no peak.
Perhaps we will get that -99 trend score - but I doubt it.
Too much to be gained by trading semis up after 6 mos down.
MER call only shakes out weak holders providing some cheap supply to dealers. Be a dealer, be a buyer.
I am buying some Jun calls on open for some high risk high multiple gains - good luck.
Need chan with more up slope. KLAC NVLS trying to turn 50d up
again - they failed to do so by the close yesterday.
NVLS about to give MACD buy signal - could be negated by eps before bell MON
Chi Sox are white
Bos Sox are red
Phi Sox is ?????
Can you email an Excel w/s where you are using Macros
Dip [if thatwhat it is] appears over - NVLS nearing high
I am in process of converting my Clipper programs to VB
I have not programmed routines callable by Excel
I will look into it.
Question for you - can you export in realtime your input data stream from Esignal say to a file? If so, how many symbols are practical?
If so, I could write a standalone VB program to save all tick data and do any analysis we could program.
You said you sold, I was asking why [you sold]
and in your reply, you have answered my question.
Better question: why did you buy it? Just trying to help, not sniping.
I agree - a good opportunity to get out - good going!
Remember MER upgraded QLGC and see how good [ha] a call that was? Be ready to short SNDK, QLGC when semis 'top'. Damaged goods [on fundamental reasons] usually stay damaged despite broker actions.
But a rising tide will perhaps raise all boats, so short the ones to be the first to sink [when the time comes].
Why? I hope to move into a long candidate like NVLS
SNDK is a short candidate - just watch what happens when China starts making memory chips - DRAM too.
Only buy commodity stocks when the commodity is in short supply. [MU SNDK QLGC]