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Pat yes this is pappytom from I.v. & yAHOO...
Being the cheap old fart that I am Gary bought me a 1 year I-Hub membership to go with the premium membership Blue gave me to I.V.
Still like you I am off to a terrible start in 2011 after a decent 2010 when I took some profits & kept some of my paper losers while increasing cash to 60%.
The winners that were not sold in 2010 are also paper losers now.
As the process of weeding out continues some overwhelming good buys are emerging WKBT & CKGT come to mind as they pass the audit test with on the ground observers saying the operations are very real.
No stock can claim to be 100% legit. U.S. or otherwise but audited results make the odds much better that funny stuff is not obviously a concern.
I do believe China stocks are in a bottoming process,,,however U.S. markets are due a 10% correction causing me to be shy about putting my 60% cash to work at the present time.
later,pappy
WKBT= With 3 new products scheduled for release in March & another very strong new product scheduled for release late in the year WKBT's stated revenue growth of 30-50% in 2011 looks attainable as they also combined the two divisions distribution network.
I have also been in contact with Redchip both thru e-mail & phone &
was told a institutional type investor bought 40k shares after attending the China conference...Why the big slide below the pp of $2.40 with this buying support is possibly linked to the pump & dump before the pp was even announced that took the pps off the previous lows up to over $4 per share... Redchip's representative on the phone believes those that bought the pump have been taking their loss after the recent dump.
Although I don't condone WKBT for its part in promoting the stock ahead of the pp offering I do understand the need to increase the float to facilitate planned listing...however with the CEO holding 80% of shares outstanding they could have found a better way imo.
None the less I see no fraud only a stock that is severly undervalued due to market conditions & a poorly timed & done pp.
I have 5 amigos for 2011 with nuin performing the best due in part to insider buys & great CFO leadership with CKGT & WKBT both having released "audited 2010 results being the most undervalued while I await audited results from the other 2[uta & hfgb]they remain in limbo.
Thanks Gary for the 1 year subscription @ IHUB to go with the free membership I just received from Investors Village.
For a cheap old fart my popularity is on the rise. LOL
I care & hear you guys & while I am only 40% invested in this space I am after today over 50% underwater on that 40% invested.
All of my stocks accept for jada have earnings in a strong uptrend...ckgt is selling way under stated B.V. & a p/e way under 2...hfgb same story...wkbt even worse it is selling for less than cash per share & not only has a p/e under 2 but the CEO owns over 80% of the shares & could buy the rest of the shares he doesn't own using company cash & have almost $40 million left over to run the company. uta has delayed reporting but says they have plenty of cash as well.
The one thing that really bothers me is as undervalued as all these stocks seem to be & with such growth expected from all but jada.
Why haven't they received any buyout offers from competing companies selling at much higher p/e ratios.
Are U.S. based U.S. companies allowed to buy U.S. based Chinese companies in order to get a foothold in China?
If the answer is yes why no offers?
Amazing isn't it & if I hadn't seen videos showing Chinese operations are real I wouldn't ask these questions,,I would just sell take my lumps & ride off into the sunset to enjoy my remaining days.
Was $1.50 the bottom?
I was asking myself this question the other day since the bid was $1.50 & the ask was $1.51 when I put in a strong buy order @$1.51.
Rather than fill even 1 share the mm raised the ask while keeping the bid at $1.50.
Today I got my answer as it made a early day new low @$1.47.
Evidently the market doesn't care that WKBT just announced "audited"
2010 eps of $0.87 fully diluted with B.V.@$2.23,ttm operating cashflow@$34.19M,debt$-0-,total cash $50.36M,cash per share@$1.63,forward revnue growth 30-50% with improving margins & 3 new products being released in the 1st q,ROE 54.10%,ROA 36.28%,RedChip on the ground backdrop coverage within the next month expected...
Will I buy more? You bet but only after the give away sale that keeps WKBT making new lows in spite it being imo the best China growth stock & possibly the best growth stock in the world.
All just one really old farts opinion...
According to yahoo JADA.PK will file on 5-16-2011.
I don't no where they got this information as no late filing with the SEC that i can find.
If they don't file something today we maybe the fools for holding on to this crapshoot.
$1.51 on heavy volume of almost 200k.... I am forced to buy more at this give away price.
I wonder where all the selling is coming from?
How about UTA? They just won the Dumas accounting award for 2011...
Congrads UTA you have just received another award.
[The Dumas Accounting award]
While eps came in at $0.79 fully diluted vs my $0.83 eps estimate due to health drinks only adding $430,000 in revenue.
The roll-out of health drinks was slower than I expected only being introduced in select cities in mid-Nov.
Still 2010 eps blew away analyst including Gary's estimates for the 2010 calender year & almost reached their 2011 projected eps.
Some high-lites;
2010 revenue $24.24M vs $15.33M in 2009
2010 net income $13.44M vs $5.7M in 2009
14.48M fully diluted shares outstanding with shareholder equity of $52M
Cash $40.76M...
projected 2011 revenue $32-36M
P.S.=If you look at costs considering they have a ongoing program to increase production of golden grass nuin did a great job of cost containment to attain eps of $0.79 fully diluted.
Heath drinks & liquor should add about $9M to revenue imo in 2011 & while another 20% increase in average product price cannot be expected my 2011 eps estimate is $1.05-$1.10 without further dilution.
Thank you for your opinion after your visit to China...
WKBT had 28,092,743 shares outstanding as of 12-31-2010 & cash of $50,364,00....
The current pps is $1.66 meaning someone could in theory buy the entire company for $46,433,953.38 leaving almost $4million dollars in cash to run your freely bought company[28,092,743x$1.66=$46,433,953.38]
WKBT generated $39 million in cashflow in 2010 so yes it is a rapidly growing cash cow ready to expand to the next level imo.
The CEO could easily buy the company & take it private...but he has mentioned his desire to do a number of acquisitions to augument the absolutely outstanding organic growth the company has had to date.
So it is my opinion that he would like to use the cash on hand to do acquisitions to 1] Increase product portfolio 2] Increase distribution network 3] Increase manufactoring capabilities.
Did you have any conversations with management while having lunch with them.tia
BSPM is kicking my $ss today for my decision sometime back to sell & buy more wkbt.ob...
Oh well I guess congrads are in order as bspm is also very undervalued.
pappy
Just looked at the poor showing NFEC did on 2010 reported results.
It seems NFEC always has a excuse for not meeting expectations.
This time they said it was because they moved into the new plant.
Next time it will be for more dilution to present shareholders,imo.
Thats why I sold my position today.
good luck to any that remain as I could be wrong.
regards,pappy
The 2nd option "going private" could in my opinion happen if the pps stays at a pps below listing requirements.[Since the CEO already owns 4/5th of shares outstanding.]
At the current low valuation & with their current strong product line &strong R&D development of new products.[A western firm could see WKBT as a interesting acquisition.]
At the current pps you could buy the company using "their cash" if you could get the CEO's permission.lol
Just got off the phone with redchip.
1]Their shares are restricted & none have been sold.
2] One institutional type investor bought 40k shares after attending the Chinese conference WKBT attended.
3] redchip representative just got back from visit to company HQ's in China.[research coverage expected in 2 to 3 weeks.]
4] Sorry for no conference call. [ Only 1 current company representative speaks english & they are working with her to get future cc done.]
5] They believe the selling is from investors that bought before the pp when the stock was in the high $3's.[I remember there was a mail circular pumping the stock before the pp that did get the pps moving up off the lows. In fact I sold my position into that rally. Then rebought @ $2.40.
6] He did mention that all China stocks not just r/merger ones have been weak.
I don't remember the representatives name[old age i guess] but it is his opinion that China stocks should be very close to a bottom & that WKBT is a legit. company with growth ahead.
I am looking forward to investment coverage now that they have visited the company on the ground in China. eom
Sure if they don't launch the 4 new products expected in 2011 close to the timeline expected I wouldn't expect them to post eps of $1.25 in 2011.
However it is my opinion that if WKBT's numbers are correct then we won't stay at the current pps much longer.
If what I expect will be outstanding 1st Q numbers doesn't get the pps moving higher then a buyout from a U.S. company trying to get a foothold in China will obviously find wkbt a very attractive buy.
The CEO of WKBT has tried to get investors attention & increase the float before listing.
However doing a pp 20% below the market pps to raise money for advertisement of new products while sitting aside almost $30million in cash supposedly to do some acretive acquisitions after listing occurs did not get the proper response from investors.
As he continues to do a excellant job of running the company without the pps moving up in tandam at some point he must consider either a buyout by a larger pharm. company or taking the company private.
The only other option I see is that wkbt is a fraud,however a excellant auditing firm has comfirmed past thru 2010 results.
Who is holding the pps down since volume has increased since the pp.
Could it be those trying to pry make good shares from the CEO + IR & others that received free shares thru the pp dumping as well.
I think RedChip has done a poor job promoting the company look at where the pps was when they were hired & look at it now.
Are they trying to help the share price get lower by dumping their shares at a bad time?
$1.91+$0.26 or 15.76% is all investors were willing to pay today.
With cash over $50million thats about $2.00 a share in cash & B.V. is well over $2.00 a share as well.
I hope they plan to update us on a few things like guidance other than they expect 30-50% revenue growth with increased margins due to 4 new products being launched in 2011 with 3 scheduled for release in the 1st Q.
And what plans do they have for their rapid growing cash horde...acquisitions & expanding existing manufactoring facilities which should meet full capacity by yearend 2011 come to mind since they have no plans to issue a cash dividend at the present time.
And how do they plan to meet listing requirements with such a low pps in the time allowed in the private placement.
And when is RedChip going to start earning their money instead of cashing in shares they received for IR services.
Lot of questions have yet to be answered & no investors call has yet been scheduled.
Research coverage would also be nice...again RedChip could & should get the ball rolling in that direction as well.
RedChip did send me a Investors Kit but it gave me no information I hadn.t already attained off the wkbt website.
I believe WKBT is in a period of substained growth even with the current 25% tax rate they showed very positive eps & cashflow growth that should continue but I.R. needs to do a lot more in getting the word out.
Not all r/merger China stocks are frauds & although no one can be 100% sure on any stock Chinese or U.S. WKBT has given audited results signed off by a respected audit firm & deserves to sell at a p/e ratio higher than 2.something,,,higher than cashflow,,,higher than B.V.etc etc & higher than expected future eps....2011 eps estimate $1.25+ hows that for starter with cash even higher unless they find a good use for available funds & no more stupid private placements please.eom
Traderfan,
I will never understand the Chinese mind.
However if they have been piling up cash to do some acquisitions I think $50M in cash is enough to get something done now.
Why wait for listing before doing a acquisition since very little stock needs be used.
Giving 2011 guidance & then adding a acretive acquisition or two might get the pps moving in the proper direction to faciltate listing.
But these are ideas coming from a American mind so who knows when & what they will do & why.
Keep in mind 3 of 4 new products being added in 2011 are scheduled for launch in the 1st Q.
Last years 1stQ numbers were effected by bad weather so 1st Q growth should be comparible to 4th Q growth numbers.
With the current very strong cashflow & shareholder equity I am very satified with 2010 results.
And with cash up to $50M they are in a great position to do some acretive acquisitions they have been looking at to go with continued strong organic growth.
They get paid up front as a wholesaler of drug products so A/R should remain low.
Im all ears.eom
Traderfan,
I agree,
In fact I have already put further buying in this space on hold until I see a return on investment from some of the stocks I now hold.
Heck a 40% jump in the pps from current levels would give WKBT a p/e around 2.5 on eps of $1.04.
If verified numbers prove correct & WKBT can't muster that much support the risk is not worth the reward in this space.
WKBT did mention that they would report in March when they gave preliminary numbers.
But they have yet to give a release date in March.
If they do verify by audit eps of $1.04 which was also stated at the redchip conference I would think a p/e ratio of at least 5 would be reasonable to expect as the current pps is not even close to making sense if such numbers are indeed true.
Thank you Gary.eom
I still expect 2010 eps of $0.83...
If Gary reads this I would like to hear his updated expectations.
Snow,
My 5 amigos for 2011 "seem" to have great fundamentals but the pps says I made a big mistake in picking [uta wkbt nuin hfgb ckgt].
I will await the 10k's before I depart this space for greener pasture,,,I am not use to losing money by picking paper winners.
Goodbye & good luck, pappy
hsyt$0.206-$0.064 wkbt $1.92-$0.15
Get the picture,,,some stocks that seem to be the most undervalue are getting hit the hardest of late.
Any theory on why this is occuring ahead of audited results.
A stock about to report 2010 eps of $1.04 non-gaap in a few days wouldn't sell for $1.92 today or would it?
Not to mention they expect 30-50% revenue growth this year.
Something is going on in this space that doesn't compute.
Wonder if the SEC is questioning them?
No press release or contact with shareholders just a trading halt pending news.
With this show of lack of respect for current shareholders I can only think bad news is coming. jmho
A small annoucement when 2010 audited numbers will be released would do,,,but then again maybe they don't know anymore.
Any way you look at it a press release to ease investors fears would be nice if good news is indeed coming.
I didn't think ckgt was into advertising on the bus but looking at Fridays action maybe trading should have been halted for news pending. lol
After seeing CCME halted all of my stocks that gave preliminary good numbers for 2010 [UTA WKBT CKGT HFGB] Got especially hard hit.
I believe the market is saying it thinks the news on CCME is auditor related.
It makes little sense for stocks that give good preliminary numbers to get hit the hardest but this market is very scared & only believes audited numbers.
I am starting to get very turned off by stocks that don't perform in spite excellant results & may leave this space if by 1st Q numbers these stocks still don't get any respect.
Until then I will stand with a pat hand.
No I believe it may have to do with preliminary results.
Since the trading halt in CCME r/merger China stocks have dropped.
I believe the reason maybe audit related since some stocks that have given excellant preliminary results seem to be getting hit the hardest.
UTA WKBT CKGT HFGB have all taken hard hits today & they have in common strong 2010 preliminary numbers that the market is not taking at face value without audited numbers.
As for CCME this trading halt may well be auditor related at least thats what the market is saying by punishing those stocks not halted especially those with unaudited 2010 preliminary numbers.
The China r/merger market is in distress now but those that verify good results via audit may see much better days.
Today WKBT saw its p/e ratio drop below 2 on a current basis with 30-50% growth projected for 2011.
Halted pending news event.
I hear you....But what I am saying is $0.07 the low or is it really going to be $-0-.
Without a proper 10k filed by April I would have to say the odds favor $-0-.
At the current pps of $0.08 I intend to continue to hold my shares but I have seen nothing to hang my hat on other than a long shot lotto ticket with jada.
Has anyone been able to communicate with a company representive since they filed their 3rd Q unaudited results that mean absolutely nothing.
JADA has not filed a legit. 10k for 2008-2009-2010.
And the company has remained silent.
I think we should be prepared for a total loss as silence is not a proper response from a public traded company that far behind on their 10k filings.
p.s. I would also like to say that it is in my nature to be positive about stocks I own but I find nothing positive to say about the current outlook for jada. eom
NUIN presented yesterday at the Rodman conference & with earnings due out soon some interest is not a surprise.
Congrads Waverider profits are very hard to come by in this space & when a stock moves watch for a chance to lock in profits before it reverses.
That is a short term projection. If shorts stop scaring the wits out of would be investors I could see at least a $2 target pps on HSYT to bring it back to anything resembling fair value on a intermediate time fraME. JMHO
hsyt.pk vs hfgb.pk after taking a look at their current pps which is preceived as the better value.
Both are much cheaper today & neither seems to have much buying support.
I am thru averaging down in this space as value & growth have no meaning anymore it would seem.
The above 2 are 2 prime examples.
Not trying to be sarcastic but facts don't lie unless these are 2 very big frauds.
At the current time I don't believe they are,,,however when Chinese stocks pay for goods & service by giving Chinese vendors shares instead of the cash they desire.
Or in the case of hsyt.pk insiders sold shares at a higher pps mid 2010,why?
The results are a bitch.
Without any buyer support our sellar is back & willing to sell @ 2xeps.
Seems sad to see hfgb within a nickle of its 52 week low while earnings are at a all time high.
But thats what happens when a company is willing to put put cheap shares in the hands of Chinese merchants who would rather have cash.
HSYT looks very cheap on a value basis however the t/a says the pps could go even lower.
And even looks like its cheaper than CKGT & many others selling at forward p/e's of 2 but the growth is not as proven nor is the stock pps finding a base unless it holds above $0.30.
We are about to enter the March reporting period for "audited" yearend results followed by 1st Q results.
The stocks that report the best results in the 1st Q following audited results from a reliable auditor will probably lead the charge from the current low p/e & pps ratios.
I currently have a 60% cash position awaiting the better 1st Q numbers when reported or guidance given with yearend results.
Meaning lower quality stocks will proably not lead the charge but could have "meaningful" a pps movement after the higher quality stocks move up some. jmho
Strange thing happened yesterday afternoon.
Alot of green started showing up in my Chinese r/merger stocks even wkbt & nuin quit going down while uta & many others had a nice day.
Could it be that the market is starting to realize these companies are going to make a lot of money in 2011 & beyond while the U.S. economy continues to add more debt,print more dollars to cover interest payments & in general comes even closer to that day when the dollar will no longer buy stick of gum but a hundred might buy a loaf of bread.
Its about time for the U.S. dollar to find some investments that can come close to keeping up with inflation & pricing r/mergers that are not frauds at more than 2 &3 times earnings while price U.S. stocks that are not about to grow near as fast at 30 x earnings because U.S. stocks have such a great future,not.