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No change, looks like maybe end of month to finish
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2020-01-01&en=2022-04-29&i=t6444951482c&a=350704571&r=1649670602585
After 3900 we go up in the final C wave of this structure that started 2009, probably till EOY or so
We should start down now with 3900 as target still
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p83313749891&a=307755350&r=1649165818915
The down fork is good again and with the spread A and B anchors, it isn't seen by everyone and their brother. second chart is VIX revised. third is SPX McClellan osc that hit a real extreme yesterday
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p83313749891&a=307755350&r=1648655644333
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24VIX&p=60&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p36377244596&a=227142001&r=1648655769745
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21MCOSIRSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=20&i=p36119805879&a=422149032&r=1648655820574
VIX tagged the lower fork tine, this time up should break that pink upper TL. NAMO is ready for down.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24VIX&p=60&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&i=p95342948371&a=227142001&r=1648169144582
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NAMO&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=20&i=p98294223771&a=238666069&r=1648167937327
SPY 1 hr chart: the simple down forks are messy and can't be trusted. There's a black dotted down channel that's holding still. The two large up forks (blue anchored to Mar, 2020 and the green with the anchor looking for more of a centerline) of the pattern shows yesterday's move up looking to tag the ML of the green fork. If we go up more today it will affect these and need to move a bit. If the upper black dotted channel gets tagged (we're below it now), we'll probably need to pierce it some as well. The bottom target now has moved up to 390
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2020-01-01&en=2022-04-29&i=p64027915769&a=350704571&r=1647507102921&r=1647507741255
We have three fractal H&S formations, I find from history, there is no forth in these fractal patterns.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p83313749891&a=307755350&r=1647267810541
The fork has more than one "fit" however I have it set at just above 3700 now. Today should be labeled as a wave 2 for e wavers and an a of B for s wave and should be the last wave down upon wave 5 or C
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-04-01&i=p44179688905&a=256257406&r=1646778464989
We're forming the right shoulder now. If we drop now it looks right.
SPX 60 chart and below a SPXEW that looks even better. The pink dotted line on the ew chart is the neckline and also a perfect triple tag TL that needs to be taken out.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-04-01&i=p44179688905&a=256257406&r=1646270934600&r=1646271249683
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPXEW&p=60&st=2020-01-01&en=2022-04-29&i=p69150298798&a=416690378&r=1646271448991&r=1646271514527
Does anyone see the head and shoulder formations of the past month on all the indices?
Banks led down wth BKX losing nearly 6% adds some confidence that the down move is intact
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24BKX&p=60&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&i=p77829412739&a=988373326&r=1646169325286
Ravi, Here's a 5 min SPY chart, the fork fits perfect, that's all I can do
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=20&i=p95692335787&a=473093236&r=1645750527650&r=1645750577118
Ravi, One more wave down completes this down move, 3924 is the guess.
After the move down is completed, then larger degree wave C up maybe 8 months in duration is my take.
Thx RCKS, from my wave pattern, I'm convinced this drop will lead to the final C wave up and other than deep retraces for the initial thrusts we don't back down thru the year
SPX 30 chart: the purple fork shows a possible 5 wave (extended B in S wave) with a minimum 1.618 x A = 3924 or lower.
Note: A strong swing up would typically have a run over into the next day
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p79585325340&a=307755350&r=1645737044823&r=1645737197059
It looks like all the indices have took out the Jan low so no HFTOM to count on now. This SPX chart, the blue fork has a good fit and no reason to doubt it and price just tagged the ML and should have went past if a real bottom is in IMO
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t5759171440c&a=307755350&r=1645725276348
So much for a big move up, I think it's possible to retrace to the ML around 4230 as the most
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p83313749891&a=307755350&r=1645713201634&r=1645713803032
Let's lower that target to 456 and change
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&st=2022-01-03&en=2022-02-28&i=t2482006102c&a=423085093&m=o&r=1645648447870
I think I see a big jump coming, my SPy 30 min chart with a run up to 460 by EOM. The fork fits, best I can do
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&st=2022-01-03&en=2022-02-28&i=t4457260060c&a=423085093&r=1645643257574
DJA took out the Jan low today
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24DJA&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p63090297665&a=307251326&r=1645574936109&r=1645575010235
Ravi, Just some rambling first. Calling an accurate bottom along with an accurate timeframe sounds like an options play, keep in mind 9 out of 10 options are losers and 9 times as many have gone broke than became wealthy. Even when you have a good idea of the bottom and timeframe, when there's real money involved it becomes more difficult and the casino has a way of relieving that cash burden.
The first chart has two parallel black lines and also two down forks that all seem to be pointing to end of Feb or a couple days into March.
Second chart from the drop in 2018 has some lines, the two purple related to the real drops are somewhat similar so far to what we are in currently.
I have the start of the complete wave pattern starting third week of Nov, but the C wave started in the first week of Jan and is more relevant as far as parallel drops of the first chart.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2020-01-01&en=2022-06-30&i=p80489172538&a=350704571&r=1644665616737&r=1644666004216
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=120&st=2018-09-03&en=2019-02-01&i=p66557041278&a=1112107074&r=1644667231248&r=1644667362738&r=1644667726662&r=1644668647552
This could be a top, with CPI tomorrow at 8:30
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p83313749891&a=307755350&r=1644442917473
Hi Nasa, That's a good guess. I'll use the SPY chart with an extra couple months of future chart for this. The red down fork median line is the best I have to offer.After this up move is completed it may be more clear.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2020-01-01&en=2022-06-30&i=p80489172538&a=350704571&r=1643969305551&r=1643969455121
SPX 30, we need to break 4600 and that trend line now, next best fork fit is at about 4622
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p83313749891&a=307755350&r=1643842041394&r=1643842171892
No, here's my 60 min chart with a bottom below 4000, from there we go higher
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p36533534694&a=256257406&r=1643732714502&r=1643733370800
SPX 30 minute, I'm going to call this up move finished
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p83313749891&a=307755350&r=1643813403696
Another chart, that dotted pink line will be taken out, it's already above 5000 now.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p36533534694&a=256257406&r=1643737167648
Hi RCKS, I'm looking at this as my chart below, the red arrow shows the larger wave pattern and our current position (fractal?) is the red circle and needs to complete the drop and go up in wave C.
I gave up trying to envision what events will cause what in the market and try to simply read the wave pattern, whether wrong or right. I'm wrong my share of the time though.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=240&st=2009-01-01&i=p02152575865&a=694736817&r=1643736359312&r=1643737245107
SPX 60 minute: This wave that started Jan 24 has a look like it is not a 4th wave (or a c of B in S wave) and would have a longer down move. This should move the bottom target down and I have it set at below 4000 now. It looks like this up movement is petering out and may be the top.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p36533534694&a=256257406&r=1643732714502&r=1643733370800
Mid and IWM both made lower lows than the 24th and the bottom needs to have the others follow.
SPY 3 min into Friday. Very steep rise, but the c = a x 1.618 and the fork is pointing at spy 460.5
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=3&st=2022-01-21&en=2022-01-28&i=p92134856716&a=1103482001&r=1643230369137
SPX longer term chart: I have marked what I consider to be like wave pattern from 2015-2016 and what I call a c of B. The ending wave starting in late 2015 had an extended b of C (5 wave for e wavers) and if it repeats (which I think it will) we should go up today and maybe tomorrow and drop into the final. I have an SPX 5 min chart below that with my take
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=240&st=2009-01-01&i=p02152575865&a=694736817&r=1643188311714
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=5&st=2022-01-04&en=2022-01-31&i=p72612380365&a=390542054&r=1643188597014&r=1643188633910&r=1643188673702
SPX 1 hr with target now just below 4200, I think this will be the minimum down and may be as low as 4000
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p96655795229&a=256257406&r=1642719239464
Here's SPY 30 to take a look at that pink trend line needing to be taken out
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p16416136919&a=423085093&r=1641988029848&r=1641988121587
Two charts to consider:
SPX 30 min, the pink trend line above seems to be needed to be taken out before hitting the down target
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p83313749891&a=307755350&r=1641987364982&r=1641987513252
NYA 30, any more up and a new high is in order:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYA&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p60873475391&a=308509355&r=1641987874727
Here's another view with that in mind:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p71752003698&a=412962100&r=1641987104354
Here it is (QQQ) with a purple down fork looking good right now. We'll see if it holds.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p71752003698&a=412962100&r=1641927555319
OEX: looking for a tag of the BB ML tomorrow, then more down
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p35856535889&a=349300245&r=1641863227199&r=1641863308316
OEX (S&P 100) didn't make it above the pink line, needs at least one more push up
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p35856535889&a=349300245&r=1640371197033