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Zeev, what are your thoughts on Gibson's new movie in a sentence or two as I know this is not stock related? It's the talk of the town but I really haven't followed why.
Zeev, thanks for the detailed response to my somewhat detailed questions. Looks like a bit of a G&C today so far.
Zeev, if you'll indulge a few questions on "the wind" in the AH?
1) While you keep confirming your bearish stance, we keep hanging around that 2088 number and the futes look like we will be right there tomorrow morn. baring any real bad econ news tomorrow morn (which could happen - claims, PPI). Do you think this is mostly OPEX related and we'll turn back down again or are you shedding your bear suit shortly?
2) If we take 2088 on a close with volume, what are the chances we take that 2390 fork you have mentioned in the past before going below 2000 again?
3) What percent cash are you now and if we take 2088 on the close with volume what percent cash do you plan on being?
Thanks.
A little closer to LODs than 2064 Canny (like NTES).
INTC and QQQ stayed in your range though.
Wow, how low do you think the NAS gets on this fall?
Really? 2064 gone now baby.
Although they could bring it back but I'm starting to think this dip won't be bought.
Zeev, does this add up to red or green on the indices by EOD in turnipland?
Not so sure about that Canny - that was a far less than expected CC#, trade deficit expanding, precipitous fall in dollar - not too many positives for today other than of course Valentine's Day is tomorrow.
DELL is one stock people seem to want higher after earnings. Although DELL has seriously underperformed the NAS over the last 6 months so maybe it's priced right (did I just say a stock was priced right today?). It's the only stock in this environment that is allowed to just make their numbers and not increase guidance and not get killed.
Zeev, on the 2088 resistance scenario. Could you provide a bit more clarity here? Do you think if we close decently past 2088, let's say 2100, do you think 2163 is in the cards and if so, what next? Is it straight to 2390 potentially or do you still feel strong about the "back to 1900" scenario regardless of if we get to 2100 or 2163?
Thanks.
Does this mean, we shouldn't be eating chicken for a while?
We've stayed away from Ground Beef since mad cow but wondering about chicken. Our salmon isn't even safe anymore. Pretty soon, we won't be able to eat anything the way this is going.
Seriously, is there a concern over chicken?
As long as you bring it up the soft "prevent" defense with a minute left in the game was an even bigger mistake than the 2-point conversion attempt with 12 minutes left in the game.
As soon as I saw Brady coming back on the field with 1:04 left in the game and only needing a field goal I said "the biggest mistake they can make now is to play prevent defense because that is plenty of time to get into field goal range - they should blitz the hell out of Brady and not let up."
And Kasay kicking the ball out of bounds was unforgiveable. Panthers easily could have won this game without those 3 big mistakes...
Not so fast - guidance was crap for JCOM.
Looks like Q1 guidance is rough for PSFT and stock seems to have been halted or just not trading for the rest of AH session. Think this may be rough tomorrow.
Looks like it - they did $185M in license which is right about where the analyst models were. Let's see what Q1 guidance is like.
Where are those PSFT earnings? Don't expect them to be bad but very surprised they are not out yet with a con. call in 15 minutes.
Ask and you shall receive - 10,640 here we come.
I think Koikaze is a bit more up to date than Kayaker on following the turnips.
Close on the Highs in Progress...
Thanks, and does Equity P/C reading of under .4 have any significance in your turnips today?
Equity P/C at .4 and falling under all day. Significant at all on OPEX day or do you just ignore it today?
How high do you think we go next week before turning down if you still think we are in the turning down leg?
I think the fork you were leaning to recently had a bottom in the mid 1800's which is quite steep from here even though earnings and econ reports are generally looking strong.
Thanks.
I heard Bush speak early this morning and was touting the decrease in unemployment from 5.9% to 5.7%. He made no mention of non-farm payrolls which is a far more comprehensive and inclusive survey of millions of workers that the silly unemployment rate which surveys 60,000 random households:
The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period which includes the 12th of each month.
Funny how the terror alert was lowered today as well.
Hey Bearmove, when you get a chance can you shed any color on my question below? Feel free to answer is as much or little detail as you feel comfortable.
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Bearmove, when you predict a 20% decline in the stock market for 2004 should I assume you mean on 12/31/04 we will be 20% lower than we were on 1/1/04 or do you think we just get a 20% drop at some time during the year? You also mention getting short 2/3 way through earnings season. Does that mean you expect to get short around end of January and if so will you scale into let's say a 100% short position?
Whereas Zeev is bearish right now but still 25-50% long, what will be your plan?
Thanks.
Bearmove, when you predict a 20% decline in the stock market for 2004 should I assume you mean on 12/31/04 we will be 20% lower than we were on 1/1/04 or do you think we just get a 20% drop at some time during the year? You also mention getting short 2/3 way through earnings season. Does that mean you expect to get short around end of January and if so will you scale into let's say a 100% short position?
Whereas Zeev is bearish right now but still 25-50% long, what will be your plan?
Thanks.
Bearmove, I know you expect a 20% decline for the overall market in 2004 which definitely puts you in the minority. You are 80% cash and I believe have some shorts so are you 20% short now or 10% long and 10% short or what?
Also, how will you play this expected 20% decline? i.e. what is your roadmap for the year?
Thanks.
2:22 coming up - volume tailed off a bit after the open. We could turn down here.
Equity p/c coming back down now although this indicator hasn't proven to be very valuable as of late. Last week albeit on low volume we had very low equity p/c readings and market still grinded up and last couple of days we have had quite high equity p/c readings and market still grinds up.
Equity p/c steady at around .40 AJ. If we close at these levels does this impact your short term bullish scenario?
thanks
Thanks Augie, I actually did see that post on the MDA thread but I was trying to get a time frame and LG typically gives his thoughts in "rhymes and riddles" which take a little more time to interpret than Zeev who just spells out specifically with price targets and time frames what he expects to happen. Now neither is right all the time but I believe both are worth watching as they seem to be more right than wrong. I think LG gives himself a little more room for interpretation is all and sometimes I drive for a bit more detail if amenable.
LG, if I read you right, it looks like you are still expecting a correction like Zeev. Could you fill in the details of your road map for those of us anxious to hear it?
Like what levels do we get to, when, for how long?
Thanks.
Saddam Captured. Will the market rocket from this or gap and crap?
http://www.cnn.com/
I also believe the owner of this board isn't big on "policing" and the number of political posts vs. valuable market related posts (from the same people by the way) on this board are minimal so if you're looking for a "pure" site perhaps you should remove your bookmark?
Which other way do you jump from a cliff? (g)
Why do I have the feeling NTES is perched on the cliff right now and ready to jump?
SOX cracks 500...
Funny how there is still really no fear. Everyone has a level not more than a couple percent from where we are that will commence the upturn. One of these dips is going to go a lot further than most expect.
No momentum? For sure? Just blew through the LODs.
If I were Karl Rove...
I would work to get the most beatable dem candidate a groundswell of support and then pull the rug out from under him when it gets closer to the election. This is why you haven't heard the republicans taking down any of the dem hopefuls yet. I guarantee Rove has some great character assasinating gems ready to fly when his dem proxy gains momentum.
It's dirty and that is politics. Too bad the dems ability to fight fire with fire left with Clinton. They're never going to win bringing knives to gunfights (Before Sean Connery is murdered, The Untouchables).
INTC mid-quarter update:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031204/45679_1.html
May not like the $600M charge or they expected more upside vs. narrowing of range in revenue figures.
Stock down over a buck from today's high and qqq dropping fast.
Syl, I'd like to see this chart compared with population growth. I know Nevada was the #1 state in population growth of 66% from 1990 - 2000 according to the census and the next fastest growing state was Arizona at 40%.
Dollar getting pretty low... Has to weigh on the market.