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Sox/Ndx. Did manage to get a Sar buy but inconclusive imo.
Thanks. Got it there. If the bear is back {inconclusive} can go much lower.
I knew that and currently in puts. Short fuel should be waning. We'll see if the bulls really want to initiate new positions into a weakening economy.
What's bugging me is the Sto cross. Adx and Macd not there yet.
Ndx/Indu ratio. Shows defensive is still the name of the game. If this is another leg up in ongoing Bull Ndx should begin leading Dow for more than a couple/few days.
Can you try that again?
Edited. Been stung before with that configuration. 13, 8, 3 Sto turning up and MA crossover.
An old post from last year. Maybe we both got stung there?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8328948&txt2find=nasi+
Fundamentally based. I think no win for a bit for the bulls.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12776267
Nasi, Bpcompq admittedly becoming worrisome. If not reversed next week I'm probably wrong in my take.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NASI&p=W&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63992213707
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70963153719
If you think the seasonal low came in Aug.
I don't think it has arrived yet. Oct. again?
Your wave analysis has gotten very good. Frankly you called this rally and i did not believe we could surmount that much resistance in such a short time.
That resistance is still there IMO, waiting for a reason to sell.
Learned in years past that Sept/Oct typically have some big downdrafts. But, when the bottom of that period arrives equally large upside.
Moral of the story is if short into seasonal weakness, don't overstay your welcome and don't reshort the rallies coming out of seasonal lows.
I don't know. I'm sure tho that I need my data in a simpler form. I'm probably the one who's thick lol.
I like the chart form for a quick easy to understand and compare to the Spx format.
Truth is I gave up on that link within a minute.
Thoughtful charts. Euphoria this week but soon they price in the weakening economy. If it so happens the data is stronger than I expect...the Fed comes back on the table.
Hi ya Tea/eminimee, LOL.
Read all your stuff either IHub or TT.
Hadn't looked at that for awhile but thought the correlation was interesting. Seems it has an effect on liquidity which finds it's way into the market.
I'm looking for evidence of this rally being primarily short squeeze driven. Given that we face a weakening economy and corporate earnings are likely at peak levels I don't see the need to initiate new longs by the big money players.
Check out the candle Fri. http://www.litwick.com/indicators/1254.html
Interesting divergence here. Market has followed the red line in lower chart rather reliably.
25 million short shares of QQQQ covered Fri. A 17% decrease in shorted shares from prior day.
Turning out to be a massive squeeze.
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=qqqq&submit=Enter
Here's the E Mini's. A different picture here as longs were reduced and shorts increased. Bullish % at a 4 week low.
Small specs and hedge funds scrambling to cover imo.
Went to that chart URL. Looks like seasonality is on my side for a short position here/close to here. Sept. 3/4 to Sept 27/28 may be a better focus time tho.
Obviously, patience is not my virtue.
Entered 1/2 short at close since I have a hunch there may be some unwinding of opex related long positions Monday.
Now it's just waiting intraday for either 1540 area long or 1590+ short. Most likely we get neither. I'll study that 1550 area here momentarily.
Wait for the long entry.
If they sell it down to the top of the last gap I'll join you long for a bit.
A bit wedgie lol. NDX is getting near a shorting opp. imo 1590-1600 and I get back in QID, with a 2% stop.
Yep, stopped out. I dropped a couple percent but could have been worse.
It indicates excessive bullishness by retail investors.
Try this link later after it updates and correspond that with what happened at the extremes against an index chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80349862641
Bounce hell, this is a Tsunami!
Nice conviction fella's. Had to have been miseable being leveraged long some days.
If I computed correctly .520 EOD.
2:30 .514
2:00 .526
If so, would you expect the lower channel line to be hit after the C finishes?
Gotta confess I don't understand what all the buying is about. It's by no means sure the Fed is done and even if they were we still have a weakening economy. Of which nobody knows the extent of.
Resembles a bear market rally if you asked me.
Volume really picking up on QID. If it doesn't put in a double bottom at 70 tomorrow I'll be stopped out.
Yep, doing alot of that lately. I'd like to hold this into next month but am heavily leveraged so am determining stop now.
Back to short here at 1528.
Nice falling wedge. This bear agrees.
Ted Burge chart
Been hard on the shorts too. Out to cash for the weekend. Looks like more down on the charts but sentiment suggests the shorts get scorched first.
NDX 1530 again?
Perhaps what the market fears is if another shoe were to drop.
n83, I think what matters here is the extent of economic slowdown in the works. Bulls think GDP 3% annualized, bears betting on something deeper.
I think below 3% and possibly negative for some part of 2007, i.e. a mild recession.
It's about support and resistance, and price is seeking support.
Maybe not yet. The past two weeks it seems price is seeking it's inflection point. Fri. may have been it or it could be retested over the next 2-3 trading days IMO.
On another subject. The Fed on Tues. is likely to be a no win situation for the Bulls. They've mostly taken or will take long positions ahead of the news and nervous bears will be out.
Only thing left is to sell the news.
Is your bullishness fundamental or technical? I'm open to supported contrary opinion.
Where do you think we're headed over the next 3 months?
Mad, given that we don't know how much slowing is in the economy already, and we don't know how much more the Fed thinks we need, all I see is a technical rally here.
I think institutional money with a choice waits out until visibility improves.
Seasonality also doesn't support a high volume takeoff yet. August is historically the worst month for the Spx.