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Looks like SGLB also thinks these are the lows and a great buying opportunity. They just registered $500K worth of options shares.
Things are looking pretty good for SGLB as long as sales come in when they anticipate they will.
I find it interesting that Aegis doesn't even mention GE Aviation as competition for IPQA. And Rice plainly states that there is no comparable competition. The patents are worth their weight in gold. In spite of those here who claim they are worthless. I guess they never heard of lawyers working a case contingent on being paid from damage award proceeds. But whatever. Rice states the patents are a mote around the tech. That is a huge accomplishment. I doubt we will see any company pursuing a competitive position for sensor based IPQA tech. I think SGLB is it.
I strongly believe we are good to go here. If the metal AM industry will move into the PR3D tech in the time frame Rice thinks they should, SGLB will grow fast and we are going to reap a very nice windfall from this investment. And for once, I am in agreement with RFB. If retail would get on with it, this thing will move up. If you want to buy, hit the ask. If you want to sell, hit the bid. This crap about being on both sides of the line at the same time, or dipping a toe in the book is amateur small-ball all the way. Either buy or sell and get out of the way. And man what a buying opportunity. SGLB thinks so, Schwartz thinks so, and the longs who have been here for some time now think so. Things got out of hand with the bashing, and now we know clearly the reality is very much better than that. I don't know which is worse; too much caution, or too little. But if you aren't buying now, good luck to you.
All the best,
Silversmith
It seems to me that we are finally there.......that dramatic moment every startup comes to at some point, where the company will either succeed or fail. One or the other outcome is about to become prominent.
I am betting that PR3D is being adopted as the IPQA tech of the EU. I will even go out on a limb and say that the EU will acquire SGLB for themselves. I think the metal AM powers that be in the EU have put out marching orders and a plan to embed PR3D in the manufacturing process as their IPQA solution, and a consortium will provide liquidity for the purchase of SGLB by one of their systems supplier companies.
All the best,
Silversmith
Looks like Rice and team have gotten the message that investors can take this company down. We will be seeing quarterly calls again, and more clarity on exactly how things are going with sales efforts from SGLB. I think this is good for all. I think the new CFO has been instrumental in turning the boat in that department. I also think he is responsible for the change in the IR firm. All in all, I can't wait to hear more.
All the best,
Silversmith
I never owned any ONVO windbag, but you watch, ONVO will cease to be a company before too much longer. They are going down.
All the best,
Silversmith
You guys are nuts with your conspiracy theories.
Of course SGLB PR'd the Airbus news hoping to raise the share price. That would have meant the cash raise would have used up less shares, diluted less and kept additional wiggle room in the unused authorized pile. That's the rational sense. But the Airbus news was swamped by day traders and probably some large shareholders selling into it to lighten their load. So it didn't work out. There would have been no way to know that ahead of time. You take your chances. But the cash raise was going to happen. It was a done deal. But you couldn't price it before hand if you wanted the Airbus news in it. So after the market puked on the raise news, the rest was history and here we are. There is no magic to it.
All the best,
Silversmith
I really don't think and feel things are bleak for SGLB. The company did what it had to with the offering. The market threw a huge fit over it. But things aren't materially worse for SGLB. In fact, the Airbus trial is big news. When you add up all the little and not so little dribbles of incentive option shares obligated, and the possible 15% over-subscription shares, and the a fully sold offering, we are at 18.9500 million shares issued or ear-marked. With an authorized of 22.5000 million shares, SGLB has room for one more offering at a later date. So there is probably financing capable of keeping things going into the middle of 2021. That should be good enough. If the metal AM industry hasn't gotten its act together enough for IPQA by then, the story is over anyway.
But we have now met the shareholder equity hurdle for NASDAQ. Now SGLB has to get the share price back above a buck. That should happen with a decent announcement.
So basically I see all this all as much ado about nothing much. Things haven't really changed for the SGLB story at the moment. The market had an overblown reaction to the drama. It's a good buying opportunity. Now we need to see continued overtures from the metal AM industry that they are going to go with IPQA technology. If that happens we should be good to go.
All the best,
Silversmith
Just checked back in here. Looks crazy. Lol.
But there isn't really a mystery here. Money doesn't grow on trees. And SGLB needs money to clear the NASDAQ share holder equity hurdle, and to keep pushing on the industry with PR3D. It is a shitty place to be for everyone involved, including Rice and the new CFO. Its that same old small business/startup issue.....not enough of anything....people,money,time,resources,sales, everything.
But the Airbus and secondary offering events aren't the same thing. They are two different things. They both are intended to move the company down the road though. It simply is what it is at this point. But most won't see it that way around here. So there will be lots more bashing around here for sure. Traders owned the day here. And they got it right, or made it right, whichever. But the industry is turning toward PR3D. They just aren't yet in a place to commit large amounts of money on any IPQA system yet. But its coming. The question will be just how diluted will SGLB's stock be by then.
All the best,
Silversmith
You got that right Max. They are wrong, and in the end it will cost them.
The constant belittling of SGLB and their team as bumbling incompetents is stupendously wrong headed. There aren't any games being played here. You don't get to work with the likes of the industry titans that SGLB is, and has been working with, unless you are the real deal smart and competent and serious about it.
All the best,
Silversmith
This is beautiful. The EU continues to embrace SGLB. Airbus is a huge deal. PR3D has been being watched and evaluated by many now. There aren't that many unknowns about PR3D among the well versed AM engineering world. They are aware of SGLB and have been talking about it all for a little while now. Airbus will be going into this pretty well knowledgeable about PR3D's performance capabilities. This is a conscious, rational decision to get SGLB on board by Airbus. Nice job SGLB. Congratulations.
All the best,
Silversmith
I remember when the list had no institutional holders at all. I know a few ETFs are holding shares as well. All in all, I would say this thing is wound pretty tight. Any news either way will really cause the dust to fly. Sitting tight, waiting. The payoff could be huge.
All the best,
Silversmith
While QC Lab, and Sintavia for that matter, is a small firm that only does post process inspection, I agree that the industry has now pretty much turned their focus to the quality control aspect of production. It won't be long now. SGLB will start to fly.
All the best,
Silversmith
Oh that's smart. So how does gold get priced? Never saw any cash flow from gold. How does oil get priced? How does millions upon millions of things get a price associated with it? You are still far from understanding this.
All the best,
Silversmith
I guess the subject matter was maybe a little too deep and obscure for some of you.
Lets try this... google 'behavioral science public narrative impacting stock prices'.
Take a look at the over 93 million hits you will get.
Perhaps the one about 'weapons of mass narrative persuasion' will peak your curiosity.
You guys are exactly what I'm talk'n about. You can't get your head beyond anything except a sure thing. It'l be too late then though.
All the best,
Silversmith
For those SGLB investors who really do think for themselves, and can see what is happening in the industry, how SGLB is pretty much methodically evolving, and believe SGLB is winning the position of IPQA for the industry, rest easy a little bit. It is coming. Sure there is risk. But it will likely take a black-swan event to derail the outcome.
For our posters on the other side of the isle, who are dogmatically insistent that the only defining element of an asset's price is actual cash on the books, who repeatedly state that if SGLB's product was so good whole masses of people and money would flow into the asset, y'all definitely don't come from the real financial or behavioral science world.
The reason for SGLB's share value being stuck where it is because of the public space narrative. For years the public space largely consisted of this board. That is changing.
But if you don't think the chronic bashing doesn't play a part, you are wrong. The single determinate of any non-cash-flow asset's price is the narrative. Always has been. And even when hard numbers are public in a mature asset, the narrative still plays a significant role.
So why is SGLB's company value less than $15M, when the probable outcome will be significant? It is because of you.
All the best,
Silversmith
I just got a look at some photos of the new PR3D 5.0 version. The whole thing looks very good. Really good. This has become a polished product. An engineer told me that SGLB is becoming entrenched. When the industry talks about IPQA, they all know SGLB is a serious player. I don't know what the timing for IPQA full production adoption is, but I don't believe there is any stopping the SGLB train. I get the sense from talking to industry people that when IPQA is fully integrated into production, it will be SGLB's stuff.
All the best,
Silversmith
Even wick should have, and probably did know, that Sciaky is not competition for SGLB. EBAM is a whole other animal. Sciaky competition is GE. I'm sure the Sciaky investors are counting the number of times GE is listed on OEM websites and crying the blues too. Lol. What a crop we have here.
All the best,
Silversmith
You make a mockery of the life's work and effort of many worthy people. Doesn't say much for yourself.
All the best,
Silversmith
I saw it wick.
Along with some other snippets and interviews and activity, what people here are not understanding is that the industry doesn't really want a bolt-on software platform for this function and that function in order to do reliable metal printing.
The industry wants, and is putting together as we speak, a complete, seamless, from beginning to end, from modeling to finished product,manufacturing platform.
We will see a fully integrated platform solution for the complete printing process when this is all done.
I am guessing there will be two of them. The EU will contain PR3D, and the USA will contain GE with a license from SGLB. How Honeywell fits into all this I don't know. I guess they will use SGLB.
All the best,
Silversmith
SGLB is in a very good position for success. The industry knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that software assistance is required for metal AM. GE isn't going to spend thousands of man hours and millions of dollars developing their version of IPQA. And Europe has opened its arms to SGLB collaboration. IPQA in the metal AM industry is a done deal.
So how will it play out?
I have long said that the USA is screwing around and falling behind in metal AM technology compared to the EU. We will probably see that SGLB's patent portfolio is a big part of how this plays out. GE will need it in order to continue with IPQA without the risk of future huge damage payments. And SGLB's suite of products in IPQA is being embraced by the EU as competition to GE.
Materialize concluded that PR3D is the IPQA to incorporate into its platform. Siemens concurs. Basically the EU has concluded that SGLB is the IPQA platform to go forward with.
So before long someone will buy SGLB for the patents and the product. And I don't think the EU will let GE do it.
This company is very, very undervalued in market cap. The current crop of investors that move the stock in the wind don't understand the bigger picture at all. They think nothing is happening and the company is going nowhere. One day you will wake up and find that the landscape for SGLB isn't anything like what it has been. The correction will be big and rapid.
All the best,
Silversmith
The view from thirty thousand feet looks different from the view on the ground where you dig for any little bit of information about SGLB and PR3D being incorporated into 3D print manufacturing.
Materials engineers, Quality engineers, Production and Process engineers, and the entities that provide oversight, are different ducks. They are all dogmatic, rigid, conservative, cautious, doubtful, consistent, very intelligent people. They have to be. Nature generally doesn't like it when things are bent to our human will in manufacturing. You basically have to make a manufacturing process do what it does to yield a successful process step or finished part. Nature constantly tends to alter the manufacturing process in ways that yield unintended things. Engineers have to constantly be on guard for the anomalies that nature injects into manufacturing processes. I have worked with these people in industry my entire career; on the production floor and in the conference rooms. They do not take change lightly. It is a very serious business to them.
So to think that SGLB can just overnight make the world embrace a completely new way of doing critical part production inspection with IPQA, within a very complex, new-born industry still feeling its way is erroneous thinking. It is a mighty big ship, called The-Entire-History-of-Human-Manufacturing that has to be turned from its one hundred plus years of momentum and dogma course. But the ship does indeed look to be veering. A lot is happening. Things are coming together. And with the patents SGLB is coming to be a respected company at the table because it carries a bigger and bigger stick.
Forget about what was the last four years. Things are getting real interesting right now. Things are about to happen; yet it will all be at engineering's pace.
All the best,
Silversmith
They must have gotten paid by someone. The Dec 2018 Q, when they fell below the NASDAQ shareholder equity hurdle, had equity at 1,735,439. They took in a net $535,000 from Schwartz this month. And the May 2019 Q has equity at $2,485,712. $215,273 came from somewhere. I'd say one or more rapid members bought.
And the 20% upfront isn't the number you have wrong Outlook.
All the best,
Silversmith
The only thing Rice ever said in public was that SGLB gets an 'upfront fee' to get the rapid test started. He never stated a dollar amount.
All the best,
Silversmith
You have no idea. All you do is spew emotion.
All the best,
Silversmith
JR never said anything in public about how much money exchanges hands for the rapid trials. The source for that is someone else.
And I am not giving this board any new information about future events.
All the best,
Silversmith
Way off.
All the best,
Silversmith
Your numbers are wrong.
All the best,
Silversmith
Rice states in the Q that they have cash for operations and continued product enhancement/development through 2019.
All the best,
Silversmith
Looks like they have cleared the NASDAQ equity hurdle. Other than lack of sales, which is certainly a biggie, not too bad. And it looks like they have more income from the trials coming yet.
All the best,
Silversmith
Including the incentive program options shares, the converted preferred, and the newest Schwartz sale, SGLB still has over seven million shares in the authorized that are not issued or registered.
All the best,
Silversmith
The 'down payment' you keep referring to is actually an upfront 20% payment to SGLB. 20% of the cost of PR3D is paid to SGLB non-refundable to cover the efforts and cost of SGLB for the trial.
All the best,
Silversmith
And of course, out of fear, you can only imagine that moving the calendar time frame for the annual meeting is somehow connected to shenanigans, corruption, lack of accountability. But it is more probably in order to enable more people to more easily travel to the meeting. No one wants to travel to New Mexico in what is nearly wintertime with the holidays staring you in the face.
All the best,
Silversmith
I don't know why you are so wound up about this chef. They have something like two months to submit a plan to become compliant. And if accepted they have something like six months from then to make good on it. Don't quote me on the time line limits, but it something like that. They are not going to be delisted. Period.
In any case, no this direct purchase is about $230K short of the NASDAQ hurdle.
All the best,
Silversmith.
I really like that the shareholder count is climbing. It takes a lot of holders to make a normal market for a stock. We are probably getting there, slowly but surely. The metal AM industry needs it. They will start pulling the tech in for production, and demand will grow from there. With a growing shareholder base, the surge will probably be breathtaking.
All the best,
Silversmith
Lol. That's a good one windbag.
We don't need to try to read too much into this. It is the trend among many companies. And it is the wish for all the rest.
All the best,
Silversmith
Absolutely there is. But now they will have to work more for it. Now there is the chance that good information will be the domain of a smaller group of people. Stay knowledgeable about your company. Work the investigative research to know as well as you can where the company and the tech are, and are likely to be in the future. Make valid conclusions about the current and future demand for the product. Make valid market cap calculations for where the company is, and where it is likely to go. Make a decision whether you want to own shares and the company, are just giving it a fling, or want to trade it. In short, stay in the know. Own it if you want to own it. But don't be apathetic about it.
All the best,
Silversmith
The most relevant piece of information in the letter is that we now have over 7000 investors in the float. That is a pretty big jump from the 500 or so from a couple years ago.
And again, SGLB's passive, amateur investors get pushed a little further outside the loop. Soon you will be out altogether. I am okay with the change. It doesn't really matter since I talk to Rice anyhow. But it is another instance of SGLB's shareholders not 'owning' the company.
My bet is the next PR will be announcing a new issue of preferred shares. My bet is SGLB went back to Schultz and gang and asked if they would do it again. SGLB needs to comply with the NASDAQ shareholder equity hurdle. Then they announced the preferred were converted and the common registered for market. Then they announced the DARPA PR3D confirmation. Then the shares made a move of strength that was just as strongly sold into, resulting in no gain. Then the same happened yesterday. It has to be the converted preferred common coming into the market. So the preferred holders were able to get 10% interest on the preferred, followed by conversion and a successful sell into strength at a profit. So now they can buy another round of preferred to capitalize SGLB for the NASDAQ hurdle.
All the best,
Silversmith
That's what all startups do, since the beginning of time. They all have the same issues of not enough time, not enough people, not enough money, not enough anything. They all suck up huge amounts of capital, work employees to death, cobble things together and generally seem to just beat their heads against a wall before they reach success. You can't expect anything different. It has never been different.
And SGLB has been pretty doggone frugal. My hat is off to them for that. So I see a tech that is very, very promising, a company trying to do its best, its products exposed to the kings of the industrial world, a game changing method of manufacturing, global in perspective, being surrounded by patents, and still beating their heads against the wall with effort, and I want to own it. As much as I can get. Because it is more than likely going to be a many, many, many year's stream of returns for me.
All the best,
Silversmith
The action so far today is what I have been talking about. SGLB doesn't have investors. They have flippers. New comes out, flippers dash in looking for their nickel, then get right back out when the move slows and stops. And lots of the people here too are doing it. Rather than wanting to own the company, they just want to show a paper drop in the cost of their underwater 'core' position. They don't care about owning the company, or the tech, or the IP. They aren't owners. It will take owners to price the company properly. Ownership is a whole other mentality.
All the best,
Silversmith
I am really confused by that Simply Wall Street article about changing sentiment driving SGLB down 95%.
If you do the math for a 95% drop to where we are now, you would have had to start at $29.00 per share. Is the author seriously looking at things since the very top of the 3D print bubble? I guess so.
Seems meaningless to me.
All the best,
Silversmith
The 64 million dollar question blinko.
I have long been shouting on this board that investors have not been valuing the IP and tech properly. All they seem to want to see is revenue and profit on the books before they will tally the income, measured to the penny, and hold their breath while they hit the buy button. And there are many here that will never buy despite what any numbers might show.
But I have come to believe that SGLB for the most part doesn't have investors. The company has traders that dabble at or flip shares.
I believe it will be a completely new, more savvy, group of investors moving into SGLB that will properly value the tech and IP.
When studying SaaS companies in general, the average multiples are about 15x. More than a handful of them have much higher multiples based mostly upon both their rate of growth, and the extent of the possible playing field for them.
My feeling is that SGLB should be priced at $100-150 million right now, just based upon the position of PR3D in the industry. No other IPQA tech is even close to having the high quality exposure to the industry, with the degree of intensity with which PR3D has been subjected. It should be around $200 million when the really big hitter patents are issued. The patents are rapidly digging a big mote around IPQA. All other players will essentially have to go through SGLB to even continue to play in the space. When the first sales come in, then you can determine the significance of the buyer. If sales are with any of the big dogs, then it is reasonable to expect that SGLB will take a significant percentage of the IPQA demand within the metal AM industry. At that point the company should be valued around $280-350 million. With a continuing ramp of new high quality sales we should be around $450 million.
But it will never happen with the current crop of traders in SGLB. I expect savvy investors will move in, move the share price up rapidly and unexpectedly, thereby moving the cost of a meaningful position out of reach for current SGLB followers. The current followers will have had the opportunity taken from them. Their long, hard earned, superior knowledge of SGLB, will have been squandered forever.
And the posters that blast this view are among the very ones who will probably never, ever, buy SGLB shares.
All the best,
Silversmith