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Monster, The reason I posted these charts is because I have noticed a lot of restless chatter here and some bailing out because results aren't instant. This is a time to go fishing or take a vacation, because KMAG is going to reward the patient investor. Of course, for the nimble, trading the base channel is a way to make some change during the wait.
3 charts. The 1st is KMAG with the Stan Weinstein Stage Analysis superimposed. The 2nd chart is of the theoretical Stages set forth by Weinstein. The pictures suggest where we are now. The 3rd chart is an example of how a Long Base pattern typically plays out. The implications of these charts are that KMAG has a fair amount of base forming to complete and patience is suggested.
I just got off the road from a 5 day trip. What is all this talk of an RS? I'm not seeing any news about it. Even companies that RS and don't use the process to dilute get mauled. I have a silver stock with earnings and money in the bank that RS'd to get onto a higher exchange with a price of $2.50. The price imediately began a dive to $1.10. Jaime my old compadre, if there is a RS with KMAG, adios amigo, I am out of here because it is certain that I can come back and get in for at least 50% less.
Very well thought out GreenMan. I would add that we should give Jeff's share buyback a chance. I have difficulty envisioning him bringing the OS down to a managable 150 mil or less, but I am willing to see what the final results are, then contemplate a RS much farther down the line. I see no need to get all worked up about it now though.
Great analysis and chart rand0m. I would add that lurking behind that chart is a (bullish) descending wedge pattern on a bar chart closing price basis that is now testing a breakout to the upside. If we close higher for a couple of days the implications of the wedge and breaking above the channel you illustrated become bullish. But if the wedge is nullified by moving below the apex of the triangle, then not only is the channel valid but there is a strong possibility of drastically traversing the channel.
I'm holding my buy for either outcome.
Arnold! You have been making some amazing, level headed and knowledgable posts. I would trust your conclusions way more than my ramblings.
Hi Jaime. According to this chart we are right on support and believe it or not still in a long term uptrend. I have mentioned that it would be perverse but not surprizing if the market forces would take the price down to make a double bottom or even lower. I referred to the old story of Job because it is a good lesson. If you have faith then perservere adversity and you will be rewarded. So If you believe the Q1 report is reality then keep buying through the decline, or as John Henry JR advised, get some dry powder. There is much negative sentiment now. Remember that is a contrarian buy signal!
If that scenario is what is occurring, ie: mm's lowering the price for the CEO to buy, there should be some big volume during the buying period. If the CEO is buying here, the low volume is indicating that he is not aquiring near enough shares to make a meaningful enough reduction in the virtual OS.
During this process, if we have continued lower closes, a long term uptrend will be broken. If we reach .0035 that could be a double bottom and all talk of a head and shoulders reversal is negated. If we close lower than .0035 we can expect a capitulation panic. Remember the market will do it's best to confound the most people, to humiliate the experts and turn strong hands into weak.
dshade said it best "as soon as you capitulate and sell THAT'S when it will run up." The forces operating here are doing their best to shake out all the faint of heart. You alluded to the sacrifice of Abraham's. Remember also the travails of Job.
For every two technical analysts there are at least 3 opinions. Here are three. The reverse head and shoulders pattern is within days of giving a buy signal. That will occur when we close above the neckline in the 6's. The neckline of the pattern (drawn in light green) also delineates a rising triangle indecision pattern, and we are at the apex of that triangle now. If we break to the upside we are beginning a new uptrend. If we break below the long rising bottoms line, we are in for more downside. The reverse H&S and the triangle patterns are bullish on a statistical basis, but I wouldn't put it past manipulators to break these patterns to the downside momentarily to shake shares out of nervous hands. Should KMAG break into a new bull phase, the primary uptrend channel has a near to intermediate term objective of .01.
Boy do I hear that having bought at .02. Tomorrow is a big day, the timing of the news and conclusion of the chart pattern coincide. Tungtung said it well, the stars and eclipse all aligned. Goodnight and good fortune to you.
As of today I'm all in tungtung. The buy signal is actually above the neckline around .006 so I jumped the gun and could technically be called a pumper.
Well masterlu, it looks like up from here. I am so glad to say that after all these weeks of seeing downward indicators. I put my money where my chart is and bought on the dip today. The reverse head and shoulders has a high percentage of accuracy. If it doesn't work out I'll print the chart and eat it (metaphorically)
I would like to join the chorus and thank you Master for the great research you do. The fundamentals are everything. The chart is just a tool for timing.
stlsmitty, sorry for the late reply. We are sitting right on top of the 100. The 200 at .0079 once surpassed could be support for the run to .01 and remotely possible as a retracement level if .01 offers resistance. The volume is the key indicator when news breaks. If there is one of those 25% jumps, moving averages and charts have to be re evaluated.
A couple of more days and this chart will be complete. Overcomming the .006-.0064 resistance will generate an intermediate to long term limited risk technical buy signal as price passes the neck line of the reverse head and shoulders pattern. According to this pattern we are in the last days of the .005s and a new bull phase for KMAG is about to commence. It is uncanny how the chart is so synchronous to the expectation of news. If there should be a dip tomorrow it will be a gift to buyers. But anyone arguing that we will break .004-.0035 is fighting statistical probability.
I agree with you pistol 100%. I have been rooting for the "killer contract" Then KMAG will rise out of pink land and the large OS will be met with large investments of institutions and others. OS is important but I do believe that the big investors interested in long term look at the market capitalization. So Jeff's goal of maintaining .10 making a higher market cap and moving to a higher exchange is an important goal. Fingers crossed.
I hope a lot has changed since the last run to .025. Many have surmised that the last run was propelled to parabolic by certain holders who aquired a large amount of the OS, and their subsequent selling brought the price back down. Hopefully they are not playing now. But with no deep pocket manipulators pushing the price, another parabolic rise is difficult with the current OS.
To expect a repeat of the speed of the last move assumes that an enormous number of shares will be bought. So new buyers are needed to move the large OS. I would hope for an orderly upward trend with some jumps on good news.
Didn't change my mind. .0061, .0081, .01, .015, .02, .035, .05. Then it's up to KMAG to deliver more earnings. With this giant OS we simply need giant earnings.
Excellent analysis GreenMan. The OS is a formitable obstacle. We could do the math and calculate how much earnings would bring that OS to an average PE ratio. Suffice it to say the earnings aren't there today. Traders are in control and may well be until KMAG gets come coverage in the business press.
Masterlu I love your devious creative mind. Here is more fodder. Look at the bottom indicators to "volume accumulation" and notice for the last three sessions, and on occasion before, that big selling occurs near the open. That action skews the on balance volume indicator downward. But the devious interpretation is that MMs are shortselling to fill someone's buy order imcrimentally during the rest of the day. Just a little conspiracy theory to bide the time
Ha! That is you and me at the left of the chart. Good thing we aren't selling to break even. Sellers like that cause the price to stall at such points like we are now seeing. That is what the chart is illustrating. Buying volume is what will push us through resistance and I presume that will come.
Institutional advisors will not see KMAG on their screens until it is uplisted to a more "respectable" exchange. It has been mentioned that Jeff Reid has intentions to uplist, which would require the stock to trade above .10 for 90 consecutive days. To get on the NYSE-AMEX the price requirement is $2. That is way off but hopefully attainable.
Your strategy makes sense. Averaging in over a period of time tames buying on an emotional whim. On may 2 KMAG broke out of what I determined was a downtrend channel and I jumped in without awaiting a confirmation. Within 2 days it was 20% lower and I was glad that I didn't commit a large amount.
That is a good question in regards to the sector that KMAG is in. The mining sector if full of penny stocks covered by market letters. There was one called the Penny Stock Advisor. At some point some guru is going to recognize the potential of KMAG based on fundamentals. I would guess that if Q1 and Q2 are as impressive as projected there will be some coverage.
I would much prefer your Steady Climb North!! scenario than the "to da moon" rollercoaster
Very interesting data there stlsmitty. I would hope that fundamentals would start affecting the price soon. Q1 and Q2 guidance hopefully will generate interest of market analysts. A killer contract would help too. In regards to your observation of the MMs needing an uptrend for their strategy, here is a chart I found interesting. It is a very short term uptrend that could break down any time with no consequence other than filling the right shoulder. But it shows that the day traders are bringing the price up on a micro level. Also there is a bullish triangle which when broken to the upside or downside will give a statistically significant suggestion future short term direction.
This last month gave some effective trading technical signals. The double top gave a sell signal that obviously many acted on. The ensuing down trend kept the technicians from buying until some form of bottom formation appeared.
Here is a chart formation I am watching closely, the reverse head and shoulders. When the head formed I thought the right shoulder would appear at the .0081 coincidental resistance and 200DMA or even .01. A high volume reversal day hinted at that. But it seems to be forming at lower levels. Regardless, the conservative buy signal is when the right shoulder is fully visible and an uptrend develops. I took a gamble and bought during the formation of the head. The caveat is that this pattern may become invalid and a larger, long term head and shoulders is forming, and that the head is really a left shoulder. But the downside volume is not yet confirming that possibility. Nonetheless, when one is dollar cost averaging, buying at intervals, this interpretation stopped me from buying during the downtrend and signaled me to do some relatively low risk accumulation down here.
I prefer #1
Absolutely! If news should shoot us through .02 and then past .035, that would be a new base upon which all charting would reset. For that to transpire, volume would have to be massive. On good news that is a possibility.
stlsmitty introduced me to KMAG and I bought into it soley on fundamental merits. During the decline I discovered that classical technical analysis gave me cautions which saved me from averaging in with large amounts. Now the signals are telling me to make larger buys. The story is everything here, the charts only aid with entry points.
Yes, classic, as in classical tech analysis, if the scenario plays out. That would be a major reversal and buy signal for a lot of technical analysts
Coincidentally the 200MA at around .008 is where support was in April and resistance in mid May. There is major resistance at .01 and some consolidation would not be surprizing and backing down to .0081 at support and the 200 MA makes sense.
Yet another chart. Breaking .005 today on convincing volume virtually negated the statistical possibility of retesting the .003's. We have the makings of a reverse head and shoulders pattern which would be a launch pad for a strong upside move. If resistance around the .085-.01 area causes some consolidation, that would form the right shoulder, buy signals would flash on trader's screens, and the chart would become a self fullfilling prophesy with an objective of .015 then on to challenge .02 in the near term.
Chart. Lonewolf is right. There was a double bottom last week and if we break .005 we could be on our way to a new bull phase. If we trade higher for a few days then correct a bit, the reverse head and shoulders will be complete and a technical buy signal will flash on trader's screens. My opinion is that would be serendipitous if all this could happen before Q1, then finally we could have a giant upside move on good news.