Market will be rangebound for few wks between 875- 825

Am i seeing H&S below SPX 840//
I have very small long position here

a small change in the angle would create all kinds of variation..Besides, even a techie would doubt just one closing. It has to spend time above for a wk or so for some measure of respect
Like my grandma used to say it is more art///

my understanding is you can make as many trades as you wish. Say you traded SPY 90 times and unfornutately w/ the faulty/overrated? technicals lost everytime. your last trade was nov 31 and accumulated losses $10000. Now you do not trade SPY in dec, it seems you can take the entire $10,000 as cap loss.( i mean 3000 and rest carry over)

Say, You buy SPY again in dec for $5000. Now your cost basis is $15,000. You sell it 2 weeks later before dec 31st for $20,000. Your net gain remains $5000.

looks like that Dummy book is not correct..

IRS says

Example 1.

You buy 100 shares of X stock for $1,000. You sell these shares for $750 and within 30 days from the sale you buy 100 shares of the same stock for $800. Because you bought substantially identical stock, you cannot deduct your loss of $250 on the sale. However, you add the disallowed loss of $250 to the cost of the new stock, $800, to obtain your basis in the new stock, which is $1,050.

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so wash rule net net has no impact!

tax on daytrades & wash rule: Say a trader makes $100000/ yr in his winners & lose $50,000 in his losers. His net is $50000/ yr on which he pays short term cap gains tax.
What if IRS says that he has to pay taxes on $100,000 as 50,000 losses cannot be deducted due to wash rule as the trader traded the stocks before 30 days expiration.???

top TL is same as AJ where he got a poke thru (can't be breakout!)

the chart to look at is NYA50R. At least a short term top is a cinch.

w/ feel good easter over by this week & earning period showing S&P earnings declining to ~45 annualized, the market will be found way over valued. Take profits when you can. I am doing so.

Technically, overbought as well.

market in the dead zone..traders go home..come back monday

watch out EWZ/EWT & mainland china index ..they may be leading US market

my basis was SPX 818 w/ DCA

scaled out of my position on SPX 827

SPX seems headed to 835 in short term..

nice long: BBBY, JOSB
nice short: ITG

USO & UNG have high correlation. But oil looks toppy .

long is always a psychologically better place to be, right now

just bought some SSO @SPX 815

SPY 81.5 may bounce a bit

% of SPX stocks above 50 SMA almost 80%, a level that in the past has seen selling. Having said that, given the huge momentum, retracement would at best be 3/8.. Unless...

A close on the high..a classic bull trap...

shorting more SSO here at SPX 840

in southflorida right here, i can attest that construction industry is still staring down the abyss. it is sending shivers..

In most bubble zones in US, prices for higher end homes are still stuck as if lehman was still engaging in pimping CDO/CMOs. The upper end price collapse will come just as CRE is gearing up to puke.
For longs it is a godsend opportunity to offload stocks for who knows how many yrs hence one will see 850ish level in S&P

The S&P 500 is up 25% in just over three weeks. Many analysts say that there is no reason that the run-up should be so sharp. The rally would be more “sustainable” if the climb was gradual and slower. That is probably true. Cautious investors are inclined to sell stocks that move up quickly to lock in profits. They are afraid that the market can’t go up forever. Those sentiments undercut future advances in stock prices.

from 24/7 wall street...

almost 100k downward revision in jan payroll!!! man this look stinky

That's what O neil wrote in his famous book. Who am i to object to that

it is no brainer.. R/R is in favor of shorts..Bear market breakout always fails (O neil)

hey is that dumpalooza

3 min SPX H&S broke..sell the news post O B A M A

most likely likei said before. R/R in favor of shorts here

shorted some SSO.. multiwk high is reached

aj's fav GS is up against 200 MA as well as at the upper TL (bear flag? 4mo long)-daily chart

has to be G-20 anticipation. Will be duly sold on sell the news. I have a very small short position here.

from your post to my trade..

i also scaled out this morning..indiv stocks again choppy..SYNA

until any time frame/tactic improves the probabilty of success, it is all crap shoot. That is it will work sometimes and not other times.

..longer term intra-day stochs, like the 45,17 and 180,68..

what is the basis of using these numbers (daily/60 min??)...i see 5,3 & 14,3 a lot

bought some SSO @19.3. End of the month play!! i trust ajtj

if end of month play were to be made, then ajtj may be buying premarket here

ajtj: what do you think about fixed income investment (2-3 yr long) in corporate bonds yielding ~10% like vanguard VWEHX. I mean even if it nets 6% if bonds lose value, it beats CDs etc unless default skyrocket