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Also, LD-AIM (as well as Lichello) never contemplated playing around with negative settings.
My excel formulas also ask for absolute values as a difference, so that's probably why it 'flips over to a Sell' as you say.
I try not to overcomplicate what is at its base a simple arithmetic.
Done and Done Tom and happy to do it.
I think we'd all be interested in your 'couple of years' experience with AIM.
Not necessarily with specific $ amounts as we have a tradition hereabouts in not sharing those, but anything else that provides perspective is helpful.
Why the difference?
My calcs mirror Lichello's and allow and account for a $ minimum as well.
Thanks j.
What a ride indeed.
With a volatile stock like AXAS, I require at least a 25% LIFO return or no less than a 15% higher price than my previous Sell.
So yes, that kind of move does trigger a large Sell typically between 9 and 12% of my programs holdings (Actual + Virtual).
I've AIM'd AXAS since 2005, so the Actual shares outnumber Virtual by almost 14 times at present. Given that, the % of Actual vs the % of total is minimal.
The use of virtual in LD-AIM allows for less expensive entry to a program and was designed to do that.
But the virtual's impact on the program diminishes over time. It all gets back to my original thesis of never having to buy most of a core position if the likeliehood is you're never going to sell it.
Hi OG and welcome to the club!
If you were to spend the time going through this board (not recommended unless you like to read a lot), you will find many references to using a slightly different approach to the calulation that makes it easier within a program to set your next Buy and Sell points.
Lichello's approach is to use regular checkup dates (Monthly, Weekly or even Daily) where the price is known.
Many of us use GTC orders (especially on the Sell side) to execute an order at a predetermined price. In order to do this, we predict what the Lichello calculation would recommend in advance.
In order to do this prediction, I 'reverse engineered' Lichello's math when I developed my LD-AIM approach.
The Excel worksheet has this page that explains how to do this.
Disregard the references Virtual shares. They relate to LD-AIM but the calculations work with or without them.
If you provide your email address, I'll send you the worksheet so you can see the actual formulas that I used in Excel. They are not complex at all. Rather they are just a series of calcs that sequentially walk through the logic. A nice feature of these steps is that they effectively deal with % Minimum and $ Minimum effectively.
Let me know if this helps.
HI Ken.
I stepped aside and sold my AXAS today... I did not like the price action
Sorry to hear that Ken.
It's definitely a volatile stock but has proven to be a reliable holding for AIM. I'm pretty patient with this one.
I had a nice Sell on AXAS yesterday @ 1.40.
Sold 12% of my Actual shares for a nice LIFO gain of 28%.
Price this morning is around 1.50 already.
It needs to get to 1.85 to trip my next Sell.
I also had a Sell last week on my Silver ETF (SLV) which I trade with narrow settings.
Sold 9% of my Actual shares (6% of the program) for a LIFO gain of 12%.
Great! Please share.
My largest holding SNDK is being acquired by WDC and it is a mostly cash deal.
Should close in 2nd quarter so I will have some assets to redeploy.
I'm open to any suggestions in commodities, pharmaceutical, industrial, general health care, technology services.
Hi Allen.
All my AIM programs are in a tax deferred self directed IRA. So the tax impact on trades in those is moot. Any withdrawals when they start are taxed as regular income.
I simply use LIFO to to calculate gains on sales from those programs and to arithmetically track overall performance.
I hope this helps answer your question.
Hi Toof!
Right you are.
My silver etf, SLV is steadily moving higher recently.
Is there a copper play you'd recommend?
Ken: Well last month's short interest is only 7.45% so not huge; but not insignificant either. This represents about 7x average daily volume.
I've taken advantage of squeezes in the past; selling to the greedy!
Ken:
I'm not in @ .67 either.
In fact, since I use LIFO, My average cost on remaining shares is 2.55.
Hi Ken.
I don't think they were anywhere near Ch 11 and have a long history of managing risk well.
That being said, playing with stocks priced this low is always a Crap shoot and quite volatile.
Which is why it has been such a good LD-AIM stock over time for me.
I now own 34 times the # of actual shares than my starting # in late 2005. So not only have I accumulated a large position, I've taken plenty of $ off the table along the way!
I suscribe to Seeking Alpha an an article this morning said that AXAS' can have positive cash flow @ $30/bbl. Remains to be seen of course but I'm hanging in. ..
Right.
Might be another buying opportunity leading up to the call.
Definitely a roll of the dice!
(I've been in that game with AXAS for a long time).
AXAS:
That's great Ken.
What price?
It's@ 1.10 at the moment.
1.05 the other day.
0.84 a few weeks back!
Quite 'jumpy' this one is. ?
Hi Ken.
It got up to 1.31 before backing off.
I need 1.40.
Sorry Ken.
I have a bad habit of doing that.
Ken:
He who hesitates... ??
AXAS up over 25% today to $1.30.
+45% from yesterday's open.
I need it to get to $1.40 for my next sell.
Hi Tom.
I did my part and bought a new car at the end of January
Given your well known penchant for old cars, you might want clarify that statement...
A 'New' new car like a 2016 model?
Or a 'New' old car like you've done many times in the past?
Post a pic of your 'new' baby!
I should have been more precise.
Yes; discretionary is where the hangover is.
Less so staples because you still have to eat and handle all the 'downstream' effects of eating! Like Charmin. ??
Even Walmart is not on a good sales trend overall but that is buffered by their huge food and staples business.
Hi Allen.
Retail has a huge inventory hangover right now which will take at least 6 months of misery to get past.
By misery I mean terrible margins so don't expect a quick recovery in that sector.
I'm surprised at KMX.
I'll need to look into that. They've been on my radar many times but I haven't pulled the trigger.
My from the hip guess is that the price inflation on used cars they've been enjoying is starting to or has already peaked.
Hi Ken.
Maybe you should!
I bought a nice chunk on 2/11 @ 0.79 and sold most of it on 2/17 for 1.05.
33% gain in 6 days ain't too shabby!
AXAS has always been one of my most volatile programs.
Hi Alton and Tom.
My exposure to oil is with AXAS and has been simialr to Tom's of late.
4 Consecutive Buys since October from 1.45 to 0.85 / share.
That 0.85 buy was today.
I have had an LD-AIM program on it since 2005.
Highest Selling price was 6.11 in June, 2014 which was the last of 6 consecutive Sells.
Since then I have had 5 Sells and 18 Buys, so I'm loaded up, waiting for the eventual rebound.
Thanks Tom!
And a Happy New Year to you and yours as well.
(Give Jane a kiss from me)
Congrats!
Serves me right for not paying attention.
Good job!
Hiya Toof.
Right Jon.
A lot has happened over "those few short months".
Addendum to Activity on VIXY...
I had 2 AIM Sells on Friday of VIXY:
1st @ 12.50, then 2nd @ 13.80.
Then a 3rd Sell tripped Monday morning 30 minutes before that crazy 1,000 point drop in the Dow 30, selling @ 16.38 (above my limit price).
The first 2 gained 15% LIFO, the 3rd a 26% LIFO.
Add another Sell today @ 18.00. 25% LIFO on this one.
Next GTC Sell set @ 20.00
Crazy volatility (fear) again in the market today!
Price on VIXY has already dropped almost 5% to 17.15.
Hiya Toof.
CREE: I had last buy on 6/26 @ 27.00. Next Buy would be @ 22.90.
SLW: I own SLV which is a pure Silver price tracking ETF. Last Buy was on 7/7 @ 14.24. Next would be @ 12.80.
Hard to tell if/when lower prices will be available given these last few weeks in the market. But I've not waited. I've had 11 Buys so far in August.
And a Crazy Volatile market it has been too!
Lots of fear.
Consequent to that fear, I had 2 AIM Sells on Friday of VIXY:
1st @ 12.50, then 2nd @ 13.80.
Then a 3rd Sell tripped Monday morning 30 minutes before that crazy 1,000 point drop in the Dow 30, selling @ 16.38 (above my limit price).
The first 2 gained 15% LIFO, the 3rd a 26% LIFO.
Cash running a little low, so am hopeful that we see a few more Sells soon.
RE: Rob Hansen
Thanks for sharing the very sad news Tom.
Rob was a great guy with a loving family.
I located his obituary just now.
Dr. Robert "Bob" Hansen, D.D.S., formerly of Chicago, passed away after a long difficult battle with cancer on Thursday, October 2, 2014, surrounded by the love and prayers of his family. If love could have saved him, he never would have left. He is survived by his loving wife of 38 years, Kathy Hansen, One daughter Brette (Nate) Egan and their children, Jake and Ty; One sister Cathy (Dick) Kuffner and a community of friends. He is preceded in death by his parents, Jack and Mary Hansen.
Rob, Kathy and Brette were such a charming bunch! I have very fond memories of the time we all spent together at the AIM gathering in 2000. Hard to imagine that was 15 years ago.
Sad news indeed.
Hi RR.
Welcome.
I also use Excel.
I like the flexibility it provides.
The various sheets I've created over the years are not for public consumption. Just record keeping for the most part.
Hi Tom!
Hope you had a good 4th.
I guess I should not put in such large orders. I actually got the NYSE to halt trading this AM!!!
Hilarious!
Yikes! GDPAN?
Thinly traded,
Extremely small cap, (Ant Man would have a hard time finding this one).
And what cliff did it fall off of last year?
Down ~90% over last 52 weeks?
GDPAN even scares me and I've been known to throw the dice every now and then.
If you want a good, volatile, low priced oil stock, take a look at AXAS which I AIM and have for a long time.
Priced pretty nicely right now too like a lot of the others.
Good fundamentals for an oil stock in this market.
Just sayin'.
Hi Toof.
I'm surprised you didn't AIM it.
It certainly has had enough Zig & Zags over the last few years.
Hi J
Well CREE set a new 52 week low this morning at 26.16, so you might see your $25 Buy point pretty soon!
Not sure about $20 though.
My next Buy is at 22.90 and given CREE's historical large gaps down, I'm going to wait 30 days bfore pulling that trigger again.
No problem on the software.
Variable inputs would be nice though!
You know how it goes; guys like to fiddle with all the knobs and switches!
I do use them always on the Sell side.
Just not on the Buy side except when I do if that makes sense.
In other words, if I see that a holding is quietly approaching my buy price I will put it out there.
AXAS is a good current example.
I've been trying to get a buy at 2.80 for at least a month. Close at times but not quite there yet.
But I generally don't let them run past a weekend because I don't like surprises and can't monitor.
But I always read the tea leaves early on Monday and will reuse it.
Hi Tom.
Congrats on the Buy this morning on CREE.
My GTC Buy executed @ $27.00 a little after 9:00 our time this morning.
And similarly to yours, the add was 13% to my program, 21% to my Actual position.
This Buy was a 15% discount to the previous transaction; also a Buy.
And again, similarly to yours, after a nice Sell in mid-November @35.35, I had a Buy in December, a Sell in January, a Buy in April and another this morning.
I'm hoping this is all because great minds think alike!
Frankly I think they might be positioning their LED biz to be sold by virtue of their soon to be spinoff/IPO of their semiconductor foundation (Power and RF division).
But just the production I think, not their LED patent portfolio.
All a guess on my part, but regardless, the analysts seem to think the spinoff IPO is a positive step which will add value to shareholders over the long term since its value won't be diuted with the LED biz which is getting relatively larger and obviously more volatile.
I'm not so sure CREE is very adept at consumer marketing. The few times I've seen their displays at Home Depot, they did shout CREE, but as far as I know they really don't explain who they are and tout/sell their technological advantages.
BTW: My brother in Colorado recently converted every bulb in their townhouse to LEDs and they bought all of them at Home Depot.
Pretty pricey step to take all at once, but their small city and electrical coop is giving them some $ credit on their go forward bills to reward their upfront commitment to these little miracle devices.
I'm still mostly CFL, but did recently pick up an LED shoplight to replace my 4' twin tube classic flourescent. It has rows of LED's instead of the tubes.
Haven't mounted it yet but will soon.
Hi Allen.
They are my broker too.
I don't generally have GTC Buy Limit orders as a rule.
I will place from time to time with 1-5 day lifespans, but not too often.
The one I entered today for CREE expires tomorrow night.
I recall mentioning to jaiml a few weeks back that CREE would be under some pricing pressure from the likes of Philips and GE.
Son of a gun! They mentioned pricing pressure for LED's in their release, lowering expectations.
Hiya j
CREE took a header today and closed down about 10% at 27.50.
The low for the day was 26.92 and I think that was in the premarket.
Since my next Buy was at 27.00 I missed that opportunity since I don't get alerts in the premarket.
So I entered it earlier this afternoon and extended through the post market hours.
Maybe someone will be willing to cave on the few shares I want.
PS: I'd really like to try your software.
Allen: Thanks for sharing all of that.
Wasn't necessary but did clarify.
Probably best to focus your AIM efforts on the funds where you or dependents could benefit.