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Hi Allen.
What spreadsheet are your using?
As Tom said, Mr. Lichello never worked with or cared about how many shares to Buy or Sell.
It was always $.
# of shares was derived by dividing the $ by the price.
Come to think of it, he really never talked about minimums either.
If memory serves (and that is questionable with me), he may have mentioned that it wasn't worth the effort to trade less than 5% of Stock Value.
Somehow over the years, in order to preset Buy and Sell prices, we've derived calcs to 'reverse engineer' Lichello's basic approach. Minimums came into play from that effort.
But again, my memory may not be as precise on this score as it used to be.
Hi Tom!
Congrats on the early productivity with CGNX.
Ahh CGNX.
That hasn't been brought up lately at all.
I never had a program with it that I can recall, but do remember that you and a few other of us old timers did well with it for quite a long time.
And didn't you use CGNX in some of the early explanatory bits at your site?
Been away too long.
Allen.
I've never been able to understand what is " magic " about a month.
It's always seemed arbitrary too me with respect to AIM.
I can see taking a breather on the Buy side so as to avoid catching falling knives. But in my mind, 'a bird in the hand....regardless of the date...' ?
Hi Allen.
The reason I am looking at this is trying to see if it is possible to create settings that work with shorter range positions. Many ETFs have a relatively narrow 52 week range so AIM, in its standard form, never gets a buy or sell in any reasonable time if you don't buy at the top or bottom of the 52 week cycle.
Agreed.
I run my Silver ETF (SLV) with total range of ~10% for the same reason. Even so, in the last year, I've had just 1 Buy (last July) and 1 Sell (last month). However, the previous 2 years I had 24 trades (17 Buys, 7 Sells).
I believe this was due more to the long slow slide in Silver price more than my settings which really haven't changed.
Of course with that kind of transaction pattern, I've loaded up on shares; with more than 5x the # of Actual shares than my initial position.
Bottom line is that I believe one's settings do need to fit the holding as much as is possible. Maybe you should do a Zig Zag analysis on your holding to try and zero in on your range.
I moved one stock, GNL, into AIM wanting to reduce the size of the position and played with the buy safe because I did not want to get any more.
I'd just set up a LD-AIM program with 10 Sells and 0 Buys. Then just don't Buy any more regardless of the price action.
Thanks for sharing Tombo.
Your story sounds familiar to others we've heard out here over the years.
I hear ya when it comes to buying as price falls. Especially immeditely after you established that initial core position at a siginificantly higher price!
One of the nice aspects of LD-AIM is that the initial core position is much smaller. So those subsequent Buys sting a little less.
If you've read any of the background info here, you see that another oft used tactic is to delay consecutive Buys for 30 day. Arbitrary for sure, but sometimes you have to pump the brakes.
Thanks Tom.
Forrest Gump would probably say something like 'Simple is as Simple Does'.
Mr. Lichello would agree I think.
Thanks Tom.
Forrest Gump would probably say something like 'Simple is as Simple Does'.
Mr. Lichello would agree I think.
Also, LD-AIM (as well as Lichello) never contemplated playing around with negative settings.
My excel formulas also ask for absolute values as a difference, so that's probably why it 'flips over to a Sell' as you say.
I try not to overcomplicate what is at its base a simple arithmetic.
Done and Done Tom and happy to do it.
I think we'd all be interested in your 'couple of years' experience with AIM.
Not necessarily with specific $ amounts as we have a tradition hereabouts in not sharing those, but anything else that provides perspective is helpful.
Why the difference?
My calcs mirror Lichello's and allow and account for a $ minimum as well.
Thanks j.
What a ride indeed.
With a volatile stock like AXAS, I require at least a 25% LIFO return or no less than a 15% higher price than my previous Sell.
So yes, that kind of move does trigger a large Sell typically between 9 and 12% of my programs holdings (Actual + Virtual).
I've AIM'd AXAS since 2005, so the Actual shares outnumber Virtual by almost 14 times at present. Given that, the % of Actual vs the % of total is minimal.
The use of virtual in LD-AIM allows for less expensive entry to a program and was designed to do that.
But the virtual's impact on the program diminishes over time. It all gets back to my original thesis of never having to buy most of a core position if the likeliehood is you're never going to sell it.
Hi OG and welcome to the club!
If you were to spend the time going through this board (not recommended unless you like to read a lot), you will find many references to using a slightly different approach to the calulation that makes it easier within a program to set your next Buy and Sell points.
Lichello's approach is to use regular checkup dates (Monthly, Weekly or even Daily) where the price is known.
Many of us use GTC orders (especially on the Sell side) to execute an order at a predetermined price. In order to do this, we predict what the Lichello calculation would recommend in advance.
In order to do this prediction, I 'reverse engineered' Lichello's math when I developed my LD-AIM approach.
The Excel worksheet has this page that explains how to do this.
Disregard the references Virtual shares. They relate to LD-AIM but the calculations work with or without them.
If you provide your email address, I'll send you the worksheet so you can see the actual formulas that I used in Excel. They are not complex at all. Rather they are just a series of calcs that sequentially walk through the logic. A nice feature of these steps is that they effectively deal with % Minimum and $ Minimum effectively.
Let me know if this helps.
HI Ken.
I stepped aside and sold my AXAS today... I did not like the price action
Sorry to hear that Ken.
It's definitely a volatile stock but has proven to be a reliable holding for AIM. I'm pretty patient with this one.
I had a nice Sell on AXAS yesterday @ 1.40.
Sold 12% of my Actual shares for a nice LIFO gain of 28%.
Price this morning is around 1.50 already.
It needs to get to 1.85 to trip my next Sell.
I also had a Sell last week on my Silver ETF (SLV) which I trade with narrow settings.
Sold 9% of my Actual shares (6% of the program) for a LIFO gain of 12%.
Great! Please share.
My largest holding SNDK is being acquired by WDC and it is a mostly cash deal.
Should close in 2nd quarter so I will have some assets to redeploy.
I'm open to any suggestions in commodities, pharmaceutical, industrial, general health care, technology services.
Hi Allen.
All my AIM programs are in a tax deferred self directed IRA. So the tax impact on trades in those is moot. Any withdrawals when they start are taxed as regular income.
I simply use LIFO to to calculate gains on sales from those programs and to arithmetically track overall performance.
I hope this helps answer your question.
Hi Toof!
Right you are.
My silver etf, SLV is steadily moving higher recently.
Is there a copper play you'd recommend?
Ken: Well last month's short interest is only 7.45% so not huge; but not insignificant either. This represents about 7x average daily volume.
I've taken advantage of squeezes in the past; selling to the greedy!
Ken:
I'm not in @ .67 either.
In fact, since I use LIFO, My average cost on remaining shares is 2.55.
Hi Ken.
I don't think they were anywhere near Ch 11 and have a long history of managing risk well.
That being said, playing with stocks priced this low is always a Crap shoot and quite volatile.
Which is why it has been such a good LD-AIM stock over time for me.
I now own 34 times the # of actual shares than my starting # in late 2005. So not only have I accumulated a large position, I've taken plenty of $ off the table along the way!
I suscribe to Seeking Alpha an an article this morning said that AXAS' can have positive cash flow @ $30/bbl. Remains to be seen of course but I'm hanging in. ..
Right.
Might be another buying opportunity leading up to the call.
Definitely a roll of the dice!
(I've been in that game with AXAS for a long time).
AXAS:
That's great Ken.
What price?
It's@ 1.10 at the moment.
1.05 the other day.
0.84 a few weeks back!
Quite 'jumpy' this one is. ?
Hi Ken.
It got up to 1.31 before backing off.
I need 1.40.
Sorry Ken.
I have a bad habit of doing that.
Ken:
He who hesitates... ??
AXAS up over 25% today to $1.30.
+45% from yesterday's open.
I need it to get to $1.40 for my next sell.
Hi Tom.
I did my part and bought a new car at the end of January
Given your well known penchant for old cars, you might want clarify that statement...
A 'New' new car like a 2016 model?
Or a 'New' old car like you've done many times in the past?
Post a pic of your 'new' baby!
I should have been more precise.
Yes; discretionary is where the hangover is.
Less so staples because you still have to eat and handle all the 'downstream' effects of eating! Like Charmin. ??
Even Walmart is not on a good sales trend overall but that is buffered by their huge food and staples business.
Hi Allen.
Retail has a huge inventory hangover right now which will take at least 6 months of misery to get past.
By misery I mean terrible margins so don't expect a quick recovery in that sector.
I'm surprised at KMX.
I'll need to look into that. They've been on my radar many times but I haven't pulled the trigger.
My from the hip guess is that the price inflation on used cars they've been enjoying is starting to or has already peaked.
Hi Ken.
Maybe you should!
I bought a nice chunk on 2/11 @ 0.79 and sold most of it on 2/17 for 1.05.
33% gain in 6 days ain't too shabby!
AXAS has always been one of my most volatile programs.
Hi Alton and Tom.
My exposure to oil is with AXAS and has been simialr to Tom's of late.
4 Consecutive Buys since October from 1.45 to 0.85 / share.
That 0.85 buy was today.
I have had an LD-AIM program on it since 2005.
Highest Selling price was 6.11 in June, 2014 which was the last of 6 consecutive Sells.
Since then I have had 5 Sells and 18 Buys, so I'm loaded up, waiting for the eventual rebound.
Thanks Tom!
And a Happy New Year to you and yours as well.
(Give Jane a kiss from me)
Congrats!
Serves me right for not paying attention.
Good job!
Hiya Toof.
Right Jon.
A lot has happened over "those few short months".
Addendum to Activity on VIXY...
I had 2 AIM Sells on Friday of VIXY:
1st @ 12.50, then 2nd @ 13.80.
Then a 3rd Sell tripped Monday morning 30 minutes before that crazy 1,000 point drop in the Dow 30, selling @ 16.38 (above my limit price).
The first 2 gained 15% LIFO, the 3rd a 26% LIFO.
Add another Sell today @ 18.00. 25% LIFO on this one.
Next GTC Sell set @ 20.00
Crazy volatility (fear) again in the market today!
Price on VIXY has already dropped almost 5% to 17.15.
Hiya Toof.
CREE: I had last buy on 6/26 @ 27.00. Next Buy would be @ 22.90.
SLW: I own SLV which is a pure Silver price tracking ETF. Last Buy was on 7/7 @ 14.24. Next would be @ 12.80.
Hard to tell if/when lower prices will be available given these last few weeks in the market. But I've not waited. I've had 11 Buys so far in August.
And a Crazy Volatile market it has been too!
Lots of fear.
Consequent to that fear, I had 2 AIM Sells on Friday of VIXY:
1st @ 12.50, then 2nd @ 13.80.
Then a 3rd Sell tripped Monday morning 30 minutes before that crazy 1,000 point drop in the Dow 30, selling @ 16.38 (above my limit price).
The first 2 gained 15% LIFO, the 3rd a 26% LIFO.
Cash running a little low, so am hopeful that we see a few more Sells soon.
RE: Rob Hansen
Thanks for sharing the very sad news Tom.
Rob was a great guy with a loving family.
I located his obituary just now.
Dr. Robert "Bob" Hansen, D.D.S., formerly of Chicago, passed away after a long difficult battle with cancer on Thursday, October 2, 2014, surrounded by the love and prayers of his family. If love could have saved him, he never would have left. He is survived by his loving wife of 38 years, Kathy Hansen, One daughter Brette (Nate) Egan and their children, Jake and Ty; One sister Cathy (Dick) Kuffner and a community of friends. He is preceded in death by his parents, Jack and Mary Hansen.
Rob, Kathy and Brette were such a charming bunch! I have very fond memories of the time we all spent together at the AIM gathering in 2000. Hard to imagine that was 15 years ago.
Sad news indeed.
Hi RR.
Welcome.
I also use Excel.
I like the flexibility it provides.
The various sheets I've created over the years are not for public consumption. Just record keeping for the most part.
Hi Tom!
Hope you had a good 4th.
I guess I should not put in such large orders. I actually got the NYSE to halt trading this AM!!!
Hilarious!
Yikes! GDPAN?
Thinly traded,
Extremely small cap, (Ant Man would have a hard time finding this one).
And what cliff did it fall off of last year?
Down ~90% over last 52 weeks?
GDPAN even scares me and I've been known to throw the dice every now and then.
If you want a good, volatile, low priced oil stock, take a look at AXAS which I AIM and have for a long time.
Priced pretty nicely right now too like a lot of the others.
Good fundamentals for an oil stock in this market.
Just sayin'.