Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Marzan,
It would be considered self dealing if the board extended warrants while in possession of trial data that is not available to the public. If LP et all gave themselves additional warrants, at a strike price of $1.50 while knowing that the trial was successful they would be doing so on inside information. There's strict guidelines on what a company can do regarding their financial transactions having an influence on the SP when they have sensitive information.
I hope a lot of you on this board who knows that all those rumors this morning were complete fabrications used the drop to load up on shares.
You cannot selectively divulge information to some shareholders and not others. Warrant holders are shareholders/investors, just like retail and institutional investors. You can also not raise funds, like issue shares (which this will be as there will be a price in the form of additional warrants executed in an extending transaction) when you are sitting on non-public information. This is true regardless of whether it is bad news or good news. There's no 'only if bad news can you not do financial transactions' law. It relates to all news, good or bad.
It's on twitter, so it must be true.......
I DON'T think they have ever shared non-public information with warrant holders. That would likely not be legal.
I don't know what it is like in Holland, but if they are sitting on non public information, they cannot. If there will be an extension of the warrants, it means that they are still blinded. They will not share non public information with warrant holders.
There's at present time no real information that the warrants will be extended. That some poster writes that they know the warrants will get extended is not reliable information.
What makes you think NWBO is not SEC compliant? If you are referring to the 10-Q, you need to show why you think the extension would not still be in effect due to Covid-19?
I don't know how they would be able to construct any kind of price point that would somehow not be viewed as inappropriate. I really don't think that they would ever try to do something like that. At that point, it would just be easier to let them expire and focus on creating a narrative that would get the company on the road to where they see themselves going. As I mentioned before, I am not really seeing any problem with the warrants being exercisable on 12/15.
I agree that it is highly unlikely that they would extend the warrants. Even though there was no mention of any extension before it happened last time, I agree with you on that point. My point in my previous posts were just an explanation of what the reasoning could be for the previous extension date and how we can use the news about a possible extension or not to gauge where the company is at in the process.
I also find that there's an unnecessary fear about what could happen post 12/15 among some of the retail investors on this board.
I think next week will be pivotal. I do not foresee a scenario where we do not get a TLD overview PR before Christmas. Even if it has taken a little longer for the statisticians to decipher the results and for the advisory board and other experts to agree on how to frame the results as they relate to the endpoints, I do believe we will know before Christmas. I do not put too much emphasis on LL's presentation on the 9th. She seems to have developed a great routine of talking about her work as it relates to DCVax-L without mentioning any non-public information, while looking like a kid that was told a secret but sworn to secrecy. The smile on her face when talking about the future of GBM treatments is a clear indicator that she knows she will be able to help patients in the future live better and longer lives.
There's no way they would wait 6 months to present the full data set. ASCO is not going to be the place they will do that. If there's no conference they feel could adequately be used as a discussion platform for the discussion of the full data set, they will do it in a publication. That doesn't mean LL couldn't do a follow up at ASCO and talk about the full phase III results, but it will not be the place for the roll out.
I agree and that is the one reason I doubt we will see an extension of the warrants.
I think Marzan, whom I greatly appreciate for his inputs on this board, and some other posters here are too worried about the warrants expiring on 12/15. Most of them are friendlies and management. There will not be a flood of shares available. Those who accepted the extension are not investors we should worry about.
In my opinion, those who were less friendly (by that I mean was a little worried about their investment and did not extend), did not accept the extension and have already either sold to cover their initial investment and a small profit or have entered short positions to cover their initial investment.
Some of the friendlies might have covering short position too, but I doubt they will do much more than cover their initial investment which at this price would be sell/short about 1/6th of holding.
The market will easily be able to handle whatever shares will come out should there not be any further extensions. Combine that with the shorter time frame for news and we, in my humble opinion, will not see significant drops in the share price around 12/16-12/19. The shorts and paid Fudsters will try to make a big deal out of it, but that will just be noise.
If I remember correctly it was not all the warrant holders in October who agreed to the extension. Some of them did not agree to the time/value of the price company came up with for the extensions and did not extend their warrants. I am sure the company negotiated with the biggest warrant holders and came up with the price they were willing to pay for the extension and that the majority of the warrant holders were willing to accept. Thermoo would be more informative on this subject than me, but that is the way it is normally done. I am not sure he is at liberty to talk about those discussions and what other options were discussed at the time, WRT time frame of the extensions. If the company were certain that they would be able to roll out there narrative with a 6 week extension, there might not have been other time frames discussed.
It is however not a guarantee that they are unblinded if they DO NOT extend the warrants, but from a financial perspective, highly likely.
You would think that if the statisticians are not done with their analysis next week, they will likely extend the warrants. The miniscule amount of additional warrants (about 3-5% additional shares of the warrants expiring) means nothing in the big picture for the company or the investors. It does however give the company time to create their own narrative for the release of TLD and the story to follow. I am thinking that this was the reason they extended them in the first place, only to be fooled by the statisticians timeline.
I know some of you will ask why they didn't just extend them until next year in the first place. When you are in talks with warrant holders about a possible extension, there will be negotiations regarding the time/value of the extension. Last time they agreed to do around 6 weeks for an additional 3.5% of warrant shares. I am sure they had the opportunity to extend to 2021, but that would have cost them a lot more because of the longer time horizon. They gambled on 6 weeks and if they have to extend them again, it might have been better to pay more for a longer extension.
The additional cost of extending the warrants after 12/15 would be so little, considering that they would have had to pay more back in October to extend it into 2021. A simple example would be like this:
Lets say it would have cost 6% to extend to Feb.1 2021 back when they paid 3.5% to extend to Dec.15
Lets say that now we are looking to pay 3.5% to get an additional extension from 12/15/20 to 2/1/21.
That means the fact that they didn't do the longer extension in October, essentially cost 1% of the 170M Warrants, so 1,7M warrants at $1.50
Now if the share price would have been $3 now, then that would be the approximate strike price for the new 3.5%, which would have more than made up for the additional 1%. Unfortunately, the SP is about the same as when they originally did the extension, so yes, the gamble would have cost them 1.7M waraants.
In my view, this was definitely the right decision they made in October. The fact that it wasn't successful (That is if they extend the warrants again) is not important. What is important is that at the time it was the right decision. Everyone on this board would have thought the share price would be much higher at this time, including management and the warrant holders who extended at $1.5 (If my memory serves me).
Let's just be patient one more week and see what happens. I am hopeful they are unblinded and that we will get some news next week.
GLTA
It is 100% certain that IF they extend the warrants next week, they are still blinded. The only way they can extend the warrants if unblinded, is to release TLD before they extend them. Having information about the results of the trial, makes them unable to raise funds, extend warrants and other financial dealings, without releasing the information to the public.
Since some of these warrant holders are company insiders, giving themselves additional warrants at let's say $1.50 strike price, for extending the warrants until sometime in 2021, would be a HUGE violation, if they know they were successful with the trial. They would in essence give themselves a huge windfall as the SP is guaranteed to go up with this information.
Because they would sit on knowledge about the trial that the warrant holders who are not insiders would not have.
Marzan, I highly doubt they will extend the warrants if they release TLD before 12/15. Why would they worry about a small dilution if they are sitting on great results? A fair amount of the warrants set for 12/15 are so called friendlies and NWBO management.
No person who is a serious investor would care what AF has to say. He is irrelevant in investment circles these days. Haven't been relevant for years. Likely since The Street kicked him out.
I would under normal circumstances take at least 50k at 10-1 for TLD this year. My problem is 1) you will likely not put the 500k in escrow, which I would require as you could be a kid sitting in your parents basement and 2) I doubt you would be able to cover in the first place. If you are really interested and feel you can escrow $500k-1M, then I would gladly pay any escrow fees regardless of result to hire a reputable law firm to handle the escrow. Please let me know if you have the capital and wish to proceed.
If we don't get TLD until January, that means they are still blinded next week and the warrants will get extended. If the warrants are not extended next week, we should get brief TLD announcement before Christmas. If you keep an eye on the warrants and possible extension, you will know if they are still blinded.
I have seen people saying that once they are unblinded, TLD should take a very short time. I don't think you can get the advisory group and other experts they might consult to review, discuss and agree on the results in such a short time. I think this will take at least a couple of weeks. I do think that they will have time to do the TLD PR before Christmas if they not blinded in time for an extension.
The key will be whether they announce an extension next week.
You do understand that the warrants that were given out in order to extent the early November warrants are not presently profitable. If they do give out additional warrants to extend the current ones that expire 12/15, the will likely have a higher price than the current SP. If these 'bonus warrant' as you call them, gets exercised, it will mean additional revenue to the company. Alternatively, they might need to do a new round of financing in Q1 2021. I seem to remember that the warrants given for the early November extension were somewhere in the $1.50's, so whatever new warrants might be 'given' in exchange for another extension, will likely be higher.
It is probably a moot point, as they will not be able to extend the warrants if they have been unblinded at this time. We will know that they are still blinded if they do extend the warrants.
Agree 100%. I don't need LP to worry about me as a retail shareholder. I need her to worry about herself and her legacy. She has fought for this company because it will leave her a legacy money can't buy. She could have sold out at a profit many times, but she has stayed the course for the sake of the patients, DCVax and her legacy.
When it comes to important issues like this, 'a hunch' is not enough. They could have sat on this for a while. The money they received on 11/25 was unrelated, so you can't use that as an example of them not knowing at that date.
Do we know that they received the results within the 4 day period of them reporting the failure?
I agree with your reference to history will repeat itself if we don't understand it. My point was that we have no history when it comes to DL and moving forward from there. In my humble opinion, DL changes everything and what happened before is not of that much value to me in terms of moving forward.
I think the only real difference in viewpoints between us is that I don't feel that they have yet missed any timeline that is reasonable. I fault them for not being better informed about the length of time it will take statisticians to finish their work. I think that we are right around the corner from TLD and that how they react to the warrant issue on 12/15 will give us a better indication of where they are in regard to being unblinded. I wake up every morning hoping for a PR with TLD news. I don't necessarily get too disappointed when it doesn't happen.
If they don't extend the warrants and don't release TLD before next year, I would be disappointed. I think that the only reason not to extend the warrants would be because they are unblinded and not able to do it, so at that point they should be able to do a TLD PR with overall success rate of the trial and at a later time disclose at a conference or in a medical journal.
Once they are unblinded, they cannot extend warrants or raise funds without releasing TLD.
Remember that Ramen has a multitude of flavors. Your time will come. I am your biggest fan and will be there all the way with you. One day you will be able to look at these days as a fun experience. Keep gobbling up those shares and hopefully we will make it to the other side.
Well, we all have different investment goals. Mine is not to see this go to a high single digit SP, but to ride this company to commercialization success. I really find it funny when people write the old 'Back in my day' posts to me, because I really could care less about what has already happened. I worry about the future, not the past. Also, I am not on any team with people who are shortsighted in their investment goals. I would be if I was trading in this stock, but I am not. I would rather see this done right than done now.
I am 100% sure my views would be different if I had been in this stock for a long time. That being said, this is the first time in all of the investors history of this company that there has been a Data Lock. The same can be said in regard to the management of this company. This time I do think that they deserve some leeway as it is unchartered territory and they obviously were not aware of the time such a large trial with multiple endpoints would take to analyze. Add the pandemic to this.
Hopefully we will all have a very merry Christmas.
It is important to understand that the new warrants that was given in exchange for the postponement of the early November warrants was at a different price. That price is higher than the current SP, so those added warrants have yet to be positive for the people who received them.
I am not sure that they can actually extend the warrants unless they are still blinded. Once they are unblinded, the knowledge they have would preclude them from granting further extensions. This would be a clear indicator either way. It will also put them in situation where they would have to make a decision on whether to release TLD before or after 12/15. I am sure they will look at past situations for companies in a similar situation in order for them to make the decision they think is the best long term. My guess is that if we see a notice within the next few days that they are extending the warrants, it must mean that they are about to get the results back from the statisticians. I personally think they have the results and are trying to figure out the best way to approach the immediate future.
Thanks Biosect.
I am not worried about people disagreeing with me. I do not see the post from most of the shorts on this MB, as I have taken the features on IHub into good use. I find it amazing that a few of the people whose posts I am not seeing are moderators, but I can live with a few of my posts being removed.
I respect a few of the ones who dislike management. They probably feel they have been let down in the past and that this is just more of the same. I am relatively new to this company (July 2020), so I have not had to endure the past as many of you have. I was told about this company through a friend who have had past dealings with management. I trust this person that they are good hard working people who have been through a lot with this company and that they have stayed the course and gotten us to this point.
I am not a management apologist. I can only say what I think about the company. I have no influence over, and have no intention to influence, how anyone else thinks about the management. If I see something that I would find not to my liking that they have done, I will mention it. At this time I find the only thing I would fault them for is being too optimistic regarding the timeline for DL and the work of the statisticians.
Lets see what happens between now and 12/15. I still think we could be having a very nice Christmas, but I am also fine with them needing more time to roll out their story.
I cannot attest to whether he is combatant with peoples inquiries. I have always found that any communication where you are not looking at the person communicating can be interpreted in a myriad of ways. When I was in private practice I would NEVER negotiate contracts via email/fax/telephone. I always set up meetings in person, so we would get to know each other and get a better understanding of where each side stood. The face to face meetings also got people a chance to see what kind of person you are dealing with and maybe not misunderstand a tone in an email or fax.
Based on some minor research, they are not obligated to disclose information, just because it appears on a website they have no control over.
He shouldn't have asked the question back at the original question. I agree with that. I don't think he is in a position to answer the question asked to him, as it would be information that they likely can't disclose at this time. I know that it is on a publicly available website, but he is in no position to either confirm or deny that information. His response should have been something like: "We are always working with various consultants regarding future potential scenarios for NWBO, I can neither confirm nor deny who the company is consulting with at this time."
and I don't think the warrant holders would mind that one bit. They could have shortened around 20% of their future shares in order to lock in a small profit, so they would still make a fortune, though only 80% of their full potential.
Very good post and this is exactly what I am looking forward to. The main reason I am in this for a very long time in the future.
Agree 100%.
There's no rule that you can only borrow shares for 3 days. You can keep them as long as you can cover potential losses with money in your account. I would not be surprised, as I have mentioned before, if a lot of the registered shorts are warrant holders. I understand that a lot of them are friendlies, but that doesn't mean they are not going to cover their initial investment and maybe a 'normal' return on their investment. There's around 20M shorts according to FINRA, which would be a small percentage of the shares from the warrants. I don't doubt there are other shorts, but 20M of shorted shares by non-warrant holders seem excessive.
We are in the middle of a pandemic. It is inevitable there will be delays. I personally think that management was not aware of the extended period of time it would take for statisticians to review the trial results and provide analysis for so many endpoints. We can fault them for being optimistic on that timeline. The fact that they (and LL) signed up for conferences, shows that they underestimated this timeline.
I think that they have been unblinded at this time, and I hope that they are constructing a narrative that will be the best narrative for the company to move into the next phase of the DCVax. As all you longtime investors of the company should know by now, they need to have a great roll out plan, as this company has continually been attacked by AF and his crowd. They need to have multiple good news PR's coming in short order for that to happen. I, personally, am glad they are not rushing this as I am in it for the long road to commercialization of DCVax.
It should be clear to most people who have followed the great investigative work on this board, that they are working from the assumption that the news will be good (Which if they have been unblinded for even a short period at this time would be even a clearer sign). They have hired staff at Sawston and been involved with a potential zoning of land that would provide for residences for future employees. I see these signs as a very good indication that they think they need to be ready sooner than later to ramp up production.
In regard to the 10-Q, they have gotten the extension. I think that the rule from the beginning of the pandemic is still in effect so that they only need to file the first extension and no further needs to be done. I think the issues they have with the delay 'could' possibly be tied to information that would be significant for the future of the company. I hate to speculate about what that information would be, but I will give an examples of what I think it COULD BE. There's a chance that they hired a company for potential uplisting and that the 10-Q would have information regarding their contract. This would be information that would have significant influence on the SP and would likely have to be communicated prior to the release of the 10-Q.
I don't think giving PR's about their expected timeline would be beneficial for investors. It would give more ammunition to shorts and Fudsters.
I, personally, do not think they will extend the warrants at this time. That opinion might change next week as we get closer. I am still hopeful that they will begin to tell 'their story' by next week. Should that not come to pass, then I would be open to an extension of the warrants if they feel that it would be beneficial to the company.
I hope that everyone would be patient to the extend that their financial situation will allow it and just wait for this story to begin to unfold. I am very positive that this will be a great journey for all of us investors and that if we stay on the train for the duration of the trip, we will all be greatly rewarded. I understand that some investors will jump off at the stations on the road, which is fine as you can never fault anyone for taking profits, but I am here for the trip to the end station, Eldorado.