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yb
Dont know how many of them it was but it was everything AMD had in stock of 2000+ Thoroughbreds.
Models 2000+ have been delivered in Germany two weeks ago with production weeks of June plus there is one dealer selling 2000+ labeled Barton Cores already.
So I do consider this deal as a sellout. I dont care much about "DUMPING". AMD desperately needed revenues for Q2 and HP needed an aggressive offer against DELL. Fair deal.
Gives AMD the chance to raise the bar in the low end as soon as low-bin Bartons and Thortons labeled 2000+ are sold as well - unless nothing more of this kind comes out of the process that is.
K.
Haddock
OTOH: The communication to employess referred to in the filing is dated June 20th - to be announced "at or around June 25th 2003". As one would expect the management had a clear visibility of the revenue-warning to come, commencement of the program is imminent this week - unless they changed plans within the last five days.
But then, this would not be the very first time AMD rings the big bell for something to come to keep investors hope up.
So it is still up to your brain versus your gut what to make out of it.
K.
Haddock - You know I actually had a nightmare last night that AMD common took off and I missed the boat. So my subconscious is warning me to get long ASAP. But unfortunately my conscious mind is reminding me of all the times I got long too early and lost money on AMD.
I know pretty well what you are talking about.
Realizing I got the filing for the options-exchange-program wrong (http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1141538), I completely agree there is no need to rush into the stock now. Only as soon as the exchange-program commences, that would be different. Which could be tomorrow or in October.
K.
Chipguy
Nobody seriously would argue against this one - unless maybe never being burned by previous explosions on the ramp or even after a successful liftoff. We all remember that not only AMDs space program is connected with severe risks.
Thanks for spinning the analogy ahead. Definitely makes a more complete picture looking at it this way.
K.
Correction: Stock-options exchange program
First of all, the link was too long for IHUB. Those interested find the filing at amd.com - investor relations - SEC-Filings. However, reading the filing thouroughly it says the exchange program has NOT commenced yet. Filing was done for informations given to the employees earlier.
So still waiting for the countdown to be initiated. Sigh.
K.
AMD sees the Company to be over the hump now
http://amd.edgarpro.com/redirect_frames.asp?filename=0001012870%2D03%2D003149%2Etxt&filepath=%5C....
Filed yesterday when people were looking at things which made them being reluctant to file this offer earlier. Interesting they only offer exchange for stock-options at prices at or above 14 USD. Says something about what they think is reasonable.
As for the revenue-warning: Unusually early, usus was first thursday of the week after quarter-end. Smells like big news to come very soon. Next week, I guess. Most probably much more solid tier-one commitment for opteron than IBM has been willing to express yesterday. As Athlon64-systems already leaked on HPs website, there is not so much to speculate anymore, I guess.
Anyway, there should be a whole lot of news in the pipeline for months to come.
As I posted last week, I still think of the AMD common to be rather on a launchsite than on a runway.
Now, yesterday countdown for launch has been initiated.
And counting.
K.
yb re: ...but when A64 will have some speedgrades below $100, many people will rush in to get the dual-processor setup for $350
At that time most probably there will be no need for a dual processor setup as we know it today: Dual core CPUs will be available then - maybe on die or maybe dual CPU-package - for single-socket mainboards, I guess.
K.
keith, re new notebook CPUs
Yes. I also expected 1900+ to be omitted. And the new models from the new Barton Core. Dont know what made them change plans. Could think of various reasons though.
Klaus
yb It is the same cpu as 3000
It seems not to be the case.
O/C is poor, people posted in Germany. Probably the lower bins of early Barton production. Hopefully not a big pile.
K.
yb new mobile CPUs
An interesting tidbit here is that Fujii uses model LV 1900+ for its S2000 Lifebook, although listprice for model 2000+ is only ten(!) Dollar more than for 1900+.
Prices indicate there is availability for both models.
Only explanation I can think of is that S2000 with Model LV2000+ looks like a lil bit too compelling product for people delivering CPUs to Fujii in much larger quantities for notebooks....
K.
AMD is probably about to outperform inteL.
Highly probable. AMDs production sweetspot is higher than their sales sweetspot now:
Todays pricelist starts with 2000+ desktop model. In Germany we see this model with packaging weeks from current month, and a Barton Model 2000+ Model (@1600MHz) already showed up: Thoroughbreds EOL is already visible.
Assuming every waferstart today -apart from Hammer- is for "new" Barton-Cores (the ones MP2800+ is packaged from), it is just a matter of one more quarter that your assumption will be obvious for everybody - that is across the board and not only for the Hammers phasing in exactly at that time. Adding the FASL agreement to be inked at the same time plus growing Flash-Shares plus turnaround makes the stock look more like a rocket on the ramp than the "runway" picture AMDs management is currently using.
K.
elmer
Jerry Sanders, May 2002, JPM Analyst Conference. K.
Tenchu
Oh yes.... good that you mention that exactly today as it is evidence using the term "bald-faced liar" is sometimes nothing less than just appropriate.
Klaus
fnf
the 246 will be 2.0G since the 244 is 1.8G. err, sure, my fault.
On the other note, I see availability for all Opteron models, supply and demand in equilibrium. I dont care much about coolers, as they are available as well. Boxed or not. Mainboards are phasing in as well now. Looks the seeding is going flawlessly. Lets see how it is growing. Needs patience and some rain, nothing else. The soil is fertile for Opterons.
Klaus
keith samsung
"Sources believe that Samsung is quietly shipping NOR-based flash memories for use in Nokia's phones"
I am deadsure what these sources believe is rubbish.
1.Ramping up Nokia-volumes of state-of-the-art NOR-Flash cannot be done "quietly".
2. High-density NOR-Flash is not like baking cookies, only three manufactorers on this planet can produce it. Developing and sampling such a process takes years. Impossible to do that quietly as well imo. Low-density-Flash is easier, but there is excessive capacities for a shrinking market already, why should Samsung begin with it?
2. Why would Samsung make their chipsets compatible to NAND which they already have in volume and deliver NOR to Nokia then?
Naah. Aggressive and potent, yeah. But stupid as well?
K.
keith 2000 figures for flash
I dont remember, but Flash was a real cash cow in 2000. About a third of revenues, 1,5 billion for the year roughly iirc.
However it not comparable to next year anyway.
Now they have four fabs, each of the two additional with capacity comparable to the two they had in 2000, expected to be fully ramped by year-end. Plus AMD has a bigger share of FASL revenues now. So far revenues would be comparable to 2000. But AMD plans consolidating FASL numbers in its books next year, so the whole picture is different.
A propos, then we are talking about a five billion company again for next year. Should help somewhat on the stockmarket.
But will be priced in only after the FASL-deal is inked.
September.
K.
keith Samsung
If so Samsung snatched it with NAND which is supported nowadays by chipsets for handsets they deliver as well.
K.
keith re: I hope that the rumours about Samsung entering the NOR space on a large scale are not correct, but I wouldn´t be surprised if they are.
I am not particularly worried about Samsung in the NOR-Arena.
I would be very surprised if they have some white rabbit in the hat that would be competitive to Mirrorbit. Conventional NOR might be manufacturable for them, but this one will hardly be competitive from the start off with other manufacturers process-technology cultivated over many years.
Klaus
elmer
They both can do that (and already do produce NAND in small quantities), AMD has announced modules containing NOR and NAND as well to counter the NAND-attack. But looking at AMDs facilities and at the Dramurais 300mm 90nm fabs that cannot be done competitively.
K.
keith, flash
Lol, good that you are the messenger of bad news and not Elmer
We can assume STM and others know pretty well what they do abandoning the NOR-Arena currently....
Without Multicell-technology it will be very very difficult to cover the costs for manufacturing NOR-Flash next year. Leave alone price-hikes.
Problem is the Dramurai phasing in currently will probably treat this market like they do with DRAM selling anything for prices down to variable costs to utilize their 300mm 90nm capacities - unless big and cheap NAND-modules are quickly adopted for booting Notebooks and storage.
AMD is still on a 230nm process for mirrorbit currently - unless I missed an announcement of at least sampling anything below that.
As transition from NOR to NAND will take some time, this year is fine for FASL, next year as well if mirrorbit is manufacurable then in Austin and JV3 already. But there is clearly no such thing as another Y2K for Flash in sight.
K.
FnF: I am curious as to what is dictating AMD's actions
Nothing really to be curious about, I guess. We just see a usual pattern for a new process.
Remember Thoroughbred Pattern?
------------- Lauch----------- Production Sweetspot (est)
Q1/02-------- 1700+----------- 1700+
Q2/02-------- 2200+----------- 1800+
Q3/02-------- 2400+/2600+----- 1900+
Q4/02-------- 2700+/2800+----- 2000+
Q1/03-------- 3000+----------- 2200+
Q2/03-------- 3200+/(3400+?)-- 2400+?
Not sure if the production data are accurate, especially not for the current quarter but the basic pattern is clearly visible ex post from the pricing-data.
The timeframes for Clawhammer are likely to be similar - but could as well be a lil bit faster - or a lot slower.
So, Opteron production sweetspot is 1400 MHz currently, that is what pricing tells us.
As soon as production sweetspot is at 1600, we will learn quickly by falling prices for Model 244. I am not talking about AMDs pricelist, but streetprices. Easy to follow e.g. on pricewatch.com.
As for your question: "When will AMD release a 2G Opteron"?
Could well be Model 248 will be launched this months already, but that does not mean anything.
In summary: Suggest you to look at prices, not at announcements. The latters are more disinformation than information.
K.
spokeshave
I know pretty well, that is why I am far from being offended by it.
What I wanted to express by intentionally misunderstanding you here is these two things (in the very same idiomatic, ironic sense you intended):
1. An offense is easily possible without using any bad words. Impossible to make rules covering these ones.
2. For an offense it needs more than an accusation: There has to be reception of it as well.
Klaus
Paul re: ....has to make one wonder why you'd want to moderate this board.
Not at all - unless we declare the board a podium for AMD-Hypesters only. Or even better, why dont we stay away from all disturbing content then and declare it the "Bash the bashers"-Forum? :)
Klaus
spokeshave re: ...letting the inmates run the assylum
Lol... Somewhat hard to decide what -if any- i would find more offensive: An accusation to be a bald-faced liar or what you seem to think about the posters of this board. A matter of taste.
Klaus
paul
A moderator has to moderate. This implies anyone in this function could not participate in flame wars anymore, even if he previously did (no idea if Elmer did or not, i dont follow these parts of the board).
If he did indeed and continues to do so as a moderator, we (or Matt if Keith asks him to do so) could kick him out of the function in a second.
Geeze, Elmer is not asking for a lifetime assignment as a judge, but for giving him a chance to act as an assistant moderator here.
You know, we have somebody standing up with a serious application for volunteering.
Refusing this could easily end up that Elmer might come to the conclusion people here are just too small for him to continue sharing his opinion. Which would be a bad loss for this board.
Klaus
keith
I could imagine the board could benefit from the move to invite Elmer to take responsibiliy for it.
Klaus
elmer re: Yeah, why not? eom
spokeshave
Your stepping back has my full understanding.
Thanks for all you have done for this board.
Klaus
OT Keith, spokeshave, proposal
Do you think it would be very difficult to add some spacing between the Text features (below posting screen) ?
Would make it much easier to copy and paste the formating strings into postings...
K.
re: Intels outlook
Actually, reading Intels update thoroughly it is nothing less as the confirmation of Dan Niles' assumptions:
Intel expects revenue to be between $6.6 billion and $6.8 billion, as compared to the previous range of $6.4 billion to $7.0 billion. The company's Intel Architecture business is trending to the high end of the normal seasonal pattern while demand for communications products remains soft. All other expectations are unchanged.
K.
keith re: outlook
AMD reconfirmed to be on track for the cost portion of the guidance. In a quarter where traditionally close to half of revenues happen in June one cannot expect better visibility than they have right now. Which was expressed like "we still believe our guidance of flat to slightly up is achievable, but guidance may change".
My gut says there is little chance for an upside surprise this Q.
Interesting enough, this is valid for Intel as well. Narrowing the guidance now is nothing less then the meta-message that they know already pretty well which numbers they will show - whatever the end-user-markets will do in June. Exactly what Dan Niles assumed a couple of days ago - in Intel-language: 6,7 B "including plus or minus some hundred millions channel inflation". That is all what is left for speculation for Q2-figures from Intel.
Its a gamble imo. If we see a recovery in Q3 already, it is just flattening seasonal patterns plus a favorable position for gaining shares, as the channels can burn down these inventories. If not, and/or AMDs Q3-offers are even more convincing than they are already (price- and/or productwise), it can get really ugly, if demand is not on what the channels have in stock then. Remember this kind of scenario was exactly what AMD suffered from bigtime last year.... Ouch!
K.
keith re: Athlon XP-M thin-and-light CPUs model 2000 + 2100 to be launched this month
Sounds excellent: Model 1900+ to be omitted, models 2000+ and 2100+ most probably from the revised Barton core-stepping MP2800+ is packaged from. (Tom Eby accidently used the terminus "old Barton" last night for what AMD is selling currently for Desktops - apart from other indiscretions.)
K.
Anybody has a stream already from Bobs Presentation?
I have slides, but no audio-stream yet.
K.
Edit: WMP does not work, Real is working. K.
sgolds re: Theresas article
in San Jose Mercury News is definitely a piece of excellence.
"[IBM] collaborates with Silicon Valley firms such as Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia and Xilinx on the design of advanced chips, which will in turn be manufactured here" is thouroughly worded, as it leaves open the possibility of development fab sale, foundry agreements, joint ventures, licenced production or any other option for any of the named and unnamed firms products. The only thing she is pretty sure of is that there will be manufactoring of other firms chips in East Fishkill.
From the way how she is talking about things you bet she knows exactly what she is talking about. :)
K.
fnf re role of IBM
Nothing is impossible, but I do not see any probable takeover scenario for AMD.
As for the fab, what the rumours are about is a development-fab planned long before the development collaboration with AMD.
Currently there is a development-line within the production fab which was originally to be moved to the dev-fab as soon as it is finished.
But the foundry part of the production fab is still to be filled, which is not exactly easy nowadays. I could easily imagine IBM realizes they dont need the development fab but could capitalize on it by changing plans and build it as a (rather small and relatively cheap) production-fab for AMD. As one of the problems last year for AMD was to have a fab in migration (at full costs producing close to nothing for many months) AMD would buy it only when it is completely equipped - plus expects to be in a much better shape financially when it needs the additional capacity - which is after a successful FY 04.
In essence, I understand the rumours as one possibility to be evaluated, versus using IBM as a foundry, and probably versus other opportunities we dont know of. I am pretty sure there is no decision made yet about it.
Nothing to be curious about imo. Let alone implying any Merger or acquisition idea in nothing more than a reasonable opportunity for the benefit of both parties.
K.
ps: btw, dont worry about your postings at about the date when Jerry said "Everybody has the right to be wrong".
I was wrong as well and I am not ashamed at all for it.
Edit: I see it was not you for the predictions. So disregard the ps.
Maybe the other guy lurks here...
fnf re: If they keep this up AMD will eat their lunch
I do agree. However - to stay in your picture - we are only at dawn of long day, hopefully AMD can enjoy some breakfast soon to make it to lunchtime.
In Jerrys times this company was never able to execute excellently much longer than a year or so. But now its Hectors game, which looks to be played way more careful - but hopefully much more steady as well.
K.
wbmw Joe Osha from Merril used to say the same thing, quarter after quarter
Yeah. I did as well. Maybe Joe expected AMD to come back to a competitive product-mix way sooner - as I did.
You know stuffing the channel for increasing market shares works perfectly as long as users buy what the channel has to get rid of later. As soon as users demand something else, it can become really ugly.
So if AMDs offer in Q3 will be even more convincing than today (look at a flood of new products to be announced within the next couple of months and at more aggressive price moves) there is a fair chance to run into big trouble building inventory now.
However, I sure hope Intel will do what Dan Niles expects: Short term it prevents the AMD common to be destroyed on Friday, medium term it will be a lesson to learn for the channels: Even this market is driven by demand and not by an Almighty Santa Clara.
K.
Dan Niles on Intels Mid-Quarter Update
http://www.e-insite.net/electronicnews/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA302786&stt=000&a....
Very nice read. And nice wording for what it is really about: In a nutshell, although he knows Intel already stuffed the channels in Q1 he believes it would further be able to increase channel inventories in Q2 to offset a weak quarter.
Hmm, that could well be. AMD will have to follow, otherwise there will too much Intel-inventory in the channels in Q3 that anybody would like to sell AMD stuff. Which otoh counteracts AMDs efforts of cleaning the channels recently. Another place between a rock and a hard place for AMD...
K.
wbmw re: Common "knowledge"
of today is called common error later very often, history tells.
K.
Benchmarketing
http://www.3dnewsnet.com/comments.php?reviewID=284
In a nutshell: There is no such thing as independent Benchmark-Suites.
(What's new?) K.