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Will be interesting to see how it all pans out. How far will the eventual trial start announcements and other potential PR push up share price and help limit dilution...
True, so we have an upper limit LPC dilution defined.
As F1ash points out, it seems very few, including those working hard to find negatives, read and record the information available in SEC filings and instead prefer to proliferate unfounded rubbish.
It makes you go hmmm!
61,864 on open @ 4.510.
Why would that not make any sense?
Followed by the usual small volume walk down.
The final dilution percentage from the LPC agreement we cannot calculate without knowing the future evolution of the Anavex share price. Consequently, even with honest maths, there is no way to know at this point how little or how much final dilution may be.
The LPC agreement per design will take time to drawn down, $50,000 worth of shares every other trading day, or more when PPS reach certain levels. We know that the first $24M took about 1 year to drawn down).
The hope and expectations of many here is that PPS will rise with significant PR well before all the funds have been raised through the LPC agreement.
As I said before, I believe the LPC agreement, and as we hope to see management strategy using it, will turn out to result in relatively lean dilution.
With your insights into Biotech, I would expect you to expect dilution.
Having said that in my opinion the LPC agreement and they way Anavex is using it may turn out to be a relatively moderate form a dilution compared some I have seen.
Anavex have $25M left to raise from the first $50M LPC prospectus still to draw down in full.
The LPC agreement further provides for another $50M, which like at the past AGM the company could ask shareholder to approve.
I submit that $100M plus existing cash as well as various government and foundation grants will cover the trials as stated by the company.
I base this opinion on facts stated by the company in PR and SEC filings.
So Seventh it was all dandy then, let's hope the other stock beginning with 'A' that we follow eventually goes the same way.
Agreed the rationale assumption has to be that data is at least ok and the silence has a reason to eventually be revealed.
I have tried and came up with equally lame ideas
Eh we have those 5 weeks, they were right at the beginning.
Yes and as far as I know it was the first time FDA management eventually overruled scientific opinion in favour of patients, parents and caregivers testimony in a very public way - it will probably be made into a Hollywood film one day.
It is possible, but if you read up on the Eteplersin story you will understand how this unique drama unfolded.
Ah ok, I was desperately trying to read the slides on my phone and they don't enlarge.
Don't think Sinking Alpha has had any influence on vtv's slide 9.
We have approval in 375 days?
Despite VtV currently running a large AD P3 trial and having a promising diabetes programme too, their market cap is less than half of Anavex's.
So not sure we can conclude that Anavex is being overlooked by the market based on trial size or stage.
Any other suggestions?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4106591-vtv-therapeutics-vtvt-presents-rodman-and-renshaw-19th-annual-global-investment-conference
Slide 9, interesting how Anavex is not mentioned as just as unique as vTv with their RACE approach. Anavex being the only company with a Sig-1/Muscarin drug in clinical development.
Is that because they don't know about Anavex, they discount A2-73 as not being up there with the top programmes, or they are scared along with the rest of Alzheimer's hopefuls?
It may also be important to Anavex that with the new FDA rules patient and caregiver testimony could carry more weight than before raising prospects of approval without fully supportive data. A la what happened recently with the approval of Sarepta's Eteplersin for DMD.
I am hopeful for Alzheimer patients that you are right. But, in case the volatility of the super responder scores continue beyond 57 weeks, then it could also pull the average down. In my opinion we just don't know until we see the longitudinal data.
Of course the totally of data no doubt support the promised P2/3 trial. Regardless of exactly what the data turns out to be, I look forward trials starting.
It could and your thought may be supported by this quote from MacFarlane
To me, seeing real improvements to patients is much more important than seeing a statistically significant improvement on a rating scale.
Seeing people regaining abilities is far more powerful and important than that.
I believe we see a lot of variability in the A2-73 MMSE scores, not least in the super responder graphs - too much to infer that the upswing towards the end must mean cure. The pooled data averaged appears to show stabilisation or there abouts.
I am bit uncomfortable with the 52+5 week data and really look forward to more longitudinal data...which, although only perhaps still for 25 patients, will be impressive if it continues to show stabilisation.
Disregarding speculations from waiting for new Cures Act trial design to buyout silence, I wish I knew exactly why we are still waiting for that data?
This seems to show that beyond 6 visits (1 per week, month or year?) the likelihood of any improvement is approaching zero. But what is the context of the chart, natural history with/without SOC etc.
MS was mentioned in Dr. Klamer's abstract for the CNS Summit. Thus, one may assume he would say something about MS, which catalysed board conjecture about Biogen buyout or partnership. Tempting to make such conjecture, but as some mentioned unlikely such news would be delivered by any other than Missling.
One fact is that we do not know just what Klamer said regarding MS, but since there is no PR or SEC filing it is unlikely to have been specific regarding Biogen or other partnership agreements.
Get the feeling no new material info was presented.
A very important distinction to make!
Just another example that board conjecture takes on significant meaning to some. Much better to adjust your expectations according to know facts.
What is so shocking about that?
I don't believe we have any stated fact from the company to support that the strong responders were on
mono therapy of 2-73
MS and Biogen?
Not much other than showing I can speculate too. But as much as I'd like PR based on the many speculative ideas, I do not expect it unless the company has published information supporting such expectation.
A speculation too far for me, but feels like there are details and avenues to justify the use of Anavex Plus. For starters the small element of Donepizil would be less of an issue regarding it's otherwise less than good safety profile.
Well if I were to allow myself to speculate, then -
Pfizer has been earning good money on Aricept (Donepizil) over the years, but it has gone off patent. With the Anavex Plus patent in hand, is that an opportunity Pfizer can afford to overlook...?
Yes for many the CNS Summit raised high expectations of PR, but not for me.
As I've said previously I only have knowledge to of PRs regarding 3 trials starting this year. Those will be good enough for me.
If two or all three of those trial PRs do not materialise we have something to worry about for sure.
Lots of other potential PR situations, but not some I sit around expecting.
Were you present to hear and see Klamer's presentation?
Well I for one did not expect PR today. I expect only what I have information to reasonably expect. 3 trials initiated this year!
Is it the Pfizer rumour holding the share price up on day where some had expected per-conference PR?
I think it will subject to an 8-K filing.
Oh damn I knew I shouldn't sold, but someone here was just so convincing.
Could still release PR just before the 11am presentation. Happened before, but as I mentioned in another post my PR expectations are centred on the 3 trials to start this year.