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There’s a big difference between anger and frustration.
Hope,
You are entitled to your feelings and I do not have the same emotional experience as you have had with this company. I try not to let my emotions get the best of me and wait until I know what went on before I will go out and complain about management. I do think that once they PR'd DL on October 5, it was clear to everyone that they missed the initial timeline and we now where in new and unchartered territory.
Even though I am still not sure the Dave Innes is right about point number three, the major issue here is that they think they have to relay bad news to shareholders. So unless they are still blinded It does look like they have good results in the trial. I know we have to take everything that is being reported on this message board with a grain of salt, but this looks like really good news to me.
I think the free version has 15 daily posts. Thanks for posting against your personal instincts.
I will gladly send you $13 so you can have unlimited posts. Your knowledge is worth every penny. Thanks for all your info.
That is an amazing exchange. Thank you so much for relaying this. I understand the hesitation people have in doing so, because of the past history on this board.
I have continuously stated that I hope they are taking their time getting this right and not screwing it up. I am glad he mentioned that.
I agree 100% that we need to stay calm and let them do their job. It is easy to get emotional as many have a good amount of their money invested in this company.
Again, thanks for this synopsis of your call.
I agree that I too find that they have not been forthcoming with news. I have not been involved in this company for very long (This summer), so I obviously do not have the same emotional experience that many of the longs have. During the first few months, they did release a lot of information (July-Oct. 5). It seems like once DL was announced, things got serious and they changed their corporate philosophy on releasing information. I would think that would be based on advice from their counsel. These are very difficult times for a company (see below). They have to walk a fine line in regard to the communications they have with people not involved in the process. I would love for them to have dispensed any information the past 10 weeks, but I am giving them the benefit of the doubt as they are in unchartered waters and I prefer they don't make mistakes that could open them up to shareholder derivative suits or screw up their message to us.
NOTE: I was the CEO of a company that got acquired by a publicly traded company. During the process, which took a few months, I literally did not venture out much as I was worried about talking to people and saying things that could have an influence on the SP of the publicly traded company. Most of my friends were surprised when the announcement actually happened. I knew a few of the people working for the other company, so most of the negotiations would take place in a private residence, just so there would be no rumors by me showing up almost daily at the company's location. It was like walking on eggshells.
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that NWBO will be bought by BP. The company will simply be too valuable for any BP to not scoop up at some point. I don't see this happening in the immediate future. I think management have a certain price and that BP will have to wait until they can justify that price to their shareholders, regardless of whether they know it is worth paying the super high premium. NWBO will work towards a market cap that will get them to the value, where BP can justify their price. Even LP and management will understand that at a certain point, it will be irresponsible not to sell out. I think a realistic timeline is 18-36 months from today. They need to get approval, production and commercialization going for them to get to that market cap.
I hope I am wrong and once we start on this journey, we get to $12-15M Market Cap before then, at which time I think they might be open to a sale, for a premium around 100% (Which is a bit high, but not out of the realm of possibility, considering the potential future value of NWBO).
GLTA
If that's what you feel, then you should sell your shares and enjoy your profits. It doesn't seem to fit your personality to be involved in a company like this. I would be surprised if the warrant holders have not sold part, if not all, of their shares (not warrants, though according to Thermoo, he has bought warrants from other warrant holders, so some warrant holders have exited too) to make sure they are playing for house money. The 20M+ shorts are likely also a lot of warrant holders taking a covering short position. The rest of the warrants are held by insiders. You can scream and cry all you want, but not extending the warrants will have little to no effect on the SP. It has already been factored in by serious investors. The only people this should scare are day traders as they would have to take a step back and watch the game play out. You can see that has already begun as the volume has been very low recently.
It baffles me that some investors feel they are being 'shorted' by management despite the SP being up well over 400% since this summer. I have to admit that I would have liked to have seen the beginning of the TLD story some weeks ago, but that is likely due to my own emotional expectations and not due to any realistic timeline. I try not to write any posts when these emotions take over, like when there's no news before opening or the hour following close of markets. I have taken a step away from this board, because it is too easy to get riled up in the emotional roller coaster created by some posters. I do not see any of the FUDsters posts (Thanks IHUb), but some of the ones that I thought was careful and thoughtful people, have turned out to be haunted by their own emotional expectations and I just don't want to participate in that.
I am as positive as I have ever been in regard to the future of my investment in this company, thanks to some amazing posters on this board, and the talks I have outside of this board with people who knows the industry and whom I greatly respect. I will be in this through commercialization of DCVax, so I am of the firm belief that the daily SP is nothing but a snapshot on a very long timeline.
If they were looking for 500% returns, then they have already sold their shares in this company.
Good for you. Hope you made some money. Biotech is not for everyone.
YES, let the warrants get out there. Majority held by long term investors and insiders. Let's just play this out the most straightforward way.
Don't think so, the last one had the 8-K on 11/2 and warrants were due 11/1
I just don't see the SP tanking, regardless of when we get news. Anyone who does just an iota of due diligence will see that this company is undervalued and is about to go public with this news. I don't see the market getting flooded with shares, even if we don't get an extension on the warrants. I am not ruling out news that the warrants will be pushed a few months, but the impact will be much less than what some are expecting if they are not.
He is part of a group of investors who own warrants. He likely bought some from one of the other investors in his group.
As a warrant holder, were you part of the negotiations during the last extension talks (NOV.1)? I understand that you can't discuss whether any talks/negotiations are ongoing, so just wanted to know about the last round.
I hope you are right. I also think they have had time to prepare for this for some time. That they underestimated the time the statisticians took, is a bit disappointing, but it was out of their hands, so not something they could have prepared for.
I agree totally with your statement that we should get more information.
Then I sit down and try to come up with a statement that wouldn't be perceived as negative news and fodder for the people working against the company. I just can't seem to find a way that says, "We were not aware of the time it would take during these tough times to get the work done by the statisticians. We are working as hard as we can to get you Top Line Data.", without it being perceived as negative. I also understand that they are leaving us all hanging without information. It is a catch 22 IMHO, for which they have obviously decided on the latter. I don't really know which one I would prefer, but is grateful that the SP has not suffered too much. If they had chosen the information route, we might be better off, but I can't say that's for sure. They could have released news unrelated to the trial, such as "Sawston is almost ready to start production", but that might be construed as a forward looking statement that could be used against them at a later time. If you have any suggestions of things they could have said, I hope you voiced that in your conversations with DI.
I, personally, hope that they are using this time to get their ducks lined up in a row, but I don't know if that is true either.
I understand that people can, with probable cause, label me as a company apologist, but I will be first in line to speak up, should we find out they screwed up. At this time I just don't know enough about what is going on behind the scenes to criticize their behavior, other than to say that they definitely should have known better when they issued their PR's and should have left any timelines, even though I don't think that they were definitive statements, but merely what they 'would like to have happen'.
As for what happened prior to DL, I am less worried about. They are in a completely new situation and this is not like previously when they were working blindly to get the trial done.
Thanks for that info.
My only comment was that your statement came across like it was factual, which it is not. I do take your view into consideration as you have been through this in another field. I truly appreciate people like you posting here, as it adds a lot to mine and other people's knowledge base. My concern is just that people will take your comments as factual. My intention was not to discredit you or your experiences, but merely point out that they are based on your experience and your opinion and not based in actual facts regarding NWBO's situation.
Thermoo wrote:
"There was a perception that a the 11/1 warrant overhang was depressing the market and unnecessarily distracted from a focus on company fundamentals / top line data.
I had ~60M that were free to exercise on 11/1. Received an extra 3% warrants at $1.48 strike, 13.5 month term."
With all MB posts, you need to be a little skeptical about the identity and truthfulness of posters, but this is the only thing I have to go by, and I do think Thermoo is truthful. The fact that he/she either paid for watching the last LL presentation or is within the field of Neuro Oncology and had free access, shows he/she is a serious poster.
I hope he/she is a neuro oncologist and that he/she is supporting this company because he/she has seen the effects of DCVax-L on his patients, but that is just my hope and not based in anything he/she has posted. :)
They were not. One of the warrant holders, who extended, mentioned the strike price for the additional warrants. I seem to remember the strike price was around $1.50.
So you are saying that based on posts here on this message board (By posters I have the utmost respect for but who can only use their past experiences in other fields than immunotherapy, and not knowing what is actually going on) You can deduct facts that are certain?
Past performance is not a guarantee of future actions. While I agree that they have been careless with their time frames in the past, that is not anything other than prior actions and not current facts. I am not saying it doesn't create a reason to be suspect, but it is not factually indicative of anything that is currently taking place.
I agree that there's a way for the warrants to get extended even if company is unblinded. The first step is obviously to make sure any insiders are not getting compensation for their extension. The second, and likely the most difficult, step is to determine the strike price for any additional warrants given out as compensation for the extension.
I wish I could find the post that mentioned the strike price of the 3-3.5% warrants extended to the warrant holders last time for their extension. I believe someone mentioned $1.50 or thereabouts. Those 'bonus' warrants are probably not yet in the positive if I remember correctly regarding the strike price. It was clear that the warrant holders who did not agree to the extension did not like the strike price of the warrants they were going to receive for the extension.
If they are unblinded and are still trying to get the warrants extended, they cannot tell the warrant holders that the insiders are not getting additional warrants for their extension, as that would reveal that they are unblinded and that the results are, with a very high likelihood, positive.
I would assume that if they are unblinded, the strike price negotiations are VERY difficult for the company. They cannot offer a low strike price as that would be enriching a small group of investors. I would believe that a high strike price would be non-negotiable for some of the warrant holders. I still think that the only way this can be done is by agreeing to an average of a certain number of trading days post a TLD announcement, which again would dissuade some of the warrant holders to agree to the extension. I am glad that I am not company during this as they have to be extra careful. I do find comfort in the fact that they have very competent councel.
Just because some people here are suggesting that the company 'COULD' be doing something that would be illegal, because the posters do not know of the illegality, does not mean the company is doing that or even considering that.
The company is well advised by one of the biggest and most competent law firms in this country.
This is fodder for the shorts and FUDsters, who live in an alternate reality where they continuously posts outrageous claims that have absolutely no facts to support them. I fortunately do not see these posts on my feed as I have taken full advantage of InvestorsHub's amazing features. I do happen to read a few when posters I follow responds to these claims. It does make me giggle at times, but those fun moments are not worth the time to read through the rest of their worthless posts.
Agree. I just wonder if they would have had to declare that in the last 8-K. I know a few people have mentioned that such future agreements is not required to be disclosed in the 8-k, but has not posted any facts supporting that. I personally would find that hard to believe.
You can't be serious! It makes no difference where the ownership interest (Shares) are traded. Buying shares directly from the company is a way for company to raise money. If they are sitting on non public information, they are not allowed to do that. Disclosing inside information to the potential buyers does not make this less illegal.
I am really appreciative for some of the very qualified posters we have here. One thing these posters do is making sure that what they post are labeled qualified opinions, which should be taken with a grain of salt. I have always focused on not making any assumptions, but to rely on statements of facts. Maybe is my legal education that is the reason for that. I do find the posts that show experiences with these processes, though in other fields, very helpful in my assessment of the process we are currently undergoing.
I am fairly certain that I will or have been called a company apologists, because I have mentioned that people who are making completely baseless accusations should relax and be patient.
The truth is that NONE OF US have any knowledge of what is going on behind the scenes. Even the statements of Dave Innes in various conversations with people on this board has not provided anything remotely related to facts. I find the (mis)interpretations of his comments rather amusing and it is clear that these are based on the persons pre-conceived notions of what is going on, which again is based on what that person wishes is going on.
I find that the attacks on the company, based on individual investors expectations of what should happen are ridiculous at this moment in time. None of you have ever been involved in a process like what NWBO is currently going through. I am not saying that it is not prudent to attack the company when we know more, if they have acted in ways that would be inappropriate or in other ways have messed up. I will be the first person in line to call them out if the underlying facts are warranted to do so. I am saying that what we currently know, which is so very little, does not put anyone in a position where these attacks are warranted.
If you are continuously complaining about management without knowing anything about what they are working on or processes they are going through, you are acting on your own emotions and not the managements incompetence. As I mentioned above, the management could be completely in over their head and acting incompetent, but that is something that we will discover when we get more information. That is not something anyone knows at this time.
Your need to know is not a reflection of a failure by management, but a failure in your level of expectation, based on what YOU FEEL/THINK should be happening.
What we all do know or should know is that the likelihood that NWBO will be able to help patients in the future is high and that many people are enjoying a life that they would not be able to had they not been treated with DCVax-L.
I personally am going to withhold my opinions on whether management is doing what they need to be doing until I know what is actually happening behind the scenes. We will find out when they are ready to tell us.
Please let me know what their policy is. We all agree that ideally, we would like to see NWBO have a nice period of time to get to tell their story to the public. I just don't fear the situation where the warrants are not extended and they start telling their story next week or the following weeks.
I highly doubt that there's a lot of shorting going on in this stock other than warrant holders short covering their investment. 20M shorts is not significant, and would be a normal short covering number with the amount of warrants we have.
Until I see an 8-k, I will not assume anything. As has been discussed relentlessly on this board, if they are unblinded, that will create a myriad of issues that they will have to overcome, in order to do the extensions. Regarding the effect on the SP, I will agree to disagree.
I agree that people are too worried about a reverse split. When done to a stock that is ascending, it can actually have a good influence on the SP. for most part, a reverse split is done by companies who have a descending SP and are going in the wrong direction, which is why the stats are skewed to the negative when looking at reverse splits.
I know I am not alone, but I really have no issue with the company if they DO NOT extend the warrants. A large number of them are insiders. Another big chunk are so called friendly/longs. I assume the rest of them (as well as some of the longs) have short covered their initial investment already. Those shares will eventually available anyway, so we might as well get them freed up. Most serious investors are looking at the picture with these shares included already.
I understand that for some investors who are all in on this stock worry about the daily SP, as they are selling off to cover expenses, but in the long run, these warrants will be rather insignificant.
I highly doubt that the SP will drop significantly if they do not extend the warrants. The vast majority of larger investors are in this stock for the long term ride and believe in the science. I see some people here, who are saying that we will drop 25-30% if they are not extended. That is fantasy. There's a big waiting game going on and most of the worried investors have already reduced their positions. The key number is MC and it doesn't matter if the shares are on the market or tied up in extensions, that number is the same either way.
Anders, He was not disrespecting your country. He was purely mentioning that the legal theories are different in the US compared to where you are admitted to practice law. I have a JD and I have also run a publicly traded company located in an EU country (Multiple countries within the EU in fact). I don't want to continue the '4 day rule' discussion, but he is right that it is irresponsible to try to persuade investors to rely on legal news on a message board from an attorney (even a good one like yourself) whether licensed here in the US or abroad.
That's the million dollar question. It likely does take some time for such a long trial to get the numbers in order. We are in the middle of a pandemic. There's a few secondary endpoints. After the release by the statisticians, there's also some work for the advisory board et al.
Other than that, there's a lot of situations that could be happening behind the scenes and that they need to line up in order to be able to tell their story once the TLD news is released.
Between Nov. 6 and today. Other than would can be deducted from Dave Innes and his conversations with people on this board, there's been no public indications from anyone involved that they have finished their work.
From what I remember, clinicaltrials is run by the National Library or some similar organization.
The volume is still very low, but the rise could be based on LL's presentation if she hinted at news being imminent or anything else to that fact. She might even have said they were unblinded with a huge smile on her face.