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That was one of the mistakes that i did make. Another was that i had gotten so emotionally involved with the stock, ridding it up through 3 or 4 splits, watching it fluctuate $40 dollars per week, I had become desensitised to the dangers of the stock market. Not being experienced, I sat back and always believed that the price was going to go back up, not realizing that, that sickening feeling in my stomach was actually the ground rush as i was riding this "wounded bird" in. Eventually, pulled the handle and looked up, I had a full chute (new lessons learned, new experiences) and walk away.
My saving grace, never borrowed money to invest.
Brez
Dane, my shares of JDSU went from $250 to my "couldn't believe it" sale level of $2.00. I learned a lot that year! School is never free, sometimes, it is expensive.
Brez
Time is everything. No one keeps silence without a purpose. Generally, I feel that the ones that have something big, tend to be more silent than the ones that may have a little something but boast all the time.
This reminds me of the .Com in the 90s. Every little company that really had nothing were boasting everyday on CNBC and phenomenal amounts of money were thrown at them. In my home town of Ottawa, Nortel and JDS Uniphase were kings, until 65,000 employees were laid off. Don't get me wrong these two companies had a good product, but the future demand wasn't there. A friend of mine's father engineered a fiber optic transfer box of some kind and was bought out for $340 million 6 months or so before nortel dropped like a wounded bird. Oil on the other end will be required in record number for "our" forseeable future. The big players are tight liped (including ERHE) about what they believe is in the jdz why? Very simple in my mind.
"Loose lips sink ships"
Why brag about how good you have it or your neighbour has it if you will probably try to buy them out. Or fear that some politician will try to renegotiate their contract (bribes).
In my own work dealing with $200 million dollar contracts, companies involved were always tight lipped. The Canadian Government never wispered a words of any decisions unless they absolutaly had too. Massive amount of pressures would come from other Governments whose national companies were in fear of loosing contracts. The more information that was prematurally released, the more problems we would have, the more problems we would have the longer the delays.
Don't make any mistake, if their is oil in the JDZ (there is), and American and Chinese companies are involved (there are). Then the government of STP and Nigeria are under constant diplomatic bombardement from those government which are acting on their national companies behalf. I have seen this type of pressure for much much much less money.
Having rambled on about a whole bunch of stuff, I will sum up.
Silence is ok, it just means that our BOD is busy working on deals and not PR. Because PRs at this junction would be meaningless since they may be superceeded by events before the electronic ink is dry!
JMHO
Brez
BB, I believe what you believe is correct!
Brez :)
Well, let's not forget the 300+ post in 72 straight hours. Where liberal dose of doubt were seasoned with a hint of Bash! That was before the appointements, but fortunately it did allow a few readers to notice the change in writing style, tone, syntax etc.
We use to use Mongo as the barometer for good news, maybe M (which ever shift shows up ) can now be used as well.
Either, it is entertaining! Isn't time for a new riddle?
Brez
Spec, looks like the "C" team is on weekend duty. Or maybe "B" team turned in their wings 'cause it couldn't come up with the goods!!
Either way, the M of old is no longer with us. He just set up shop for the rest of them and now is probably on to new stocks. Guys like that don't come cheap I'm sure, and can't afford to stick around forever. Setting up his/her credibility else where as we speak.
Meridian, how's your new Toshiba laptop doing? mine is awesome!
Brez
Admitted to be a basher, and demonstated to be a deceiptfull "team".
JMHO
Brez
LOL!!!**
Brez
yep!
Brez
Thanks,
I have been waiting patiently to ask "the" question for weeks now. Some of last night post did not match the syntax, tone etc. of previous post. So I threw it out there....
someone else said this...its the little things.
Brez
PS. Once a Mac owner...you know you've got a Mac (There isn't that many of us out there!!)
Dane, I am not of the same opinion. My reasons were stated in my summation post this morning at 2:38 am. Including the previous post that I used to derive my opinion. Unfortunately, I must have accidently crossed a line which resulted in my lenghty summation to be deleted, and I am ok with that. The board moderators do have a lot on their plate, and I will always give them the benefit of the doubt, after all, I am a guest.
My opinion is based on the following posts read in the order presented.
27 April
posts numbers: 47342,343,345,348,398, and 412.
31 March
posts numbers: 38666, 675,678,686, and 690
Your Trully
Brez
BB. It is too bad, because it did take me a while to put that post together.
Brez
Thanks, I guess my summation was deleted, perhaps it was to pointed and directed at an individual. My apologies for that.
Readers can review the sequence of events on their own. Unfortunately, this sequence will be forgotten by tonight, while my summation would have been on the books for a while.
Cheers
Brez
Maybe because we all read both boards?
Brez
Instructmba, I don't think Meridian(s) will be replying tonight. I think they will take the rest of the night off to regroup and deal with the latest fumble.
Brez
Don't you hated when the "A" team is on vacation, and the "B" team as a few seemingly off the wall questions to answer?
I personally hate going to my boss's meetings without pre-briefs.
But its hard to remember everything one wrights or says on the fly.....when one uses basic fraternization and befriending techniques, you have got to take notes, it realy pays off, 27 days later.
the things that makes you go mmmmmmmmmmm....
Brez
No sweat, I actually go by Brez.
Brez
PS read post 38678 and 38690 dated 3/31/06 only 300ish Meridian posts ago
Yes IDCC.......I know that M bought a Mac....
I know that I do not own a dell....
The Meridian of 3/31/2006 knew that he had just bought the top of the line Macbook pro laptop which has only been available since March of this year.
Perhaps, better handover briefs between typers (day/night shift) would avoid silly mistakes like this......
Brez
OT: Hi Meridian, how is your new Dell laptop treating you? Mine is awesome!
Brez
tryoty,
I believe the letters were given in morse code, therefore it might or might not have been in capitals.
Brez
Alright!!! It's done, I'll have my wife tie me up to a chair, so that I cannot trade! She will refresh the computer screen every ten minutes, but no matter how much I beg her to release me she will not, but she will tighten the ropes!
I'll be ready! Bring it on and don't bring it weak!!!!
.....mmmm.....better get a safety word......
Brez
.....mmmmmm...Aphrodite does kind of sound good.....
Happy Easter!
Brez
Its a line from a movie....
"something wicked this way comes!"
Don't read to much into it. Oilphant has just seen one or two movies, that's all!
Brez
I honestly don't know. Why? Because I have no clue how much oil there is down there!
When I put my hard earn money on the line, I asked myself two questions.
1) Do I think the PPS is going to up. .....yes
2) Do I trust EO and will he do good for me......yes
Therefore, I trust that EO will have a good number for us. He has already shown is colours with the results that we have, I have extended his term with my money.
But, the minute I have info (real) I plug it in my spreadsheet and that gives me the low range. Currently I plug in 1B in block one, with one assumption, 50% straddle in block 2. I have my lowest value in the range (so happens to be where we are at right now).
Speculation gives me my high range. Currently, I would be dissapointed if the PPS for buyin would be less than $10. I sound like a spoiled brat! But I believe that we are worth more than $10 in the future.
Brez
Sorry, no do you have a post #? Busy week.
Brez
Red, I agree.
Basically if you were to use any of the many valuation methods presented on the board, to include my own. It is plain to see that the future prospects are far more than $5 PPS. So, the question is if someone was to offer a buyin price, how much would they be willing to gamble on future reserves?
This is where my thoughts about the Chinese having lots of money and not much strategic reserves. When your customer wants oil, you have to give him oil. The Chinese culture does not live in the now, they live and make decisions for the long hawl. Therefore, I find it totally acceptable that they are currently extrapolating the amount of reserves that they maybe getting their hands on by offering top dollar for a buyin with ERHE.
How much is a difficult question for us to answer, but I am willing to bet that EO and B have been looking very closely at the structures combined with their knowledge of what is happening in block one, they can guestimate a low and high range. At this stage, like Spec 29 said, they will not entertain a fair value, neither would I. They would, however, entertain a strategic bid, which would offer them a 5 to 10 year down the road value.
North of $5, you bet.
Minimum $10 I think.
$15 perhaps,
For dreams sake, if their was 5 BBLs per block 1,2,3,4. I plug that into my basic valuation spreadsheet and I get the following PPS
Based on price per barrel reserves.
$3/barrel = $12.82 PPS
$4.5/b=$19.24PPS
$8/b=$34.20PPS
Using Meridian NetNet 9.5%
$50/barrel of oil= $18.55
$60/barrel of oil=$24.37.
What does EO think? I think, he thinks its more than $10 PPS!
Brez
Red, I agree with everything, but I believe the buying that we saw was from insider's edging their bets on forthcoming news.
It's very easy for friends to sit back and wait for the daily update from Oilphant at 15:38!
Is anybody, really going to look very hard at potential insider trading on an mostly unknown OTCBB AmericanNigerian company? Like it was written a few years ago in a Houston paper, investors have a chance of getting in this sky scrapper at the ground floor. Once the elevator gets past the 69th floor, no one will care about the shoving around in the basement!
Brez
nwtf..
No more and no less than the binary, hexo63, chess board or 51/49 message. But like many others, if I were to give cryptic messages, they would follow a certain flow pattern, whether it is true or not.
sinopecbuyinsrs
biggernewstocome
look at the playing board
just one player taking out another player on theboard
51 home : 49 visitors
Our thoughts are being funneled down the buyin path, enough people talk about it and we will have the bernoullie pumping effect, or it will actually materialize.
Just my opinion
Brez
Pinecat....
No sweat brother, we are all winners!!!
Brez
Dane,
A previous Morse code from Oilphant said something like;
SINOPECBUYINSHR
Now we have 51 home(ERHE)/49 visitors (China to US)
My guess is,
If Sinopec is going to carry ERHE share of cost, they might as well get something for it. Money is not the problem for China, its getting resourse to secure a strategic reserve for their future.
We all know that if the JDZ is full of oil, that any small to med size company is a target for buyin/out. Their is no reason why ERHE would not be as well. Therefore its just a matter of price. No matter what we think EO is willing to do with this company, everything as a price. The question is, did he find someone willing to pay it?
Brez
OT: Good Morning Gary...
Everything quiet on the Eastern Front?
Brez
Hi Gary,
You may have been right when you were talking of possible control buying and the bashers on this board were here to make sure that the price would be stabilized in the lower ranges. How long would it take to buy 10% or 71 millions shares? I'd say a few months!
Brez
Dudes...
I'm just sitting here having a beer (belgian) and couldn't help but realize how calm and relax I feel about ERHE as an investment.
Signatures are in, money coming in now all we got to do is wait. Its just a matter of time. Sure their are those that are running margins or have lone sharks running interest or they have to have their daily quotas in trades and they need everything to happen tomorrow, but not me.
I'm off to Vegas tomorow for the weekend, I'll put 20 on black for you guys! Therefore I will surely miss all of last weekends drama, if it repeats!
Cheers
Viva Lost Wages Baby!!!!
Brez
Dane..You got me!**
Brez
Dudes...radio check....that was a joke!
Brez
therefore, 4x100=400 times bigger than a oboe.
or 400 times bigger than OBO1. OBO 1 was said to carry 1B therefore its mor like 400B?
That would be nice but......
brez
Dudes....
You know, I really feel like we are victims of a deception.
When I used to drive on a main road and I could see around the corner the bright colours of a travelling circus tents, I would throw a small juicy deception to my kids, "Hey kids look a the great rabbits over there (as I pointed in the opposite direction)!". The kids would strain their eyes looking for the rabbit and spend the next 45 minute discussing colours of rabbit fur, while I avoided the whole "take us to the circus" thing.
I have been racking my brain all weekend long as to why this % discussion has taken so many posts in such a short time and why our "reporter on the scene" Meridian has devoted a couple of hundreds of posts on this single subject? What are we missing? What do "they" not want us to see? Where is tha Circus Tent? Is it the shape of a Pringle?
No one posts so frequently on a single subject unless the objective of those posts is to keep the majority of the brains of this board occupied in reading, deciphering, exploring and responding to all the bunny trails that develop from them.
Any one? Where is the Circus Tent? And why does Papa not want us to see it?
Brez
This is what I look at......
1. Signed rights
2. Free carry (read just sit and wait)
3. multiple successfully orchestrated turn of events
4. Skilled personnel (Mr. B)
5. Powerfull partners
6. 100% drilling success rate in the JDZ
7. Lot's of "hush hush" or negotiation
8. Delayed official release of results for "better interpretation"
9. I have time to wait and see.
10. potential 800' thick of pay dirt
11. potential a 50 mile diameter or pringles shape structure (either way its going straight to my thighs!)
All discussions of valution is entertaining but in the end, the market will set the price on known facts and not rumours. When the facts will be known, our PPS will go up.
Brez
OT.Good morning Gary, Dude long night! I'm half way through my latte, hence my first trial at typing!
Brez
Will send you private emails tomorrow.
Good night/morning
Brez