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Double Take: TL Trader
The daily and 30 minute charts for NDX have nearly identical structure. What happens on the 30 min chart might imply the longer term future of the daily chart.
Its a beautiful thing.
Oh, so you think a wave 2C for LEH is possible.
Yeah, that's a possibility I agreed with.
I'm not sure about your starting point for LEH waves.
Are you considering the drop from the $80 are to be a correction in a much larger bullish wave?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=LEH,uu[m,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9...
The March '04 highs to May '04 lows look like a 5 wave decline. For that to be corrective, it would need to be part of a larger correction since a single 5 wave is not a correction.
I would consider as a low probability the price rising above $80 if the multiweek wave 2 has not finished.
The long term elliott wave chart (10 year) shows a multimonth wave 4 triangle that started in early 2001 and ended in late 2002. Triangles typically occur in wave 4 positions in stocks.
From there a pretty convincing multimonth wave 5 (ending diagonal) developed that ended in early 2004. So the larger wave count implies a multiyear downtrend at least to the $40 range is due.
I checked for the decade long wave 5 as a possible ending diagonal. Technically it is not since the 1998 high (end of multimonth wave 1) was $42.06, and the 2002 lows (multimonth wave 4) was $42.47. It does mean the wave structure is weak.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=leh&time=&freq=
LEH and MER leading the way down.
LEH and MER show a convincing start to the bearish multiweek wave 3 down. LEH broke below multiweek wave 2C last week. The best bullish count would be a double zigzag.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=leh,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La...
Judging by the charts of these 2 giant financial institutions, things could get crashtacular this summer.
Going short at this point is just like going long in October '98. All you would need is a list of stocks and a dartboard. A monkey's advice would produce favorable results.
Questions for cyclists:
Some of your cycle work indicates a possible turn late next week, and one has a turn in July.
Is there an alternate count that would more closely align with my latest wave count of a major turn beginning on Monday or Tuesday of next week?
Update on triangles in DOW, NASDAQ, SAP500
One more day of data sure helps read the chart patterns.
The ascending triangle I proposed for the DOW could have an alternate count of wave 4 down between opening Wednesday 6/9 to close Monday 6/14. Wave 5 ending diagonal has been unfolding since then. Within wave 5 little wave e could finish up at Monday's opening.
There is some confusion about the charts and data. The high registered on Wednesday 6/9 in the DOW is 10466 according to open high low close data. The high registered on Friday 6/18 in the DOW is 10471 according to open high low close data. This would make either a running triangle or ending doagonal case valid. My prefered wave count is the ending diagonal since high-highs/ lower-lows took place. The charts, while still showing the same relative position of highs and lows, indicates both highs were much lower.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&time=8&freq=1
The Nasdaq is still showing a symmetric triangle It looks like it is in wave 4e. This would lead to little drop at the opening on monday and a wave 5 rally the rest of the day.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&time=8&freq=1
The SAP 500 looks less like the original wave 4 triangle, and more like the ending diagonal the Dow is showing. The only difference is the SAP500 highs yesterday did not break the highs of Wednesday 6/9.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&time=8&freq=1
How will the markets synchronize? The Nasdaq has the weakest wave 4 of the indexes, and the others show a bearish ending diagonal near complettion. For the the NASDAQ to have a wave 5 with the same bearish implications as the ending diagonals the other indexes are displaying, and end within the same timeframe, its wave 5 will most likely truncate. If it truncates with an ending diagnonal, the trend reversal will be greatly magnified.
Clearstation.com chart website.
The Clearstation website is STILL down. I did find a back door though. Clearstation has some ties with Etrade, so I went to the Etrade site to get a stock quote. From the stock quote result was a link to creating charts by Clearstation. You can still access this feature even if you do not have an account with Etrade. No login is required.
Bigcharts.com had the 10 day range, 10 minute tick chart. The clearstation shart I wanted had 1 month range, 20 minute ticks. Fortunately the 10 day range, 10 minute tick chart had enough range to see the full development of the triangle pattern.
Am I a Jinx?
maybe.
I tried accessing the clearstation website and that was down no matter whose computer / internet connection I tried. Fortunately for me, bigcharts.com was up and gave me enough intraday chart at the 5 minute ticks.
Wave 4 triangles NAZ, DJI, SAP500 starting from last wednesday. Wave d ended and wave e is half over. I expect a slightly lower open, just to break the lower trend line, and a strong rally to the rest of the day in wave 5 of 5. DJI has ascending triangle where Nasdaq and SAP 500 have symmetrical triangles.
NAZ
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=nasdaq&time=8&freq=1
DJI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=nasdaq&time=8&freq=1
SAP500
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=nasdaq&time=8&freq=1
Nikkei market action
The nikkei opened lower and bounced back sharply in morning trade. The wave pattern on the intraday chart could be the beginnings of an ending diagonal as a new high on Wednesday looks like a 3 segment wave. The end of this wave would be early next week, possibly in sync with the western markets.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^N225&t=5d
I'll search around the world for clear elliott waves if ones in the US markets are unclear.
I'm still not applying cycle theory yet
I noticed there are some fibonacci time relationships in the market and this could be one of them.
Mr. Cash,
What about the possibility of a market turn late next week? It would mark a Fibonacci 55 tading days since the April highs.
Covered all shorts for a little porfit.
Taking a small profit, basically covering commissions, does a couple things strategically.
1.) I won't be forced out of a position due to a margin call.
2.) I can short the same stock without worrying about the wash rule.
Something doesn't look quite bearish yet. This rally off mid-May lows looks like a 5 wave UP and wave 3 extended. What I thought was a wave 5 last week was wave 5 of 3. Yesterday looked motive (1 of 5 of 5?). Today looked like consolidation (2 of 5 of 5?).
The Dow was so close to breaking last weeks highs, but there is still room before that happens on the NAZ and SAP500. IF the Dow breaks last weeks highs, I would expect the NAZ and SAP500 to follow. If this is a wave 5 of 5 that the markets are in, then an ending diagonal would provide the best wave to develop that would match Mr Cash's cycles analysis.
I'm super bearish (SB) on the certain stocks in the real estate and finance sectors since those are the recent bubbles that no one thinks will pop. The internet bubble was a good learning experience to profit from whatever bubble followed.
Nikkei in an intraday wave 4 of 5.
It looks like the end of the Nikkei rally could end in the next session as the index pulled back (wave 4) from the opening surge (wave 3) and then started to rally into the clsoe (beginning of wave 5)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=%5En225
What is interesting to observe is how the Hang Seng showed only half the gains of the nikkei, and never challenge last weeks highs.
Germany didn't break last weeks highs. Maybe it is waiting for the US markets to give it a boost.
Nikkei tips NASDAQ's Hand.
The intraday patterns for the Nikkei and the Nasdaq look very similar. The Nikkei just jumped out ahead of the wave count. It's in a 3 of 5, where the Dow just finished a 2 of 5. Last weeks highs should be broken tomorrow. Whether it's an ending diagonal or regular motive wave, the bounce off May lows should end this week.
Nikkei
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^N225&t=5d
Nasdaq:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Eixic
What a day.
Bonds rallied big time.
Stocks had a good run through the early afternoon and then WHAM!!!
Something seems wrong when stocks AND bonds move in sync.
I'm having difficulties counting waves. I wonder if todays action completed waves a and b of a larger ending diagonal to be completed tomorrow?
At least with the NAZ there should be no question about counting wave off May Lows. The Dow and SP500 could have one more motive wave. even then it should only move enough to break last weeks highs.
With charts so muddy, there's got to be a crash in the works. Crashes happen when no one expects then, I guess bears should be included.
4godnwv:
Elliott Wave International has a week or FREE subscription www.elliottwave.com. I read the charts of long term and daily waves for $USD and gold this weekend.
China throws a hissy-fit
The Hang Seng terminated it's bounce rally with a 3% drop yesterday. Though it's difficult to count e-waves on the intraday chart due to the generaous lunch break, I think I see 4 waves down. Volume after the lunch break support the idea of a turn with heavy selling.
The daily stochastic has been overbought the last 8 or so days. The MACD shows decreasing momentum and is about to give a SELL signal. The wide bollinger bands have started to curl in, capping upside advances. The price will most likely move from the upper to lower band befor the pinch is done and widening occurs.
Keep an eye on it tonight. I'm looking for a small drop and 1% rally, or an open 1% higher. Once the 1% bounce is over, get ready for a 6% drop to start. The 6% drop may take two trading days, but it's the overall psychological effect of losing 8% in less than a week for "bluechips" that matters.
intraday:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^HSI&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
daily
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hsi,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...
10 yr TBond in trouble
The yield moved through pinched Bollinger bands, and now the bands are starting to widen to signal a dramatic move in yields. The MACD is signalling a rally in yields/bond sell off. The stochastic chart is nonconforming. It says the bond is very oversold and should rally. Wave count is a mess, but I think there is a global tug of war going on.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tnx,uu[w,a]dacayyay[db][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1....
Quick trade this morning.
Germany dropped more than 1% so far this morning. It dipped below the 50 day moving average. The US markets are pointing lower, but futures still have about 75% more to go before touching the 50 day moving average. Sell/ short the opening this morning and cover when the price touches the 50 day moving average.
Good luck.
TEST again, ugh
I wonder if US investors accelated the trading pattern on Thursday knowing there would be no trading on Friday.
Let's try charts again
SAP
YHOO link & Jobless claims
Let's try the YHOO link again.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=YHOO&t=5d
The jobless claims climbed higher than the last two weeks of dropping combined. There is still no confirmation the initial Jobless Claim number has bottomed. The chart shows today's number is right against the upper channel resistance formed by the tops over the last year. In all likelihood, this trend line will be broken before a clear Elliott wave appears over the next several months.
[chart]bullandbearwise.com/InitialJoblessChart.asp[chart]
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/InitialJoblessChart.asp
Still learning how to use the charting features on this site. It's a great idea.
Investor Psychology Question.
With clear evidence of little elliott waves 1 and 2 down in the major markets, will the markets put their emotions on pause, or will there be a discontinuity when the markets reopen? Support your position.
YHOO: expanding flat wave
There was a clear 5 wave down on Wednesday. An expadning flat started in the last 1/2 hour on Wednesday and looks like a pretty convincing finish today, especially considering the extra 10c gain after hours.
Bond yields walking a fine line.
The bollinger bands are very close. The yield is moving unobstructed, upward along in the upper channel. This indicates a dramatic move ahead, and possibly to higher yields ( a bond sell off). The stochastics indicate a bond rally ahead.
Wave count is tough. See www.elliottwave.com for free 1 week subscription. The Short Term Update features a commentary about the bonds.
Lock and Drop: LMT
Late Monday 6/7 and all today an ending diagonal formed.
This pretty clear on the intraday chart
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=lmt
This will also complete the multi month B WAVE triangle of LMT's "Crash"
Running triangle pattern.
I agree with that idea because it directly answers my earlier question of "How can zig-zags be so motive?"
With that in mind, yesterday and today could have finished an ending diagonal. The sudden pullback and complete retracement in the mid to late afternoon would be waves 4 and 5 of the ending diagonal.
My head is spinning counting the waves in the indexes. Some of the individual stocks look clearer. They are all near an end.
Frank, so multiple degrees are truncating ?
That would signal a sharp reversal tomorrow.
I've got another count for the NASDAQ.
What if wave 3 of 5 completed today shortly before 2PM, wave 4 of 5 completed shortly after 2 PM, and wave 5 rallied the rest of the day possibly into tomorrow?
Wave lengths for the NASDAQ composite would be wave 1 = 36 pts, wave 3 = 25 pts, and wave 5 = 16 pts. Notice how they are the squares of 6, 5, and 4. There is always some mathemagical relationship among the waves.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/intra?tic=2-day&cs=&ci=None&Symbol1=_COMPX&i1...
NASDAQ Composite wave are confusing.
The past couple days the NASDAQ is going higher, but the gaps make zigzags look like motive waves.
Here is the 10 day with 10 min ticks chart:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/intra?tic=5-day&cs=&ci=None&Symbol1=_COMPX&i1...
I'd like to start a wave count from a relative bottom at the close of 6/03. The gap opening on 6/4 would be multiminute waves 1,2, and 3. Multiminute 4 was a flat in the morning. Multiminute wave 5 was in the middle of the trading day to end the 1st wave up in this multiday wave.
Mid afternoon on 6/3 to the close was multiminute 2 of this multiday wave.
Multiminute wave 3 began today 6/7. The afternoon trading this wave is it's extending into 1 or 2 more extended wave 3s.
Tomorrow should be flatter as the excitement wears off. Wednesday maybe wave 5 completes? And bounce is over too?
Second doubts on UTX, LMT forming exp triangle
UTX may be in a multi week wave 4 of a multi month wave 5. The wave proportions over the last 3 months just doesn't look motive.
LMT though looks like it is forming an expanding triangle to connect a zig to a zag. A slight pullback would complete the triangle. The $52 target looks more favorable.
Hurst Cycles and General TA Thoughts.
I'd like some recommendations on books about cycle analysis. The Elliott wave theory focuses on structure, so a time analysis too would maek a complete set of tools.
I've noticed there are many instances of false Buy/Sell signals using TA charts such as stochastics and MACD. These are fixed time tools. E-waves, however, are primarily a structural tool. The time relation between waves 1 and 3 may have a definite ratio, but many times it is not 1 to 1. That is why time based TA tools give off so many false signals.
Hurst Cycles from what I've seen uses several different time periods and superimposes them for a composite expectations of highs and lows. Some posters have been frustrated by such comments as "cycles are great until they don't work.". I think they do work. The present model may not be complete. The present model may work well when using the middle cycle of a series of cycles of the same period. It may be like Fourier Series Analysis in engineering where the approximation is highly accurate in the middle of the timeframe, but wildly off at the ends.
LMT Alternate count
The alternate count for LMT is only slightly more bullish in the last wave. Instead of a triangle in the multimonth wave B, the count could be a W-X-Y. Wave Y could push to $52 to equal the length of Wave W. More caution should be used before establishing a short position or buying options.
UTX e-wave analysis
See link for chart accompanying narrative:
Short Term:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=UTX,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pd20,2!b200!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L...
Long Term:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=UTX,uu[w,a]wacayyay[df][pd20,2!b200!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L...
UTX is in a wave 3 of 3 of 1. The Wave 3 downside target is the $62 area. This is a fib ratio of Wave 1 from the top AND where area the Wave 4 triangle traded around prior to the ending Wave 5 to the top. Wave 3 of 3 has most likely downside target of $71. This is where the fib ratio of wave 1 of 3 AND 200 weekly moving average meet. The daily stochastics indicate a very overbought condition. MACD rising trend is deceleration, indicating momentum is waning.
There may be one more push higher of 75c since the fib retracement for wave 2 of 3 is $86.48 but the high so far is $86.15. Friday closing price is $85.75.
Sorry about the columns being jumbled, but this msg board editor wasn't made for cut/pasting spreadsheet info.
Fib Ratio Price move Beg/End Price
Begin Wave 1 97.84
End Wave 1 83.5
Tot Wave 1 14.34
Begin Wave 2 83.5 Bounced off 200 DMA
End target 1 0.5 7.17 90.67
End target 2 0.612 8.77608 92.27608 91.32 High
Begin Wave 3 90.07
End target 1 1.618 23.20212 66.86788
End target 2 2 28.68 61.39
End target 3 2.618 37.54212 52.52788
Begin Wave 13 90.07
End Wave 13 80.67
Tot Wave 13 9.4
Begin Wave 23 80.67 Retest 200 Daily MA
End target 1 0.5 4.7 85.37
End target 2 0.618 5.8092 86.4792 86.15 high
Begin Wave 33 86.15
End Target 1 1.618 15.2092 74.8608
End Target 2 2 18.8 71.27 Near 200 Weekly MA
End Target 3 2.618 24.6092 65.4608
Lockheed ready to beat a hasty retreat.
We're in a war right now, so you should invest in defense stocks, right? WRONG!. The elliott waves are indicating LMT will experience a major program cancellation. Sikorsky faced a cancellation of the Comanche Helicopter, the one depicted in the Egyptian pyramids hieroglyphics. Naturally, with a monopoly on fighter planes ( F16, F22, F35), the government may have to cancel one of these programs if Boeing or Northrup takes the issue to court. The military also needs to balance it's budget.
Multi month Wave A of this correction occurred between July '02 /$71 and March '03/$40.54. This was a leading diagonal.
Multi Wave B looks a lot like a triangle.
Link to long term charts:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=LMT,uu[w,a]dacayyay[df][pd20,2!b200!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L...
Wave (e) of the triangle is near completion. Wave (e) breaks down to a zig-zag. The zag is forming an ending diagonal. The tops of zag(a) and zag(c) set an upside line of resistance just over $50. Monday LMT could rally to break this resistance, ever so slightly. Afterwards, a sharp drop to $46.50 would start multi month Wave C.
Link to intraday chart of wave (e), zag(c):
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/intra?tic=1-month&cs=&ci=None&Symbol1=LMT&i1=...
The downside target could be all the way back to the $16 area, if a multi month wave 5 of a decade wave finished at $71.
One word of caution. Investors act irrationally, especially when a terrorist attack happens. Should another one happen, LMT could get volatile. It could go up because investors think LMT will get more contracts. It could fall faster because their products and services were inadequate to defend against a second terrorist attack.
QQQ e-waves
The waves for QQQ, NASDAQ 100, and the NASDAQ Composite are too messy using 60 minute ticks for me to say with confidense where the waves are exactly. Even the daily ones have a couple of counts. There are hints of a wave 3 somewhere in that mess, so most of the rally is over.
The following narrative refers to the chart at this link:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pd20,2!b200][vc60][iLp14,3,3!...
To help me out, I'll look at the Bollinger Bands, MACD, and daily stochastics. The Composite shows the Bbands widening, but the price is pulling away from the upper band. The widening anticipates a dramatic price move. The stochastics are pulling away from a very overbought condition. This is a bearish indicator. The MACD difference topped a few days ago and is heading below the zero line. Crossing this line would be bearish.
So with elliott waves near completion, increase volatility, overbought conditions, and waning momentum, the trend is still topping or has a little more to go.