Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Update on triangles in DOW, NASDAQ, SAP500

One more day of data sure helps read the chart patterns.

The ascending triangle I proposed for the DOW could have an alternate count of wave 4 down between opening Wednesday 6/9 to close Monday 6/14. Wave 5 ending diagonal has been unfolding since then. Within wave 5 little wave e could finish up at Monday's opening.

There is some confusion about the charts and data. The high registered on Wednesday 6/9 in the DOW is 10466 according to open high low close data. The high registered on Friday 6/18 in the DOW is 10471 according to open high low close data. This would make either a running triangle or ending doagonal case valid. My prefered wave count is the ending diagonal since high-highs/ lower-lows took place. The charts, while still showing the same relative position of highs and lows, indicates both highs were much lower.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&time=8&freq=1

The Nasdaq is still showing a symmetric triangle It looks like it is in wave 4e. This would lead to little drop at the opening on monday and a wave 5 rally the rest of the day.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&time=8&freq=1

The SAP 500 looks less like the original wave 4 triangle, and more like the ending diagonal the Dow is showing. The only difference is the SAP500 highs yesterday did not break the highs of Wednesday 6/9.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&time=8&freq=1

How will the markets synchronize? The Nasdaq has the weakest wave 4 of the indexes, and the others show a bearish ending diagonal near complettion. For the the NASDAQ to have a wave 5 with the same bearish implications as the ending diagonals the other indexes are displaying, and end within the same timeframe, its wave 5 will most likely truncate. If it truncates with an ending diagnonal, the trend reversal will be greatly magnified.