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well watching yhoo trade a.h., i have to at least say its comforting to see that folks still know how to sell as relentlessly as they've been buying for the last few months.
query. is there some sense to this:
4:07pm 07/09/03 [MEDI] MEDIUMMUNE ANNOUNCES $500 MLN CONVERTIBLE OFFERING
4:07pm 07/09/03 [MEDI] MEDIMMUNE TO BUY BACK $500 MLN IN STOCK OVER 2 YEARS
a convertible offering so that you can buy back your own stock? or is the latter just something to soften the blow of the former, with no obligation to follow through?
er. yah. the half-day.
but they have ignored the econ #s for over 3 months
well, not last wednesday's employment numbers, actually ...
This dump is bad news for shorts.What could YHOO possibly say negative?
initial claims tomorrow a.m., as well as import/export prices.
OT that's the strange thing about inner voices. they never tell you to do noble things, like give to the poor or plant flowers ...
OT reminds me of an exchange with my mom this weekend. the son of a friend of hers, who's my age, was pretty much a "bad boy" as a child - torturing neighborhood cats, that kind of thing. she recently heard that he's now working on wall street. "so it seems like he changed quite a bit", she says to me. me, incredulous: "you're completely wrong. he's found the perfect job."
which is why i have calls ... :-P
though something that will present a real opportunity on the short side at some point: brks. up 5-10% a day lately, and cumulatively nearly 50% in a little over a week.
"pmcs appears to have failed at double top", said the short with too much glee.
intergrity of MSFT
microsoft? integrity? in the same sentence?
the horror! the horror!
microsoft's greatest success is and has always been in the marketing of software, not in its design. and, because the software design was driven by this bizarre kind of marketing (must eliminate all competition through incompatibility), the software has always suffered. (e.g. windows users are stuck with these active-x controls and scripting in e-mail and so forth becuz microsoft wouldn't go with java; and as a consequence they get all these viruses and worms and so forth. the upside, i suppose, is that it keeps symantec in business.)
> So, why are so many reading charts?
specialists do have to respond to supply and demand in the market, and that's what chart reading is pretty much telling you. i think.
but all these guys are doing nazdog stocks, and there there are mutliple competing market makers ...
MSFT might have gleaned a win here, stepping up timing wise and getting out in front of the pack during a time when it might, just might have a lesser effect on its price.
on the other hand, thinking criminally: the "rumor" of the $10B one time dividend from msft that came out of europe over the weekend (not announced by msft, of course), and the ensuing jam job in the nazdog on monday (4.4% on 1.8B shares) and the rise of msft on very negative money flow might all mean that reg f.d. has been suspended temporarily.
hear! hear!
however, msft will get its comeuppance .... personally, i think one of the great surprises of the next couple years will be seeing how fragile the microsoft monopoly really is. although in retrospect, it will have been visible all the time - there's only so far you can go with FUD.
every single stock I have been in eventually doubled since feb march, even though I was in and out for a microsecond
next time, leave a trail of breadcrumbs so we can follow u around.
i'm missing something in the big picture here. with all these little semiconductor companies going parabolic and intel breaching former resistance, the sox is yet to test its recent high at 400. what's providing the negative counterweight to these rising semis?
sure stocks get whacked ... but this is not quite a shorters market ... i thought we could short this rally ... it's just not time yet
indeed indeed. but i suppose my point isn't that you could have shorted that and scalped the 20% in a day, but that both risks and rewards are exaggerated in this market. heck, extr just lost its cfo. its not like their entire engineering team is resigning ...
bullishness is rampant...
BUT! stocks that get whacked, get whacked hard. e.g. extr ...
Volume almost 2B, impressive!
why is that? yesterday's 1.8B was good for 4.4% ...
Dan, how exactly do "they" "synthesize" 382 Net New Highs (that's new highs - new lows) yesterday, and 338 so far today.
well, ya take a little company like brks, e.g., that "everyone knows" is in real trouble and hence has a huge short interest, and then you jam it up 10-20% a day for a couple days. similarly rsas ... at least, those are two on my radar ...
re qcom. yesterday, someone was pointing out very neg money flow in several stocks (e.g. msft, qqq). qcom came up in the top 10 on my list ...
Hulk renege'd on his promise to buy bonds so far to feather the prop (still could come I guess)
well i posted the link to the wsj story about 1-2 weeks ago which included a paragraph that noted that since the time this was aired publicly, the fed had studied the problem and concluded that they probably can't effectively achieve their aims by doing that. (market too big, i think was the conclusion.)
> eh?, i'm glad to run across somebody on these threads that is
> so sure about predicting the future?
hrm. well since my dad and mom both work in the semiconductor industry, there isn't a whole lot of psychic power required here. hell, i even stopped in for "free monday" at dac last month to talk with folks. the only murky bits come from accounting magic and whether the street focuses on number or on "beating estimates".
MSFT has done very little since the first hour. Someone is selling into the move.
smart thing to do. if the reason for the move is a $1/share one time dividend, then anyone who has owned the shares for a day has already collected that much in cap gains.
well, sorry to hear about your loss, but at least it gives me *some* faith that fundamentals matter ... this earnings season should be a minefield in tech ...
> The short answer is that IDCC could be the next Qualcomm.
!!! wow, i haven't heard that since december 1999 when idcc hit 80 and was called "baby qualcomm".
the 5dma p/c ratio has only been higher than we are now on that pullback in may, and before that at the feb and october bottoms.
eh? i see these peaks in september and february, not october and march (where the bottoms were).
> Perhaps it would help if I qualified my usage of ideology into
> prescriptive, (i.e., one's set of ideas about how things should
> be ordered/work), vs descriptive, (i.e., one's set of ideas
> about how things actually are ordered and/or work)?
ah, so by ideology you mean dogma ... perhaps you're a marxist or were in a former life? :-P
i was just thinking of the ideological framework in which you interpret your descriptive analysis. othewise, you're just reacting to it. which is cool, i suppose, if you're a daytrader ...
"i think either you don't understand the markets very well or you're putting ideology before analysis".
this isn't an either/or, is it? perhaps putting ideology before analysis is anathema to a trader (although mlsoft seems to be a counterexample), but analysis has to be informed by ideology, i think. at least for me, i don't see any other way of assessing risk.
or as my momma used to say to me: if all your friends jumped off a cliff, would you do it too?
OT re: tips for XP
the best tip being: uninstall it and install linux.
personally, i've been away from windows programs for so long that, even when they could make my life easier, i'd go for a lesser alternative. but lately if found - surpisingly - that wine (the windows emulator on linux) has progressed so far that, in a real way, you get greater functionaliy on linux than windows. (i.e. the security without the annoyances, plus using software for two platforms on one). and speedwise there's almost no difference (the code is run natively; only the system calls are intercepted ...)
well IF dumb money has sufficiently smartened up, we will see a massive bail out.
and, i'd think, the same with respect to bond funds. although that's perhaps part of what's motivating the mark-up in equities also: mark 'em up in anticipating of john and jane 3-pack rotating out of bonds ... (?)
I used to get a subscription to trim tabs and did not find it very useful in short term trading much less daytrading.
perhaps. that sounds plausible. though my point was that, if you wanna find where "the dumb money is flowing", its probably better to look at the data than to look at how high the SOX has rallied ...
> smart money selling and dumb money buying.
well, if dumb money is correlated to trimtabs fund flow data, then dumb money isn't as dumb as it was for the last two years ... yet. perhaps its the "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me; fool me thrice ... probably borderline solvent at this point ..."
http://www.geocities.com/dollarbear2k3/fundflows.html (chart at the bottom).
inflation!
where art thou?
RELEASE: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge(-0.5%)
FIRST TAKE: The Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) for the U.S. fell to 115.2 in June, the
fifth straight decline in the index. The index is designed to anticipate cyclical
swings in inflation, and June?s reported number indicates an ongoing decline in
inflationary pressures. Elsewhere, the European FIG increased in May as increases
in Spain and Italy offset another decline in the German index.
hey, politics and political commercials belong on the other board.
Careful TJ, if you spend too much time reading this thread, and aren't really careful, the paranoia of the conspiracy nuts can infect you through your monitor.
laff. hey, i'm on vacation and i'm surfing the web, what can i say ...
this much i know: we are never told the truth, because its in nobody's interest to do so. that goes for politics, the markets, whatever.
and its not just paranoia: this is the second time this week that we've had folks coming out to explain a market decline by ascribing it to the acts of some individuals - the put selling for monday, and these.
anyway, if it is paranoia, don't worry about it. it keeps me from making stoopid mistakes: distrust everything.
interesting point. i was wondering myself why everyone is accepting this "mistaken order" of $0.5B in dow futures contracts at face value. a mistake like that can happen and cost the dow 1+%? hrm.
but it sort of goes to show that you probably don't need a terrorist attack to start a panic. just a hacker or semi-trusted agent with access to the futures market.
Too many people want to buy stocks. There ought to be a law against it.
not necessary. the houses are printing new shares, even as we speak. expect fresh supply to sate that demand.
see, who said you couldn't have your cake and eat it too? and on top of that, the courts have now given them a license to ... well, do what they used to do to sell 'em. (sort of fitting that the decision was followed by an upgrade of microsoft, which i consider sort of a 'victory celebration'.)
> My wish list for sites these hackers can fark up begins with
> the RIAA site (if they have one).
indeed they do! and its one of the hardest to hack, because its been hacked continuously for the last several years. this is #1 on almost every hacker's list.
they already have! here's a pretty blatant example from a stock i've followed for years.
this is for the company kopn. PGE is a market maker for kopn.
Feb 14 2003 Pacific Growth Equities Reiterated Equal Weight
Jun 9 2003 Pacific Growth Equities Reiterated Equal Weight
Jun 27 2003 Pacific Growth Equities Initiated Equal Weight
(what? they dropped and resumed coverage within 16 days?)
and, of course, the "initiated" was accompanied by a pop in the stock (over the next couple days). it wouldn't have come to my attention, really, if they hadn't done the same damn thing in oct 01 (when kopn had a secondary offering and the stock was pumped from 10 to 19), and done other rather shady things (e.g. downgrade the stock on a cc where company noted that it might lose one of its customers, a 25% hit to its GaAs revenue (swks), and then upgrade the stock 2 days later after the swks conference call - the impression it gave ... well, i'll leave to your imagination. but it was good for 25% on the stock.)