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Nice article by Fosco on SA about the timing of data release and publication for CVM, but has similar implications for NWBO. We are at 4 months, so we should expect data this month or no later than next month?
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/10921081-fosco-research/5552324-update-from-previous-cvm-article
This video captures it well! I am hoping this gives NWBO individual investors a lot of confidence against the likes of AF and his hedge fund analysts buddies!
Look at the action in CVM today! Similar story to NWBO. Next week would be a great time to release TLD!
Can we agree that the science is good? Otherwise why would Linda Liau et al at UCLA and other collaborators continue to say positive things about DCVAX and also bet the future with combo trials to improve efficacy even further?
Thanks!
Could the auditor change may have something to do with their uplist plan/strategy?
Next week would be an excellent time to release the TLD and bring the hammer down on these shorts while action on GME, AMC is still fresh! Could we see a similar short squeeze? Over $10 in a couple of days post TLD? Can not under estimate the power of retail and social media these days! Above all, we have science on our side too!
Can someone post the number of shares that are short currently? And the trend this month from prior months?
This could also be an opportunity of a lifetime for folks such as LL, Ashkan, etc who have given so much to the development of this vaccine....to publish in a very high impact journal with one of the best long term GBM data that has ever existed with positive outcome....perhaps even appear on the cover of one of these prestigious journals in the coming months, who knows! So it wouldn’t be surprising if NWBO management wants to respect their contribution and agree to the PI, and advisory committee’s suggestion on holding off the PR for a bit until the publication. Also, helps them avoid any doubt that shorts may create upon the PR...and hopefully finance or strike partnership/buyout at much higher strike price!
The fact that warrants weren't extended from mid Dec and the patience of these warrant holders (to not exercise and flood the market) shows confidence in the science and data. They believe and we believe!
LP talking about their 51 patient Information Arm in this presentation. Very encouraging OS data from the most aggressive rGBM patients that are mostly excluded from rGBM trial! In particular, jump to 32:20 time point and listen to the next 3 minutes.
I have been involved in non-invasive electrical brain stimulation research work for some time now....been working with a science driven medical device firm involved in non-invasive brain research for about 15 yrs.
Needless to say, I have serious doubts on how effective their device and approach is in terms of spatial specificity of targeting the tumor cells as well as avoiding stimulation (and thereby damage) of non-target (healthy) cells. I think they use alternating currents upon a quick review on their website. And if that's the case, I am a big skeptic! Non-invasive electrical stimulation is not known for it's spatial specificity given the high impedance of the skull and inhomogeneity of various tissues that it needs to travel through.
Could it be that buyout has been in the works in the background for some time and they don't expect to be listed in a few weeks from now?
Good point!
Perhaps a bit of Roth IRA buying for the new calendar year before the massive upside that's any day now?
I recall that Cognate is expanding their infrastructure in Memphis massively as they’re expecting increased demand of cellular therapy from one of their customers/partners. I thought they were planning to reveal the name of this new customer/partner or something along these lines around end of November. Did this happen? If not, do we believe this is due to NWBO?
BP and/or some other big investor before buyout or taking a major stake in the company.
Could this also mean a big investor is nudging NWBO in this direction before they fully commit and unlock higher valuation?
Thanks!
AF and his buddies have been bashing Cytodyn (CYDN) for quite some time because their therapy, if approved, would hurt Gilead’s Remdesivir penetration. Most medical doctors and in fact even WHO recommends against the use of Remdesivir, but FDA hasn’t taken away their EUA. Just shows how much influence some of these big pharmas, particularly Gilead, has on FDA. What a shame! Anyway, look at CYDY’s performance this month. It has more than doubled and investors are showing confidence in the fact that science is going to validate when they unblind their results of the COVID severe to critical patients towards end of next month. AF has no credibility left, and he will be proven wrong again with NWBO when we announce ground breaking results! :)
Can someone post how many ndGBM cases are reported in UK and EU annually? And what percentage of that can NWBO conservatively address? Assuming treatment cost of $200k, we can build a conservative business model of their top line annual revenue, even if FDA doesn't play ball. IMO, this in itself likely deserves a higher market cap then where we are currently (even at full dilution)!
I am very long NWBO, but I wonder why did Dr. Linda Liau commented in response to one of the Q&A during/after her presentation at UAB on Nov 6, 2020, that FDA is very rigid? That comment made me think FDA has not bought in to their SAP changes yet. On the other hand, I don’t understand why they wouldn’t update clinical.gov website those end point changes if FDA had already bought-in? I understand they are under-resourced and have lot on their plate, but I’d assume it’d take no more than 30 minutes from a single person to get that update done. And that confirmation alone could push the share price by another $1.
Either way, I remain optimistic that a positive news is around the corner!
Merck Research Lab’s Dr. Roger Perlmutter talks about the importance of combination therapies with Keytruda and how that will drive the future treatments....
Just the UK and EU approval of DCVAX-L deserves a much higher market cap than what we are currently trading at. So even in the worst instance of FDA not playing ball, our positions are de-risked at this stage! So I wouldn’t sell until it gets close to $3-4 range, then you can try to recover your initial investment, book some profit, and let a big chunk ride for another 18 months. That’s how I am looking at this!
Flaskworks acquisition, Sawston support/subsidies from local UK agencies are all positives. Also, what about the gift (stock options) that LP granted to someone starting mid-to-end of Dec. If memory serves me well, it was about over a million shares at 0.25 or something along those lines! So all of this, points to managements confidence in the final results and trust they will bring us home. They have been at it for over 15 yrs despite all the naysayers and heavy attacks, yet they didn’t give up!
Yeah. My speculation is they are pretty close to getting it done. They are confident enough that they have not released a PR on Sawston manufacturing site update amongst other things they could have done to lift the share price a bit during this quiet period.
Good point. I believe they want to give Merck first dibs at this given Dr. Duffy's work with NWBO earlier as well as the combination trial being run at UCLA. If they both agree to a price that creates a win-win then why stretch it out? I think given how much LP and other execs (and not to mention shareholders) have suffered at the hands of shorts spinning negative commentary, I doubt whether they would want that uncertainty between TLD PR and FDA approval...They probably want to cash out at this stage and I don't fault them! How old are these guys now? Not sure they want to continue for too long! ;)
Glad we are on the same page! The only thing I don't quite understand is whether they can share the data with Merck execs under NDA before running it through their advisory board, PIs, and a TLD PR for the shareholders? Or would they get in trouble, if that's somehow investigated to be true?
In our case, we didn't have things resting on Phase 3 trial data as much as NWBO does....although, we all believe it's going to be a home run!
Smells like a buyout is coming. Combination of low volume, pushing the warrants back by another month, etc. They are very likely unblinded and may have shared the data with Merck execs under NDA. And they are negotiating. I have gone through one such buyout with a medical device company I worked with....one of the top 10 medical device company bought us a few years ago and the pattern was similar...It takes times to do due diligence and get the key stakeholders at a big multinational such as Merck to approve such a large transaction....my 2 cents!
Thanks. That counts. Appearing on video may not have been the right thing to do anyway, IMO.
I did hear Dr. Liau in one of her presentations (I saw it on YouTube earlier this year) mention that DCVAX would need an Uber like business model for it to really gain wide traction. And I think she may be indirectly hinting towards an involvement of big pharma such as Merck that can make this is a reality....My sense is that Merck is super interested in a buyout or at a minimum close partnership (provided the data is as good as we expect it to be) and LP doesn't ask for an outrageous value...very likely to happen around mid to end of 2021, if not sooner, for sure!
Who all saw Dr. Kevin Duffy at Friday's presentation on Zoom?
The worst case scenario is FDA doesn’t approve revised endpoints and may reject the trial. But it’s clear that UK and Germany will approve. So just based on approval in these two regions, the market cap should be much higher than where we’re currently. So why would long term investors want to sell now? To me, this is an extremely safe investment. Plus someone commented that they saw Kevin Duffy during yesterday’s presentation. It’s clear Merck is super interested and a buyout will happen in the next 12 months if not sooner.
I have personally gone through one recent experience of a buyout with a small medical device company I worked with that was acquired by a top 10 multinational medical device company (without naming names!). In that instance, our broker/advisor limited trading of shares for a couple of weeks before acquisition. But our situation was very unique given our size and how everything was structured.
If LP knew the results were bad, why would she push the warrants back by another 45 days? And could she get in legal trouble by doing that? It seems all the signs are pointing in the direction of a favorable outcome.
Another thing to consider - does buyouts go smoother if they suspend warrant for a few days/weeks if they are unsure on what day they might announce & complete the transaction?
Plus if the SNO slides are due Nov 1 or 2, I’d think they want to formally announce TLD before then to avoid leaks through that channel.
Seems like an interesting report on Dendritic Cell vaccine market potential and work done by UCLA.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/22/2112550/0/en/Insights-on-the-Dendritic-Cell-Cancer-Vaccine-Immunotherapy-Global-Market-to-2026.html
Agreed. Seems like she manages under $10 million in assets. And not 3 billion....they are 2 different outfits....
DI may have been referring to this to a few folks in their conversation couple of weeks ago - waiting on a response from government is not often as quick as you’d like? It’s likely they are still waiting for the FDA to accept their proposed changes to the end points.
It's interesting that Marnix Bosch's affiliation is not listed. Is that done on purpose because an acquisition is coming and the owner will be someone else before SNO? ;)
I am sure NWBO management is well prepared this time around as they have endured pain from these nefarious characters over the years. If the data is good, as we all expect it to be the case, they will have plan A, B & C lined up to counter these guys (partnership agreement, buy out, fast track approval, scale up of manufacturing, etc). Good luck all!
TLD early next week? There is a long-respected adage on Wall Street - sell on Roshashana, buy on Yom Kippur!