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The company is not without value - it will slowly build over time .
1.) Science is strong
2.) They have EU and Canadian markets.
3.) CHina and the rest of the world may contribute some to the market.
4.) The US market may still allow sales via several pathways.
a.) Successful prosecution of infringement
b.) Inability of generics to produce supply
c.) Other uses - Covid - (strongly doubt extinguished by vaccine)
NASH maybe but market not that big
FOr these reasons - stepping back and knowing that if you can double your money in anywhere from 2-5 years you will beat almost all professional investors - I think this is a play - invested at $4 hoping for $8 in 2 - 5 years. For those of you who got in higher you can either load up now on the discount or take your losses
WHo has dumped shares when and how many ?
Excellent Summary - its time to move on - focus on identifying, recouping and preventing infringement AND getting Insurance companies and physicians to understand the medicines role - my goal is $8 in two years
Marzan - I am not a lawyer - but heres my question - wont HIKMA just say - hey we have the right to produce as much EPA as we want - we only produce it - dont sue us if people use it for other indications - we cant control that
Exactly , which tells me AMRN's management is clueless in the daily mechanics of rx processes and is why I have lost all confidence in them
Its possible however remember Lovaza lowers trigs much better than Vascepa - so if you are using the med for trigs >500 I have many cases where Vascepa was not able to get the number under 500 and switching to lovaza did the trick -
I wouldn't hold your breath on Covid - even if works (doubt) a vaccine will destroy the market
This is AMRN's plan according to Thero:
_________________________________________________________________________
We are aware that we will likely lose some portion of VASCEPA prescriptions in the United States to generic versions of VASCEPA, but we are confident that with continued promotion we can build the market.
_________________________________________________________________________
I truly do now believe that AMRN has NO UNDERSTANDING of how Insurance companies will simply replace Vascepa scripts with a generic - AMRN will literally be spending millions to build the market for generic companies - I have lost complete confidence in their management.
Not going to happen - no one is going to buy this dog - been run hard underfed put away cold and wet - in short woefully mishandled - rebuild retrain someone may buy ....
Agree - if they are holding onto 800 reps - why? Are they willing to expend millions on advertising to build a generic market ? This does not make sense - until such time that they terminate all of their reps I will have to believe that they have a plan - OF course they are not going to reveal that plan to us so their competitions can counter their strategy - having said that the problem is AMRN has fumbled this ball so many times that it is difficult to muster any type belief in their capabilities - on the other hand I dont see the stock going any lower and we should have a slow build up within other markets . MY goal is $9.xx in two years allowing doubling of my money in that time period and I believe this is possible
Then sue the states for patent infringement
WEll I'm not making in AMRN ....
Heres the proposal - no free shares pay tied directly to stock price .... they will sell the company very fast
WOw that is amazing and to think my local cardiologists- one at a University Center are telling my patients its just fish oil you dont need it .... and of course the patient is going to believe the cardiologist more than the family doc for their cardiac care ....
CHina will give you a few nickles - until they figure out how to do what your are doing...then they will steal it and boot you out .... period
So AMRN at this point should be focused on how to take on infringement into REDUCE IT - their BOD, legal team, consultants and reps should be developing strategy to :
1.) Identify the methodology within the US RX system that allows infringement to take place ( ie Doctor writes RX - Rx goes to pharmacy - pharmacy is forced by insurer to substitute lower cost generic etc -
2.) Identify Who benefits from these actions Monetarily (Insurer - pharmacy ? ) -
3.) What is the monetary gain to these entities as a result of willful infringement
4.) Gather evidence of this infringement
5.) PLan legal strategy to utilize this evidence to protect patents - most importantly who will represent AMRN and in what court ??
6.) Seek damages for that willful infringement
7.) Prevent further willful infringement
Ah ...the fiasco of the US legal system - headlines should read
Judges Ego's Prevent Scientific Analysis of Facts
SO If parties (Insurers and Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturers) are engaging in willful infringement AND the courts agree the issue becomes how to
1.) Prove that willful infringement is taking place
2.) Seek damages for that willful infringement
3.) Prevent further willful infringement
This is where I believe AMRN should be expending resources should en banc etc fail ( which it most likely will). The fact that they are keeping reps on in the US suggests to me that they have a strategy along these lines and are willing to take the risk to pursue such
WEll I hope you are correct but if indeed that is the case the stock should be soaring ...
Yes that is pharmaceutical to pharmaceutical - yet as we discussed the GSK vs TEVA case may actually have laid out a road map as to how to get around infringement by pretending its not there. HIKMA simply says - we just make the med - we have no idea where or how its being used and take no responsibility for that - all we do is make it .
Its the insurer that is forcing substitution contrary to what the doctor has ordered and the reason for which the med was ordered - the doctor orders VASCEPA for REDUCE IT indications - The insurer then requires substitution of HIKMA's generic product - this is in violation of AMRN Protection by their REDUCE IT patents - SO AMRN sues the Insurance company as it is THEIR actions that actually "violate the law" for unlawful substitution of a product.
Would be interested in legal opinion on such
AMRN continues to pay substantial money to support US reps - they clearly are aware of the monetary outlay . I can only conclude that they believe there is a certain possibility of capturing the US market - at what possibility would you throw in the towel? . If less than 1% then it makes no sense to spend that money - what about 10% ? I dont know the answer but think about this - to JT's credit he took on the FDA for a First Amendment cause - he certainly was not afraid of the controversy - so is JT planning on taking on insurance companies who infringe on the REDUCE IT patent - all he need do is make an example of one and seek damages - the rest will fall into line - If I were JT I would planning that strategy now - picking out the company (and the court !! ) where success would be most likely - this would be new and controversial territory - but so was his First Amendment Case - and if was successful he would be voted one of the most brilliant CEO's
Interesting that the article states that a systematic review of studies reveals that DHA increases LDL by 2 % whereas lovaza's insert states it increases ldl by 49% - huge difference...
It is indeed alarming that a judge not trained in science believes she has more knowledge than established scientists at the US patent office -
I find this interesting :
" Putting aside the merits of the argument, Amarin refrained, for whatever reason, from pressing this argument at trial or in its post-trial briefing. Accordingly, it never became a basis to distinguish the Marine patents over Kuarabayashi either before Judge Du or on appeal, and thus, it is unlikely to move the needle on an en banc petition. With respect to the more particular allegation that a fraud occurred, if the generics do respond to the Amicus brief, they are likely to point out that the entire Kurabayashi article, including the uncropped version of Table 3, was submitted as a separate exhibit into evidence during the trial. They will argue that that essentially negates any finding that the defendants defrauded the court with a cropped version of a table."
So basically AMRN and their legal team screwed up. However, misguided lawyers and other operatives who lack the ability to identify the fraud does not excuse the fraud! In addition submitting an uncropped version of the table as a separate exhibit yet presenting the judge during trial a cropped table begs the question of intentionally misdirecting the judge - if you had a complete table why would you not have used that when presenting evidence to the judge ? That action to me indicates intentional misdirection of the judge !
Great pickup ... not only a tell an outright slippage of the tongue ....
OK another rejection this insurance company is rejecting based on the fact that the patient has not received maximum tolerated course of a statin for 12 weeks . Patient has been on atorvastatin 20 mg since FEB
ff letter sent to Chief Medical Officer: WHy arent AMRN reps in their fighting this battle !!!!!!
Dear Dr XXYYZZZ:
I am writing to you regarding xxxxxxx Care insurance repetitive rejection of the medication Vascepa despite patients meeting the criteria of the REDUCE_IT study. Most recently you rejected the script on ----------- indicating he has not received 12 weeks of maximum tolerated statin therapy. The patient has been on maximum tolerated statin since February of 2020 this is well beyond 12 weeks. I am finding this to be repetitive with this medication. It is almost impossible to get the prescription through even when individuals have met the REDUCE- IT criteria. I would like to have a rep speak to me regarding this matter and clarification of these issues. As you are well aware the REDUCE IT study revealed 25% reduction in coronary events in individuals already on statins with known CAD or diabetics with two risk factors. Depriving my patients of this vital medication is threatening their lives
“Icosapent Ethyl Reduces Ischemic Events in Patients With Prior Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: REDUCE-IT CABG” – presented on behalf of all authors by Subodh Verma, M.D., Ph.D., St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada – November 13, 9:00-10:00 am CST“Significant Reductions in Both Adjudicated and Investigator-Reported Ischemic Events in REDUCE-IT” – presented on behalf of all authors by Deepak L. Bhatt, M.D., M.P.H., Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA – November 13, 9:00-10:00 am CST“Achieved Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA) Levels Predicts Regression of Coronary Plaque Volumes by Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography (CCTA) in the EVAPORATE Trial” – presented on behalf of all authors by Suvasini Lakshmanan, M.D., M.S., Lundquist Institute at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Torrance, CA – November 13, 9:00-10:00 am CST“Effect of Icosapent Ethyl on Changes in Coronary Plaque Characteristics at 9 Months in Patients With Elevated Triglycerides on Statin Therapy: Insights From EVAPORATE” – presented on behalf of all authors by Suvasini Lakshmanan, M.D., M.S., Lundquist Institute at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Torrance, CA – November 13, 9:00-10:00 am CST“Contrasting Effects of Phospholipid Linked Eicosapentaenoic Acid and Arachidonic Acid on Membrane Structure and Stability” – presented on behalf of all authors by Samuel Sherratt, B.S., Elucida Research, Beverly, MA – November 13, 9:00-10:00 am CST“Eicosapentaenoic Acid, but Not Docosahexaenoic Acid or a Mixed Omega-3 Fatty Acid Supplement, Inhibits Low-density Lipoprotein Oxidation in a Time-dependent Manner” – presented on behalf of all authors by Samuel Sherratt, B.S., Elucida Research, Beverly, MA – November 13, 9:00-10:00 am CST“Consistent Cost-effectiveness of Icosapent Ethyl Across Patient Profiles From REDUCE-IT” – presented on behalf of all authors by Zugui Zhang, Ph.D.
Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) Rating Lowered to Strong Sell at BidaskClub
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nasdaq-amrn-a-buy-or-sell-right-now-2020-10/
Remember you are in a Vascepa ECHO echo echo chamber - if it works for COvid great - highly unlikely it does any better than VIt D or zinc - if it magically cures 90% of the cases I will be glad to eat my words
It is wonderful that AMRN keeps producing scientific studies for the benefit of societies health ... I am wondering can I write off all of my investments as a donation to charity ? and why are not the BOD and Thero donating to this charity rather than taking from it ?
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/DE/XFRA/EH3A/research-ratings
Average analyst $11.40
https://biopharmajournal.com/2020/10/28/amarin-nasdaqamrnestablished-that-vascepa-can-reduce-ischemic-events-in-individuals-that-previously-had-pci/
hmmm so they keep publishing studies to the benefit of society not shareholders. I do donate to charities but this should not be one of them ....
NUmber Sleven ... dont wait for the government to make sense it will never happen. WE have people making rules that have never run a business. George McGOvern was a VP candidate - left politics and opened a B&B which promptly went bankrupt. At which point he said "if I knew it was this difficult to run a business I would have never passed all those laws." Our brilliant congress passed the Stark Amendment which prevents Physicians from engaging in what other businesses consider normal practices . THe rationale was that they did not want physicians churning to make income...and what happened to health care costs ? they continued to soar ....because most docs are ethical people they dont order tests unless they think the patient needs it. SO when the patient needed a bypass it didnt matter what hospital they went to the cost was the same - brilliant !!!
Thinking about the AMRN rep who stopped at my office the other day - I asked him what hope he had for the company in the US - his only response was the EVAPORATE study- when I pointed out to him my concern about generic use he had a blank look on his face.
SO we have to assume that AMRN management is not so dumb ( perhaps a wrong conclusion) as to keep staff on when there is absolutely no potential for any market within the US. If so, then why are they keeping reps employed ?
1.) Hopes on en banc - unlikely even AMRN is not that naive
2.) Hopes on protecting their patents- infringement on REDUCE IT etc - yes possible that THEY SEE SOME POTENTIAL there
3.) Working with BP in some way
Watching rep employment will telegraph whether they are throwing in the towel or not . RIght now AMRN management still for some reason believes that there is potential in the US market - I am not saying they are correct I am just saying that they see potential
The real question Capt beer is - does LOVAZA actually induce atherosclerosis by increasing ldl - THE IRONY HERE IS WHY DIDNT THE FDA ASK THAT QUESTION BEFORE APPROVING lovaza THEORETICALLY Should HAVE A BLACK BOX WARNING "SUstained utilization may result in coronary artery disease"
HK now that hits the nail on the head .... unfortunately many of these snowflake judges have no understanding of the complexities involved in bringing a product to market - they just think it falls like manna from the sky ....
Wow Bolio - hey no problem - I appreciated your kind words
well your response clearly reveals your value system so you would spend time to explain why they dont get the rx rather then spend time assisting them to get the rx ...ok I think your final word then sums it all up about you ...