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Trend-
Friday afternoon did look so somewhat suspicious\weak- the last 1/2 hour in particular. Regarding the pullback of decent size I'm thinking your # down to the 900 area as one of the trendlines I watch closely is the one created by 10/10/08 and 10/28/08 lows(~930 now)- by far the most used\observed by price action TL in the past 10 months. Another I'm thinking to lend support below that is ~906 now from 11/87 and 1/95. And you have a couple major ones in the 940 area currently....I think they're still fishing for more guppies for a while. Just remember how long the market rallied off the 1932 bottom. I just try to keep rationality checked at the front door with this profession.
Rcks
fwiw a way around that, at least what I use in my software is to look at 21 periods vs. the monthly chart to have- what I think is a reasonably weighted chart to constantly see a current pseudo monthly candle. And the same for weekly- 5 periods vs. the canned weekly chart. I'd assume most people probably do that.
Look at charts
6 years ago + or - a month for some potential clues of upcoming behavior. Although there is much resistance here from many TL's the middle BB allows some room to run yet.
Neat chart,
and there are many more that converge here. Interesting times.
Order in to buy SDS @ 47.80....
should equate ~ to SPX 985.
Varmit Cong!
Squeeze play
as resistance\support converges in $SPX? The 10/10/08(low), 2/9/09(hi)UTL has continued to be in play providing support\resistance in recent days and now sits ~905+; the 200ma now sits at ~943; top bb daily 935+; middle bb daily ~885+; top bb in the weekly ~953; and 5/19/08 close,9/22/08 open DTL ~924+. And then there are the quiet ones; the DTL from the lows of 8/16/07, 1/23/08, and 9/29/08 ~962 and the DTL from the 3/24/00 hi, 10/13/05 lo ~ 919. They all have been respected in the past price action. Interesting times and stuff.
On the other hand :)
if the 02 scenario can be followed then the 5/7 date you referenced and the 900 to 925 area could play out then a retracement to the 800-825 area(~50% fib), a bounce up to 880-900(~76% fib), and then down to retest the March lows. Then it kicks into some irrational ridiculous 1932 rally for a few years before the next BIG leg down. Just a thought. I do like-in a sick sense- the chart someone posted recently-not sure if it was this board showing 2017 as the ultimate low in various ways. With all this current and growing debt......
Sent,
I appreciate what you say but wouldn't necessarily agree. Per my post over 3 weeks ago:
Posted by: Demosaw Date: Friday, April 03, 2009 6:33:01 AM
In reply to: slinky who wrote msg# 37675 Post # of 38040
That fits well with what I'm seeing. This thing continues to feast on short covering so now I'm thinking the 870-880 tops for this leg having closely met my 850 target yesterday. Then perhaps retest 775-800 area. Ultimate top from my current analysis using many indicators would be the 920-950 area. By then 200ma could be in the area also as it currently sits at 1006 and now descending at a rate of ~2.5\day. This continues to follow the script somewhat from 2002 as yesterday was ~11/1,11/4 timeframe. Also the 1987,2004 TL and the 10/10/08(low), 2/9/09(hi)TL are converging at the 900 area to perhaps provide tough resistance. And then there is the January hi, and, and...... Of course 8:30 this morning will have something to say.
I believe I explained my thinking very clearly. An update to that post is although it was an okay thought process, I've had to fight, like many traders the inclination to short this market with all the negative divergences, the reality of what's really going on in the world, etc. Therefore the targets may be met sooner and the pullbacks more shallow with all the attempts of many to short and then cover. Updates to the above is the 200ma now down to 967 with a decline rate of now ~1.7\day and obviously slowing more quickly as it converges. The TL I mentioned above if you plot it, is now ~900 ascending ~.4-.5\day. That TL and a TL created by the low in 1987 and the gang of lows in 94,95 which is also in the 900 neighbor, at this time I believe will prove to give some tough resistance. However, I'll do my best to read the market and try to continue to trade with the trend. I am also a big believer of Fibs, and human behavior repeating so I'm also looking for past price action that emulates current. The script mentioned from 02 WAS being followed and was a factor in helping me along with all the technicals to have had a nice run. Now it appears to have possibly run its course and I'm looking at the 07 script I mentioned in yesterday's post which shows another fine example of an overbought market that kept advancing. On a side note regarding myself, with everything being tossed around here lately, as your memory (at least mine) gets a bit foggy, I went back to post #1 on this board to bring back memories and advanced thru just to see some of the old members names. I'm one of the old members at the RB board under a different handle now and was away for a number of years until now as my trading was placed on hold to do some others things around this great country. When I started again trading in December, I immediately looked for this board and was shocked to see about Aire. I was fortunate to get to know him and converse with him on the side in addition to other members. I can remember when he couldn't get over how cheap I found the Hurst course for after looking everywhere on the internet. We always had plans for a round on the links but it never happened. My condolences to his family. The board has obviously changed greatly since then. It was fun to go back and see the names. A topic I'd like to research now, although again it's tough for me to grasp, is to look at the bull market that happened in 1932 and lasted for years in the face of tough times to consider it for a replay now. Jeesh! When the markets went down into the fall, my thought process when a bounce, to the 1000-1050 area. Then on down to the 450 level in some period of time. Then the next leg down dropped my targets to what I mentioned above with the longer journey up and the additional resistance. Re:fibs a bounce now to the 38% level would be the 1000-1050 area and would fit nicely with EW theory. Tough for my bearish side to put my arms around that thought and I still believe the 450-500 area to be met with time. Enough said and sorry for the rambling.
Yep,
singles, doubles, and good defense. Home runs not required.
And although
it's premarket, SPY is seriously challenging its 3 day DTL and it's FOMC day. hmmmm Personally I thought yesterday was huge regarding the strength this market showed relative to perhaps one of the worst news days yet that could have been used to sell.(C, BAC, earnings, etc.)
In other words,
For you old time football fans- think Vince Lombardi, for you golfers-KISS, and for you traders-the trend is your friend.
Last year-
You only have to look back to last year to see the 3/14-6/4 run that the SPX never violated the middle BB.
lol Too much.....
Thanks. Hope I like it too after today as I took decent short position when it got to 850 yesterday. I'd take my target of 800 + or - 10 but if some serious profit taking come in, the famous 750-770 area certainly is in the realm of possibilities. Noticed that JPM is banging its 200ma as it reports this a.m. Curious to see that action.
Got the bounce to 850 area-
Didn't expect that type of close however. Wonder how much of that was short covering of early shorters? Lightest volume day in the Dow last 4 days. hmmm
02 script still being followed-
Yesterday 11/7/02. Based on that SPX will now pullback no more than 800 + or - 10. Bounce initially to the 850 area today then down? Negative divergences from 3/18-3/26 building and traders want them cleaned out to run this puppy higher.
Hope you don't mind me jumping in here. I went to college there. Nice little town that had the most millionaires per square mile at one time as it is the home of Food Lion(formerly Food Town). A couple hours west you have the mountains to explore(Linville Falls, Ashville-Biltmore Castle, Mt Mitchell, Grandfather Mt., just south the town of Charlotte to see. Not sure what you are looking for. Assuming the summer be ready for heat and humidity.
Hey what's 15%? :)
That fits well with what I'm seeing. This thing continues to feast on short covering so now I'm thinking the 870-880 tops for this leg having closely met my 850 target yesterday. Then perhaps retest 775-800 area. Ultimate top from my current analysis using many indicators would be the 920-950 area. By then 200ma could be in the area also as it currently sits at 1006 and now descending at a rate of ~2.5\day. This continues to follow the script somewhat from 2002 as yesterday was ~11/1,11/4 timeframe. Also the 1987,2004 TL and the 10/10/08(low), 2/9/09(hi)TL are converging at the 900 area to perhaps provide tough resistance. And then there is the January hi, and, and...... Of course 8:30 this morning will have something to say.
Based on technicals, this price movement continues to follow the 02 script to a decent degree. If yesterday is the near term low then based on 02 the near term target would be the 855 area. I would be curious for anyone here with the cycle expertise to see how the cycles were situated at that time with yesterday being 10/28 + or - versus present. Thanks in advance for anyone so gracious to do that.
SPX 200DMA 1027 and dropping at a current rate of 3/day.
Thanks. This buying pressure today is amazing.
Thinking S&P may be range bound\consolidating for a short time(~week) challenging the DTL(depending on how you draw them) from 11/4/08, 1/6/09(840-860 area) and 750-775 area. On the other hand the TL mentioned in the previous post may provide support as it just received a good test on Friday and held, Now sitting about 775 and climbing. Thoughts?
I appreciate your comments. This last hour could be a lot of fun.
Wow. Sure looked that way. Took my eyes off the technicals and put them on potential sentiment\short covering. An unfortunate mistake. It fought for the 23% retracement but appears to have lost. The rally until 3:38 seemed promising if it would have just held that but that finish looked like it will continue its retracement to the next fib down. Another thing I've been watching closely to possibly go long at is the trend line created by the 3/11 high and 3/13, 3/17 lows (and actually has its origin intraday 3/2) which in fact held on the 1st attempt today and was being challenged at the close. We'll see.
looking for S&P to test 808,810 area today.
Look at 10/16/02 on the SPX. Look similar to today in the technicals?
Good stuff.
I will be very interested in the action today as there is much resistance in this area to +3%. If I read some stats correctly, volume appeared quite light yesterday also.
Thinking ~735 +or- 5% on the S&P for possible retracement.
Looking to see it hold the 703-705 area today (4th wave) then attack the gap down on 3/2 (735-740).
"Seymour also noted that steel prices are coming down in China, which he said is "terrible" news for coal and iron ore." Excerpt from "Fast Money" last night. Might have something to do with it.
Any data on the week following? TIA
BTW,
I find the lack of activity interesting rright after close as there has not been a single trade after 4:01 making me think the shorts feel comfortable at this point.
Hey guys,
Thanks for the valuable info. I bought some more after we talked at 5.70 to have a 5.79 avg. Feel asleep at the switch(misread the strength of the run in the afternoon thinking it had more to reload and attack the 6.30 area again, missing the 6.05 top but got out at 5.93 on the way down. I didn't want to hold at this moment so a .14 gain with the number of shares I had made for a real nice payday. Thanks again and I'll definitely be trading this one again. Looked over my shoulder at GM. Whew! Have a great Christmas.
Ok. Dow's trying again. If it could get started at lunch-could be a good sign for the balance of the day. It's like you want to get out of the car and push it.
Thanks. Any thoughts on a near term target price?
5 days in the past 2 weeks the 8600 area in the Dow has been hammered. That's the key short term.