Sent,
I appreciate what you say but wouldn't necessarily agree. Per my post over 3 weeks ago:
Posted by: Demosaw Date: Friday, April 03, 2009 6:33:01 AM
In reply to: slinky who wrote msg# 37675 Post # of 38040
That fits well with what I'm seeing. This thing continues to feast on short covering so now I'm thinking the 870-880 tops for this leg having closely met my 850 target yesterday. Then perhaps retest 775-800 area. Ultimate top from my current analysis using many indicators would be the 920-950 area. By then 200ma could be in the area also as it currently sits at 1006 and now descending at a rate of ~2.5\day. This continues to follow the script somewhat from 2002 as yesterday was ~11/1,11/4 timeframe. Also the 1987,2004 TL and the 10/10/08(low), 2/9/09(hi)TL are converging at the 900 area to perhaps provide tough resistance. And then there is the January hi, and, and...... Of course 8:30 this morning will have something to say.
I believe I explained my thinking very clearly. An update to that post is although it was an okay thought process, I've had to fight, like many traders the inclination to short this market with all the negative divergences, the reality of what's really going on in the world, etc. Therefore the targets may be met sooner and the pullbacks more shallow with all the attempts of many to short and then cover. Updates to the above is the 200ma now down to 967 with a decline rate of now ~1.7\day and obviously slowing more quickly as it converges. The TL I mentioned above if you plot it, is now ~900 ascending ~.4-.5\day. That TL and a TL created by the low in 1987 and the gang of lows in 94,95 which is also in the 900 neighbor, at this time I believe will prove to give some tough resistance. However, I'll do my best to read the market and try to continue to trade with the trend. I am also a big believer of Fibs, and human behavior repeating so I'm also looking for past price action that emulates current. The script mentioned from 02 WAS being followed and was a factor in helping me along with all the technicals to have had a nice run. Now it appears to have possibly run its course and I'm looking at the 07 script I mentioned in yesterday's post which shows another fine example of an overbought market that kept advancing. On a side note regarding myself, with everything being tossed around here lately, as your memory (at least mine) gets a bit foggy, I went back to post #1 on this board to bring back memories and advanced thru just to see some of the old members names. I'm one of the old members at the RB board under a different handle now and was away for a number of years until now as my trading was placed on hold to do some others things around this great country. When I started again trading in December, I immediately looked for this board and was shocked to see about Aire. I was fortunate to get to know him and converse with him on the side in addition to other members. I can remember when he couldn't get over how cheap I found the Hurst course for after looking everywhere on the internet. We always had plans for a round on the links but it never happened. My condolences to his family. The board has obviously changed greatly since then. It was fun to go back and see the names. A topic I'd like to research now, although again it's tough for me to grasp, is to look at the bull market that happened in 1932 and lasted for years in the face of tough times to consider it for a replay now. Jeesh! When the markets went down into the fall, my thought process when a bounce, to the 1000-1050 area. Then on down to the 450 level in some period of time. Then the next leg down dropped my targets to what I mentioned above with the longer journey up and the additional resistance. Re:fibs a bounce now to the 38% level would be the 1000-1050 area and would fit nicely with EW theory. Tough for my bearish side to put my arms around that thought and I still believe the 450-500 area to be met with time. Enough said and sorry for the rambling.
AI
