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Thanks Greg. Funny how some of us can be around for quite a while, suffering through horrific declines in value on relatively small dilution, and then someone else can get the message out and make such a fast and big difference. Of course, his timing is impeccible. Lots of things appear to be coming, and soon.
PCLI is IMHO, simply, a gem.
ted
Does Gordon Gecko have a following, or is he primarily only an effective "word-spreader"?
Reasons I like PCLI:
*The market is considered to be very large, many billions of dollars.
*CSS language finally was approved by the studios for on-demand DVDS. It's the same protection major studies use now against copywriting DVD's they make. This opens the door to the eventual on-demand production of any movie ever made by the major studios (assuming they still have the master).
*PCLI is the only company I know of which has CSS incorporated into software for on-demand DVDS.
*Already one (or two--I forget) MAJOR studios is on board.
*The 200 store major retailer trial
*Deals with respected industry names--Bollywood, CityLights, Monarch, etc...
*Studios like this because it requires no upfront production and potentially unsold inventory. They also like it because of the "Long Tail" theory--ie they can sell older items as easily as newer items (no supply issues once mastered).
*Retailers like it because there is no inventory. They can carry thousands of items in virtual inventory.
*Consumers should like it because it will over time offer flexibility to purchase any movie they desire. Also, for customization--you will be able to combine titles, etc... Also, it will include DVD-quality wrapping (a feature I understand is NOT offered currently by Polar Frog). Should appeal to avg consumers, impulse buyers, gift-givers, and collectors.
*Lots of flexibility for future enhancements, ie downloading to digital devices of one's own, etc..
*Lots of promise for on-line fulfillment with all kinds of on-line retailers-from small independant producers of digital content to large retailer/resellers.
*The kiosks are very affordable to mass deployment, starting at about $5,000. Your neighborhood mom and pop store can compete with Walmart and Target!
*The stock currently has a very small dollar float, which I estimate to be at around $1-$2 million, 20 million shares currently. As word gets out this stock can move up quickly.
*Working with big players in the kiosk world, and software world (Sonic and Macrovision)
*Incorporates Rip-Guard from Macrovision for top-level security
*As I understand it, their security engine and database features require sophisticated development, having invested lots of R&D over time. This should be a real advantage for first-mover status.
The primary negative I see is the weak financials, which I think will NOT be a problem as financers get a handle on just what PCLI really has here.
Needless to say, there is a lot to like here. At only 6-7 cents.
ted
Who are all you new people?
For those interested in more DD, go to siliconinvestor.com and look up all references to PCLI. I've been on this for over a year and am very excited about the prospects. Good luck. ted
Trendmaster, you have misinterpreted everything I've said.
My comments aren't about me. I'm not miserable or negative. I'm not wallowing in pity either. Of course I'm disappionted that they so badly misled all of us. That is a healthy response, but I'm certainly above letting it depress me or something like that.
Rather than impuning certain emotions to me, just look at what I've actually been saying: I'm stating facts about LYJN as far as investing is concerned.
My coments were about LYJN and how foolish it is to NOW invest in them with a long term horizon. They have no credibility as far as shareholder communication is concerned. There is no reasonable basis for valuation. A year ago I gave them the benefit of the doubt. No longer.
It may or may not be foolish to buy as a short term trade. THAT depends on other factors.
I asked you to share why you put faith in someone who is an absolute stranger to me: Hanna. I don't know her from Eve, but she clearly is a wanna-be celebrity, which can drive some people to behave in unethical ways. If you know differently, feel free to share with us what you know.
ted
Trendmaster, it's not about "feelings" it's about facts. We have been treated like "dirt". If you don't "feel" that way, you are in denial. And, it is foolish to buy something with the goal of making profit when you have no clue what value it has. If you don't "feel" that way you are again in denial.
You "feel" good because of some convictions you have with regard to Hanna. I'd like to understand why you feel that way in light of the reasons you shouldn't feel good. Please enlighten me and others here.
ted
tightass, do you have any idea what the value of Lyric Jeans is as a company--ie the market capitalization? Do you see why this is a shot in the dark without that information? Investing for the long term without having a clue as to the share structure is foolish. Simply dumb. Please see my recent post on the subject and let me know what you think.
I only wish I had a friend who knows Hanna, but I don't, so I can only go by their reported information and track record. So far, it is not credible. That's not subject to debate.
Are they working hard? Maybe so, but that doesn't mean shareholders will benefit from their work. Until we know we aren't being taking to the cleaners by manipulation of the stock we can't know WHO will actually benefit from their hard work. Do you not agree?
Thanks in advance for your thoughts on these issues.
BTW I was very positive on this stock a year ago. They promised financials during a PR about this time last year. Failure to deliver has dampened my enthusiasm dramatically, though I still own some 200k shares.
Why be positive about a company that treats its shareholders like dirt?
ted
No known share structure==no basis for valuation. We no longer can give much credence to the 60 million share count given over a year ago since much time has passed and the company has yet to show any proof with reporting. The sharecount could be 60 million or 600 million for all we know. Volume would suggest to me that it is closer to the 60 million point, but who really knows?
Again: No structure=no basis for valuation. Price means nothing unless you know what it is you are buying. Any value of a "share"--whether it be 4 cents or 40 cents is meaningless unless you know how many shares there are. It's like trying to buy something as a collectible without knowing how many there are. Until that is known, all collectors are completely shooting in the dark. Why? Because there is no basis on which to judge the DEMAND--ie how much others will be willing to pay based on their judgement of how difficult it will be to find.
This company has been total unconcerned for shareholders who want to value their investment.
THEREFORE, the only basis for buying is the belief that DEMAND will change from what it is today. Demand is the result of many factors. Bottom fishers and positive news CAN increase demand and may result in a gain in price. However, in the past, news has been met with selling pressure. Again, we have NO CLUE as to the SUPPLY of stock available for sale, so even if the stock does go up one must be nimble because there may be a huge amount just waiting to be sold. The stock may or may not crumble depending on how strong demand really is.
Given the history of this company, I'd venture to say that their credibility with investors has been so severely damaged by failed projections and lack of transparency that any "pump" will be short lived unless the company can suddenly create credibility. Note that the American Idol news was met with a big HO-HUM by the market. Credibility is THAT BAD!
Repairing damaged credibility will require NUMBERS that are actually meaningful. That is at a minimum: DEBT, DEBT STRUCTURE, CASH FLOW, REVENUES, EARNINGS, SHARES OUTSTANDING, the FLOAT.
ted
In a couple of years no longer will a Blockbuster or Walmart not carry a DVD for the movie you are looking for--new or old. Thanks to companies like PCLI. PCLI currently is on the forefront of this movement, and is the ONLY known company in the world currently able to meet the CSS requirements for DVD on demand TODAY. And the stock is selling for only 3 cents.
Disclosure: I'm long.
ted
Yes, the lying management of ENCS clearly has has no respect for its shareholders. I lost a ton of money because they lied time and again. They will pay.
tedm
thanks. I'll give it a try. I emailed them at some other address recently and it was return. Just sent them snail mail today too.
ted
Does ANYONE know what is going on with these guys? The IR firm dropped them, and the contact Mr. Rudman can't be reached anymore--supposedely is Europe trying to obtain financing. Thing is, he's been there for something like 4 weeks now and there has been no communication. I don't get it--management looked pretty good, debt wasn't bad, tech was featured in scientific journals, and I didn't see any sign of a pump and dump...things were supposedly quite rosy. Why would Mr. Rudman paint such a good picture just 6-8 weeks ago if things were really so bad? Again, no pump and dump.
ted
Does ANYONE know what is going on with ENUI? Management has failed their shareholders terribly, and there is no phone # to call other than in India. I stuck with them through thick and thin. The least that they can do is provide an update and bring closure to this investment--tell me all is lost if it is..
ted
WOW: FKLT historical qtrly revenues and earnings growth. This appears to be a whole new era for Franklin Telecom. Just moved to OTC from pink sheets in August:
Revenues (thousands)
3/31/06.......163
3/31/06.......679
6/30/06.......970
9/30/06......1800
12/31/06.....3227
3/31/07......4338
6/30/07......8645
Net Income (thousands)
3/31/06.....(112)
3/31/06......19
6/30/06......99
9/30/06.....214
12/31/06....383
3/31/07.....604
6/30/07....1383
Amazing growth. There are 926 million shares out. Assuming NO FURTHER growth over the next 3 quarters, future 12 month income would be roughly 5.5 million, or .006 per share. At 4 cents a share that's a PE of about 7, even though earnings are growing at many multiples of 7! Their shares in the 9/30/06 were 897 million, so dilution has been very minimal during the growth. They are cash flow positive, and have little debt but plenty ($3.4 million) of cash on hand. Receivables aren't a problem (they are almost zero).
If these numbers are correct this is a rare find in the OTC world. Does anyone dare to project these numbers out? They are nearly doubling every 6 months. That of course won't last forever, but lets just say they double only one more time over the next year. Income would then top $10 million for the year. What would the stock likely do then? I have a guess...
Oh yeah, why are they doubling? Modems for broadband wireless, in high demand as both of those industries continue to grow both domestically and worldwide.
tedm
Absolutely phenomenal numbers posted! eom.
Hey ENCS, where are all the EGVI conversion shares you promised? What a pathetic company! Jerks.
I guess you all know they now have jeans for sale on their website at http://www.lyricculture.com/index.php?cPath=4&osCsid=, and quite a few more T's, right? It's been a while since I've gone to it.
ted
Let's put these guys in jail..
If they don't come through soon.
ted
What's the situation ENCS? Today's release says there will be no modification to the capital structure. A recent release says
"Once the new capitalization of the new public company is settled, all stockholders of DeMarco Energy or Energy Vision International will be notified by way of an announcement on the company’s website and be asked to send their shares to the company’s Transfer Agent to be converted into shares of Encore Energy.The full name and address of the Transfer Agent will be published when we make this announcement. "
Is a conversion still possible if there is no more modification to the capital structure? Will we still get our 60% ownership? Are there issued but not outstanding shares at present? Can we still convert? What is the holdup?
ted
Share structure is not clear to Demarco shareholders. I own a bunch of Demarco shares--the original Energy Miser geothermal company. If they are actually being as successful as they claim I feel ripped off if none or few of my many prior shares of EGVI convert over. The July PR said that prior EGVI shares would convert to 60% ownership, yet the company is claiming there is no change to the capital structure. This seems like a contradiction has occurred, and they plan on converting few shares over. It simply isn't clear at all.
They need to explain what is going on, because given their history this just looks like they are taking advantage of those of us who have been loyal to them for so long. Pumping out great sounding PR's without explaining basic relevant issues such as this to long term shareholders is highly insensitive.
To other EGVI holders--am I simply not getting this? Do you know any more about your conversion than I do?
tedm
This is great news. Hopefully now we will hear of actual license agreements with the major studios and retailers, with us in between. Also, of a better financing arrangement including replacement of the current convertibles, revenue increases and specific retailer news before the end of the year.
ted
wasted pr's--no visible capital structure, dilution, not reporting. Bad combination for this market--hype or even true positive news is going no where. Investors have no idea how to value their shares because we have no idea how many shares there really will be after the conversion which is taking forever to complete. Dilution is an immediate loss on investment so if that is taking place--of course no reporting means we can't tell if it is or how much--then there is a disincentive to invest. Lack of reporting quite simply means a continued lack of credibility. They have failed investors terribly in the past by making promises that fell through without comment. If this company truly wants a loyal shareholder base or even to succeed with pr's like these, they need the credibility that comes from clear visibility and lack of dilution. Pitiful.
ted
This suggests what I've been hoping is going to be the case, and is good news for the DVD on demand for purchase market that PCLI is in, from an article today at http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6467504.html:
"Warner Home Video consumer research has found, however, that consumers don’t view downloads as a replacement to DVDs. Warner found that more than half of downloaders say they plan to buy the DVD of the show they downloaded.
“Our research tends to indicate a different purchase motivator for TV on DVD vs. downloading,” said Jeff Brown, Warner senior VP and general manager of TV, family, animation and franchise. “Downloading tends to represent a benefit of immediacy, of catching up on an episode one missed.”
But consumers say they buy DVDs for convenience, repeatability and collectibility, he said.
“The true collector will want it in packaging with all the extras,” added Steve Feldstein, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment senior VP.
Virgin senior product manager Chris Anstey said the retailer doesn’t see TV and video downloads impacting DVD the way music downloads did CD sales.
“Unlike music, portable video viewing has yet to completely revolutionize the industry, and PC movie watching is still a distant cousin to standard DVD viewing,” Anstey said. “It’s foolish to be complacent and dismiss the potential impact of downloading, but with our TV on DVD business significantly exceeding its performance over last year, we have all the faith that our customers place value in programming quality and not just disposable convenience.” "
I agree on the artwork. The stand alone pay is an attractive feature and may result in various stand alone machines all over the place, but people and studios will prefer the artwork, so that could limit their marketability with certain retailers.
I kind of doubt that any of the content owner deals with Polar Frog or TitleMatch are exlusive. I was thinking they were, but see no evidence of that, and it really would be to the advantage of content owners to get their content on as many kiosks as possible. The number of content owners and titles with Polar Frog is fairly impressive and may exceed that of TitleMatch at present, but my understanding is that TitleMatch is receiving a lot of interest out there by the marketplace..
ted
Polar Frog lands pilot program in airports. I'm not sure how TitleMatch can claim to be first to market:
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6458970.html
JULY 10 | Polar Frog Digital, a maker and distributor of MediaIgloo kiosks that burn DVDs on demand, has planted kiosks at the Raleigh-Durham, N.C., and Burbank, Calif., airports as part of a pilot program with airport store chain The Paradies Shops.
The Paradies Shops operate 500 stores in 60 airports across the U.S. and Canada under different brands. In Burbank and Raleigh, kiosks are located in the chain’s CNBC-branded stores.
The chain plans to add Polar Frog kiosks to the Detroit Metro airport by the end of July.
Polar Frog said it offers more than 5,000 titles from 50 suppliers through its MediaIgloo kiosks. The company has deals with Magnolia Home Entertainment, Arts Alliance America (formerly Hart Sharp Video) and other independent suppliers.
“We are very pleased with the consumer responses and acceptance at The Paradies Shops. Early traffic and sales patterns indicate with the addition of major studio content the kiosks will be hugely successful,” Polar Frog CEO Todd Rosenbaum said. “Our MediaIgloo and related services provide an end-to-end solution for content owners and retailers alike. We offer the convenience of virtual inventories without traditional distribution costs, need for shelf space and satisfy a wider range of consumers.”
The company said that once CSS copy-protection is available, they expect to be able to increase their library of films available for download through the kiosks. Use of CSS for DVD burning has been approved.
I'm hopeful about the pilots, but understand that content is going to take a while to come on board. To me the beauty at the retail level will be the ability to go in and choose just about any movie you like. That is going to take a couple of years, I think, since content won't all be available immediately. As such, I'm not quite sure what one should expect in the pilots with no doubt a lot less content. Can in store promotions of a smaller group of titles be successful or indicative of the future return on investment?
As for the patents, I've wondered too how much better that is going to prove to be than the competition. It's great that they are apparantly first to market, but am not sure if their patent is going to give them that much advantage over time. I recall reading recently about a company that can download in just 30 seconds --DVD something, that sets up around college campuses. Currently they are only into rentals, so they aren't a concern at this point..Would be worth asking the company about this..
Since Walgreens has been mentioned since early this year in the Sonic releases, and they aren't a DVD store, I am hopeful that they are the retailer.
It is exciting to think that the Blockbuster or Hollywood Video might be interested..but really the kiosk space is so small and I think will be so cost-effective that many many retailers could set them up.
On-line stuff is quite exciting too--there the website already has the customer and the customer doesn't need to use a kiosk, etc.. so there need for marketing the concept would be less than at a brick and morter place.
ted
Well Matthew, it looks like you and I are the only ones who care to talk about PCLI anymore--here and on agoracom. I've also mentioned them on SI. They recently filed for possible 22 million share dilution, which I'm guessing is happening. Since the float was only around 9 million prior to the filing, and volume just isn't there, the supply-demand appears to be creating the drop.
I've been buying. I am hopeful that the deal they have made is significant. I am hopeful that others are on the way. I am hopeful that the market will eventually discover that demand for their product will be very large, and already is quite impressive--just look at the companies that have signed on--certainly not no-name companies in the business at all. I am hopeful that future financing will not result in any significant dilution. I love their business plan as it is a win-win-win for everybody involved.
PCLI really appears to be a significant leader of a segment niche that will be in the hundreds of millions in revenue within a decade. They appear able to partner with the movers and shakers in the industry.
The shares outstanding after this filing looks to be around 100 million shares. They have warrants which can add to the shares significantly over time, but as I read it will also help fund the business.
Based on 100 million shares we get a market cap of $3 million at 3 cents a share, today's pitiful close. Considering IMO revenue likely to exceed $10-20 million within 2-3 years I think this is bargain territory and have been loading up accordingly. I expect some short term spikes too as the market begins to catch on to the potential, and people begin to see and use the kiosks in places familiar to them. Time will tell. It's been a very frustrating month but I'm holding on for what I expect to be eventual signficant moves up.
Best of luck to us both.
ted
Thanks MikeBr.
Somehow I misread a comment about 3121 and thought it was not known if it is a Lyric T-shirt. I was mistaken. 3121 is a Lyric T-shirt and it IS a tie-in with Prince. It's good to see, and we should see some sales from it.
I guess the question is whether that is all that it is, or whether Prince will be involved with Lyric in a more dramatic way.
ted
Great point Zaneyman.
Let me get this straight:
We know nothing about the significance of 3121 other than it is the name of Prince's last album, and he claims it as his address (wikipedia), and following the album is going to be a perfume line which Prince himself will be promoting.
Yet, 2 models for Lyric Culture wore a "3121" T shirt at two events in which one would expect a Lyric T shirt to have been worn instead: One at the Los Vegas clothing show and the other at the Avalon Party (with Fergie). One of these persons has a song named after her on the upcoming Prince album.
Clearly one of the models (Chelsea) is close to Prince because he has named a song after her on his upcoming new album. One possibility is that the other model may have known Chelsea and happened to have liked the shirt and/or Prince also.
The question is why did they both wear a T shirt that promotes Prince's upcoming product and not Lyric's at two different events in which they were models for Lyric? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Seems very reasonable to conclude that the 3121 T Shirt was something Lyric wanted them to wear. But why--if the shirt it is simply a promotion for Prince? Most reasonable conclusion IMO: It is NOT simply a promotion for Prince. There is a Prince-Lyric Culture tie in that has not yet been announced. Having said that one could still ask-WHY wear 3121 shirts at a Lyric event if the tie-in hasn't been announced? Answer? I don't know--perhaps those at the party are 'in' on the connection already, so to THEM it made sense. Add to that the addition information from the prior PR person back in Dec that Prince will be 'the' Lyric celebrity spokesman, and we have something potentially quite interesting here.
As for the Macy connection--ie Chelsea being a buyer for Macy's, could be, but seems somewhat unlikely that she is both a buyer for Macy's and a model, AND that Macy's hasn't bought any of the Lyric T's yet.
ted
MACD-213, what does that mean? Are you looking for news on that date re the person in question?
Hi MACD. Prince's daughter modeling for Lyric, huh? Interesting--I recall Braxton (IR guy) 'letting slip' to me on the phone last Dec that Prince was probaby going to be the celebrity spokesman for Lyric Jeans.
ted
bigpike, I totally get it. I'm very frustrated and believe they company has been very irresponsible also. I only hope it is a matter of us being a low priority at this point and not one of deception. Time will tell. Gotta run.
ted
Alleged LYJN response to Mathe filing:
You may have missed this bigpike. I was VERY concerned about this filing and tried to get answers. The company told me they were looking into it and then didn't follow up. However, a poster on RB claims to have gotten a response. Here is a post I wrote on IHUB a week ago about all of this.
"Erick Mathe info from RB, back in early January. This whole issue has been discussed before. My take was and still is that if the info Stockpal was giving was a deception, it was pretty clever since it didn't tie back to the 144 filing number directly, though that number was still tiable to the number he allegedly sold. So unusual a deception that I think deception was unlikely, and the truth was given. Here was a post by Stockpal:
"Ted i just spoke to them and the Mathe character only had 805k and they were all cxled in 05 and shows up with nothing at the transfer agent.Theres 63 mill no perferred 836 certs 659 shareholdes and mr.mathe isnt one of them.They are telling me 100% its an error and will try to have it removed asap if they can find how it was ever put up there in the first place.Ive seen errors like this before.It could have shown up pre roll back from the old company.If there were shares the transfer agent would know.They also said that they are deep into the audit and are trying to get done asap for everyone to see.This comes from an attorney"
Here was my response on rb at the time:
The 805k for Mathe ties back to his restricted shares prior to the 1:300 reverse split. From the 10K on 12/31/05:
4. Stockholders’ Equity Common Stock – The Company was organized under the laws of the State of Florida January 3, 2001, as
SynergySoftware Development, Inc.. The Company changed its name to Universal Media Holdings, Inc. on November 3, 2004 and has authorized shares of 1,000,000,000 no par value as of December 6, 2005. On February 16, 2005 78,500,000 shares of stock were issued to shareholders participating in a Pennsylvania 504. On February 22, 2005, 150,000,000 restricted shares combined were issued to Erick
Mathe (68,750,000), Andrew Cambron (68,750,000) and Mark Krigsman (12,500,000) for a partial conversion of their note receivable. In April 2005, 8,000,000 shares were issued to shareholders
participating in a Pennsylvania 504. November 17, 2005, 10,000,000 restricted shares were issued to JPC Capital Partners Inc. for a Consulting Agreement. December 20, 2005, 329,600,000 restricted shares were issued to Erick Mathe (172,800,000), Andrew B. Cambron (134,400,000), Carlos Ramos (20,000,000), and JPC Capital Partners Inc. (2,400,000). The shares to Mathe, Cambron and Ramos completed the balance of the conversion shares authorized pursuant to the Agreement and Plan of Acquisition dated November 24, 2004. JPC Capital provided investment banking services to the Company.
Mathe's shares of 68,750,000 (on the form 144) and 172,800,000 amount to 241,550,000. After the 1:300 reverse split (in March? or so of 2006) he would have had 805,167 shares, which agrees with the number by LYJN. You said that LYJN said these were cycled in 2005. It is more reasonable to conclude that they 'cycled' in 2006 after the 1:300 reverse split. In any case, the number does tie, and I am somewhat reassured by that.
It comes down to trust still, but I am at least satisfied to see an answer to this question. "
bigpike, this response as well as the actual volume and probable high float turnover--discussed today lead me to be quite confident that the Aug filing listed shares that didn't really exist, and therefore was likely a mistake made by some tax attorney for Mathe or something. For all these reasons I still think the share structure we were told may be what really exists. Why the hell they don't make it official is beyond me--and is what keeps the skepticism alive even in me.
ted
Yes, I was told late last fall in an email that the OS was slightly over 60 million (unchanged from the number given to others earlier in the spring) and that the float was somewhere around 9 million shares. How they got to 60 million shares in the first place is unclear but maybe the key to that is knowing how many shares Lyric had prior to the aquisition--a number I never saw.
In any case, as MO points out the TOTAL shares traded to date is only around 100 million. It seems inconceivable to me that a concept stock like this that trades on PR's and excitement would not trade over the float many times over in a year. That seems to be much more supportive of the information we were given about the total OS and float than the idea that there are over 1 billion shares and the float is huge. Large OS and float just don't make sense given the volume of activity and likely rate of turnover IMO.
Also, IMO the idea that E Mathe has 68 million shares to sell doesn't make sense either because the other officers had many pre-reverse shares also. Therefore, the Aug filing for him to sell 68 million shares was amost certainly a mistake that should be completely ignored.
ted
Public float and Mathe insider sales: An analysis #2:
Fact: The average weekly volume since Lyric was aquired March 27, 2006 has been roughly 1.75 million shares, according to Yahoo's historical volume summary
Assumption: The average holding period by public (the shares in the float) is 8 weeks.
Analysis: The assumption translates to average turnover of the float of 12.5% per week. Therefore, the float computes to a maximum of 1.75 /.125 = 14 million shares. If the actual float is only 14 million shares and has been from the beginning of LYJN, it can account for all of the sales of stock since the beginning.
Conclusion: If the float has always been 14 million, and the above assumption is correct we can conclude that there is no evidence that insider trading has taken place, and certainly there is no evidence that Eric Mathe sold 68 million shares! It also follows that the claim Stockpal made that LYJN told him Mathe sold only 805K shares (which ties back to his shares with Universal) is reasonable.
What you think about this off-the-cuff analysis? If you disagree with anything, please explain.
ted
Public float and Mathe insider sales: An analysis:
Fact: The average weekly volume since inception has been roughly 1-1.5 million shares
Assumption: The average holding period by public (the shares in the float) is 2.5 months, or 10 weeks.
Analysis: The assumption translates to average turnover of the float of 10% per week. Therefore, the float computes to a maximum of 10-15 million shares. If the actual float is only 10-15 million shares and has been from the beginning of LYJN, it can account for all of the sales of stock since the beginning.
Conclusion: If the float has always been 10-15 million, and the above assumption is correct we can conclude that there is no evidence that insider trading has taken place, and certainly there is no evidence that Eric Mathe sold 68 million shares! It also follows that the claim Stockpal made that LYJN told him Mathe sold only 805K shares (which ties back to his shares with Universal) is reasonable.
What you think about this off-the-cuff analysis? If you disagree with anything, please explain.
ted
Erick Mathe info from RB, back in early January. This whole issue has been discussed before. My take was and still is that if the info Stockpal was giving was a deception, it was pretty clever since it didn't tie back to the 144 filing number directly, though that number was still tiable to the number he allegedly sold. So unusual a deception that I think deception was unlikely, and the truth was given. Here was a post by Stockpal:
"Ted i just spoke to them and the Mathe character only had 805k and they were all cxled in 05 and shows up with nothing at the transfer agent.Theres 63 mill no perferred 836 certs 659 shareholdes and mr.mathe isnt one of them.They are telling me 100% its an error and will try to have it removed asap if they can find how it was ever put up there in the first place.Ive seen errors like this before.It could have shown up pre roll back from the old company.If there were shares the transfer agent would know.They also said that they are deep into the audit and are trying to get done asap for everyone to see.This comes from an attorney"
Here was my response on rb at the time:
The 805k for Mathe ties back to his restricted shares prior to the 1:300 reverse split. From the 10K on 12/31/05:
4. Stockholders’ Equity Common Stock – The Company was organized under the laws of the State of Florida January 3, 2001, as
SynergySoftware Development, Inc.. The Company changed its name to Universal Media Holdings, Inc. on November 3, 2004 and has authorized shares of 1,000,000,000 no par value as of December 6, 2005. On February 16, 2005 78,500,000 shares of stock were issued to shareholders participating in a Pennsylvania 504. On February 22, 2005, 150,000,000 restricted shares combined were issued to Erick
Mathe (68,750,000), Andrew Cambron (68,750,000) and Mark Krigsman (12,500,000) for a partial conversion of their note receivable. In April 2005, 8,000,000 shares were issued to shareholders
participating in a Pennsylvania 504. November 17, 2005, 10,000,000 restricted shares were issued to JPC Capital Partners Inc. for a Consulting Agreement. December 20, 2005, 329,600,000 restricted shares were issued to Erick Mathe (172,800,000), Andrew B. Cambron (134,400,000), Carlos Ramos (20,000,000), and JPC Capital Partners Inc. (2,400,000). The shares to Mathe, Cambron and Ramos completed the balance of the conversion shares authorized pursuant to the Agreement and Plan of Acquisition dated November 24, 2004. JPC Capital provided investment banking services to the Company.
Mathe's shares of 68,750,000 (on the form 144) and 172,800,000 amount to 241,550,000. After the 1:300 reverse split (in March? or so of 2006) he would have had 805,167 shares, which agrees with the number by LYJN. You said that LYJN said these were cycled in 2005. It is more reasonable to conclude that they 'cycled' in 2006 after the 1:300 reverse split. In any case, the number does tie, and I am somewhat reassured by that.
It comes down to trust still, but I am at least satisfied to see an answer to this question.
ted
PaperProphet,
Again, why not detail a few of your arguments very clearly here? The fact that you haven't, and could surely do so very easily and quickly, suggests to me that you aren't being honest. If you are, state what fraudulent activities you suspect or see, and state your case(s).
I would like to see how well they hold water, as I'm still looking at them, with plenty of skepticism, but not much knowledge about the technology itself.
thanks,
ted